Bookmarks

Yahoo Gmail Google Facebook Delicious Twitter Reddit Stumpleupon Myspace Digg

Search queries

wwwchildsexcom, conradelektronik detektiv anwesend?, pro vorsorge plus 4u liberty Europe fonds, einkommensteuervorauszahlung in skr03 buchen, einkommensteuer vorauszahlung buchen skr 04, was bedeutet über eine etwaige verrechnung des restguthabens mit gegenansprüchen erhalten sie eine besondere mitteilung, daumenschiene auto fahren, bverwverfg, steuerbescheid verrechnung des restguthabens mit gegenabsprüchen, verzugszinsen deliktsrecht

Links

XODOX
Impressum

#1: bearx & david tice

Posted on 2006-03-10 16:35:47 by Sanjay

I enjoy the commentary over at Prudent Bear. But are there
funds properly managed?

2000 +30.47%
2001 +7.36%
2002 +62.87%
2003 -10.44%
2004 -14.3%
2005 +2.02%

It seems like David Tice did an excellent job of shorting for 2
of the 3yrs of the bear market (2000-2003). Kept shorting when
the bull market started in Oct 2002 & somehow managed to break
even in 2005 (the fund has a 1.86% management fee so the 2% gain
is pretty much wiped out).

From what I've read it isn't a straight inverse fund - it's managed.

What is the point of this fund? To break even during bull cycles
and profit during bear cycles?

Is it to be used like a rydex/profunds reverse index fund? It's
not a straight fund.

Just looks like a confused product offering to me.

Report this message

#2: Re: bearx & david tice

Posted on 2006-03-10 17:30:45 by Jun_Yu

> Sanjay wrote:
> It seems like David Tice did an excellent job of shorting for 2
> of the 3yrs of the bear market (2000-2003). Kept shorting when
> the bull market started in Oct 2002 & somehow managed to break
> even in 2005 (the fund has a 1.86% management fee so the 2% gain
> is pretty much wiped out).

You might want check prospectus but I think its mandate is to short
sectors manager thinks are "overpriced". Not "overbought" but
"overpriced".


> Is it to be used like a rydex/profunds reverse index fund?

IMO No.

Report this message

#3: Re: bearx & david tice

Posted on 2006-03-10 18:06:58 by sdlitvin

Sanjay wrote:
> I enjoy the commentary over at Prudent Bear. But are there
> funds properly managed?
>
> 2000 +30.47%
> 2001 +7.36%
> 2002 +62.87%
> 2003 -10.44%
> 2004 -14.3%
> 2005 +2.02%
>
> It seems like David Tice did an excellent job of shorting for 2
> of the 3yrs of the bear market (2000-2003). Kept shorting when
> the bull market started in Oct 2002 & somehow managed to break
> even in 2005 (the fund has a 1.86% management fee so the 2% gain
> is pretty much wiped out).
>
> From what I've read it isn't a straight inverse fund - it's managed.
>
> What is the point of this fund? To break even during bull cycles
> and profit during bear cycles?

No. The purpose of this fund is to do well in a long-term secular-bear
market caused by stagflation, NOT a shorter-term cyclical bear market only.

Tice believes, and so do I, that we are in a decade-long period of
disappointing returns in the U.S. stock market, comparable to the
1970's. With stagflation being the culprit in both. There were bull
markets even in the period 1969-1982 but the bear markets were so severe
that the entire period was net bearish.

Tice's strategy is not only to short the U.S. stock market, but to go
long on the gold market.


> Just looks like a confused product offering to me.

Prudent Bear would have been a superb fund in the aforementioned period
1969-1982. Check out how well gold did till 1980.

Tice is betting that history is now repeating itself.


--
Steven D. Litvintchouk
Email: <a href="mailto:sdlitvin&#64;earthlinkNOSPAM.net" target="_blank">sdlitvin&#64;earthlinkNOSPAM.net</a>

Remove the NOSPAM before replying to me.

Report this message

#4: Re: bearx & david tice

Posted on 2006-03-10 18:25:04 by Loose On the Lead

Jun_Yu wrote:
&gt; You might want check prospectus but I think its mandate is to short
&gt; sectors manager thinks are &quot;overpriced&quot;. Not &quot;overbought&quot; but
&gt; &quot;overpriced&quot;.

That's correct. You can think of BEARX as a very aggressive value
fund. It's not designed to capture short-term swings.

The fund is required to be net short if the yield on the market (S&amp;P
500?) is less than 3 percent. If the yield is greater than 6 percent,
the fund must be net long. In between, it's at the manager's
discretion.

