mimfchal2005 results, 11/11/2005

This week, Sam is back on the top on risk-adjusted basis. And TK and Mark
are neck to neck for the last place on absolute basis.

Portfolio Name 11/11/05
Arne $133,739.00
David $126,960.00
Siddharth $122,090.00
Sam $116,768.00
Kaspa_ETF $114,995.00
DavidOH $114,092.00
Kaspa $113,600.00
FTSE100 $112,752.00
New Yorker $110,838.00
Ram1 $108,679.00
NoEd $108,010.00
Who's Your Daddy $107,959.00
StevenL $107,410.00
Ram2 $106,934.00
Skip/VFINX $104,241.00
Marlowe $102,515.00
mkusuma $102,004.00
Darin $101,308.00
Sam'sDog $100,488.00
bln $90,590.00
Mark $78,804.00
TK $78,038.00

Risk-relative rankings:

Portfolio Name Sharpe Ratio
Sam 47.65%
David 21.97%
NoEd 20.57%
Siddharth 18.18%
Arne 17.49%
Kaspa_ETF 16.50%
Ram2 14.99%
New Yorker 13.74%
Who's Your Daddy 11.45%
Kaspa 10.10%
StevenL 8.42%
Ram1 7.73%
bln 7.49%
DavidOH 3.27%
mkusuma 0.10%

Re: mimfchal2005 results, 11/11/2005

About the mimchal2005 contest. I assumed this was supposed to be a 'real
life' portfolio to show how were are doing as investors. As I've previously
mentioned, I only invest in otc funds at profunds, hence, I own either all
uopix or uspix, and that is reflected in my contest portfolio.

When I look at some of the other portfolios, I question whether anyone would
put their entire portfolio in one stock, given I keep hearing here that
'diversification' is the way to wealth.

So, I'd like to hear from the other people in the contest about this. If
this isn't real life, it proves nothing about investing skills, it's just
who can find the current 'hot' stock and does not reflect investing skills
at all. It just becomes a meaningless gambling exercise. And that folks, is
of no interest to me, because it proves nothing about investing ability.

Arne

------------

"TK Sung" <> wrote in message
news:cS9ef.13440$
> This week, Sam is back on the top on risk-adjusted basis. And TK and Mark
> are neck to neck for the last place on absolute basis.
>
> Portfolio Name 11/11/05
> Arne $133,739.00
> David $126,960.00
> Siddharth $122,090.00
> Sam $116,768.00
> Kaspa_ETF $114,995.00
> DavidOH $114,092.00
> Kaspa $113,600.00
> FTSE100 $112,752.00
> New Yorker $110,838.00
> Ram1 $108,679.00
> NoEd $108,010.00
> Who's Your Daddy $107,959.00
> StevenL $107,410.00
> Ram2 $106,934.00
> Skip/VFINX $104,241.00
> Marlowe $102,515.00
> mkusuma $102,004.00
> Darin $101,308.00
> Sam'sDog $100,488.00
> bln $90,590.00
> Mark $78,804.00
> TK $78,038.00
>

Re: mimfchal2005 results, 11/11/2005

For the record, my mimchal2005 portfolio mirrors the percentage
of funds and stocks in my real-life portfolio almost exactly.

Sam's Dog, of course, does not.

Fictitious portfolios may not say anything about individual
investing skills, but it still is informative, so I have no
problem with it. As a buy-n-holder with long-term investment
goals, I view the whole contest endeavor as not-so-serious
anyway. The real thing of interest, for me, would be to see how a
strategy does performance-wise over 20 or 30 years. One year
doesn't capture a strategy, for my goals.


In article <ofEff.12437$>,
"happy-guy" <> wrote:

> About the mimchal2005 contest. I assumed this was supposed to be a 'real
> life' portfolio to show how were are doing as investors. As I've previously
> mentioned, I only invest in otc funds at profunds, hence, I own either all
> uopix or uspix, and that is reflected in my contest portfolio.
>
> When I look at some of the other portfolios, I question whether anyone would
> put their entire portfolio in one stock, given I keep hearing here that
> 'diversification' is the way to wealth.
>
> So, I'd like to hear from the other people in the contest about this. If
> this isn't real life, it proves nothing about investing skills, it's just
> who can find the current 'hot' stock and does not reflect investing skills
> at all. It just becomes a meaningless gambling exercise. And that folks, is
> of no interest to me, because it proves nothing about investing ability.
>
> Arne

Re: mimfchal2005 results, 11/11/2005

Oh, and how is that?.... do you mean that when you have nothing to lose you
can go balls out to play a game?

See, I thought people came here with real money (not just the contest) to
find out how to make it grow, like real in life.

What's informative about searching for hot stocks (on a fund newsgroup,
btw), and jumping on them to win.?

So essentially, the contest is useless, and what do would be investors learn
from that? I thought it was supposed to be a comparison of techniques and
represent real life situations...... silly ole me.

