market timers?

I was looking at Mark Hulbert's service that ranks market timers
and other people who have investment letters.

According to him, Bob Brinker & Russel's "Dow Theory Letters" are
the 2 best market timers who've called a lot of ups and downs
in the market.

Looking back at the last 30yrs, if someone were to move into bear
funds, cash & other sectors during recessions and corrections and
then gradually move back to regular investments, they'd have a lot
more money on hand.

How does Bob Brinker do it? I've read about how Russel has been somewhat
accurate in doing this, but can't really see much behind how Brinker has
been doing it.

Re: market timers?

john d <> wrote:
> How does Bob Brinker do it? I've read about how Russel has been somewhat
> accurate in doing this, but can't really see much behind how Brinker has
> been doing it.

- price to earnings on the S&P 500
- advance/decline and it's relationship to the dow
- 200 day moving average
- federal reserve policy
- bond yield curve
- inflation
- sentiment on the market
- underlying economic conditions
- etc..etc..etc...

I don't subscribe to Brinker. But I know he called the crash in '87. Pretty
much went to cash in 1/2000 & recommended going long in early 2003. All in
all, that's a pretty good system he's following.

Brinker has done some interviews - I'd google around for "bob brinker + interview".

I remember him saying on his radio show that he felt we're in a secular bear
market with a "cyclical bull" right now.

-Mike

Re: market timers?

john d wrote:
> I was looking at Mark Hulbert's service that ranks market timers
> and other people who have investment letters.
>
> According to him, Bob Brinker & Russel's "Dow Theory Letters" are
> the 2 best market timers who've called a lot of ups and downs
> in the market.
>
> Looking back at the last 30yrs, if someone were to move into bear
> funds, cash & other sectors during recessions and corrections and
> then gradually move back to regular investments, they'd have a lot
> more money on hand.

FYI, there there is an independent timer verification service TimerTrac
that collects and verifies performance of 592 unique timing signals
from most of the professional MT vendors, services and independent
timers out there.



- nr

Re: market timers?

With QQQQ? At one point, it seems, his newsletter advocated 20-50
allocation to that index, some devotees in his subscription base no
doubt would have taken to heart. Except for not being especially
advantageous times, when QQQQ shortly thereafter peaked around 130 per
share before spiraling down to 20 over 30 months. Look hard enough at
any silver lining, I suppose, and you'll inevitably find an obsequious
telltale of peanut husks to follow.

john d wrote:

> How does Bob Brinker do it? I've read about how Russel has been somewhat
> accurate in doing this, but can't really see much behind how Brinker has
> been doing it.

Re: market timers?

Mike Stone wrote:

> john d <> wrote:
>
>>How does Bob Brinker do it? I've read about how Russel has been somewhat
>>accurate in doing this, but can't really see much behind how Brinker has
>>been doing it.
>
>
> - price to earnings on the S&P 500
> - advance/decline and it's relationship to the dow
> - 200 day moving average
> - federal reserve policy
> - bond yield curve
> - inflation
> - sentiment on the market
> - underlying economic conditions
> - etc..etc..etc...
>
> I don't subscribe to Brinker.

Neither do I.
But bond yield curve was one of my main sell signals too. Back in
December 1999-January 2000 (I think it was), we ended up with an
inverted yield curve and I took that as a sign to bail out of the
market. I was right, and I didn't need Brinker's timing model for that.


--
Steven D. Litvintchouk
Email:

Remove the NOSPAM before replying to me.

Re: market timers?

I have been a long time market timer going back to the late 1960s when I got
a book on this subject by Alan Pope. He advocated a variety of long term
market timing tools to be in or out of the markets. When in the market, you
bought a few no-load mutual funds and when you were out of the market you
bought T-bills.

In the old days it was tough to buy and sell mutual funds. To buy a fund
you had to go to the bank and get a bank certified check and mail it to the
mutual fund family. To sell was even more complicated. Back to the same
bank (if it was a National bank) and get your signature certified. Then off
in the mail with a request to sell your fund. Obviously this wasn't
something you wanted to do very often. However it was a good long term
timing system that was done with some difficulty but I was in the market at
the better times and I avoided much of the terrible 1968-1982 secular bear
market.

