| Re: Economic meltdown. The dominos show signs of toppling over ....first Iceland then Ireland ...... [message #376040] |
Fr, 31 März 2006 19:09 |
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In article <1143798527.786889.22320 [at] e56g2000cwe.googlegroups.com>,
crowleyalastair [at] yahoo.co.uk says...
> The stresses strains, and imbalances in the global economic system are
> working their way to the surface.
>
> Iceland was forced to raise it's interest rate .75% to over 11% 2 days
> ago but it's probably to little too late to prevent financial collapse.
> Ireland is in a similiar boat but can't raise it's rates because the
> ECB control them so Ireland's economy will continue overheating until
> it implodes.
>
> The UK and US are also in trouble as are many other countries as this
> report from Fitch Ratings indicates ............
> http://data.cbonds.info//comments/15643/Bank_Systemic_Risk_S pecial_Report_060206_ENG.pdf
>
> http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?act=SF& s=&f=22
>
What a load of twaddle ...................
--
Howard
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| Re: Economic meltdown. The dominos show signs of toppling over ....first Iceland then Ireland ...... [message #376049 ] |
Fr, 31 März 2006 22:07 |
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"Howard9" <fictional [at] email.com> wrote in message
news:MPG.1e9772bab314a3be989bcf [at] news.iol.ie...
> In article <1143798527.786889.22320 [at] e56g2000cwe.googlegroups.com>,
snip
>>
>
>
> What a load of twaddle ...................
interest rates in Iceland are now 11.5%.
the current a/c deficit is 15.5% of GDP.
the currency (krona) has fallen 13% since mid-February.
you think this is OK?
>
>
> --
> Howard
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| Re: Economic meltdown. The dominos show signs of toppling over ....first Iceland then Ireland ...... [message #376058 ] |
Fr, 31 März 2006 22:58 |
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Scott2k5 wrote:
> "Howard9" <fictional [at] email.com> wrote in message
> news:MPG.1e9772bab314a3be989bcf [at] news.iol.ie...
> > In article <1143798527.786889.22320 [at] e56g2000cwe.googlegroups.com>,
> snip
> >>
> >
> >
> > What a load of twaddle ...................
>
> interest rates in Iceland are now 11.5%.
> the current a/c deficit is 15.5% of GDP.
> the currency (krona) has fallen 13% since mid-February.
>
> you think this is OK?
If nothing is done about it then it is not okay but Iceland has in fact
a very robust economy and these things are being watched carefully.
Great investments in hydro and geo-thermal power stations and other
building projects have both caused an increase in trade deficit and
caused one of the worlds=B4 lowest rates of unemployment (1.5%)
The Kr=F3na had been rising steadily for the last couple of years and
was considerably over-valued. This caused hardship for the export
industries and tourism and the fall of the Kr=F3na is much better for
the economy than the artificially high rate that we had around the end
of last year.
So the end result? Yes, it is quite OK.
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| America is the first domino fool, not Iceland...[was Re: Economic meltdown. The dominos show signs o [message #376163 ] |
Mo, 03 April 2006 09:52 |
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Scott2k5 wrote:
>
> "Howard9" <fictional [at] email.com> wrote in message
> news:MPG.1e9772bab314a3be989bcf [at] news.iol.ie...
> > In article <1143798527.786889.22320 [at] e56g2000cwe.googlegroups.com>,
> snip
> >>
> >
> >
> > What a load of twaddle ...................
>
> interest rates in Iceland are now 11.5%.
> the current a/c deficit is 15.5% of GDP.
> the currency (krona) has fallen 13% since mid-February.
>
> you think this is OK?
<snicker>
It's okay by me.
Icelenaders used to wander in to Ireland with no coats on their backs and
no luggage, then decend on Brown Thomas en masse and buy up all the
leather goods in the place. Looked like a pimp's convention going back to
the Burlo or Westbury or wherever.
People who lived off the fat of the land for so long must have learnt a
thing or two about an economy. I suspect they'll turn it around soon
enough. Meantime, please do us all a favour and focus on the real reason
the world economy faces potential disaster;-
The multi-trillion deficit beign run up by the Americans to finance their
foreign adventures under this congenital idiot puppet president.
M.