Happy Guy
-
"sam grey" <> wrote in message
news:
>
> Fictitious portfolios may not say anything about individual
> investing skills, but it still is informative,

Re: mimfchal2005 results, 11/11/2005

sam grey wrote:
> For the record, my mimchal2005 portfolio mirrors the percentage
> of funds and stocks in my real-life portfolio almost exactly.
>
> Sam's Dog, of course, does not.
>
> Fictitious portfolios may not say anything about individual
> investing skills, but it still is informative, so I have no
> problem with it. As a buy-n-holder with long-term investment
> goals, I view the whole contest endeavor as not-so-serious
> anyway. The real thing of interest, for me, would be to see how a
> strategy does performance-wise over 20 or 30 years. One year
> doesn't capture a strategy, for my goals.
>
>
> In article <ofEff.12437$>,
> "happy-guy" <> wrote:
>
>
>>About the mimchal2005 contest. I assumed this was supposed to be a 'real
>>life' portfolio to show how were are doing as investors. As I've previously
>>mentioned, I only invest in otc funds at profunds, hence, I own either all
>>uopix or uspix, and that is reflected in my contest portfolio.
>>
>>When I look at some of the other portfolios, I question whether anyone would
>>put their entire portfolio in one stock, given I keep hearing here that
>>'diversification' is the way to wealth.
>>
>>So, I'd like to hear from the other people in the contest about this. If
>>this isn't real life, it proves nothing about investing skills, it's just
>>who can find the current 'hot' stock and does not reflect investing skills
>>at all. It just becomes a meaningless gambling exercise. And that folks, is
>>of no interest to me, because it proves nothing about investing ability.
>>
>>Arne

I guess I must be the guilty party here and that "happy-guy" Arne is
becoming less happy as I creep up on him and might just possibly
overtake him before the end! Actually I took my lead partly from Arne,
noting that he only trades one investment at a time, with one for a bull
market and another for a bear. Just what UOPIX is I have not found out.
Its name, Profunds UltraOTC, is less than illuminating. "Ultra" suggests
something specialised and extreme and "OTC" could be Over-The-Counter
which might be some very low cap stocks. Whatever it is, it is probably
not a general market index like the S&P500 or DOW.

By switching his whole portfolio from OUPIX to USPIX and back again
quite frequently, apparently without any costs at all, he is doing
something that cannot be done with most mutual funds according to other
contributors who complain about mutual fund companies limiting the
number of trades and levying fees for doing them. I certainly can't
trade stocks without paying commission and the spread between bid and
offer prices, which are included in my transactions.

I explained my use of stocks at the beginning. As a UK citizen and
resident I cannot legally buy US mutual funds. I can and do buy the UK
version, called Unit Trusts over here, but these are not quoted on
Finance-Yahoo so I cannot use them in the competition. This means that
if I am to compete I can only trade UK stocks. TK is accounting for the
different movements of the UK and US markets by also giving the Sharpe
Ratio so this probably gives a fairer overall position than the value of
the portfolio.

As to realism, My real and contest portfolios have coincided at various
times but are quite different at the moment. One difference is that I
don't put all my disposable cash into stocks or mutual funds. At the
moment, again, my real portfolio has about 60% in Unit Trusts and one
stock and the other 40% in cash. Nearly all the contest portfolios have
100% in stocks or mutual funds and I cannot believe this is true of any
of the real portfolios, including Arne's, and is certainly not diversified.

All the asset allocators recommend spreading investments between stocks
or funds, US and overseas, bonds, property (REITs) and cash with
generally no more than 60% in stocks and often less depending on age. No
one is doing this in the competition. Let's face it, the competition is
unreal also because it is a one year dash for the tape whereas most
portfolios are longer term things. I regard the competition portfolios
as experimental vehicles to try different investment strategies to find
what works and what doesn't (mostly doesn't!). This has proved very
useful in warning me off nearly all of the possible short term
strategies for my real portfolio which is now quite different because it
is much longer term.

Incidentally those who have heard of Nick Leeson, who brought down
Barings Bank by making huge concealed losses, may remember he was
probably doing something similar to Arne. He was betting the Bank's
money on movements of the Tokyo index on the basis he could guess which
way it would go. Over a period he got it wrong often enough to bankrupt
his employers. Arne must have a better record so far in betting his
whole portfolio on knowing which way his PIXs will go but I would still
call it high risk. I think Mark has tried to do the same thing and is
coming last for the third year in a row.

Re: mimfchal2005 results, 11/11/2005

David, you are correct to a point. I look at other people's portfolios, I
assume it is not particularly frowned upon since apparently you've looked at
mine.

- any citizen in the USA can invest in Profunds. That they choose not to is
not my fault. I can and do switch a lot sometimes, but only when I feel it
necessary, and not within the past month (not necessary).

- if you normally (not occasionally) keep all your pounds in one stock,
that's the end of it.

- I expect you will surpass me, since I know of no fund that has had the
gain your stock has.

- in my real life portfolio, I hold only one fund at a time. It is profunds,
either bull or bear. I am, after all, a market timer.

I don't mind being overtaken by a legitimate hold (though I would prefer it
be in a fund, not a stock), but it gets back to what is the purpose of all
of this (mimfchal). Is it to just win, or is it to win using a legitimate
system that is used in real life so that others can see what works and what
doesn't.

If it is to just win, then I may as well start using stocks that I identify
as doing well and use margin. That is not what I do in real life, but I can
certainly use it to my advantage using my system. It will have nothing to do
with my every day investing techniques.