I was not aware of Brinker until the early 1990s and followed him
occasionally via the radio. He gave a couple of great "gift horse" buying
opportunity calls that caught my attention and really impressed me. So I
started to follow him more carefully and later subscribed to his newsletter.
In 1999 he really blasted the .com stocks saying they were "priced to
perfection." I was looking at some huge profits in WWWFX and the last thing
I wanted to do is to sell that money maker. Then in early 2000 Bob came out
with his statement that his timing model indicated that the potential
profits of being in the market were not worth the risks. I proceeded to set
some tight stops on all my positions and started selling things off. I sold
off WWWFX at $58 and it went on to drop to $15 in late 2002 (it is at $24.30
today). It turned out that his 2000 call to get out was spot on. So when
he gave a get in the market call in March 2003 I jumped in with both feet.
I have been mostly fully invested since then.

Brinker's calls are not perfect. From reading Mark Hulbert he missed the
1997 crash and then told his subscribers to get out after most of the damage
was done, a bad call. In early 2001 he advised his readers that for a
speculation trade to buy the QQQQ I believe around the $60 level. That was
a bad call (which he freely admits) and he has not sent out another
speculation trade signal since then.

In his most recent news letter he outlines the five causes of a bear market.
He doesn't foresee anything to cause a bear market in the near future unless
it is a potential terrorist attack on the USA or a major disruption of the
world oil supply.



"john d" <> wrote in message
news:Md5Ve.14347$
>I was looking at Mark Hulbert's service that ranks market timers
> and other people who have investment letters.
>
> According to him, Bob Brinker & Russel's "Dow Theory Letters" are
> the 2 best market timers who've called a lot of ups and downs
> in the market.
>
> Looking back at the last 30yrs, if someone were to move into bear
> funds, cash & other sectors during recessions and corrections and
> then gradually move back to regular investments, they'd have a lot
> more money on hand.
>
> How does Bob Brinker do it? I've read about how Russel has been somewhat
> accurate in doing this, but can't really see much behind how Brinker has
> been doing it.
>

Re: market timers?

Steven L. <> wrote:
>
> Neither do I.
> But bond yield curve was one of my main sell signals too. Back in
> December 1999-January 2000 (I think it was), we ended up with an
> inverted yield curve and I took that as a sign to bail out of the
> market. I was right, and I didn't need Brinker's timing model for that.

I think he gives away all of his buy & sell signals on his radio show FWIW.

I know he gave the advice to sell in Jan 2000 out for free and to buy later
on for free again.

-Mike

Re: market timers?

Marlowe <> wrote:

> In his most recent news letter he outlines the five causes of a bear market.
> He doesn't foresee anything to cause a bear market in the near future unless
> it is a potential terrorist attack on the USA or a major disruption of the
> world oil supply.

Really? I thought he stated that this was a cyclical bull in a larger secular bear
market.

He gave an interview 2yrs ago saying we're in a bear market for the next 8-15yrs but
that we'll have up periods - we're in one now.

IF he's saying we're in a secular bull market now - there's another inconsistency
you can add to the list.

Re: market timers?

He believes that we're in a secular (long term) bear market that started in
2000 and that the cyclical bull market started in March 2003. As Brinker
has stated in the past, these shorter duration (1-3 year) cyclical bull
markets, within the secular bear trend have been lucrative profit making
opportunities. Although I didn't hear the interview you mentioned, I have
heard him point out that the average duration of the secular bear markets
span a period of 8-15 years. So what he is currently saying is that we have
a bit more to go in this current cyclical bull market run. I don't believe
that he is being inconsistent but it may be more my fault in describing his
opinion.

FYI there is an excellent book "Stock Cycles" by Michael A. Alexander. It
was published in 2000, the year of the great bubble bursting. Very
prophetic book.



"Mike Stone" <> wrote in message
news:wOnVe.14503$
> Marlowe <> wrote:
>
>> In his most recent news letter he outlines the five causes of a bear
>> market.
>> He doesn't foresee anything to cause a bear market in the near future
>> unless
>> it is a potential terrorist attack on the USA or a major disruption of
>> the
>> world oil supply.
>
> Really? I thought he stated that this was a cyclical bull in a larger
> secular bear
> market.
>
> He gave an interview 2yrs ago saying we're in a bear market for the next
> 8-15yrs but
> that we'll have up periods - we're in one now.
>
> IF he's saying we're in a secular bull market now - there's another
> inconsistency
> you can add to the list.

Re: market timers?

Mike Stone wrote:

> Steven L. <> wrote:
>
>>Neither do I.
>>But bond yield curve was one of my main sell signals too. Back in
>>December 1999-January 2000 (I think it was), we ended up with an
>>inverted yield curve and I took that as a sign to bail out of the
>>market. I was right, and I didn't need Brinker's timing model for that.
>
>
> I think he gives away all of his buy & sell signals on his radio show FWIW.

