Watching Dow, Selling Fund

I'm a green toad in the pond of seasoned experts. But here's the gist
of it:


Being inexperienced in financial matters I'll do my best to state
this question. This concerns my 401K plan at work. A friend in
accounting pointed out the index performances and their apparent
relationship to the 401K mutual funds.

Our 401K mutual fund package (I contribute to four funds and have
faithfully watch their activities for the last year) allows the
employee to buy and sell these funds six times a year with no charge,
no penalty. There's a better way of stating that; but that's how I
am able to express it.

With that said here the scenario Joe, the senior accountant, presented
to me. This is his theory, and it seems credible. Watching my 401Ks
performance over the last year I noticed that that several times during
the year I lost a big chunk of money (lost momentum?) and a few later
regained the lost ground, and eventually the 401k funds climbed a bit
higher. Gradually, incrementally, the 401K grew at bit.

Over the year the graph of these four funds performance appeared as a
sine wave.
Joe pointed out that the Dow, the index funds, also rose and fell in a
wave pattern. And that it was possible to predict when to be in the
funds and ride the wave up, and be out of the funds, and wait for the
drop to cease.

If we took my funds dates of rising and the dates of falling - it
appeared that when the index rose so did the funds, and when the index
fell -so did the funds. His theory is that if the funds were sold at
those index highs, and the funds bought back, when the index drop to
its low that we could have prevented over the year the painful losses
of 401K money that we contribute from our paychecks.

These last two weeks I've looked at the Dow, first time examination.
As it has climbed the 401K looks great. It would be nice to hold it,
and not see it drop significantly. Joe's analysis of this momentum is
that it may break into a 'new high' and that could be a determining
point to sell off the funds.

If there are any comments into this strong attempt to express this
scenario on indexes and mutual funds that would be most appreciated.

Thanks

Re: Watching Dow, Selling Fund

You are being tempted into the world of market timing. Everything I
have read on the subject says "DON'T"!

On 16 Nov 2005 19:25:56 -0800, wrote:

>I'm a green toad in the pond of seasoned experts. But here's the gist
>of it:
>
>
>Being inexperienced in financial matters I'll do my best to state
>this question. This concerns my 401K plan at work. A friend in
>accounting pointed out the index performances and their apparent
>relationship to the 401K mutual funds.
>
>Our 401K mutual fund package (I contribute to four funds and have
>faithfully watch their activities for the last year) allows the
>employee to buy and sell these funds six times a year with no charge,
>no penalty. There's a better way of stating that; but that's how I
>am able to express it.
>
>With that said here the scenario Joe, the senior accountant, presented
>to me. This is his theory, and it seems credible. Watching my 401Ks
>performance over the last year I noticed that that several times during
>the year I lost a big chunk of money (lost momentum?) and a few later
>regained the lost ground, and eventually the 401k funds climbed a bit
>higher. Gradually, incrementally, the 401K grew at bit.
>
>Over the year the graph of these four funds performance appeared as a
>sine wave.
>Joe pointed out that the Dow, the index funds, also rose and fell in a
>wave pattern. And that it was possible to predict when to be in the
>funds and ride the wave up, and be out of the funds, and wait for the
>drop to cease.
>
>If we took my funds dates of rising and the dates of falling - it
>appeared that when the index rose so did the funds, and when the index
>fell -so did the funds. His theory is that if the funds were sold at
>those index highs, and the funds bought back, when the index drop to
>its low that we could have prevented over the year the painful losses
>of 401K money that we contribute from our paychecks.
>
>These last two weeks I've looked at the Dow, first time examination.
>As it has climbed the 401K looks great. It would be nice to hold it,
>and not see it drop significantly. Joe's analysis of this momentum is
>that it may break into a 'new high' and that could be a determining
>point to sell off the funds.
>
>If there are any comments into this strong attempt to express this
>scenario on indexes and mutual funds that would be most appreciated.
>
>Thanks

Re: Watching Dow, Selling Fund

Top posting:

If Joe was correct, wouldn't he be sitting on the beach sipping a tall
drink, instead of working as a senior accountant?


