Invest in Japan?

On September 23, the newsletter Growth Fund Guide issued a Buy signal
for Japan funds like FJSCX and MJFOX.

I'm curious what folks on this NG think of the outlook for Japan at this
time. Has there been a major sea-change over there that could send
Japan into a strong bull market? I thought I saw a change like that a
couple years ago and I got burned investing there.


--
Steven D. Litvintchouk
Email:

Remove the NOSPAM before replying to me.

Re: Invest in Japan?

Recent elections for one. But I've read subsequent bullish reports
that cover a fair amount of the pacific rim. The returns are there,
that they're showing strong can't be argued, so what remains is a
matter of timing and selection in uncertain times. A difficult form to
sustain with the present domestic outlook everyday blowing sweeping
clouds over energy and dampened hurricane repercussions, mortages and
inflation, along with a changing of the FED guard a tangible momentum.
I'd have to agree with you - it may not be a nicer day to be burned
again from a backlash over the present market course. Easy Takings has
left the lunchroom, probably disgusted after watching High Risks eating
at the Plate of Profit, more than a few international sector players
yielded;--they're left milling about during the interim as potential
3-10% downswings occur over a matter of days;--deplorable lunchwagon
behaviour, in my view, that's supportive of hard valuations in need of
a MMA, and not yet another Asian Prancer lumbering down the newsfeed
bullchute. Pass the salt.

Steven L. wrote:
> On September 23, the newsletter Growth Fund Guide issued a Buy signal
> for Japan funds like FJSCX and MJFOX.
>
> I'm curious what folks on this NG think of the outlook for Japan at this
> time. Has there been a major sea-change over there that could send
> Japan into a strong bull market? I thought I saw a change like that a
> couple years ago and I got burned investing there.

Re: Invest in Japan?

There is an article in last week's Investor's Chronicle Magazine
extolling the Japanese market. They say that "Corporate reforms and the
defeat of deflation have lead to investment opportunities in the
Japanese market. ... There are clearly tremendous opportunities for
investors to make positive returns over the long term". Another good
factor is that Japanese voters recently elected a reforming Prime
Minister with a good majority.

On a TA basis the Nikkei 225 index that has been in a trading range of
about 10,800 to 12,000 since about Feb 2004, or even earlier for almost
two years, has broken out since Aug and is now up to 13,600 or up 13% on
the resistance level. Funds like HSBC Japanese Index reflect this. I
recently switched to this fund from HSBC American Index which was going
nowhere and probably down.

It may be another pointer that Japanese car makers like Honda and Toyota
are selling more and more cars while GM is struggling, its bonds are
rated as junk and it may yet seek chapter 11.

Steven L. wrote:
> On September 23, the newsletter Growth Fund Guide issued a Buy signal
> for Japan funds like FJSCX and MJFOX.
>
> I'm curious what folks on this NG think of the outlook for Japan at this
> time. Has there been a major sea-change over there that could send
> Japan into a strong bull market? I thought I saw a change like that a
> couple years ago and I got burned investing there.
>
>

Re: Invest in Japan?

In addition to what the other responders have said, Japan and S. Korea are
now big users of cheaper Chinese labor. Many of their products are being
assembled or made in China and this reduction in labor costs can't do
anything but help their bottom lines.

That said, I don't like the current investing environment and have been
raising cash. When I do buy Japan it's usually a momentum play and I use
JOF, EWJ, and FJSCX. I don't own any of these at the moment.


"Steven L." <> wrote

> On September 23, the newsletter Growth Fund Guide issued a Buy signal for
> Japan funds like FJSCX and MJFOX.
>
> I'm curious what folks on this NG think of the outlook for Japan at this
> time. Has there been a major sea-change over there that could send Japan
> into a strong bull market? I thought I saw a change like that a couple
> years ago and I got burned investing there.
>
>
> --
> Steven D. Litvintchouk
> Email:
>
> Remove the NOSPAM before replying to me.

Re: Invest in Japan?