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| Economic meltdown. The dominos show signs of toppling over ....first Iceland then Ireland ...... [message #377686 ] |
Mo, 03 April 2006 14:19 |
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Michael O'Neill wrote:
> ...........Meantime, please do us all a favour and focus on the real reason
> the world economy faces potential disaster;-
>
> The multi-trillion deficit beign run up by the Americans to finance their
> foreign adventures under this congenital idiot puppet president.
I wouldn't disagree with you there at all. Bush is indeed simply a
puppet of the US military machine, oil barons, unscrupulous companies
like Haliburton, and a Likudnik clique who wormed their way into the
higher echelons of the US administration and have been unduly
influencing it's foreign policy.
The huge global imbalances created by US profligate "borrowing to
spend" particularly on their imperialist wars and their consumer
spending boom dwarfs the problems of Icelandic banks into relative
insignificance. The Icelandic situation though is like the canary in
the mine, a foretaste of much worse to come globally.
BTW perhaps you can try discussing this without throwing in playground
insults and changing headers or is that asking too much of you ?
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| Re: Economic meltdown. The dominos show signs of toppling over ....first Iceland then Ireland ...... [message #377710 ] |
Di, 04 April 2006 00:18 |
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<sigvald [at] binet.is> wrote in message
news:1143838695.309238.53840 [at] v46g2000cwv.googlegroups.com...
Scott2k5 wrote:
> "Howard9" <fictional [at] email.com> wrote in message
> news:MPG.1e9772bab314a3be989bcf [at] news.iol.ie...
> > In article <1143798527.786889.22320 [at] e56g2000cwe.googlegroups.com>,
> snip
> >>
> >
> >
> > What a load of twaddle ...................
>
> interest rates in Iceland are now 11.5%.
> the current a/c deficit is 15.5% of GDP.
> the currency (krona) has fallen 13% since mid-February.
>
> you think this is OK?
If nothing is done about it then it is not okay but Iceland has in fact
a very robust economy and these things are being watched carefully.
Great investments in hydro and geo-thermal power stations and other
building projects have both caused an increase in trade deficit and
caused one of the worlds´ lowest rates of unemployment (1.5%)
The Króna had been rising steadily for the last couple of years and
was considerably over-valued. This caused hardship for the export
industries and tourism and the fall of the Króna is much better for
the economy than the artificially high rate that we had around the end
of last year.
So the end result? Yes, it is quite OK.
****************************
interest rates of 11.5% are never OK.
a current a/c deficit of 15.5% of GDP cannot be OK.
is a weak currency good for a country which imports more than it exports?
why did the treasury in iceland have to suspend a bond auction?
why will US investors not roll over ISK116bn of debt owed by icelandic
private banks?
it would be nice to think that such poor fundamentals would go away.
but, i think we will be talking about iceland again soon.......
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| Re: Economic meltdown. The dominos show signs of toppling over ....first Iceland then Ireland ...... [message #377729 ] |
Di, 04 April 2006 11:28 |
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Scott2k5 wrote:
> If nothing is done about it then it is not okay but Iceland has in fact
> a very robust economy and these things are being watched carefully.
> Great investments in hydro and geo-thermal power stations and other
> building projects have both caused an increase in trade deficit and
> caused one of the worlds=B4 lowest rates of unemployment (1.5%)
> The Kr=F3na had been rising steadily for the last couple of years and
> was considerably over-valued. This caused hardship for the export
> industries and tourism and the fall of the Kr=F3na is much better for
> the economy than the artificially high rate that we had around the end
> of last year.
> So the end result? Yes, it is quite OK.
> ****************************
> interest rates of 11.5% are never OK.
> a current a/c deficit of 15.5% of GDP cannot be OK.
> is a weak currency good for a country which imports more than it exports?
The Icelandic kr=F3na has been overvalued until now, it is not weak.
> why did the treasury in iceland have to suspend a bond auction?
Because it did not like the result, they were just doing a check on the
market and considered it best to wait until the furore dies down. They
certainly did not need the money, the state has been paying up their
loans in the last few years and they have a very high credit rating.
> why will US investors not roll over ISK116bn of debt owed by icelandic
> private banks?
They don=B4t? I think they did. But the competitors to the Icelandic
banks will try and convince you otherwise.
They are wrong, however.
> it would be nice to think that such poor fundamentals would go away.