wrote:
> I'm a green toad in the pond of seasoned experts. But here's the gist
> of it:
>
>
> Being inexperienced in financial matters I'll do my best to state
> this question. This concerns my 401K plan at work. A friend in
> accounting pointed out the index performances and their apparent
> relationship to the 401K mutual funds.
>
> Our 401K mutual fund package (I contribute to four funds and have
> faithfully watch their activities for the last year) allows the
> employee to buy and sell these funds six times a year with no charge,
> no penalty. There's a better way of stating that; but that's how I
> am able to express it.
>
> With that said here the scenario Joe, the senior accountant, presented
> to me. This is his theory, and it seems credible. Watching my 401Ks
> performance over the last year I noticed that that several times during
> the year I lost a big chunk of money (lost momentum?) and a few later
> regained the lost ground, and eventually the 401k funds climbed a bit
> higher. Gradually, incrementally, the 401K grew at bit.
>
> Over the year the graph of these four funds performance appeared as a
> sine wave.
> Joe pointed out that the Dow, the index funds, also rose and fell in a
> wave pattern. And that it was possible to predict when to be in the
> funds and ride the wave up, and be out of the funds, and wait for the
> drop to cease.
>
> If we took my funds dates of rising and the dates of falling - it
> appeared that when the index rose so did the funds, and when the index
> fell -so did the funds. His theory is that if the funds were sold at
> those index highs, and the funds bought back, when the index drop to
> its low that we could have prevented over the year the painful losses
> of 401K money that we contribute from our paychecks.
>
> These last two weeks I've looked at the Dow, first time examination.
> As it has climbed the 401K looks great. It would be nice to hold it,
> and not see it drop significantly. Joe's analysis of this momentum is
> that it may break into a 'new high' and that could be a determining
> point to sell off the funds.
>
> If there are any comments into this strong attempt to express this
> scenario on indexes and mutual funds that would be most appreciated.
>
> Thanks

Re: Watching Dow, Selling Fund

wrote:
> Our 401K mutual fund package (I contribute to four funds and have
> faithfully watch their activities for the last year) allows the
> employee to buy and sell these funds six times a year with no charge,
> no penalty.
>
> This is his theory, and it seems credible. several times during
> the year I lost a big chunk of money (lost momentum?) and a few later
> regained the lost ground, and eventually the 401k funds climbed a bit
> higher. Gradually, incrementally, the 401K grew at bit.
>
> it was possible to predict when to be in the
> funds and ride the wave up, and be out of the funds, and wait for the
> drop to cease.
>
> appeared that when the index rose so did the funds, and when the index
> fell -so did the funds. prevented over the year the painful losses
> of 401K money that we contribute from our paychecks.
>
> momentum is
> that it may break into a 'new high' and that could be a determining
> point to sell off the funds.

The nice thing about market theorems involving spatial probability
within time is the certain lack of exactitude empirical import denotes:

a) for
examples of the latter instance (sans J.Siegel), and b) a college
level statistics course for the former - practical course applications
(examples) apt to be employed within market statistical abstracts.
Together, these forms are a fair composite of a common toolworks within
the epistemological make up of an investor.

So you see, it is not improbable for me to think that, within your
proposal, there exists neither concrete assurances you either will make
more money through solely holding by cumulative averages, or b) whether
you may reasonably be expected to profitably sell/buy wholly within
disparate volumes indices signify over time; that the above set exists,
I have simply to see as a sum c) latency, in some liklehood a
statistical probability, for the occurance of "making more money" as
true, by dint each has to concur within means you propose. In short,
for the correct answer c): with both directives available to you [sic,
implicitly, six times yearly], to confer for the most profitability
over the longest available duration.

Re: Watching Dow, Selling Fund

Flash, this gentlemen has a serious query. You're not
serving anyone well with crap like this. There's a time and
place for cuteness. This isn't it.

Imagine if people had responded with similar crap and
teasing when you were obviously panicking over that little
note T. Rowe Price sent you recently.

> Together, these forms are a fair composite of a common
toolworks within
> the epistemological make up of an investor.
>
> So you see, it is not improbable for me to think that,
within your
> proposal, there exists neither concrete assurances you
either will make
> more money

Re: Watching Dow, Selling Fund

Ell wrote:
> Flash, this gentlemen has a serious query. You're not
> serving anyone well with crap like this. There's a time and
> place for cuteness. This isn't it.
>
> Imagine if people had responded with similar crap and
> teasing when you were obviously panicking over that little
> note T. Rowe Price sent you recently.

He is harmless. No one can understand what he says anyway.


>
> > Together, these forms are a fair composite of a common
> toolworks within
> > the epistemological make up of an investor.
> >
> > So you see, it is not improbable for me to think that,
> within your
> > proposal, there exists neither concrete assurances you
> either will make
> > more money

Re: Watching Dow, Selling Fund

The impression that I've cultivated from these responses is that
timing the market is hazardous, and that this activity, is at best,
reckless.

I thought one had a few options in managing ones 401k. A few years back
when the dot coms shrunk all the workers here suffered significant
loses. It seems that if they had sold off (timing that collapse) they
could have protected those monies extracted from their paychecks. Those
loses, in a few portfolios, were irreparable. Here's an example where
the investor didn't touch the funds, and assumed that it would move
into 'correction'. But the move spiraled downward. Had they had
'hands on' capability to manipulate the fund it seems those loses
could have been prevented. In this case we suggest preventing a loss,
and in the other instance, calculating a gain.