Steven L. wrote:
> On September 23, the newsletter Growth Fund Guide issued a Buy signal
> for Japan funds like FJSCX and MJFOX.
>
> I'm curious what folks on this NG think of the outlook for Japan at this
> time. Has there been a major sea-change over there that could send
> Japan into a strong bull market? I thought I saw a change like that a
> couple years ago and I got burned investing there.
>
>

Hi Steve,

I actually added to my japan today. I owned EWJ and added to it, but in
another acct I bought some JOF and in my IRA at Price, I bought PRJPX.

I also bought some more silver miners with SLW.

best,

rono

Re: Invest in Japan?

> I also bought some more silver miners with SLW.

Wild times.

Re: Invest in Japan?

Yeppers, try this chart for the past 6 months, even though it's only
been around 3.



cheers,

BTW, I already own CDE & PAAS, and simply liked SLW better than the
alternatives at this point in time.

best,

rono

Re: Invest in Japan?

Ed, I've noticed that those pesky international stocks are taking a
whip'en.

I want to take something off the top of ACINX, but I'll pay dearly in
taxes given that my holdings go back to '94. Then again that's what I
said in '01, and I lost 55% from the '00 peak. My account balance got
almost up to the old '00 balance, and I was starting to have some
negative thoughts. I think that's what caused this decline. Don't
tell neutron that I started it all.

I'm waiting for CEE to get down to 32.33, where I'll scoop it up. Not
sure where to buy JOF. I'll watch the discount to NAV.

Mo

Re: Invest in Japan?

"Maurice" <> wrote

> Ed, I've noticed that those pesky international stocks are taking a
> whip'en.

Everything seems to be getting hit.

> I want to take something off the top of ACINX, but I'll pay dearly in
> taxes given that my holdings go back to '94. Then again that's what I
> said in '01, and I lost 55% from the '00 peak. My account balance got
> almost up to the old '00 balance, and I was starting to have some
> negative thoughts. I think that's what caused this decline. Don't
> tell neutron that I started it all.

ACINX is a good fund, had a nice run but is down 5% just this month, looks
like it will take another hit today. I never let taxes get in the way. I've
heard some 'experts' say that the markets are oversold, if true they could
get even more oversold.

> I'm waiting for CEE to get down to 32.33, where I'll scoop it up. Not
> sure where to buy JOF. I'll watch the discount to NAV.

I can see CEE dropping lower than $30 as energy stabilizes or falls. I'm
betting on lower prices. CEE holds about 45% in energy, 10% of the fund is
in Lukoil. This is also why I think some of the airlines look attractive,
especia;;y AAI and SKYW.

Anyway, back to taking profits. One of the approaches I use in my efforts to
build grown my portfolio is to sell funds that I think are headed lower and
then buy them back at lower prices. This is best done in a sheltered account
but it works in a taxable account as well.

Let's say you sold 1,000 shares of ACINX on the last day of September at
$33.36. You would have $33,360 in your money market fund. Yesterday you took
that money and put it back into the fund, now you have 1,048 shares.

Here's some taxable stuff I sold this month and how much it has depreciated
since I sold it:
LU -6.04%
EFJI -7.16%
EWH, -3.2%
LDF -7.16%
IF -4.27%
PRNEX -4.14%
I had nice gains from all of these. I don't like giving it back. When the
market is uncertain like it is now I don't mind being wrong because that
money is now out of harms way and if these turned around and went higher I
wouldn't care, I already have my piece of the pie.

Re: Invest in Japan?

Ed wrote:

> "Maurice" <> wrote
>
>
>>Ed, I've noticed that those pesky international stocks are taking a
>>whip'en.
>
>
> Everything seems to be getting hit.

That's why I'm glad for the advice I got on Japan from David Wilkinson
and Ronald V. Overton. I'm regarding the very recent dip in Japan as a
good entry point rather than making Japan something to avoid.


--
Steven D. Litvintchouk
Email:

Remove the NOSPAM before replying to me.

Re: Invest in Japan?

