| Re: Economic meltdown. The dominos show signs of toppling over ....first Iceland then Ireland ...... [message #376056] |
Fr, 31 März 2006 22:54 |
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"Crowley" <crowleyalastair [at] yahoo.co.uk> wrote in message
news:1143798527.786889.22320 [at] e56g2000cwe.googlegroups.com...
> The stresses strains, and imbalances in the global economic system are
> working their way to the surface.
>
> Iceland was forced to raise it's interest rate .75% to over 11% 2 days
> ago but it's probably to little too late to prevent financial collapse.
> Ireland is in a similiar boat but can't raise it's rates because the
> ECB control them so Ireland's economy will continue overheating until
> it implodes.
>
How can they be in a similar boat whan one is collapsing and one expanding?
Anyway, I'm sure this will be as reliable as your last forecast. You cant
get whats going to happen in the next week right, let alone months or years
ahead.
--
Tumbleweed
email replies not necessary but to contact use;
tumbleweednews at hotmail dot com
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| Re: Economic meltdown. The dominos show signs of toppling over ....first Iceland then Ireland ...... [message #376091 ] |
Sa, 01 April 2006 15:48 |
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Crowley wrote:
> Tumbleweed wrote:
> >
> > How can they be in a similar boat whan one is collapsing and one expanding?
>
> Didn't you bother to read the report I linked to : quote .........
> "Six countries (previously 2) now exhibit the highest level of
> macro-prudential vulnerability (MP1 3) Of these Iceland is the most
> extreme case, with huge credit growth amd major real exchange rate,
> equity and property price increases. The picture in Ireland is
> *similiar in nature* though not in degree........"
> http://data.cbonds.info//comments/15643/Bank_Systemic_Risk_S pecial_Report_060206_ENG.pdf
>
> Geddit ? That's why they're in the 'same boat'....... only difference
> being that Iceland has already fallen overboard and is in danger of
> drowning while Ireland is yet to fall in, but fall in it will though it
> doesn't seem to realise it yet as the borrow-to-spend frenzy is still
> continuing.
Iceland is nowhere near an economic collapse, the economy is in fact
quite good and the currency has just been stabilising itself after
having been over-rated for the last year or so.
The Icelandic banks are operating abroad for ca 70% of their income so
it is only natural that most of their borrowing is done abroad and you
cannot include money that the banks borrow abroad in the total national
debt of Iceland (as most of that money is being spent abroad by the
foreign branches of the banks)
If you exclude the foreign debt of the banks then the picture looks
actually very different.
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| Re: Economic meltdown. The dominos show signs of toppling over ....first Iceland then Ireland ...... [message #376100 ] |
Sa, 01 April 2006 19:00 |
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Crowley wrote:
> sigvald [at] binet.is wrote:
> > Iceland is nowhere near an economic collapse, the economy is in fact
> > quite good and the currency has just been stabilising itself after
> > having been over-rated for the last year or so.
> > The Icelandic banks are operating abroad for ca 70% of their income so
> > it is only natural that most of their borrowing is done abroad and you
> > cannot include money that the banks borrow abroad in the total national
> > debt of Iceland (as most of that money is being spent abroad by the
> > foreign branches of the banks)
> > If you exclude the foreign debt of the banks then the picture looks
> > actually very different.
>
> I think you are right to identify the profligate spending overseas as
> the bulk of the problem.
Yes, and it is the banks that are operating internationally so it is
not a part of the Icelandic economy. Most of the borrowing done by the
public is to buy property.
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| Re: Economic meltdown. The dominos show signs of toppling over ....first Iceland then Ireland ...... [message #376105 ] |
Sa, 01 April 2006 20:59 |
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"Crowley" <crowleyalastair [at] yahoo.co.uk> wrote in message
news:1143883807.708656.310930 [at] e56g2000cwe.googlegroups.com...
>
> Tumbleweed wrote:
>>
>> How can they be in a similar boat whan one is collapsing and one
>> expanding?
>
> Didn't you bother to read the report I linked to : quote .........
ROFL!!! Of course not. I had to rearrange my sock draw.
BTW, The Times reports today that Japanese economy is booming!