Yes, and I thought it was interesting how many of his own fans
disregarded his sell signal in January 2000. By 2002 he was getting
frantic phone calls from fans asking him what to do because they had
disregarded his sell signal and they were losing a bundle.

That's a great sign of how powerful the buying mania was in late
1999-early 2000. Even Brinker's own fans didn't listen to him when he
said to sell.


--
Steven D. Litvintchouk
Email:

Remove the NOSPAM before replying to me.

Re: market timers?

Marlowe <> wrote:

> opportunities. Although I didn't hear the interview you mentioned, I have
> heard him point out that the average duration of the secular bear markets
> span a period of 8-15 years. So what he is currently saying is that we have
> a bit more to go in this current cyclical bull market run. I don't believe
> that he is being inconsistent but it may be more my fault in describing his
> opinion.

Good to hear. Not that I'm thrilled about being in a bear market, but
I'm glad he's being consistent. That's how I feel about the market
too.

> FYI there is an excellent book "Stock Cycles" by Michael A. Alexander. It
> was published in 2000, the year of the great bubble bursting. Very
> prophetic book.

I'll take a look at it the bookstore. I read Sy Harding's book on market
cycles and it was pretty good.

-Mike

Re: market timers?

Good observation Steve. When I got his 2000 sell signal I phoned several
close friends and relatives and urged them to get out of the market. Later
I found out that none of the ten took my advice. As an example, a reason a
former girlfriend gave me was that she had done so well in the great bull
that if she pulled out now, she couldn't retire early (2004). Today her
portfolio is still down from her 2000 portfolio high. Likewise I got on the
phone when Brinker gave his March 2003 buy and nobody jumped in. Most were
buy-and-hope investors, so they didn't have cash reserves to invest, but
most didn't trust the buy signal. Didn't trust the markets anymore. There
is still a lot of fear out there and that is what may continue to fuel the
cyclical bull.



"Steven L." <> wrote in message
news:gYzVe.654$
> Mike Stone wrote:
>
>> Steven L. <> wrote:
>>
>>>Neither do I.
>>>But bond yield curve was one of my main sell signals too. Back in
>>>December 1999-January 2000 (I think it was), we ended up with an inverted
>>>yield curve and I took that as a sign to bail out of the market. I was
>>>right, and I didn't need Brinker's timing model for that.
>>
>>
>> I think he gives away all of his buy & sell signals on his radio show
>> FWIW.
>
> Yes, and I thought it was interesting how many of his own fans disregarded
> his sell signal in January 2000. By 2002 he was getting frantic phone
> calls from fans asking him what to do because they had disregarded his
> sell signal and they were losing a bundle.
>
> That's a great sign of how powerful the buying mania was in late
> 1999-early 2000. Even Brinker's own fans didn't listen to him when he
> said to sell.
>
>
> --
> Steven D. Litvintchouk
> Email:
>
> Remove the NOSPAM before replying to me.

Re: market timers?

Marlowe <> wrote:
> Good observation Steve. When I got his 2000 sell signal I phoned several
> close friends and relatives and urged them to get out of the market. Later
> I found out that none of the ten took my advice. As an example, a reason a
> former girlfriend gave me was that she had done so well in the great bull
> that if she pulled out now, she couldn't retire early (2004). Today her
> portfolio is still down from her 2000 portfolio high. Likewise I got on the
> phone when Brinker gave his March 2003 buy and nobody jumped in. Most were
> buy-and-hope investors, so they didn't have cash reserves to invest, but
> most didn't trust the buy signal. Didn't trust the markets anymore. There
> is still a lot of fear out there and that is what may continue to fuel the
> cyclical bull.

If you did a poll of this newsgroup and asked people if we were in a secular
bull or secular bear market, I'd bet that most would say "bull market". The
yield curve will invert and most folks won't even blink.

Look at this way, you need to have losers in order to have winners.

-Mike

Re: market timers?

Yeah, but I don't like to see my friends and relatives to be the losers.

>
> Look at this way, you need to have losers in order to have winners.
>
> -Mike

Re: market timers?

The Alexander book is VERY inciteful. I got my copy by direct purchase on
the Internet. I believe it goes through a "publish on demand" service. About
$15. They publish as many copies as ordered. Got it in about 8 days. It is
a completely professional paperback.

