HS Dent forecasting

Anyone have any opinion on demograpic trends for investing? I just read
HS Dent's book about the greatest boom ahead and the following bust.

Re: HS Dent forecasting

<> wrote

> Anyone have any opinion on demograpic trends for investing? I just read
> HS Dent's book about the greatest boom ahead and the following bust.

There is a Dent Demographics fund that's doing pretty badly. It's 5 year
rank is in the bottom 20% of category.

Re: HS Dent forecasting

I just subscribed to his newsletter and it sounds like he has a lot of
formal training and it's hard not to accept his supporting information
and logic. Other than a badly performing fund named after him, are
people skeptical of him and should I be cautious of investing some
money based on his forecasts?

Re: HS Dent forecasting

<> wrote

>I just subscribed to his newsletter and it sounds like he has a lot of
> formal training and it's hard not to accept his supporting information
> and logic.

Most of the supporting info is nothing but projections and speculation.
It sounds good, I agree, but it isn't working out the way he forecast it
would.

> Other than a badly performing fund named after him, are
> people skeptical of him and should I be cautious of investing some
> money based on his forecasts?

I would be skeptical. It's not just a fund named after him, it is fund
professionally managed portfolio using his data to select stocks. I
personally would not invest in the fund nor would I use his forecasts to
selct stocks or funds.

Re: HS Dent forecasting

wrote:

> I just subscribed to his newsletter and it sounds like
> he has a lot of formal training and it's hard not to
> accept his supporting information and logic.

Just like Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz before the Iraqi
war.

> Other than a badly performing fund named after him,
> are people skeptical of him and should I be cautious
> of investing some money based on his forecasts?

See: Paul Wolfowitz after the Iraqi war started.

Re: HS Dent forecasting

Well, from his most recent newsletter he predicts late March to mid-
April the Dow to be at 11,400. After yesterday's gain and the overall
economy's general good health, he may be on the right track, you think?

Re: HS Dent forecasting

wrote:
> Well, from his most recent newsletter he predicts late March to mid-
> April the Dow to be at 11,400. After yesterday's gain and the overall
> economy's general good health, he may be on the right track, you think?
>
The Dow has gone from 10,729.4 close on 3rd Jan to 10,540.93 at
yesterday's close, a 1.76% drop in three months, which hardly suggests
growth. There are only two more weeks to mid April and while the Dow
"could" go up suddenly by 8.1% to 11,400 why should it? What has changed?

Most commentators do not see the US economy as particularly healthy,
with huge balance of payments and budget deficits, a rising oil price,
an expensive and apparently endless war in Iraq and strong competition
from developing countries, China and India, with much lower labour
costs. None of my money is in US stocks either directly or through
funds, afaik anyway.

Re: HS Dent forecasting

<> wrote

> Well, from his most recent newsletter he predicts late March to mid-
> April the Dow to be at 11,400.

We can rule out late March. It's not impossible for the DJIA to rise 900
points in a couple of weeks but I have my doubts.

> After yesterday's gain and the overall
> economy's general good health, he may be on the right track, you think?

Yesterday's gain was meaningless. April is historically a good month for the
markets and mid-April in particular, I still have my doubts.

Remember the title's of his books, "The Roaring 2000's"?
The DJIA close 1999 at 11,497.12, it's 10,518.54 now. That's 5.25 years
worth of roar, a loss of 978.58 points. Mr. Dent seems like a very smart
man, sometimes smart people screw up too.

Look at it this way, if the DJIA does make it to 11,400 by mid-April it will
only have 97.12 point more to gain to get you back to the 1999 close. I used
the 1999 close because the DJIA opened the year 2000 at 11,501.85 and that
would have made Mr. Dent look even worse.

Good luck with your "newsletter".

Re: HS Dent forecasting

wrote:

> Well, from his most recent newsletter he predicts late
> March to mid-April the Dow to be at 11,400. After
> yesterday's gain and the overall economy's general good
> health, he may be on the right track, you think?

Why hasn't he been on the right track with the mutual fund he runs?

More importantly, how much money has he made from his investment picks
rather than from his advisement fees, book and newsletter sales, and
speeches?

Maybe you should have asked for a sample newsletter? ;)

Re: HS Dent forecasting

I will admit, I am becoming more unsure and skeptical. In his most
recent book, The Great Boom Ahead, I believe he specifically saids that
mid-March, 2005 would be the start of the bull market. This was based
on the seasonal cycle (March through August), Presidential Cycle,
Dicennial Cycle (years 5s through 9s in each decade), and more
importantly the merging of the Demographic Productivity and Technology.

In his newsletter, written for March 1, he said the trigger for the
beginning of this bull market would be the lowering of oil price as
well as the strengthening of the Dollar. This both happened yesterday
(Wednesday March 30) and we saw a Dow increase of 135 points and a 1.4%
gain.

For the mutual fund with his name, I don't believe he's the person
actually managing it. Dent currently is recommending the growth
allocation to be something like 25% financial, 25% health care, 25%
international, 25 %technology.

And as for the title of his book, the Roaring 2000s, if what he's
suggesting is correct, the highs of 11,400 in the early 2000s will be
dwarfed by the Dow 38,000 by 2010.

