Where to now?

Once again, for the umpteenth time since the bubble burst, we are hitting
what seems to be a ceiling at 10700 on the Dow. Clearly there is a battle
going on between those who think it can't (or won't) get any higher than
this and those who think dips are a chance to buy in. We seem to have
bounced off this ceiling a couple of times today. Tomorrow may tell us
what's next.

Obviously, no one knows where we go from here but it's always fun to
speculate. As the last time, my feeling is that it will be quite meaningful
if we hold above this level but the more likely outcome is that we will fall
back some.

Still, the economy seems to be chugging along despite all the shocks,
weather and government incompetence that have assailed it this year.

I'm tempted to be bullish.

-herb

Re: Where to now?

"Herb" <> wrote
> Obviously, no one knows where we go from here but it's
always fun to
> speculate. As the last time, my feeling is that it will
be quite meaningful
> if we hold above this level but the more likely outcome is
that we will fall
> back some.
>
> Still, the economy seems to be chugging along despite all
the shocks,
> weather and government incompetence that have assailed it
this year.
>
> I'm tempted to be bullish.

I'm not. Katrina's effects have not been fully felt, in my
estimation. Confidence in government is low. I'm happy
enough continuing to make 3.5% money market yada on a
certain, former S&P 500 index fund position, cashed out at
the last maximum a few months ago, though I am looking at a
certain international index ETF in which to put it.

I am making minor attempts to time with certain blue chip
stocks and am having some success.

Caveat: I am not timing so as to make a living from it.
Hence the blue chips.

Re: Where to now?

In article
<489ef.55714$>,
"Herb" <> wrote:

> Obviously, no one knows where we go from here but it's always fun to
> speculate. As the last time, my feeling is that it will be quite meaningful
> if we hold above this level but the more likely outcome is that we will fall
> back some.
>
> Still, the economy seems to be chugging along despite all the shocks,
> weather and government incompetence that have assailed it this year.
>
> I'm tempted to be bullish.

The market is crazy and any attempt to characterize it is like
trying to divine the intentions and motivations of a crazy man.

Re: Where to now?

sam grey wrote:
> In article
> <489ef.55714$>,
> "Herb" <> wrote:
>
> > Obviously, no one knows where we go from here but it's always fun to
> > speculate. As the last time, my feeling is that it will be quite meaningful
> > if we hold above this level but the more likely outcome is that we will fall
> > back some.
> >
> > Still, the economy seems to be chugging along despite all the shocks,
> > weather and government incompetence that have assailed it this year.
> >
> > I'm tempted to be bullish.
>
> The market is crazy and any attempt to characterize it is like
> trying to divine the intentions and motivations of a crazy man.

If you think the market is crazy then you shouldn't be investing in it.
I think gambling is crazy, I don't "invest" my money be going to
casinos. I think there is a definite logic to the market. No one,
least of all me, is able to divine anywhere close to 100% of how the
market will behave (not even close to 50%). Yet because I think there
is enough data to give me a good read there is where I invest my money.

As to the current market, I think it's way over priced. And the market
action don't speak well either (new high new lows, advanced decline,
that kind of thing). I can't predict what the market will do in the
short term, but it's not a market where I'll be too committed.

Re: Where to now?

Oil prices are the most important determinant of where the market will head;
therefore, I think we are headed for a bull market with Asia doing a little
better than the US market. Notice that Arnold in China.

Dow 11250 by next summer.



"Herb" <> wrote in message
news:489ef.55714$
> Once again, for the umpteenth time since the bubble burst, we are hitting
> what seems to be a ceiling at 10700 on the Dow. Clearly there is a battle
> going on between those who think it can't (or won't) get any higher than
> this and those who think dips are a chance to buy in. We seem to have
> bounced off this ceiling a couple of times today. Tomorrow may tell us
> what's next.
>
> Obviously, no one knows where we go from here but it's always fun to
> speculate. As the last time, my feeling is that it will be quite
> meaningful
> if we hold above this level but the more likely outcome is that we will
> fall
> back some.
>
> Still, the economy seems to be chugging along despite all the shocks,
> weather and government incompetence that have assailed it this year.
>
> I'm tempted to be bullish.
>
> -herb
>
>

Re: Where to now?

"sam grey" <> wrote in message
news:
> In article
> <489ef.55714$>,
> "Herb" <> wrote:
>
> > Obviously, no one knows where we go from here but it's always fun to
> > speculate. As the last time, my feeling is that it will be quite
meaningful
> > if we hold above this level but the more likely outcome is that we will
fall
> > back some.
> >
> > Still, the economy seems to be chugging along despite all the shocks,
> > weather and government incompetence that have assailed it this year.
> >
> > I'm tempted to be bullish.
>
> The market is crazy and any attempt to characterize it is like
> trying to divine the intentions and motivations of a crazy man.

More like a big room full of crazy men all shouting at once. Still, you can
characterize it if not predict its behavior.

-herb

Re: Where to now?