I'm going to give this some thought. Seems as if I'm the only one this is
bothering as no one else is near us. And I'm using my every day investment
techniques, and I suspect you are not. Since I don't think this has ever
been discussed as a concern before, and no ground rules were made to cover
it, I think you are right to do whatever you want..... If I decide I don't
want to play using lopsided ground rules, I'm going to leave the game and
delete my portfolio. At my age, I just really don't like being annoyed by
this type of thing.

In any event, good luck in the contest...

Arne

"David Wilkinson" <> wrote in message >
> I guess I must be the guilty party here and that "happy-guy" Arne is
> becoming less happy as I creep up on him and might just possibly overtake
> him before the end! Actually I took my lead partly from Arne, noting that
> he only trades one investment at a time, with one for a bull market and
> another for a bear. Just what UOPIX is I have not found out. Its name,
> Profunds UltraOTC, is less than illuminating. "Ultra" suggests something
> specialised and extreme and "OTC" could be Over-The-Counter which might be
> some very low cap stocks. Whatever it is, it is probably not a general
> market index like the S&P500 or DOW.
>
> By switching his whole portfolio from OUPIX to USPIX and back again quite
> frequently, apparently without any costs at all, he is doing something
> that cannot be done with most mutual funds according to other contributors
> who complain about mutual fund companies limiting the number of trades and
> levying fees for doing them. I certainly can't trade stocks without paying
> commission and the spread between bid and offer prices, which are included
> in my transactions.

Re: mimfchal2005 results, 11/11/2005

In article <C8Iff.12448$>,
"happy-guy" <> wrote:

> Oh, and how is that?.... do you mean that when you have nothing to lose you
> can go balls out to play a game?
>

<snip>

> So essentially, the contest is useless, and what do would be investors learn
> from that? I thought it was supposed to be a comparison of techniques and
> represent real life situations...... silly ole me.

Yes, silly ole you for taking it so seriously . . . if you want
to determine what the best investing strategies are, you don't do
it with a bunch of bozos on Usenet, particularly with a sample
size that is less than statistically relevant, with a bunch of
methodologies that can't readily be systematically compared with
one another without a lot of questions about consistency being
explored, without any real or systematic methodology, where
problems such as the one you bring up haven't been thought out
and worked out right from the beginning (you know you're not the
first to raise this question, right? Check Google groups) and
incorporated into the "experimental design."

I hope you realize that no matter who wins the contest in the end
there will always be someone else who says "well, he didn't
really deserve to win because X or Y or Z," so even leaving aside
the problems with experimental design and methodology, and
statistical validity, as a means to "prove" someone is a great
investor or not, the whole contest is not gonna be persuasive,
anymore than someone betting on a football pool in the office and
wins can easily persuade others that he's some kind of great
sports wizard. Sorry to disappoint, but doing well in the contest
really doesn't mean squat, even if everyone WERE to use their own
portfolios. What we got here is equivalent to a bunch of guys
drinking beer and pissing on the campfire to see who gets the
bragging rights to be the one with the most urine flow to put it
out.

And I would hasten to add that any newbies basing their investing
techniques on what is "learned" in this casual exercise will get
what they deserve, whether or not they get lucky.




>
> Happy Guy
> -
> "sam grey" <> wrote in message
> news:
> >
> > Fictitious portfolios may not say anything about individual
> > investing skills, but it still is informative,

Re: mimfchal2005 results, 11/11/2005

David, for now, it seems to best to just drop this and finish the year out.
Good luck...

Happy Guy

Re: mimfchal2005 results, 11/11/2005

As far a equivalency, what you have here is someone who has studied the
market and timing techniques for 10 years, and has been making 80% of his
living using those techniques. The same I use in the contest.

Maybe your investment friends going around doing the things you mention, but
mine are mostly professional quality and are quite proud of their investing
prowess. Myself included.

If everyone did use their real portfolio apportioned to the starting figure,
it would be quite an eye-opener. So, while you, for some reason choose to
denigrate the contest, it could be a very useful tool, especially for those
with enough gray matter to think there are other options other than buy &
hold, "diversification" and "I don't mind losing 20% of my portfolio, I'm in
it for the long haul".

The only disappointment is people like yourself who walk around with their
investment blinders on thinking there is only one way to invest and "that
way" is "your way".

Happy Guy
-
"sam grey" <> wrote in message
news:
> In article <C8Iff.12448$>,
Sorry to disappoint, but doing well in the contest
> really doesn't mean squat, even if everyone WERE to use their own
> portfolios. What we got here is equivalent to a bunch of guys
> drinking beer and pissing on the campfire to see who gets the
> bragging rights to be the one with the most urine flow to put it
> out.
>

Happy Guy & David.

It's just for fun. Lighten up.

Both of you are in a contest with me as well. David knocked me down into 5th
place with his winning streak. I'm not complaining. My portfolio reflects
what I actually do in my real portfolio as well but this is just a for fun
contest with no prize money. Enjoy it.

David is using T/A and he was stopped out of his other positions. Actually,
he was holding a lot of cash. I wrote him a note explaining that his cash
won't help him move higher because it's November and the contest is nearing
its end. I don't know if this is what got him to go fully invested or not
but it really doesn't matter.

Just have fun with it. As far as a fund that went up as much as David's
stock, well I'm not sure how much his stock has gone up but there are some
Latin America funds that would have got you 80% if you just bought and held.