The book builds a very complete case with a 200 year lookback and 15 year
look forward.

Bill Ragsdale

Re: market timers?

I have seen him 2-3 times on TV. Honestly, how much can we trust these
signals? Did he give another buy signal after the sell in a few days?

> Yes, and I thought it was interesting how many of his own fans
> disregarded his sell signal in January 2000. By 2002 he was getting
> frantic phone calls from fans asking him what to do because they had
> disregarded his sell signal and they were losing a bundle.
>
> That's a great sign of how powerful the buying mania was in late
> 1999-early 2000. Even Brinker's own fans didn't listen to him when he
> said to sell.
>
>
> --
> Steven D. Litvintchouk
> Email:

Re: market timers?

"Honestly, how much can we trust these signals?" I trust my financial
future with
his signals. Is he infallible? Hell no, so I have to keep my eyes wide
open. I don't
follow his recommended portfolios of mutual funds. I use my own methodology
and
use mainly ETFs and individual stocks. It still beats buy-and-hope.

As long as I have been following Brinker he has only given only one Buy
signal
and that was in March 2003. No Sell signals since then. In May of this
year
he did advise if someone had cash on the sidelines to add these funds
to the market if the S&P 500 falls below 1160. Another astute call since
the index is now at 1231, a gain of 6% while the NASDAQ has gained 14%!


"NewYorker" <> wrote in message
news:ec446$432793cd$4088c839$
>I have seen him 2-3 times on TV. Honestly, how much can we trust these
> signals? Did he give another buy signal after the sell in a few days?
>
>> Yes, and I thought it was interesting how many of his own fans
>> disregarded his sell signal in January 2000. By 2002 he was getting
>> frantic phone calls from fans asking him what to do because they had
>> disregarded his sell signal and they were losing a bundle.
>>
>> That's a great sign of how powerful the buying mania was in late
>> 1999-early 2000. Even Brinker's own fans didn't listen to him when he
>> said to sell.
>>
>>
>> --
>> Steven D. Litvintchouk
>> Email:
>
>

Re: market timers?

"Marlowe" <> wrote

> FYI there is an excellent book "Stock Cycles" by Michael A. Alexander. It
> was published in 2000, the year of the great bubble bursting. Very
> prophetic book.

The rest of the title is: "Why Stocks Won't Beat Money Markets over the Next
Twenty Years". Do you buy it? He's off to a good start, Vanguard Prime
Money Market has beaten Vanguard Total Stock Market Index for the past 5
years, it has also beaten Vanguard Total International Stock Index for the
same period.

Re: market timers?

NewYorker wrote:

> I have seen him 2-3 times on TV. Honestly, how much can we trust these
> signals? Did he give another buy signal after the sell in a few days?

Brinker remained in cash for several years after his January 2000 sell
signal. Generally he doesn't issue frequent signals.


--
Steven D. Litvintchouk
Email:

Remove the NOSPAM before replying to me.

Re: market timers?

Marlowe wrote:

> Good observation Steve. When I got his 2000 sell signal I phoned several
> close friends and relatives and urged them to get out of the market. Later
> I found out that none of the ten took my advice. As an example, a reason a
> former girlfriend gave me was that she had done so well in the great bull
> that if she pulled out now, she couldn't retire early (2004). Today her
> portfolio is still down from her 2000 portfolio high. Likewise I got on the
> phone when Brinker gave his March 2003 buy and nobody jumped in. Most were
> buy-and-hope investors, so they didn't have cash reserves to invest, but
> most didn't trust the buy signal. Didn't trust the markets anymore. There
> is still a lot of fear out there and that is what may continue to fuel the
> cyclical bull.

Yes, but sentiment won't end the *secular-bear* market in which the
cyclical bull is embedded.

I don't know what Brinker thinks, but IMHO, to end a secular-bear
requires a major sea-change in the economy and/or in the world at large.
And those don't happen often.

The secular-bear of the 1930s was ended by World War II. The
secular-bear of the 1970s was ended by the policies of President Reagan,
which represented a major departure from previous economic/geopolitical
thinking.

An example of what could end our current secular-bear would be if there
were a technological breakthrough in energy technology. The advent of
"Mr. Fusion" would destroy OPEC and probably Islamic terrorism along
with it. Without such a major change, I don't know how our secular-bear
market will ever end. We could end up being stuck indefinitely, like
Japan has been.


--
Steven D. Litvintchouk
Email:

Remove the NOSPAM before replying to me.