"PeterL" <> wrote in message
news:
>
> sam grey wrote:
> > In article
> > <489ef.55714$>,
> > "Herb" <> wrote:
> >
> > > Obviously, no one knows where we go from here but it's always fun to
> > > speculate. As the last time, my feeling is that it will be quite
meaningful
> > > if we hold above this level but the more likely outcome is that we
will fall
> > > back some.
> > >
> > > Still, the economy seems to be chugging along despite all the shocks,
> > > weather and government incompetence that have assailed it this year.
> > >
> > > I'm tempted to be bullish.
> >
> > The market is crazy and any attempt to characterize it is like
> > trying to divine the intentions and motivations of a crazy man.
>
> If you think the market is crazy then you shouldn't be investing in it.
> I think gambling is crazy, I don't "invest" my money be going to
> casinos. I think there is a definite logic to the market. No one,
> least of all me, is able to divine anywhere close to 100% of how the
> market will behave (not even close to 50%). Yet because I think there
> is enough data to give me a good read there is where I invest my money.
>
> As to the current market, I think it's way over priced. And the market
> action don't speak well either (new high new lows, advanced decline,
> that kind of thing). I can't predict what the market will do in the
> short term, but it's not a market where I'll be too committed.

Do you know what the PE is on the Dow? I don't know but I didn't think it
was too crazy.

-herb
>

Re: Where to now?

Herb wrote:
> "PeterL" <> wrote in message
> news:
> >
> > sam grey wrote:
> > > In article
> > > <489ef.55714$>,
> > > "Herb" <> wrote:
> > >
> > > > Obviously, no one knows where we go from here but it's always fun to
> > > > speculate. As the last time, my feeling is that it will be quite
> meaningful
> > > > if we hold above this level but the more likely outcome is that we
> will fall
> > > > back some.
> > > >
> > > > Still, the economy seems to be chugging along despite all the shocks,
> > > > weather and government incompetence that have assailed it this year.
> > > >
> > > > I'm tempted to be bullish.
> > >
> > > The market is crazy and any attempt to characterize it is like
> > > trying to divine the intentions and motivations of a crazy man.
> >
> > If you think the market is crazy then you shouldn't be investing in it.
> > I think gambling is crazy, I don't "invest" my money be going to
> > casinos. I think there is a definite logic to the market. No one,
> > least of all me, is able to divine anywhere close to 100% of how the
> > market will behave (not even close to 50%). Yet because I think there
> > is enough data to give me a good read there is where I invest my money.
> >
> > As to the current market, I think it's way over priced. And the market
> > action don't speak well either (new high new lows, advanced decline,
> > that kind of thing). I can't predict what the market will do in the
> > short term, but it's not a market where I'll be too committed.
>
> Do you know what the PE is on the Dow? I don't know but I didn't think it
> was too crazy.

Here is a quote from Hussman:

"...the S&P 500 at about 19.5 times record trailing net earnings (the
average historical multiple on record earnings is about 12, regardless
of the particular level of interest rates or inflation)"


>
> -herb
> >

Re: Where to now?

"PeterL" <> wrote


> Here is a quote from Hussman:
>
> "...the S&P 500 at about 19.5 times record trailing net earnings (the
> average historical multiple on record earnings is about 12, regardless
> of the particular level of interest rates or inflation)"

S&P500 was 16.85 going into November.

Re: Where to now?

Ed wrote:
> "PeterL" <> wrote
>
>
> > Here is a quote from Hussman:
> >
> > "...the S&P 500 at about 19.5 times record trailing net earnings (the
> > average historical multiple on record earnings is about 12, regardless
> > of the particular level of interest rates or inflation)"
>
> S&P500 was 16.85 going into November.

Was it "trailing net earning"? Note: **net** earning.

Re: Where to now?

"PeterL" <> wrote in message
news:
>
> Ed wrote:
>> "PeterL" <> wrote
>>
>>
>> > Here is a quote from Hussman:
>> >
>> > "...the S&P 500 at about 19.5 times record trailing net earnings (the
>> > average historical multiple on record earnings is about 12, regardless
>> > of the particular level of interest rates or inflation)"
>>
>> S&P500 was 16.85 going into November.
>
> Was it "trailing net earning"? Note: **net** earning.

It is excluding negative earnings but net earning.
Including negative earnings it was 18.41.

Now, as for your 12 value for average historical p/e.
The average from 1935 was 15.65
From 1988 it was 23.42
From 1996 it was 28.26
These figures are to 3/31/05. Source: S&P Investment Services.
Their estimate for 2005 is 16.89

Did Hussman's number include or exclude negative earnings? What was the date
of his report?

Re: Where to now?