Darin

Report this message

#5: Re: bearx & david tice

Posted on 2006-03-10 18:48:39 by Flasherly

Sanjay wrote:

&gt; From what I've read it isn't a straight inverse fund - it's managed.
&gt;
&gt; What is the point of this fund? To break even during bull cycles
&gt; and profit during bear cycles?
&gt;
&gt; Is it to be used like a rydex/profunds reverse index fund? It's
&gt; not a straight fund.
&gt;
&gt; Just looks like a confused product offering to me.

Emphasis is on puts and the short sell, as well as reference indexes.
They're after weighty inverse momentum plays, along with a residual
from their other fund, Global Income. Ideologically touted over an
ambient secular bear market, with gold inculcated from their Global
Income as core component to BEARX, management strategy appears to
involve a twofold approach: a) indiscriminately to short equities
through a high-valuation market, whereas b) during low valuations, a
shift will occur to value-oriented equities. The fund will
metamorphoses to long or short positions within the latter precedent,
as domestically biased from historic market valuation, while during an
interim, managerial discretion appropriates between the two objectives,
as fit.

I think I lost about about half what BEARX returned in 2002, which
certainly confused me, too.

'They'll hand you back your head.' -2002 newspeak.

Report this message

#6: Re: bearx & david tice

Posted on 2006-03-10 19:04:05 by Sanjay

Steven L. &lt;<a href="mailto:sdlitvin&#64;earthlinknospam.net" target="_blank">sdlitvin&#64;earthlinknospam.net</a>&gt; wrote:
&gt; No. The purpose of this fund is to do well in a long-term secular-bear
&gt; market caused by stagflation, NOT a shorter-term cyclical bear market only.

I agree, we are in a secular bear market. Actually - I think the cyclical
bull ended in the end of February. Perhaps there is one more rally left
but two more hikes and things get ugly.

&gt; Tice is betting that history is now repeating itself.

I agree that with that. It's just the fund would be a better product all around
if he went net long commodities during these cyclical runs &amp; instead of trying
to short certain sectors that he finds to be over valued (like the previous
poster found out).

But thanks to everyone who followed up on this.

-Sanjay

Report this message

#7: Re: bearx & david tice

Posted on 2006-03-10 19:10:50 by Sanjay

Flasherly &lt;<a href="mailto:gjerrell&#64;ij.net" target="_blank">gjerrell&#64;ij.net</a>&gt; wrote:
&gt;
&gt; I think I lost about about half what BEARX returned in 2002, which
&gt; certainly confused me, too.

What did you lose it in? Were you in tech?

If 'bearx' continues to average 5-6% over 5yrs, you'd be better off
in CD's during the secular bear or going net long in some commodities
and following the Elle &quot;buy and hold&quot; mantra for the next 10yrs.

Hussman has a better product IMO with HSGFX.

Report this message

#8: Re: bearx & david tice

Posted on 2006-03-10 19:26:01 by Ed

&quot;Sanjay&quot; &lt;<a href="mailto:sanjay&#64;ksti.net" target="_blank">sanjay&#64;ksti.net</a>&gt; wrote

&gt; Hussman has a better product IMO with HSGFX.

That fund is awful. I don't understand all the attention it gets.

Report this message

#9: Re: bearx & david tice

Posted on 2006-03-10 19:31:16 by Ed

David Tice is a permabear. That's why his fund does so poorly in bull
markets.
He believes all of that doomsday crap that he posts on his website, you
know, the interesting commentary.

I have used that fund in the past with some success but the only thing Tice
had to do with my making money with it is it's easy to see that he believes
there will never be a bull market again and can't understand one when it's
happening.

Some people say you should have some of this fund in your portfolio as a
diversifier at all times. I say, good luck to them.


&quot;Sanjay&quot; &lt;<a href="mailto:sanjay&#64;ksti.net" target="_blank">sanjay&#64;ksti.net</a>&gt; wrote in message
news:pcjQf.11685$<a href="mailto:g91.2617&#64;tornado.ohiordc.rr.com..." target="_blank">g91.2617&#64;tornado.ohiordc.rr.com...</a>
&gt; Steven L. &lt;<a href="mailto:sdlitvin&#64;earthlinknospam.net" target="_blank">sdlitvin&#64;earthlinknospam.net</a>&gt; wrote:
&gt;&gt; No. The purpose of this fund is to do well in a long-term secular-bear
&gt;&gt; market caused by stagflation, NOT a shorter-term cyclical bear market
&gt;&gt; only.
&gt;
&gt; I agree, we are in a secular bear market. Actually - I think the cyclical
&gt; bull ended in the end of February. Perhaps there is one more rally left
&gt; but two more hikes and things get ugly.
&gt;
&gt;&gt; Tice is betting that history is now repeating itself.
&gt;
&gt; I agree that with that. It's just the fund would be a better product all
&gt; around
&gt; if he went net long commodities during these cyclical runs &amp; instead of
&gt; trying
&gt; to short certain sectors that he finds to be over valued (like the
&gt; previous
&gt; poster found out).
&gt;
&gt; But thanks to everyone who followed up on this.
&gt;
&gt; -Sanjay