--
Tumbleweed
email replies not necessary but to contact use;
tumbleweednews at hotmail dot com
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| Re: Economic meltdown. The dominos show signs of toppling over ....first Iceland then Ireland ...... [message #376151 ] |
So, 02 April 2006 22:15 |
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Crowley wrote:
> sigvald [at] binet.is wrote:
> .
>
> > Crowley wrote:
> > > sigvald [at] binet.is wrote:
> > > > Iceland is nowhere near an economic collapse, the economy is in fa=
ct
> > > > quite good and the currency has just been stabilising itself after
> > > > having been over-rated for the last year or so.
> > > > The Icelandic banks are operating abroad for ca 70% of their income=
so
> > > > it is only natural that most of their borrowing is done abroad and =
you
> > > > cannot include money that the banks borrow abroad in the total nati=
onal
> > > > debt of Iceland (as most of that money is being spent abroad by the
> > > > foreign branches of the banks)
> > > > If you exclude the foreign debt of the banks then the picture looks
> > > > actually very different.
> > >
> > > I think you are right to identify the profligate spending overseas as
> > > the bulk of the problem.
> >
> > Yes, and it is the banks that are operating internationally so it is
> > not a part of the Icelandic economy. Most of the borrowing done by the
> > public is to buy property.
>
> Sig. Another gloomy piece out today on the Icelandic economy. What's
> your take on this ? Is it mainly a problem for Iceland's banks or could
> it impinge on the rest of the economy ....
Just read what the only Icelander quoted, Sigur=F0ur Bj=F6rnsson of
Kaup=FEing banki, says.
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| Re: Economic meltdown. The dominos show signs of toppling over ....first Iceland then Ireland ...... [message #376156 ] |
So, 02 April 2006 23:00 |
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sigvald [at] binet.is wrote:
..
> Crowley wrote:
> > sigvald [at] binet.is wrote:
> > .
> >
> > > Crowley wrote:
> > > > sigvald [at] binet.is wrote:
> > > > > Iceland is nowhere near an economic collapse, the economy is in =
fact
> > > > > quite good and the currency has just been stabilising itself after
> > > > > having been over-rated for the last year or so.
> > > > > The Icelandic banks are operating abroad for ca 70% of their inco=
me so
> > > > > it is only natural that most of their borrowing is done abroad an=
d you
> > > > > cannot include money that the banks borrow abroad in the total na=
tional
> > > > > debt of Iceland (as most of that money is being spent abroad by t=
he
> > > > > foreign branches of the banks)
> > > > > If you exclude the foreign debt of the banks then the picture loo=
ks
> > > > > actually very different.
> > > >
> > > > I think you are right to identify the profligate spending overseas =
as
> > > > the bulk of the problem.
> > >
> > > Yes, and it is the banks that are operating internationally so it is
> > > not a part of the Icelandic economy. Most of the borrowing done by the
> > > public is to buy property.
> >
> > Sig. Another gloomy piece out today on the Icelandic economy. What's
> > your take on this ? Is it mainly a problem for Iceland's banks or could
> > it impinge on the rest of the economy ....
>
> Just read what the only Icelander quoted, Sigur=F0ur Bj=F6rnsson of
> Kaup=FEing banki, says.
Sorry sig but there's a surfeit of gloom about Iceland's economy at
the moment. Here's David McWilliams view in todays Irish Business Post
with a tip for Irish investors too .....
http://www.thepost.ie/post/pages/p/story.aspx-qqqt=3DDAVID%2 0McWilliams-qqq=
s=3Dcommentandanalysis-qqqid=3D13108-qqqx=3D1.asp
"This week, Iceland is in crisis. It is on the brink of a currency
collapse, money is flowing out, its banks are finding it difficult to
keep credit lines open, and an Asian-style crisis appears
imminent..........."
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| Re: Economic meltdown. The dominos show signs of toppling over ....first Iceland then Ireland ...... [message #376159 ] |
Mo, 03 April 2006 01:26 |
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Crowley wrote:
> > > Sig. Another gloomy piece out today on the Icelandic economy. What's
> > > your take on this ? Is it mainly a problem for Iceland's banks or cou=
ld
> > > it impinge on the rest of the economy ....
