LAT: Hip loftsters will stay lonely, for suburbs still seduce

Hip loftsters will stay lonely, for suburbs still seduce
By Joel Kotkin

Joel Kotkin, an Irvine senior fellow at the New America Foundation, is
the author of "The City: A Global History."

LA Times
August 14, 2005

URBAN BOOSTERS have embraced a new panacea for what ails central
cities, including downtown Los Angeles - residential high-rises and
converted luxury lofts. But like the dot-com boom in the late 1990s,
the downtown residential building craze is based more on hype than on
economic fundamentals. If the announced projects ever get built, many
cities will be stuck with a glut of overpriced housing when market
fundamentals reassert themselves.

The roots of today's lofty delusions lie in the global property boom.
Propelled by low interest rates and a lack of attractive investment
alternatives, individuals and institutions are sinking their money into
property. This has created both opportunities and foolish speculation.
Central-city areas need more housing, but the way developers are
building defies economic and demographic forces. For decades, the vast
majority of net employment growth nationwide occurred in the suburbs.
Since 1969, New York City, the nation's premier downtown, has not
created a single net new job.

During the dot-com and stock market bubbles, ambitious young people,
lured by the promise of money and perceived opportunities, flocked to
central cities. Manhattan, San Francisco, Boston and Portland, Ore.,
were poised to become the pulsing heart of the U.S. economy.

After the 2000 market crash, most cities lost jobs, including
high-paying ones in financial and business services. Office vacancy
rates soared, and developers quickly shelved plans for new office
towers. This helped spark the downtown housing boom as builders
converted under-occupied office space into apartments and condos. With
corporate headquarters and entrepreneurial companies still moving to
smaller cities and suburbs, many big cities have bet their futures on
becoming lifestyle, tourism and entertainment centers.

The development of residential communities around the new downtown
cultural and entertainment venues is an essential part of this new
urban economic strategy. Downtown residents would provide the kind of
"24/7" street presence that makes places such as Manhattan so appealing
to tourists, artists and rich people.

To fill reconverted offices as well as new towers, developers and urban
planners increasingly look beyond natural urban emigres - gays,
singles, artists, young couples - to aging baby boomers with suburban
bankrolls. There is not much evidence to suggest that these people want
to become pioneers.

Roughly three-quarters of retirees in the first wave of boomers appear
to be sticking close to the suburbs where the vast majority now reside,
according to Sandi Rosenbloom, a professor of urban planning and
gerontology at the University of Arizona. Those who migrate, her
studies suggest, tend to head farther out into the suburban periphery
or to smaller towns, not downtown.

Rosenbloom says job commitments or a desire to keep close to children
or grandchildren explain some of her findings. About 40% of retirees
expect their kids to move back in with them at some point, according to
one survey. More critical, most boomers are not acculturated to the
density, congestion and noise of inner-city life. "Everybody in this
business wants to talk about the old person who moves downtown, but
it's basically a 'man bites dog story,' " she said. "Most people retire
in place. When they move, they don't move downtown, they move to the
fringes."

The latest census numbers support her view. Many of the cities that
enjoyed a modest and much ballyhooed demographic rebound during the
late 1990s - Minneapolis, Chicago, Boston, San Francisco - have
since lost population. Cities still gaining residents are doing so at a
markedly slower rate. Such traditional population losers as Baltimore,
Philadelphia, Cleveland and Detroit continue to experience
out-migration.

The increase in downtown residents in demographically declining cities
is a bright spot. But it too should not be exaggerated, particularly
compared with growth in the suburbs. If you add up the 2010 growth
projections of the nation's 20 largest downtowns, according to
estimates by the Fannie Mae Foundation and the Brookings Institution,
it does not equal last year's increase in San Bernardino-Riverside
counties.

On top of this, more recent data indicate an emerging weakness in
downtown residential property, including such "hot" markets as downtown
San Diego, London and Sydney. In Los Angeles, according to DataQuick
Information Systems' most recent numbers, values in some areas have
risen steeply, but those in many others have either dropped over the
last year or climbed only modestly. Downtown L.A., for the most part,
is not performing better than other areas of the Southland.

Most problematic is that many buyers of downtown units are speculators,
often using risky interest-only loans to finance their purchases. About
30% of the buyers in downtown San Diego, according to industry experts,
are investors. In such markets as New York and Miami, a large
proportion of buyers are out-of-towners, including many foreigners
purchasing second or third residences. This exposes downtown housing to
far greater volatility than areas where most owners are year-round
occupants. After all, a "flipper" foreign investor or part-time
resident is more likely to ditch a unpromising investment than someone
whose property is also a home. Even if such people hang on to their
properties, they don't fit the 24/7 model resident envisioned by urban
planners and developers. Many owners of downtown residential properties
actually spend much of the year elsewhere, escaping hot weather in some
places and cold in others. This explains why during weekdays, even
successful downtown developments such as Denver's LoDo district are no
more bustling than a suburban strip mall.

Where will all this leave downtowns, including L.A.'s? Bill Witte,
president of the Related Cos., developers of the 25-acre Grand Avenue
Project, said that most of the 20 or so major residential towers
planned for downtown will never be built. Uncomfortable with the
project's grandiose language of creating "a Champs-Elysees for Los
Angeles," Witte foresees a more modest niche for downtown as a
residential center.

In some ways, a sharp drop in downtown residential property values may
be the best thing to happen to downtown long term. Well-heeled
investors and speculators, no longer confident of flipping their
$600,000-plus properties, would have to sell to workers, artists and
young professionals, or rent to students, the kind of people who have
turned places such as Manhattan's Soho into vibrant street-level
neighborhoods.

Even so, don't count on downtown L.A. becoming another Soho. It may
never fully compete with the Miracle Mile, West Hollywood, Pasadena or
the beach as an urban lure. These areas have fewer dead spots created
by freeway ramps, parking lots and government buildings. They offer
more attractive pedestrian streetscapes and more places to go. But the
right policy and reasonable expectations could transform parts of
downtown into an exciting, slightly offbeat alternative community amid
L.A.'s vast suburban archipelago.