>=20
> but, i think we will be talking about iceland again soon.......
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| Re: Economic meltdown. The dominos show signs of toppling over ....first Iceland then Ireland ...... [message #377730 ] |
Di, 04 April 2006 11:29 |
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In article <1144066742.993848.35970 [at] i39g2000cwa.googlegroups.com>,
crowleyalastair [at] yahoo.co.uk says...
>
> Michael O'Neill wrote:
> > ...........Meantime, please do us all a favour and focus on the real reason
> > the world economy faces potential disaster;-
> >
> > The multi-trillion deficit beign run up by the Americans to finance their
> > foreign adventures under this congenital idiot puppet president.
>
> I wouldn't disagree with you there at all. Bush is indeed simply a
> puppet of the US military machine, oil barons, unscrupulous companies
> like Haliburton, and a Likudnik clique who wormed their way into the
> higher echelons of the US administration and have been unduly
> influencing it's foreign policy.
>
> The huge global imbalances created by US profligate "borrowing to
> spend" particularly on their imperialist wars and their consumer
> spending boom dwarfs the problems of Icelandic banks into relative
> insignificance. The Icelandic situation though is like the canary in
> the mine, a foretaste of much worse to come globally.
>
> BTW perhaps you can try discussing this without throwing in playground
> insults and changing headers or is that asking too much of you ?
>
I'll take his playground behaviour over your silly Bush rants any day
:-)
The truth is that the US is not creating any kind of huge global
imbalance and if the US people did not spend as they do, then it would
hurt small economies far far more. The fact is that the US can cope with
these kinds of imbalances because of the sheer size and dynamism of
their economy which can grow out of these imbalances in a few years, as
they did during the Clinton era. The US economy is the engine that
drives the whole world economy because the EU, though equally huge, is
no where near as flexible or powerful.
The only serious danger to the economies around the world is the price
of oil and the consequences of not winning the war on global Islamic
terrorism. Otherwise the outlook is excellent, especially for Ireland.
--
Howard
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| Re: Economic meltdown. The dominos show signs of toppling over ....first Iceland then Ireland ...... [message #377761 ] |
Mi, 05 April 2006 00:40 |
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<sigvald [at] binet.is> wrote in message
news:1144142933.296544.56310 [at] i39g2000cwa.googlegroups.com...
Scott2k5 wrote:
> ****************************
> interest rates of 11.5% are never OK.
> a current a/c deficit of 15.5% of GDP cannot be OK.
> is a weak currency good for a country which imports more than it exports?
>>The Icelandic króna has been overvalued until now, it is not weak.
> why did the treasury in iceland have to suspend a bond auction?
>>Because it did not like the result, they were just doing a check on the
>>market and considered it best to wait until the furore dies down.
you cannot be serious!!!!!!!!!!!!! investors were demanding a risk premium
on the debt! that is the market's way of saying they are concerned about not
getting paid back on time
>>They certainly did not need the money,
there is a current account deficit of 15.5% of GDP and they don't need the
money?
come on!!!!!! why do you think they were planning a bond auction? the ONLY
reason is because they need the money!
you should read the papers in the UK. Full of adverts for UK government
debt. our economy is being kept afloat with borrowed money.
spending borrowed money is great fun. excellent fun. it is a real pain in
the a** paying it back though. few governments think about that part of it.
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| Re: Economic meltdown. The dominos show signs of toppling over ....first Iceland then Ireland ...... [message #377762 ] |
Mi, 05 April 2006 00:48 |
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"Crowley" <crowalas1234 [at] yahoo.co.uk> wrote in message
news:1144150832.061399.259800 [at] i39g2000cwa.googlegroups.com...
>
> Excellent. Another Pollyanna. Tumbleweed you are not alone ;-)
>
I think you'll find I have posted very little that is bullish. I simply
choose to take issue with people who pretend to know (esp with great
conviction) what is going to happen in the next year or two, especially when
they cant even predict what will happen in the next week with a single pair
of currencies, let alone the full panoply of the world economy ..but you
are in good company, seems The Times financial editor cant get it right
either :-) and I see that the dollar is now weaker against the pound
compared to last week..where is that collapse for the pound you were both
forecasting?
In summary, my main prediction is that people who predict things tend to be
wrong, except when they predict that people who predict things tend to be
wrong.