"Steven L." <> wrote

> That's why I'm glad for the advice I got on Japan from David Wilkinson and
> Ronald V. Overton. I'm regarding the very recent dip in Japan as a good
> entry point rather than making Japan something to avoid.

Good luck with that.

Re: Invest in Japan?

Steven L. wrote:
> Ed wrote:
>
>> "Maurice" <> wrote
>>
>>
>>> Ed, I've noticed that those pesky international stocks are taking a
>>> whip'en.
>>
>>
>>
>> Everything seems to be getting hit.
>
>
> That's why I'm glad for the advice I got on Japan from David Wilkinson
> and Ronald V. Overton. I'm regarding the very recent dip in Japan as a
> good entry point rather than making Japan something to avoid.
>
>
Japan is down 1.7% today but the Japan Index Fund I am in is still much
stronger than funds invested in the UK, Europe, America and the Pacific.
That won't stop it going down too far though, if they all fall. You
still need a sell criterion. like a stop-loss, an MA to cross, MACD or
something similar.

Don't forget the Nikkei was 40,000 in 1989 and is still only just over
13,000 so B&H is definitely not paying off with this one, even over 16
years. Also, as you have rightly pointed out many times, we are in a
secular bear and can't expect much overall gain for the next 10 years or
so.

Re: Invest in Japan?

Key point - the point. I've been kicked about one too many times for
sticking my nose into that point, of late, so it's a defensive posture
at this point. Short, though. I'm not really interested in buying
anything substantially sustained about the point - other than in
defense of common sense while the FED does what it has to do. Quieter
earnings over the approaching preserve. The gag of sickly sweet 1mnth
Jumbo CDs, instead of Jolt or Moutain Dew, will keep me preoccupied
until then.

rono wrote:
>
> BTW, I already own CDE & PAAS, and simply liked SLW better than the
> alternatives at this point in time.
>
> best,
>
> rono

Re: Invest in Japan?

David Wilkinson wrote:

> Don't forget the Nikkei was 40,000 in 1989 and is still only just over
> 13,000 so B&H is definitely not paying off with this one, even over 16
> years. Also, as you have rightly pointed out many times, we are in a
> secular bear and can't expect much overall gain for the next 10 years or
> so.

What amazes me is how many intelligent people, like Ed, still refuse to
acknowledge that we're in a secular-bear; even though the evidence by
now appears overwhelming to me. By the time they realize it, the
secular-bear will be over and we'll be back in a secular-bull.


--
Steven D. Litvintchouk
Email:

Remove the NOSPAM before replying to me.

Re: Invest in Japan?

"Steven L." <> wrote

> What amazes me is how many intelligent people, like Ed, still refuse to
> acknowledge that we're in a secular-bear; even though the evidence by now
> appears overwhelming to me. By the time they realize it, the secular-bear
> will be over and we'll be back in a secular-bull.

It's the terminology that I don't agree with. Secular bear market with a
cyclical bull market, etc. 2005 has been a banner year for many overseas
markets and there was certainly money to be made.

I am more bearish than bullish at the moment and while not having a
fantastic year it's been very acceptable. It could have done better if I
were more fully invested. On the other hand I've taken profits in many of my
stocks/funds so what happens for the rest of the year is not so much of a
worry. Latin America was a really big winner this year but those countries
are risky and I'm a big believer in the "a bird in the hand" method.

Gold has done ok this year but I don't like anything about gold. I don't
like the reasons people use to buy it. So depressing.

Out of my last 8 sales only one appears to have been sold early. The other 7
are down, some as much as 8%. The one that keeps going higher is AAI
(AirTran) and I had a hunch that it would but wanted to lock in the profits.
If oil goes lower this stock could be very profitable, I also like SKYW
(SkyWest) for the same reasons. JetBlue is going to split 3/2 in December, I
think this stock will be ok too but I don't like it as well as the other
two.

There are always huge problems like energy prices, natural disasters,
inflation, runaway debt, possible pandemic, you name it. How will people
(investors) react to these things? The thing is that big problems have
always been there in some form but life goes on.

