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Finances / Finanzen » uk.finance » The Second Great Depression. Starting 2007. Ending 2020.
The Second Great Depression. Starting 2007. Ending 2020. [message #373727] Sa, 18 März 2006 11:09
Crowley  
>From Dr. Bubb at
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=2 6234

http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2006-0318-2.asx

here are my notes on this excellent broadcast :

Really gets going At 14mins:
Debt levels much too high. And Americans have too little savings
How'd we get here
1996---: Greenspan delayed recession by increasing $supply
9/11/01: Fed panicked and printed money

BUT ALL BUBBLES BURST, and Housing will bring the economy down:
Housing has exploded in price, more than inflation.

Adjustable rate loans ending in 2006 and 2007. Most cannot afford it,
because many spent more on housing than they could afford. Many were
betting that houses would go up forever. Refinancing doesnt work any
more. So they will slow down their spending. People will get laid off.
BIG DIFFERENCE: Prices will inflate in this depression. Will cause
chaos. People on fixed incomes will get hurt. Countries using dollars
or owning dollars will want to get out. The dollar will fall, and
interest rates will rise.

Vicious cycle will hit, taking the economy down& down into depression.

Wealth in housing is not liquid, and cannot be easily realised. If many
people move to downsize at the same time, property prices will plummet.
The fall in housing will have widespread impact on the economy.

IT'S A DONE DEAL. Nothing new is needed to make this scenario happen.
It will happen when the consumer stops spending. It can happen faster
or slower, but it will happen.

The fed cannot stop it. Nothing left to reboot the economy.

http://www.amazon.co.uk/exec/obidos/ASIN/1591136881/qid=1142 676114/sr=1-2/ref=sr_1_2_2/203-2713506-8948743
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