Report this message

#10: Re: bearx & david tice

Posted on 2006-03-10 20:00:33 by Sanjay

Ed &lt;<a href="mailto:friday&#64;fishinthe.net" target="_blank">friday&#64;fishinthe.net</a>&gt; wrote:
&gt; &quot;Sanjay&quot; &lt;<a href="mailto:sanjay&#64;ksti.net" target="_blank">sanjay&#64;ksti.net</a>&gt; wrote
&gt;&gt; Hussman has a better product IMO with HSGFX.
&gt; That fund is awful. I don't understand all the attention it gets.

He's up every year and has outperformed the S&amp;P500. Why is that awful?

I agree with your earlier comments. Tice is a perma bear and that's what
I was wondering - if he let's his outlook negatively impact the returns
of the fund.

I do find the commentary interesting. I don't agree with a lot of it,
but sometimes you learn a thing or two by hanging out with the tin-foil
hat crowd.

-Sanjay

Report this message

#11: Re: bearx & david tice

Posted on 2006-03-10 20:14:40 by Ed

&quot;Sanjay&quot; &lt;<a href="mailto:sanjay&#64;ksti.net" target="_blank">sanjay&#64;ksti.net</a>&gt; wrote

&gt; Ed &lt;<a href="mailto:friday&#64;fishinthe.net" target="_blank">friday&#64;fishinthe.net</a>&gt; wrote:
&gt;&gt; &quot;Sanjay&quot; &lt;<a href="mailto:sanjay&#64;ksti.net" target="_blank">sanjay&#64;ksti.net</a>&gt; wrote
&gt;&gt;&gt; Hussman has a better product IMO with HSGFX.
&gt;&gt; That fund is awful. I don't understand all the attention it gets.
&gt;
&gt; He's up every year and has outperformed the S&amp;P500. Why is that awful?

My money market fund outperformed the S&amp;P500 over 5 years.
Morningstar came out with a new &quot;long-short&quot; category for Hussman, in that
category he's doing well. The facts indicate that his fund is mid-cap blend,
it that category he has been in the bottom 20% for 1 and 3 years.

&gt; I agree with your earlier comments. Tice is a perma bear and that's what
&gt; I was wondering - if he let's his outlook negatively impact the returns
&gt; of the fund.
&gt;
&gt; I do find the commentary interesting. I don't agree with a lot of it,
&gt; but sometimes you learn a thing or two by hanging out with the tin-foil
&gt; hat crowd.

I agree with a lot of it too but over time I've decided that it's best to
ignore it. No one seems to care about deficits, debt. etc. and while he
might manage to pull off the old broken watch trick once or twice in his
career, that's it. We're living in a world of play money, banana republic
stuff. As long as no one is complaining then everything will be just fine.
There was a song about war, the lyrics went something like this: war, what
is it good for, absolutely nothing. Substitute the word 'gold' for 'war' and
that's how I feel about that in spite of it's great performance.

Report this message

#12: Re: bearx & david tice

Posted on 2006-03-10 20:23:45 by Ed

&quot;Sanjay&quot; &lt;<a href="mailto:sanjay&#64;ksti.net" target="_blank">sanjay&#64;ksti.net</a>&gt; wrote

&gt; Ed &lt;<a href="mailto:friday&#64;fishinthe.net" target="_blank">friday&#64;fishinthe.net</a>&gt; wrote:
&gt;&gt; &quot;Sanjay&quot; &lt;<a href="mailto:sanjay&#64;ksti.net" target="_blank">sanjay&#64;ksti.net</a>&gt; wrote
&gt;&gt;&gt; Hussman has a better product IMO with HSGFX.

You know, I shouldn't pick on Hussman so much, he runs the kind of fund I
like to be in. Good risk adjusted returns. They don't have to be great just
positive and better than cash. One of my favorite funds is Tweedy Browne
Global Value, it's not a short-long fund but it delivers returns that I find
acceptable and I could care less what the rest of the category is doing.