"happy-guy" <> wrote in message
news:HbKff.12457$
> David, you are correct to a point. I look at other people's portfolios, I
> assume it is not particularly frowned upon since apparently you've looked
> at mine.
>
> - any citizen in the USA can invest in Profunds. That they choose not to
> is not my fault. I can and do switch a lot sometimes, but only when I feel
> it necessary, and not within the past month (not necessary).
>
> - if you normally (not occasionally) keep all your pounds in one stock,
> that's the end of it.
>
> - I expect you will surpass me, since I know of no fund that has had the
> gain your stock has.
>
> - in my real life portfolio, I hold only one fund at a time. It is
> profunds, either bull or bear. I am, after all, a market timer.
>
> I don't mind being overtaken by a legitimate hold (though I would prefer
> it be in a fund, not a stock), but it gets back to what is the purpose of
> all of this (mimfchal). Is it to just win, or is it to win using a
> legitimate system that is used in real life so that others can see what
> works and what doesn't.
>
> If it is to just win, then I may as well start using stocks that I
> identify as doing well and use margin. That is not what I do in real life,
> but I can certainly use it to my advantage using my system. It will have
> nothing to do with my every day investing techniques.
>
> I'm going to give this some thought. Seems as if I'm the only one this is
> bothering as no one else is near us. And I'm using my every day investment
> techniques, and I suspect you are not. Since I don't think this has ever
> been discussed as a concern before, and no ground rules were made to cover
> it, I think you are right to do whatever you want..... If I decide I don't
> want to play using lopsided ground rules, I'm going to leave the game and
> delete my portfolio. At my age, I just really don't like being annoyed by
> this type of thing.
>
> In any event, good luck in the contest...
>
> Arne
>
> "David Wilkinson" <> wrote in message >
>> I guess I must be the guilty party here and that "happy-guy" Arne is
>> becoming less happy as I creep up on him and might just possibly overtake
>> him before the end! Actually I took my lead partly from Arne, noting that
>> he only trades one investment at a time, with one for a bull market and
>> another for a bear. Just what UOPIX is I have not found out. Its name,
>> Profunds UltraOTC, is less than illuminating. "Ultra" suggests something
>> specialised and extreme and "OTC" could be Over-The-Counter which might
>> be some very low cap stocks. Whatever it is, it is probably not a general
>> market index like the S&P500 or DOW.
>>
>> By switching his whole portfolio from OUPIX to USPIX and back again quite
>> frequently, apparently without any costs at all, he is doing something
>> that cannot be done with most mutual funds according to other
>> contributors who complain about mutual fund companies limiting the number
>> of trades and levying fees for doing them. I certainly can't trade stocks
>> without paying commission and the spread between bid and offer prices,
>> which are included in my transactions.
>
>

Re: mimfchal2005 results, 11/11/2005

Hi Arne,

Since you are wondering how much real life our portfolios are..

My stocks portfolio is entirely an experiment. I essentially used
momentum-based
strategy based on some technical characteristics. In real life I never
use pure technical
analysis for stocks.

My ETF portfolio is similar to what I have for part of my portfolio.
About
60% of my portfolio is B&H (actively managed funds). About 30% is
sector
rotation based on ETFs, similar to the one I am using in the contest.
About
10% is 'undefined' - stocks, short hedging, etc. As a portfolio, I
have beaten
the index (total stock market) by a few percentage points since I
started
investing.

My expectations from the contest are rather modest. I want to try
different
strategies, which I can actually use in real life. Your success in two
fund
switching system prompted me to start another mock portfolio switching
between USPIX and UOPIX, which has done rather well (actually better
than my contest portfolio). I have started using this strategy in real
life
with about 5% of my money. If it continues to be successful, I will
increase
my allocation in that strategy.

Sorry for the ramble.

Kaspa

Re: mimfchal2005 results, 11/11/2005

happy-guy <> wrote:

> About the mimchal2005 contest. I assumed this was supposed to be a
> 'real life' portfolio to show how were are doing as investors.

I don't think there's any reason to assume that. I think it's what it
is: a "contest".

The only difference between one of my portfolios in the contest and
the real one is that I DCA twice a month (this has resulted in a
higher rate of return thusfar this year). But I don't have the time or
the inclination to do that for the contest.

> So, I'd like to hear from the other people in the contest about this. If
> this isn't real life, it proves nothing about investing skills, it's just
> who can find the current 'hot' stock and does not reflect investing skills
> at all.

Yep, it may not.

It just becomes a meaningless gambling exercise.

For some, that's what it may well be.

> And that folks, is of no interest to me, because it proves nothing
> about investing ability.

I think each person is in the contest for their own reasons.

However, I think if you participate for several years, and you always
come out on top like you are now, then you could make certain claims.

--Ram

> "TK Sung" <> wrote in message
> news:cS9ef.13440$
>> This week, Sam is back on the top on risk-adjusted basis. And TK and Mark
>> are neck to neck for the last place on absolute basis.
>>
>> Portfolio Name 11/11/05
>> Arne $133,739.00
>> David $126,960.00
>> Siddharth $122,090.00
>> Sam $116,768.00
>> Kaspa_ETF $114,995.00
>> DavidOH $114,092.00
>> Kaspa $113,600.00
>> FTSE100 $112,752.00
>> New Yorker $110,838.00
>> Ram1 $108,679.00
>> NoEd $108,010.00
>> Who's Your Daddy $107,959.00
>> StevenL $107,410.00
>> Ram2 $106,934.00
>> Skip/VFINX $104,241.00
>> Marlowe $102,515.00
>> mkusuma $102,004.00
>> Darin $101,308.00
>> Sam'sDog $100,488.00
>> bln $90,590.00
>> Mark $78,804.00
>> TK $78,038.00
>>

Re: Happy Guy & David.