These posting suggest its best to leave the 401k mutual funds alone,
and allow them to rise and fall.

However, there seems to be alternative options where one can directly
manage, and secure a better future for the 401k funds. This doesn't
reflect upon market timing and day trade thinking - but the ability
to 'farm ones crops' so that the harvest is maximized.

Thanks

Re: Watching Dow, Selling Fund

wrote:
> The impression that I've cultivated from these responses is that
> timing the market is hazardous, and that this activity, is at best,
> reckless.

Not reckless. There are proponents of timing. But it's more
sophisticated than your senior accountant friend would have you
believe. If it's that simple we'd all be rich.

>
> I thought one had a few options in managing ones 401k. A few years back
> when the dot coms shrunk all the workers here suffered significant
> loses. It seems that if they had sold off (timing that collapse) they
> could have protected those monies extracted from their paychecks. Those
> loses, in a few portfolios, were irreparable. Here's an example where
> the investor didn't touch the funds, and assumed that it would move
> into 'correction'. But the move spiraled downward. Had they had
> 'hands on' capability to manipulate the fund it seems those loses
> could have been prevented. In this case we suggest preventing a loss,
> and in the other instance, calculating a gain.

Well hind sight is 100%. The first mistake was to invest in high risk
stocks, and not recognizing the risk. But that's a little different
from timing the market.

>
> These posting suggest its best to leave the 401k mutual funds alone,
> and allow them to rise and fall.
>

Depending on your time horizon.

> However, there seems to be alternative options where one can directly
> manage, and secure a better future for the 401k funds. This doesn't
> reflect upon market timing and day trade thinking - but the ability
> to 'farm ones crops' so that the harvest is maximized.
>

Yes and most of us here do that kind of management.

> Thanks

Re: Watching Dow, Selling Fund

You can reduce risk through asset allocation.
You can reduce risk by dollar cost averaging, you're doing that.
Timing the market is difficult and can be costly.

When the dotcoms collapsed there were red flags all over the place. Selling
when these warnings were growing in number whould have been the thing to do.
P/e's were crazy, companies were missing analysts estimates left and right
over several quarters, earnings expectations were being lowered, none of the
dotcoms "the new economy" companies had earnings. As you know it would have
been nuts to stay invested in some of these funds, especially the technology
and internet funds.

If you sell after your portfolio has gone up so much that you can't believe
it's true and you buy back in when things are so cheap that you don't think
they can get any cheaper then you will do just fine. That's all the market
timing ability you need. It doesn't happen that often.



<> wrote

> The impression that I've cultivated from these responses is that
> timing the market is hazardous, and that this activity, is at best,
> reckless.
>
> I thought one had a few options in managing ones 401k. A few years back
> when the dot coms shrunk all the workers here suffered significant
> loses. It seems that if they had sold off (timing that collapse) they
> could have protected those monies extracted from their paychecks. Those
> loses, in a few portfolios, were irreparable. Here's an example where
> the investor didn't touch the funds, and assumed that it would move
> into 'correction'. But the move spiraled downward. Had they had
> 'hands on' capability to manipulate the fund it seems those loses
> could have been prevented. In this case we suggest preventing a loss,
> and in the other instance, calculating a gain.
>
> These posting suggest its best to leave the 401k mutual funds alone,
> and allow them to rise and fall.
>
> However, there seems to be alternative options where one can directly
> manage, and secure a better future for the 401k funds. This doesn't
> reflect upon market timing and day trade thinking - but the ability
> to 'farm ones crops' so that the harvest is maximized.
>
> Thanks
>

Re: Watching Dow, Selling Fund

<> wrote
>
> The impression that I've cultivated from these responses
is that
> timing the market is hazardous, and that this activity, is
at best,
> reckless.

Yes. Studies support this.

snip
> However, there seems to be alternative options where one
can directly
> manage, and secure a better future for the 401k funds.
This doesn't
> reflect upon market timing and day trade thinking - but
the ability
> to 'farm ones crops' so that the harvest is maximized.

Right. It's called portfolio allocation for optimal returns.

For ideas and an introduction to the subject, try some free
online portfolio allocation tools. I list several at the
site

Re: Watching Dow, Selling Fund

Ell wrote:
> <> wrote
>
>>The impression that I've cultivated from these responses
>
> is that
>
>>timing the market is hazardous, and that this activity, is
>
> at best,
>
>>reckless.
>
>
> Yes. Studies support this.
>
No. Timing the market in the right way reduces risk and increases
returns. Most of the opponents of timing are in the fund companies who
make their money by keeping you invested no matter what.

Look at the Nasdaq from 2000 to 2003 and ask if you want to be a Buy &
Holder while the market goes down 75% from 5000 to 1200 or the Dow while
it goes down 35% from 11,500 to 7,500.