If only time were not a factor but it is. The time you have left as an
investor is probably the single most important factor when deciding how or
where to invest. Words like "secular" and "cyclical" are not nearly as
important.

Re: Invest in Japan?

Hi folks,

Dave noted that Japan was down 1.7% yesterday, but neither of my ETF's
reflected this but were actually UP. Note that this is either due to
Fair Market Pricing, but more likely in the case of ETF's, using ADR's
to determine the correct price.

For those that are unfamiliar with FMP, it's a strategy that some in
the fund industry have adopted to eliminate int'l dateline arbitrage -
datelining, for short.

In the past, you could take a day like yesterday and make a sure profit
by buying an int'l fund late in the day. If you recall, the foreign
mkts were all down sharply, but closed before our market had the late
day reversal. This means that they were unable to reflect this upside
bounce and will do so today. Well, if you were able to buy an int'l
fund before close yesterday, you'd have an automatic gain locked in.
Right? Well, not any more.

The industry has adopted 3 strategies to eliminate this practice. The
original was imposing Early Redemption Fees (ERFs) for selling a fund
before a certain set holding period. Normally, 2% fee for less than
180 days. Other houses, like Vanguard, decide to start using Fair
Market Pricing. This is where when this sort of situation occurs, they
GUESS about what the closing NAV should be and correct it later.
Perhaps the best solution is what Profunds (and perhaps the ETF's) do
and that's simply price their funds based upon ADR prices which means
they're pretty much exact and current at any given time regardless of
the home market being closed.

Now, you can still dateline successfully if you are prudent and choose
your times. First you need a fund that only imposes and ERF and
doesn't use FMP. Second, the interday market swing has to be
significant. Third, you need to planning to establish a position that
you can keep for the required holding period. Note that this last
isn't needed if the swing is sufficient to exceed the ERF.

One thing that a lot of folks don't realize is that you can also
dateline in REVERSE. This occurs when you already have an overseas
position established and the overseas market closes UP while ours takes
a late day blood bath. Ah, you can still dump your overseas fund and
if they're not using FMP, avoid the downdraft.

best,

rono

Re: Invest in Japan?

"rono" <> wrote

> Perhaps the best solution is what Profunds (and perhaps the ETF's) do
> and that's simply price their funds based upon ADR prices which means
> they're pretty much exact and current at any given time regardless of
> the home market being closed.

The problem, as I see it, is that there are relatively few ADR's. How does
ProFunds do this?

Re: Invest in Japan?

Ed wrote:
> The problem, as I see it, is that there are relatively few ADR's. How does
> ProFunds do this?

Doesn't look like a relative to this -

Re: Invest in Japan?

"Flasherly" <> wrote in message
news:
>
> Ed wrote:
>> The problem, as I see it, is that there are relatively few ADR's. How
>> does
>> ProFunds do this?
>
> Doesn't look like a relative to this -
>
>

Japan offers 159 ADR's, that is relatively few AND Japan is one of the
worlds largest economies. How would pricing the N225 using these 159 ADR's
amount to more than a guess?
I'm not even sure that all of the 159 are N225 member firms.

It still looks like a relative to me.

Re: Invest in Japan?

Ed wrote:
> "Flasherly" <> wrote in message
> news:
> >
> > Ed wrote:
> >> The problem, as I see it, is that there are relatively few ADR's. How
> >> does
> >> ProFunds do this?
> >
> > Doesn't look like a relative to this -
> >
> >
>
> Japan offers 159 ADR's, that is relatively few AND Japan is one of the
> worlds largest economies. How would pricing the N225 using these 159 ADR's
> amount to more than a guess?
> I'm not even sure that all of the 159 are N225 member firms.
>
> It still looks like a relative to me.

And Germany offers 49, BUT German technology was farmed out
outrageously after WW2, whereas Japan took social subservience to a new
level, as deployed implementation rose second tier to an American
pragmaticism for tinkering. Hell, I don't know, much other than a
general theory of relativity can become strained where Profunds becomes
involved. I bought VPACX.