Ed wrote:
> It's just for fun. Lighten up.
>
> Both of you are in a contest with me as well. David knocked me down into 5th
> place with his winning streak. I'm not complaining. My portfolio reflects
> what I actually do in my real portfolio as well but this is just a for fun
> contest with no prize money. Enjoy it.
>
> David is using T/A and he was stopped out of his other positions. Actually,
> he was holding a lot of cash. I wrote him a note explaining that his cash
> won't help him move higher because it's November and the contest is nearing
> its end. I don't know if this is what got him to go fully invested or not
> but it really doesn't matter.
>
> Just have fun with it. As far as a fund that went up as much as David's
> stock, well I'm not sure how much his stock has gone up but there are some
> Latin America funds that would have got you 80% if you just bought and held.
>
>
You are right Ed. I was stopped out of all my stocks except CSR.L at one
stage a few weeks ago by a weekly (40,85,45) MACD. This was during a
correction that most FTSE100 stocks experienced. Then the index
recovered but the stock MACDs were a bit slow to react. How and when to
reinvest, as I was well behind and running out of time?

In choosing CSR.L, I was not chasing a hot stock or relying on
screening. CSR.L, or Cambridge Silicon Radio, has a special place in my
life because both my son and daughter in law work for it as electronic
engineers designing chips for BlueTooth wireless systems. As such I have
been following it closely and investing in it in real life.

While I have no inside information, I know what they do and how
successful they are and on a "Buffett" basis I know they are going to
grow for the long term and that this is not a "hot stock" but a well
founded growth company.

So, rather than reinvest for the competition in a random, diversified
set of 10 stocks, and noting there was only a short time left to make a
big advance, I put all the portfolio into CSR.L. This was not as much of
a gamble as it might appear for the reasons above and it has been
successful so far. The price may well pause where it is for the rest of
the year but it is unlikely to go down much and could go up a lot if
they issue a favourable press release anytime soon.

If you look at the price history, it went from about 320 in early May to
over 800 now so it has good momentum. The fundamentals are also good,
41% predicted annual growth rate for the next three years. It was just
too good to ignore. If you look at the other contestants' portfolios you
will see that some of them use stocks as well. I have no choice as I
explained in my other note.

Whatever you do don't drop out. Just ignore my results if you think they
are unfair.

Re: Happy Guy & David.

David, I'm not going to drop out. I don't care who wins. It's just kind of
fun so I play. My goal is to beat the S&P500 each year and so far so good.
If I end up winning the contest, and it really looks like that would be
wishful thinking at the moment, that's fine and I'll feel good about it. I
don't look at the contest very often, every week or two. I was surprised at
your major advance but good for you. I still think Arne is going to win but
whoever wins it doesn't matter really. I give my real portfolio more
attention but the returns this year are about in line with the contest
returns. Nothing to write home about. My buy and hold ETF portfolio has been
deleted from the contest website but it is doing much better than my entry
portfolio. Good guesses.



"David Wilkinson" <> wrote in message
news:dlo3r1$h4s$
> Ed wrote:
>> It's just for fun. Lighten up.
>>
>> Both of you are in a contest with me as well. David knocked me down into
>> 5th place with his winning streak. I'm not complaining. My portfolio
>> reflects what I actually do in my real portfolio as well but this is just
>> a for fun contest with no prize money. Enjoy it.
>>
>> David is using T/A and he was stopped out of his other positions.
>> Actually, he was holding a lot of cash. I wrote him a note explaining
>> that his cash won't help him move higher because it's November and the
>> contest is nearing its end. I don't know if this is what got him to go
>> fully invested or not but it really doesn't matter.
>>
>> Just have fun with it. As far as a fund that went up as much as David's
>> stock, well I'm not sure how much his stock has gone up but there are
>> some Latin America funds that would have got you 80% if you just bought
>> and held.
>>
>>
> You are right Ed. I was stopped out of all my stocks except CSR.L at one
> stage a few weeks ago by a weekly (40,85,45) MACD. This was during a
> correction that most FTSE100 stocks experienced. Then the index recovered
> but the stock MACDs were a bit slow to react. How and when to reinvest, as
> I was well behind and running out of time?
>
> In choosing CSR.L, I was not chasing a hot stock or relying on screening.
> CSR.L, or Cambridge Silicon Radio, has a special place in my life because
> both my son and daughter in law work for it as electronic engineers
> designing chips for BlueTooth wireless systems. As such I have been
> following it closely and investing in it in real life.
>
> While I have no inside information, I know what they do and how successful
> they are and on a "Buffett" basis I know they are going to grow for the
> long term and that this is not a "hot stock" but a well founded growth
> company.
>
> So, rather than reinvest for the competition in a random, diversified set
> of 10 stocks, and noting there was only a short time left to make a big
> advance, I put all the portfolio into CSR.L. This was not as much of a
> gamble as it might appear for the reasons above and it has been successful
> so far. The price may well pause where it is for the rest of the year but
> it is unlikely to go down much and could go up a lot if they issue a
> favourable press release anytime soon.
>
> If you look at the price history, it went from about 320 in early May to
> over 800 now so it has good momentum. The fundamentals are also good, 41%
> predicted annual growth rate for the next three years. It was just too
> good to ignore. If you look at the other contestants' portfolios you will
> see that some of them use stocks as well. I have no choice as I explained
> in my other note.
>
> Whatever you do don't drop out. Just ignore my results if you think they
> are unfair.