What I think I don't like about the Hussman fund is that everyone thinks
it's so great when I feel that it's only ok to good. It could be that I'm
the one that's missing something but I don't think that's the case.

Report this message

#13: Re: bearx & david tice

Posted on 2006-03-10 20:47:46 by Sanjay

Ed &lt;<a href="mailto:friday&#64;fishinthe.net" target="_blank">friday&#64;fishinthe.net</a>&gt; wrote:
&gt; stuff. As long as no one is complaining then everything will be just fine.
&gt; There was a song about war, the lyrics went something like this: war, what
&gt; is it good for, absolutely nothing. Substitute the word 'gold' for 'war' and
&gt; that's how I feel about that in spite of it's great performance.

So you don't think we should abolish the federal reserve, let the free
market determine interest rates and get back on the gold standard?????

What most gold bugs don't realize, is that even the majority of right
wing economists gave up on the gold standard &amp; support the federal
reserve and &quot;paper money&quot;.

And gold bugs also don't like to think about the fact that our federal
deficit as a percentage of GDP isn't that different than other modern
economies.

Marc Faber is my personal favorite gold bug. He actually recommends
that you physically own gold and store it in India or other countries
because the government will confiscate it from you if you don't.

But having said that - Faber makes brilliant calls on which countries
will have positive years &amp; what markets have upside potential.

I like bubbles. I'm getting back into gold in a few months. You should
too Ed, easy money is still money :)

-Sanjay

Report this message

#14: Re: bearx & david tice

Posted on 2006-03-10 20:57:15 by Flasherly

Loose On the Lead wrote:
&gt; Jun_Yu wrote:
&gt; &gt; You might want check prospectus but I think its mandate is to short
&gt; &gt; sectors manager thinks are &quot;overpriced&quot;. Not &quot;overbought&quot; but
&gt; &gt; &quot;overpriced&quot;.
&gt;
&gt; That's correct. You can think of BEARX as a very aggressive value
&gt; fund. It's not designed to capture short-term swings.
&gt;
&gt; The fund is required to be net short if the yield on the market (S&amp;P
&gt; 500?) is less than 3 percent. If the yield is greater than 6 percent,
&gt; the fund must be net long. In between, it's at the manager's
&gt; discretion.

I wonder how much aggressiveness is in a substantive allure gold has
for high market valuations relative to low returns, were a significance
and dynamic course within a historic range, presumably, to follow...
Appears as if they're swimming along with value mid/smallcaps as added
buoyancy, (a relative value in keeping the weight of gold from dragging
them too far down), waiting for bear season to officially open, when
they'll do pretty much anything, so far as fair for game going down.
Pales as aggressive to valued caps there, doing what they do really
well, as in 2002. Quite the slaughter.

Report this message

#15: Re: bearx & david tice

Posted on 2006-03-10 21:03:27 by Ed

&quot;Sanjay&quot; &lt;<a href="mailto:sanjay&#64;ksti.net" target="_blank">sanjay&#64;ksti.net</a>&gt; wrote

&gt; Ed &lt;<a href="mailto:friday&#64;fishinthe.net" target="_blank">friday&#64;fishinthe.net</a>&gt; wrote:
&gt;&gt; stuff. As long as no one is complaining then everything will be just
&gt;&gt; fine.
&gt;&gt; There was a song about war, the lyrics went something like this: war,
&gt;&gt; what
&gt;&gt; is it good for, absolutely nothing. Substitute the word 'gold' for 'war'
&gt;&gt; and
&gt;&gt; that's how I feel about that in spite of it's great performance.
&gt;
&gt; So you don't think we should abolish the federal reserve, let the free
&gt; market determine interest rates and get back on the gold standard?????
&gt;
&gt; What most gold bugs don't realize, is that even the majority of right
&gt; wing economists gave up on the gold standard &amp; support the federal
&gt; reserve and &quot;paper money&quot;.
&gt;
&gt; And gold bugs also don't like to think about the fact that our federal
&gt; deficit as a percentage of GDP isn't that different than other modern
&gt; economies.
&gt;
&gt; Marc Faber is my personal favorite gold bug. He actually recommends
&gt; that you physically own gold and store it in India or other countries
&gt; because the government will confiscate it from you if you don't.

Sure, if it's not buried in your back yard you don't own it. What's that
saying about 'possession is 90% of the law'?

&gt; But having said that - Faber makes brilliant calls on which countries
&gt; will have positive years &amp; what markets have upside potential.
&gt;
&gt; I like bubbles. I'm getting back into gold in a few months. You should
&gt; too Ed, easy money is still money :)

I just don't believe in it.