Just throwing information out there for all of us to chew on. =)

Re: HS Dent forecasting

wrote:
> I will admit, I am becoming more unsure and skeptical. In his most
> recent book, The Great Boom Ahead, I believe he specifically saids that
> mid-March, 2005 would be the start of the bull market. This was based
> on the seasonal cycle (March through August), Presidential Cycle,
> Dicennial Cycle (years 5s through 9s in each decade), and more
> importantly the merging of the Demographic Productivity and Technology.
>
> In his newsletter, written for March 1, he said the trigger for the
> beginning of this bull market would be the lowering of oil price as
> well as the strengthening of the Dollar. This both happened yesterday
> (Wednesday March 30) and we saw a Dow increase of 135 points and a 1.4%
> gain.
>
> For the mutual fund with his name, I don't believe he's the person
> actually managing it. Dent currently is recommending the growth
> allocation to be something like 25% financial, 25% health care, 25%
> international, 25 %technology.
>
> And as for the title of his book, the Roaring 2000s, if what he's
> suggesting is correct, the highs of 11,400 in the early 2000s will be
> dwarfed by the Dow 38,000 by 2010.
>
> Just throwing information out there for all of us to chew on. =)
>
Since last November the Dow has been in a "trading range", to use TA
jargon, from 10,400 to 10,900. The chances are that in two weeks time it
will still be in the middle of this, say 10,650, + or - 250.

There, I have gone further than Dent and put in error bounds too! And
you got this prediction free, without having to buy a book.

I can't also see what Dent's seasonal cycle is supposed to be. The old
saying is "Sell in May and go away, buy in on St Swithun's day". This
means sell on May 1st and buy again on Nov. 1st and back-tests pretty
well. Dent's "march through August" season is unlikely to see any gains,
from this. Not that I believe in cycles or timing or TA, of course :-)

Re: HS Dent forecasting

wrote:
> I will admit, I am becoming more unsure and skeptical. In his most
> recent book, The Great Boom Ahead, I believe he specifically saids
that
> mid-March, 2005 would be the start of the bull market. This was based
> on the seasonal cycle (March through August), Presidential Cycle,
> Dicennial Cycle (years 5s through 9s in each decade), and more
> importantly the merging of the Demographic Productivity and
Technology.
>
> In his newsletter, written for March 1, he said the trigger for the
> beginning of this bull market would be the lowering of oil price as
> well as the strengthening of the Dollar. This both happened yesterday
> (Wednesday March 30) and we saw a Dow increase of 135 points and a
1.4%
> gain.
>
> For the mutual fund with his name, I don't believe he's the person
> actually managing it. Dent currently is recommending the growth
> allocation to be something like 25% financial, 25% health care, 25%
> international, 25 %technology.
>
> And as for the title of his book, the Roaring 2000s, if what he's
> suggesting is correct, the highs of 11,400 in the early 2000s will be
> dwarfed by the Dow 38,000 by 2010.
>
> Just throwing information out there for all of us to chew on. =)

Re: HS Dent forecasting

I don't believe Seasonal Cycle or(some of these other cycles)is a new
discovery of Dent's. I think many other analysts and many business
people use it. An example is for a business owner of a small
construction company knows that probably the rainy Fall and cold
Winters are off peak months for construction projects and Spring and
warmer weather Summers are their busiest times. What Dent pointed out
with the investing Seasonal Cycle is, I guess there are accounting
reasons for investors to consider like I believe it's in August where
many fund managers dump their lower performing stocks for some tax
reporting reason and the result is in August there is a general
sell-off that is statistically measureable.

As for the prediction of 10,650 +/- 250 by let's say April 15, we'll
keep our eyes on it

Re: HS Dent forecasting

OK, I just read the newest release of Dent's newletter (April) and even
he is pushing back the bull market to after summer because of oil.

Re: HS Dent forecasting

wrote:
> OK, I just read the newest release of Dent's newletter (April) and even
> he is pushing back the bull market to after summer because of oil.
>
So he changes the forecast to fit the facts as he goes along! Why did he
not predict higher oil prices and their effects himself as part of his
earlier prediction?

The fact is that like the rest of us Dent does not know what will happen
in the future.

Re: HS Dent forecasting

wrote:

> OK, I just read the newest release of Dent's newletter (April) and
even
> he is pushing back the bull market to after summer because of oil.

He's practicing the old addage, "If you forecast, forecast often."

My own forecasts have always been perfect, excepting for unforseen
circumstances.

Re: HS Dent forecasting

wrote:

>I will admit, I am becoming more unsure and skeptical.

>In his newsletter, written for March 1, he said the
>trigger for the beginning of this bull market would be
>the lowering of oil price as well as the strengthening
>of the Dollar. This both happened yesterday (Wednesday
>March 30) and we saw a Dow increase of 135 points and a
>1.4% gain.

That gain was due to economic growth for the first quarter being slower
than previously thought and the price of oil dropping.

>For the mutual fund with his name, I don't believe he's
>the person actually managing it.

He's listed in the fund's name and as a sub-adviser.

>Dent currently is recommending the growth allocation to be
>something like 25% financial, 25% health care, 25%
>international, 25 %technology.

The typical dart-throwing, blindfolded monkey's portfolio has performed
better, so cancel your subscription to Dent's newsletter and use the
money to pay for admission to your local zoo.

>And as for the title of his book, the Roaring 2000s, if
>what he's suggesting is correct,

....it would be pure luck.

>the highs of 11,400 in the early 2000s will be dwarfed by the
>Dow 38,000 by 2010.

That would be an annual increase of about 13%, or more than its
historical long-term 10-12% yearly return with dividends included.
Dividends have contributed roughly half of that return.

Re: HS Dent forecasting

I'm losing faith and in his April newsletter even he sounds a little
"lost"

Re: HS Dent forecasting

Thank you. I'm currently reading Peter Lynch's mutual fund book and he
points out that picking stocks and predicting the market is so
unpredictable. He even alludes to Dent's theory of the Dow reaching
35,000 in the near future as highly ridiculous and unlikely.