Re: mimfchal2005 results, 11/11/2005

In article <mBKff.12463$>,
"happy-guy" <> wrote:

> The only disappointment is people like yourself who walk around with their
> investment blinders on thinking there is only one way to invest and "that
> way" is "your way".

Who said that? Not me. Feel free to invest your money as you see
fit. We were talking about the validity of the contest, which is
another discussion entirely.

Re: Happy Guy & David.

Here is my take on my involvement. I am using real life techniques and real
life funds. This is how I live. If I don't make money in the market, it
means I don't have money to live on... period.

So, I do take this far more seriously than someone who is just testing out a
theory. But, I did overreact about what David is doing, and I apologize for
that. On the other hand, I'm thinking that since I'm one of the few that is
doing it for real life results, I am out of sync with the group. And I'll
not discuss this further and will give some thought to what I'll personally
do about it. Since we are close to the end of the year, I'll probably stay
in, but not after this year.

Happy Guy

Re: mimfchal2005 results, 11/11/2005

Well put. How many of the portfolios have bonds? That should give one a
good idea how realistic they are. I would bet the average age of the
participants to be around 45-50 years old.



"sam grey" <> wrote in message
news:
> In article <C8Iff.12448$>,
> "happy-guy" <> wrote:
>
>> Oh, and how is that?.... do you mean that when you have nothing to lose
>> you
>> can go balls out to play a game?
>>
>
> <snip>
>
>> So essentially, the contest is useless, and what do would be investors
>> learn
>> from that? I thought it was supposed to be a comparison of techniques and
>> represent real life situations...... silly ole me.
>
> Yes, silly ole you for taking it so seriously . . . if you want
> to determine what the best investing strategies are, you don't do
> it with a bunch of bozos on Usenet, particularly with a sample
> size that is less than statistically relevant, with a bunch of
> methodologies that can't readily be systematically compared with
> one another without a lot of questions about consistency being
> explored, without any real or systematic methodology, where
> problems such as the one you bring up haven't been thought out
> and worked out right from the beginning (you know you're not the
> first to raise this question, right? Check Google groups) and
> incorporated into the "experimental design."
>
> I hope you realize that no matter who wins the contest in the end
> there will always be someone else who says "well, he didn't
> really deserve to win because X or Y or Z," so even leaving aside
> the problems with experimental design and methodology, and
> statistical validity, as a means to "prove" someone is a great
> investor or not, the whole contest is not gonna be persuasive,
> anymore than someone betting on a football pool in the office and
> wins can easily persuade others that he's some kind of great
> sports wizard. Sorry to disappoint, but doing well in the contest
> really doesn't mean squat, even if everyone WERE to use their own
> portfolios. What we got here is equivalent to a bunch of guys
> drinking beer and pissing on the campfire to see who gets the
> bragging rights to be the one with the most urine flow to put it
> out.
>
> And I would hasten to add that any newbies basing their investing
> techniques on what is "learned" in this casual exercise will get
> what they deserve, whether or not they get lucky.
>
>
>
>
>>
>> Happy Guy
>> -
>> "sam grey" <> wrote in message
>> news:
>> >
>> > Fictitious portfolios may not say anything about individual
>> > investing skills, but it still is informative,

Re: mimfchal2005 results, Last Year's Results

I believe this was last year's results:

December 30 November 31
============== ==================
1) Clemens $ 145,695.11 $ 135,822.80 (1)
2) David £ 114,498.75 £ 109,216.55 (2)
NoEd $113,823.

3) Steven $ 103,691.09 $ 107,080.82 (3)
4) Brian $ 94,151.45 ?
5) Marlowe $ 91,168.51 ?
6) Kaspa $ 89,238.81 $ 91,707.87 (6)
7) Mark $ 60,180.57 $ 64,058.28 (7)




"sam grey" <> wrote in message
news:
> In article <mBKff.12463$>,
> "happy-guy" <> wrote:
>
>> The only disappointment is people like yourself who walk around with
>> their
>> investment blinders on thinking there is only one way to invest and "that
>> way" is "your way".
>
> Who said that? Not me. Feel free to invest your money as you see
> fit. We were talking about the validity of the contest, which is
> another discussion entirely.

Re: mimfchal2005 results, Last Year's Results

You were canned last year, you shouldn't be on the list, no documentation.