> >
> > Just read what the only Icelander quoted, Sigur=F0ur Bj=F6rnsson of
> > Kaup=FEing banki, says.
>
> Sorry sig but there's a surfeit of gloom about Iceland's economy at
> the moment. Here's David McWilliams view in todays Irish Business Post
> with a tip for Irish investors too .....
>
> http://www.thepost.ie/post/pages/p/story.aspx-qqqt=3DDAVID%2 0McWilliams-q=
qqs=3Dcommentandanalysis-qqqid=3D13108-qqqx=3D1.asp
> "This week, Iceland is in crisis. It is on the brink of a currency
> collapse, money is flowing out, its banks are finding it difficult to
> keep credit lines open, and an Asian-style crisis appears
> imminent..........."
Well, nothing has changed here on this end at least, everyone is very
surprised how a small correction on the value of the kr=F3na and an
increase in interest rates is interpreted by those people as a crisis,
there is nothing of that sort going on at all.
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| Re: Economic meltdown. The dominos show signs of toppling over ....first Iceland then Ireland ...... [message #376161 ] |
Mo, 03 April 2006 07:58 |
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Crowley wrote:
> Sig. Another gloomy piece out today on the Icelandic economy. What's
> your take on this ? Is it mainly a problem for Iceland's banks or could
> it impinge on the rest of the economy ....
>
> http://www.timesonline.co.uk/newspaper/0,,176-2113958,00.htm l
> The Sunday Times April 02, 2006
There is a huge amount of money around at the moment looking for somewhere
to invest, so I don't think it will present an immediate problem.
In the longer term, if similar things start happening elsewhere, it will.
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| Re: Economic meltdown. The dominos show signs of toppling over ....firstIceland then Ireland ...... [message #376165 ] |
Mo, 03 April 2006 10:43 |
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Crowley wrote:
> "This week, Iceland is in crisis. It is on the brink of a currency
> collapse, money is flowing out, its banks are finding it difficult to
> keep credit lines open, and an Asian-style crisis appears
> imminent...........
I liked the Economist's comment about the Icelandic crisis:
"small earthquake, few hurt".
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| Re: Economic meltdown. The dominos show signs of toppling over ....first Iceland then Ireland ...... [message #377684 ] |
Mo, 03 April 2006 14:05 |
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sigvald [at] binet.is wrote:
> Well, nothing has changed here on this end at least, everyone is very
> surprised how a small correction on the value of the kr=F3na and an
> increase in interest rates is interpreted by those people as a crisis,
> there is nothing of that sort going on at all.
You may be right Sig but it's certainly being interpreted as a crisis
in the financial pages over here.
Another day, another obituary for the Icelandic economy. This one's
from today's Guardian and the author even takes my analogy of 'dominos
toppling over' ...........
"Hot money leaving a cold climate could signal the big freeze
Ashley Seager
Monday April 3, 2006
The Guardian
http://business.guardian.co.uk/story/0,,1745379,00.html
It may just be a chilly island close to the Arctic Circle with a
population barely above 300,000 and fish its main export - but it could
end up cutting the value of your home and your share portfolio.
Events in and around the Icelandic economy, culminating last Thursday
in a further interest rate rise from its central bank, may be the first
sign of problems in global financial markets with unpleasant
consequences for all of us................continued ...."
The article even ends with a comment on the possible effects of all
this on the UK housing market .........
"The strange thing is that Iceland could eventually trigger a sharp
slowdown in Britain's housing market," says Mr Jessop.
Cue Tumbleweed aka pollyanna to tell us it's all nonsense and
everything's just fine and dandy really :-)
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| Re: Economic meltdown. The dominos show signs of toppling over ....first Iceland then Ireland ...... [message #377740 ] |
Di, 04 April 2006 18:42 |
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Crowley wrote:
> sigvald [at] binet.is wrote:
> > Well, nothing has changed here on this end at least, everyone is very
> > surprised how a small correction on the value of the kr=F3na and an
> > increase in interest rates is interpreted by those people as a crisis,
> > there is nothing of that sort going on at all.
>
> You may be right Sig but it's certainly being interpreted as a crisis
> in the financial pages over here.
This is a link to the last Moody=B4s report:
http://www.mbl.is/media/11/411.pdf
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