Perhaps you'll come back in a few months and tell us how Iceland is doing?
As you have predicted a collapse, my prediction is, that it wont happen. And
as you have used economic statistics and theory to predict this, the same
sort of theory that predicted a sterling sell off last week, I am very
confident you'll be wrong :-)
--
Tumbleweed
email replies not necessary but to contact use;
tumbleweednews at hotmail dot com
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| Re: Economic meltdown. The dominos show signs of toppling over ....first Iceland then Ireland ...... [message #377774 ] |
Mi, 05 April 2006 14:24 |
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Tumbleweed wrote:
> "Crowley" <crowalas1234 [at] yahoo.co.uk> wrote in message
> news:1144150832.061399.259800 [at] i39g2000cwa.googlegroups.com...
>
> >
> > Excellent. Another Pollyanna. Tumbleweed you are not alone ;-)
> >
> I think you'll find I have posted very little that is bullish.
No offence intended TW. The pollyanna reference was just my little
joke. A repost to your 'chicken little' one from a while back :-)
> ............................................................ ...I simply
> choose to take issue with people who pretend to know (esp with great
> conviction) what is going to happen in the next year or two, especially when
> they cant even predict what will happen in the next week with a single pair
> of currencies, let alone the full panoply of the world economy ..but you
> are in good company, seems The Times financial editor cant get it right
> either :-) and I see that the dollar is now weaker against the pound
> compared to last week..where is that collapse for the pound you were both
> forecasting?
Now, now. I never predicted a collapse in sterling did I ? The Times
scribbler's warning was pure drama queen stuff as a meltdown of the
pound last week was never going to happen when the rise in dollar rates
above sterling rates had been signalled, and priced into the markets
long ago. It's *unexpected* raising or lowering of rates that will
alter curency values. As for "my predictions" I expect both the pound
and the dollar to be revalued down in the medium to long term against
several currencies inc. the euro, yuan, and yen.
> In summary, my main prediction is that people who predict things tend to be
> wrong, except when they predict that people who predict things tend to be
> wrong.
Mystic Meg maybe but have you read Jonathan Cainer ? ;-)
> Perhaps you'll come back in a few months and tell us how Iceland is doing?
> As you have predicted a collapse, my prediction is, that it wont happen. And
> as you have used economic statistics and theory to predict this, the same
> sort of theory that predicted a sterling sell off last week, I am very
> confident you'll be wrong :-)
Oh dear. Again where have I predicted a collapse for Iceland ? Look at
my title: "the dominos *show signs* of toppling over...."
I posted a report by Fitch Ratings expressing grave concerns about the
state of Icelands economy particularly with regard to debt in the
banking sector and asked whether this was the 'first domino'. This
provoked a lively discussion in which Sig posted a report from Moody's
appearing to give Iceland a clean bill of health while other posters
and several news articles this week suggested big problems to come.
After all this cut and thrust I can only say "I don't know" whether or
not Iceland's economy faces meltdown but the omens do not look too
healthy from where I'm sitting.
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| Re: Economic meltdown. The dominos show signs of toppling over ....first Iceland then Ireland ...... [message #377777 ] |
Mi, 05 April 2006 15:09 |
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"Crowley" <crowleyalastair [at] yahoo.co.uk> wrote in message
news:1144239876.216798.212450 [at] u72g2000cwu.googlegroups.com...
>
> Tumbleweed wrote:
>> "Crowley" <crowalas1234 [at] yahoo.co.uk> wrote in message
>> news:1144150832.061399.259800 [at] i39g2000cwa.googlegroups.com...
>>
>> >
>> > Excellent. Another Pollyanna. Tumbleweed you are not alone ;-)
>> >
>> I think you'll find I have posted very little that is bullish.
>
> No offence intended TW. The pollyanna reference was just my little
> joke. A repost to your 'chicken little' one from a while back :-)
No offence taken :-)
<snip>.
>
> After all this cut and thrust I can only say "I don't know" whether or
> not Iceland's economy faces meltdown but the omens do not look too
> healthy from where I'm sitting.
>
Oh dear, do you want a cushion for that fence you are sitting on :-)
--
Tumbleweed
email replies not necessary but to contact use;
tumbleweednews at hotmail dot com
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