Ed wrote:
> "PeterL" <> wrote in message
> news:
> >
> > Ed wrote:
> >> "PeterL" <> wrote
> >>
> >>
> >> > Here is a quote from Hussman:
> >> >
> >> > "...the S&P 500 at about 19.5 times record trailing net earnings (the
> >> > average historical multiple on record earnings is about 12, regardless
> >> > of the particular level of interest rates or inflation)"
> >>
> >> S&P500 was 16.85 going into November.
> >
> > Was it "trailing net earning"? Note: **net** earning.
>
> It is excluding negative earnings but net earning.
> Including negative earnings it was 18.41.

Which is close to the 19.5 figure,

>
> Now, as for your 12 value for average historical p/e.
> The average from 1935 was 15.65
> From 1988 it was 23.42
> From 1996 it was 28.26
> These figures are to 3/31/05. Source: S&P Investment Services.
> Their estimate for 2005 is 16.89
>

Again, are we talking about trailing net earning?

> Did Hussman's number include or exclude negative earnings? What was the date
> of his report?

Re: Where to now?

"PeterL" <> wrote

> Again, are we talking about trailing net earning?

I answered that.

You did not answer these:
Did Hussman's number include or exclude negative earnings? What was the date
of his report?

Re: Where to now?

Ed wrote:
> "PeterL" <> wrote
>
> > Again, are we talking about trailing net earning?
>
> I answered that.
>
> You did not answer these:
> Did Hussman's number include or exclude negative earnings? What was the date
> of his report?

Read all about it:

Re: Where to now?

response at bottom, where all you posters like to put
them................................
-
"PeterL" <> wrote in message
news:
>
> Herb wrote:
>> "PeterL" <> wrote in message
>> news:
>> >
>> > sam grey wrote:
>> > > In article
>> > > <489ef.55714$>,
>> > > "Herb" <> wrote:
>> > >
>> > > > Obviously, no one knows where we go from here but it's always fun
>> > > > to
>> > > > speculate. As the last time, my feeling is that it will be quite
>> meaningful
>> > > > if we hold above this level but the more likely outcome is that we
>> will fall
>> > > > back some.
>> > > >
>> > > > Still, the economy seems to be chugging along despite all the
>> > > > shocks,
>> > > > weather and government incompetence that have assailed it this
>> > > > year.
>> > > >
>> > > > I'm tempted to be bullish.
>> > >
>> > > The market is crazy and any attempt to characterize it is like
>> > > trying to divine the intentions and motivations of a crazy man.
>> >
>> > If you think the market is crazy then you shouldn't be investing in it.
>> > I think gambling is crazy, I don't "invest" my money be going to
>> > casinos. I think there is a definite logic to the market. No one,
>> > least of all me, is able to divine anywhere close to 100% of how the
>> > market will behave (not even close to 50%). Yet because I think there
>> > is enough data to give me a good read there is where I invest my money.
>> >
>> > As to the current market, I think it's way over priced. And the market
>> > action don't speak well either (new high new lows, advanced decline,
>> > that kind of thing). I can't predict what the market will do in the
>> > short term, but it's not a market where I'll be too committed.
>>
>> Do you know what the PE is on the Dow? I don't know but I didn't think
>> it
>> was too crazy.
>
> Here is a quote from Hussman:
>
> "...the S&P 500 at about 19.5 times record trailing net earnings (the
> average historical multiple on record earnings is about 12, regardless
> of the particular level of interest rates or inflation)"
>
>
>>
>> -herb
>> >
>
----------------------------------------------------------

Here's a quote from Hussein..-

Happy Guy

>
> I am a senior citizen. (ha...ha) During the Clinton Administration I had
> an extremely good and well paying job. I took numerous vacations and had
> several vacation homes. Since President Bush took office, I have watched
> my entire life change for the worse. I lost my job. I lost my two sons in
> that terrible Iraqi War. I lost my homes. I lost my health insurance. As a
> matter of fact I lost virtually everything and became homeless. Adding
> insult to injury, when the authorities found me living like an animal,
> instead of helping me, they arrested me. I will do anything that Senator
> Kerry wants to insure that a Democrat is back in the White House come next
> year. Bush has to go.

Sincerely,
> -
> Saddam Hussein
>
> This email was cleaned by emailStripper, available for free from
>
>

Re: Where to now?

Herb wrote:

>
> I'm tempted to be bullish.

On the broad market, I'm bearish for now.
After rising steadily in the first half of the year, the Conference
Board's Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) declined for the
third straight month in October. In fact, it declined more than
expected. That usually indicates a softening economy ahead.

Beyond that, there is too much uncertainty in the world, and the stock
market hates uncertainty.

I'm going to be watching the November LEI numbers carefully. If
November LEI is another bust, then earnings may decline and that's bad
news for the stock market.


--
Steven D. Litvintchouk
Email:

Remove the NOSPAM before replying to me.

Re: Where to now?

"Herb" <> wrote in message
news:uxcef.101929$

> More like a big room full of crazy men all shouting at once. Still, you
> can
> characterize it if not predict its behavior.
>
Or like a bunch of monkeys running around trying to piss on each other. (I
love that metaphor, which one of my relatives used to describe drivers on
the freeway.)