"NoEd" <> wrote
>I believe this was last year's results:
>
> December 30 November 31
> ============== ==================
> 1) Clemens $ 145,695.11 $ 135,822.80 (1)
> 2) David £ 114,498.75 £ 109,216.55 (2)
> 3) Steven $ 103,691.09 $ 107,080.82 (3)
> 4) Brian $ 94,151.45 ?
> 5) Marlowe $ 91,168.51 ?
> 6) Kaspa $ 89,238.81 $ 91,707.87 (6)
> 7) Mark $ 60,180.57 $ 64,058.28 (7)

Re: mimfchal2005 results, 11/11/2005

"NoEd" <> wrote

> Well put. How many of the portfolios have bonds? That should give one a
> good idea how realistic they are. I would bet the average age of the
> participants to be around 45-50 years old.

I'm older, I own no bonds or bond funds.

Re: mimfchal2005 results, 11/11/2005

Ed wrote:
>
> "NoEd" <> wrote
>
> > Well put. How many of the portfolios have bonds? That should give
> > one a good idea how realistic they are. I would bet the average age
> > of the participants to be around 45-50 years old.
>
> I'm older, I own no bonds or bond funds.

You do (indirectly) own bonds, e.g. 35% of OAKBX's holdings are bonds.

What does M* X-ray say about your portfolio? How does that compare with
what M* X-ray says about the portfolios in this contest?
--
Mark Freeland

Re: mimfchal2005 results, 11/11/2005

"Mark Freeland" <> wrote

> You do (indirectly) own bonds, e.g. 35% of OAKBX's holdings are bonds.
>
> What does M* X-ray say about your portfolio? How does that compare with
> what M* X-ray says about the portfolios in this contest?

I also own Price Capital Appreciation, M* puts me at 2.36% bonds. I have no
idea what's in the mimf contest portfolios, I'm not a participant.

Re: mimfchal2005 results, 11/11/2005

I'm old enough to be on Medicare and own no bonds and I expect uopix holds
no bonds.

Happy Guy

Re: mimfchal2005 results, 11/11/2005

Well I am under 40, and I prefer to minimize the risk to my portfolio. I
use VBIIX as my bond fund.


"happy-guy" <> wrote in message
news:DD_ff.12531$
> I'm old enough to be on Medicare and own no bonds and I expect uopix holds
> no bonds.
>
> Happy Guy
>
>

Re: mimfchal2005 results, Last Year's Results

Why is 13% so hard to believe? It is true.


"Ed" <> wrote in message
news:
> You were canned last year, you shouldn't be on the list, no documentation.
>
> "NoEd" <> wrote
>>I believe this was last year's results:
>>
>> December 30 November 31
>> ============== ==================
>> 1) Clemens $ 145,695.11 $ 135,822.80 (1)
>> 2) David £ 114,498.75 £ 109,216.55 (2)
>> 3) Steven $ 103,691.09 $ 107,080.82 (3)
>> 4) Brian $ 94,151.45 ?
>> 5) Marlowe $ 91,168.51 ?
>> 6) Kaspa $ 89,238.81 $ 91,707.87 (6)
>> 7) Mark $ 60,180.57 $ 64,058.28 (7)
>
>

Re: mimfchal2005 results, 11/11/2005

"happy-guy" <> wrote in message
news:ofEff.12437$
>
> So, I'd like to hear from the other people in the contest about this. If
> this isn't real life, it proves nothing about investing skills, it's just
> who can find the current 'hot' stock and does not reflect investing skills
> at all. It just becomes a meaningless gambling exercise. And that folks,
is
> of no interest to me, because it proves nothing about investing ability.
>
That's why I added risk-adjusted rankings. According to those numbers, Sam
is the best investor so far in this contest.

Re: mimfchal2005 results, 11/11/2005

"happy-guy" <> wrote in message
news:C8Iff.12448$
>
> So essentially, the contest is useless, and what do would be investors
learn
> from that?
>
Contest could be still useful collectively in that it demonstrates people on
average are not likely to beat the market . Obviously, this year has been
an exception since the group is beating the market and many people are
winning vis a vis the index. It would be interesting, though not
necessarily useful, at the end of the contest to discuss why this year is
different.

Re: mimfchal2005 results, 11/11/2005

"TK Sung" <> wrote in message
news:Yp2gf.14916$
>
> Contest could be still useful collectively in that it demonstrates people
on
> average are not likely to beat the market .
>
Oh, that and how people react when they are winning or losing. It's funny
how people talk loud when they are winning and not hear from them a pip
squeak when they are losing. (Where is Garazelli now?) It's a microcosm of
the real market.

Re: mimfchal2005 results, Last Year's Results

"NoEd" <> wrote

> Why is 13% so hard to believe? It is true.

So is -13%. You have no proof, your claim can't be substantiated.
"It is true" doesn't cut it.



> "Ed" <> wrote in message
> news:
>> You were canned last year, you shouldn't be on the list, no
>> documentation.
>>
>> "NoEd" <> wrote
>>>I believe this was last year's results:
>>>
>>> December 30 November 31
>>> ============== ==================
>>> 1) Clemens $ 145,695.11 $ 135,822.80 (1)
>>> 2) David £ 114,498.75 £ 109,216.55 (2)
>>> 3) Steven $ 103,691.09 $ 107,080.82 (3)
>>> 4) Brian $ 94,151.45 ?
>>> 5) Marlowe $ 91,168.51 ?
>>> 6) Kaspa $ 89,238.81 $ 91,707.87 (6)
>>> 7) Mark $ 60,180.57 $ 64,058.28 (7)
>>
>>
>
>

Re: mimfchal2005 results, 11/11/2005

"TK Sung" <> wrote
> "TK Sung" <> wrote
> > Contest could be still useful collectively in that it
demonstrates people
> on
> > average are not likely to beat the market .