Report this message

#16: Re: bearx & david tice

Posted on 2006-03-10 21:48:51 by Flasherly

Sanjay wrote:
&gt; Flasherly &lt;<a href="mailto:gjerrell&#64;ij.net" target="_blank">gjerrell&#64;ij.net</a>&gt; wrote:
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt; I think I lost about about half what BEARX returned in 2002, which
&gt; &gt; certainly confused me, too.
&gt;
&gt; What did you lose it in? Were you in tech?

Lots of Janus.

&gt; If 'bearx' continues to average 5-6% over 5yrs, you'd be better off
&gt; in CD's during the secular bear or going net long in some commodities
&gt; and following the Elle &quot;buy and hold&quot; mantra for the next 10yrs.

There comes a day, that time. Like some poor guy last year that
posted. He'd lost a younger confidence he had for &quot;reading&quot; the market
for fund interactions and was looking for core advice.

&gt; Hussman has a better product IMO with HSGFX.

I've held shares of Hussman - long time since I've heard of it for one
more often mentioned hereabouts. I started with the right
recommendations, but find I like the mechanics, chasing winners and
sector involvement. Until a time I won't and core structures fill a
sensible need HSGFX provides.

Report this message

#17: Re: bearx & david tice

Posted on 2006-03-11 03:10:00 by Gary C

&quot;Ed&quot; &lt;<a href="mailto:friday&#64;fishinthe.net" target="_blank">friday&#64;fishinthe.net</a>&gt; wrote in message
news:<a href="mailto:1213k0kmr6bb5cd&#64;corp.supernews.com..." target="_blank">1213k0kmr6bb5cd&#64;corp.supernews.com...</a>
&gt;

&gt; There was a song about war, the lyrics went something like this: war, what
&gt; is it good for, absolutely nothing. Substitute the word 'gold' for 'war'
&gt; and that's how I feel about that in spite of it's great performance.
&gt;
&gt;

Edwin Star.

Next .........

Report this message

#18: Re: bearx & david tice

Posted on 2006-03-11 10:01:09 by Ed

&quot;Gary C&quot; &lt;<a href="mailto:Clem_Kadiddlehopper&#64;Crazy_Googinheimer.com" target="_blank">Clem_Kadiddlehopper&#64;Crazy_Googinheimer.com</a>&gt; wrote in message
news:YjqQf.47$<a href="mailto:tN3.11&#64;newssvr27.news.prodigy.net..." target="_blank">tN3.11&#64;newssvr27.news.prodigy.net...</a>
&gt;
&gt; &quot;Ed&quot; &lt;<a href="mailto:friday&#64;fishinthe.net" target="_blank">friday&#64;fishinthe.net</a>&gt; wrote in message
&gt; news:<a href="mailto:1213k0kmr6bb5cd&#64;corp.supernews.com..." target="_blank">1213k0kmr6bb5cd&#64;corp.supernews.com...</a>
&gt;&gt;
&gt;
&gt;&gt; There was a song about war, the lyrics went something like this: war,
&gt;&gt; what is it good for, absolutely nothing. Substitute the word 'gold' for
&gt;&gt; 'war' and that's how I feel about that in spite of it's great
&gt;&gt; performance.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;
&gt; Edwin Star.
&gt;
&gt; Next .........

That's when songs were songs, I just can't get into that rap crap.

Report this message

#19: Re: bearx & david tice

Posted on 2006-03-11 16:13:38 by sdlitvin

Sanjay wrote:
&gt; Flasherly &lt;<a href="mailto:gjerrell&#64;ij.net" target="_blank">gjerrell&#64;ij.net</a>&gt; wrote:
&gt;&gt; I think I lost about about half what BEARX returned in 2002, which
&gt;&gt; certainly confused me, too.
&gt;
&gt; What did you lose it in? Were you in tech?

&quot;Flasherly&quot; is a bot that generates random sentences in hopes of fooling
people into responding to it.


--
Steven D. Litvintchouk
Email: <a href="mailto:sdlitvin&#64;earthlinkNOSPAM.net" target="_blank">sdlitvin&#64;earthlinkNOSPAM.net</a>

Remove the NOSPAM before replying to me.

Report this message

#20: Re: bearx & david tice

Posted on 2006-03-11 19:10:32 by Flasherly

Steven L. wrote:
&gt; &quot;Flasherly&quot; is a bot that generates random sentences in hopes of fooling
&gt; people into responding to it.

Wasn't aware of a response to a bear stance, maybe a respective nod for
properity's sake now and then. Mustn't forget the next &quot;big one&quot;.

Robota (n.) [Czech robota &lt; work.]

Report this message