The contest can be penetrating in a way that just reading
about the hazards of timing cannot be. The players are
forced to immerse themselves in the real life implications
of their decisions. That is, some folks just have to
experience the pain to 'get it.' At least in a contest, the
only pain is likely to be to one's ego, if one claimed his
timing method was going to beat everyone's and did not do so
consistently.

> Oh, that and how people react when they are winning or
losing. It's funny
> how people talk loud when they are winning and not hear
from them a pip
> squeak when they are losing. (Where is Garazelli now?)
It's a microcosm of
> the real market.

Absolutely so. The discussion of this contest is robust and
often fruitful.

There's no one article on investing that can teach
everything. So of course one contest can't teach everything,
either. But it can teach some things.

Re: mimfchal2005 results, 11/11/2005

Getting to this thread a little late, but...

happy-guy wrote:
> When I look at some of the other portfolios, I question whether anyone would
> put their entire portfolio in one stock, given I keep hearing here that
> 'diversification' is the way to wealth.

The strategy (or strategies) I use in my real-life portfolios would
never, ever win a contest like this, which is one reason I haven't had
much interest in the contest. The other reason is that I'm too lazy to
be bothered with an extra portfolio online that isn't even real.

At the beginning of this year, I said that if I were going to be in the
contest, I'd go 100% BEARX, and TK set me up with that. The reasoning
for BEARX is that it gives me a good chance of winning if the market
has a bad year. So...let's say one year in three or four, I have a
decent shot. Again, if I used my real-life strategies, I'd have zero
chance. I suppose it'd be even better to leverage something like BEARX
as much as possible, but whatever.

It's perfectly sensible to adopt different strategies for different
situations, and there's no reason to assume the best approach for a
one-year contest would also be the best approach for a 20-year contest,
and vice versa.

Darin

Re: mimfchal2005 results, 11/11/2005

My portfolio represents what I would do in real life if I had the money :). I
own 3 out of 5 positions in my portfolio and will buy into atleast one of the
other two. The contest is also a way for me to experiment. I like to buy stocks/
funds for long term (atleast 6 months, prefer a year) holding and so you can see
I have very little turnover.

happy-guy wrote:
> About the mimchal2005 contest. I assumed this was supposed to be a 'real
> life' portfolio to show how were are doing as investors. As I've previously
> mentioned, I only invest in otc funds at profunds, hence, I own either all
> uopix or uspix, and that is reflected in my contest portfolio.
>
> When I look at some of the other portfolios, I question whether anyone would
> put their entire portfolio in one stock, given I keep hearing here that
> 'diversification' is the way to wealth.
>
> So, I'd like to hear from the other people in the contest about this. If
> this isn't real life, it proves nothing about investing skills, it's just
> who can find the current 'hot' stock and does not reflect investing skills
> at all. It just becomes a meaningless gambling exercise. And that folks, is
> of no interest to me, because it proves nothing about investing ability.
>
> Arne
>
> ------------
>
> "TK Sung" <> wrote in message
> news:cS9ef.13440$
>
>>This week, Sam is back on the top on risk-adjusted basis. And TK and Mark
>>are neck to neck for the last place on absolute basis.
>>
>>Portfolio Name 11/11/05
>>Arne $133,739.00
>>David $126,960.00
>>Siddharth $122,090.00
>>Sam $116,768.00
>>Kaspa_ETF $114,995.00
>>DavidOH $114,092.00
>>Kaspa $113,600.00
>>FTSE100 $112,752.00
>>New Yorker $110,838.00
>>Ram1 $108,679.00
>>NoEd $108,010.00
>>Who's Your Daddy $107,959.00
>>StevenL $107,410.00
>>Ram2 $106,934.00
>>Skip/VFINX $104,241.00
>>Marlowe $102,515.00
>>mkusuma $102,004.00
>>Darin $101,308.00
>>Sam'sDog $100,488.00
>>bln $90,590.00
>>Mark $78,804.00
>>TK $78,038.00
>>
>
>
>
>

Re: mimfchal2005 results, 11/11/2005

"Elle" <> wrote in message
news:0z9gf.1742$
> That is, some folks just have to
> experience the pain to 'get it.'
>
But that pain never teaches anybody anything, even in real life. When it
works, one thinks that his method really works. When it doesn't, he's given
to inaction, only to roar back when he finds something that "works" again.
It's a sysiphian oscillation between the delusion of rajas and tamas for us
mortals.

Re: mimfchal2005 results, 11/11/2005

"TK Sung" <> wrote
> "Elle" <> wrote
> > That is, some folks just have to
> > experience the pain to 'get it.'
> >
> But that pain never teaches anybody anything, even in real life. When it
> works, one thinks that his method really works. When it doesn't, he's
given
> to inaction, only to roar back when he finds something that "works" again.
> It's a sysiphian oscillation between the delusion of rajas and tamas for
us
> mortals.

I think your statements above should be attached to the definitions of
"numerologist," "gambler," "irrational," and "mathematically
unsophisticated."

The mortals OTOH will feel the pain.