> snip
>
>>However, there seems to be alternative options where one
>
> can directly
>
>>manage, and secure a better future for the 401k funds.
>
> This doesn't
>
>>reflect upon market timing and day trade thinking - but
>
> the ability
>
>>to 'farm ones crops' so that the harvest is maximized.
>
>
> Right. It's called portfolio allocation for optimal returns.
>
> For ideas and an introduction to the subject, try some free
> online portfolio allocation tools. I list several at the
> site
>
>

Re: Watching Dow, Selling Fund

"David Wilkinson" <>
wrote
> Ell wrote:
> > <> wrote
> >
> >>The impression that I've cultivated from these responses
> >
> > is that
> >
> >>timing the market is hazardous, and that this activity,
is
> >
> > at best,
> >
> >>reckless.
> >
> >
> > Yes. Studies support this.
> >
> No.

Yes. Studies support this.

> Timing the market in the right way reduces risk and
increases
> returns.

If you knew what you were talking about, you'd be filthy
rich. You're not. Q.E.D.

Re: Watching Dow, Selling Fund

I don't think Ell likes you very much.
Lucky you!!!

Re: Watching Dow, Selling Fund

Some of the witch's more recent posts indicate that she is getting into
timing herself.
She claims to be having some success. Soon, she will be "filthy rich" just
like you.




"David Wilkinson" <> wrote in message
news:dlik0p$lo7$
> Ell wrote:
>> <> wrote
>>
>>>The impression that I've cultivated from these responses
>>
>> is that
>>
>>>timing the market is hazardous, and that this activity, is
>>
>> at best,
>>
>>>reckless.
>>
>>
>> Yes. Studies support this.
>>
> No. Timing the market in the right way reduces risk and increases returns.
> Most of the opponents of timing are in the fund companies who make their
> money by keeping you invested no matter what.
>
> Look at the Nasdaq from 2000 to 2003 and ask if you want to be a Buy &
> Holder while the market goes down 75% from 5000 to 1200 or the Dow while
> it goes down 35% from 11,500 to 7,500.
>
>> snip
>>
>>>However, there seems to be alternative options where one
>>
>> can directly
>>
>>>manage, and secure a better future for the 401k funds.
>>
>> This doesn't
>>
>>>reflect upon market timing and day trade thinking - but
>>
>> the ability
>>
>>>to 'farm ones crops' so that the harvest is maximized.
>>
>>
>> Right. It's called portfolio allocation for optimal returns.
>>
>> For ideas and an introduction to the subject, try some free
>> online portfolio allocation tools. I list several at the
>> site
>>

Re: Watching Dow, Selling Fund

Denial is an attempt at a rhetorical beginning, you devise to broaden
through including everyone, as indicative and within some sufficiency
established, for an expletive to introduce, which time is to qualify
for pertinency; the conceivable analogy then to suit and shift upon a
prior missive T.Rowe Price directed to me, I can refute to better
establish how duly affected, as you suggest, I am: Whether it is a
better stage to qualify a field of 16,000 funds at the brokerage house
I trade within, long before T.Rowe Price excluded their presence. Of
course, you may try again, but do try and be mindful - triteness and
needless contradiction seldom do justify a will to truly entertain
intent.

Ell wrote:
> Flash, this gentlemen has a serious query. You're not
> serving anyone well with crap like this. There's a time and
> place for cuteness. This isn't it.
>
> Imagine if people had responded with similar crap and
> teasing when you were obviously panicking over that little
> note T. Rowe Price sent you recently.

Re: Watching Dow, Selling Fund

wrote:
> The impression that I've cultivated from these responses is that
> timing the market is hazardous, and that this activity, is at best,
> reckless.

You have six trades to exercise as yearly objectives within a timeframe
that your death will allow you. If you had died wholly invested in
QQQQ at the untimely demise of that particular 'dotcom upstart' ETF,
yes, your life's worth would be irrefutably a seventh valuation of
today's fifth. Nevertheless, there's no dennying you do exist as a
paradigmatic enigma within such stipulations as you find yourself given
to trade - again, six trades a year. Whether you choose to, or not to,
exercise six trades is the paradigm, simply because they exists - you
must, then, willfully decide and abide by such a conclusion as will
your actions provide.

Bet; you have no choice. You are in the game. -Blaise Pascal

Re: Watching Dow, Selling Fund

wrote:

> I'm a green toad in the pond of seasoned experts. But here's the gist
> of it:
>
>
> Being inexperienced in financial matters I'll do my best to state
> this question. This concerns my 401K plan at work. A friend in
> accounting pointed out the index performances and their apparent
> relationship to the 401K mutual funds.
>
> Our 401K mutual fund package (I contribute to four funds and have
> faithfully watch their activities for the last year) allows the
> employee to buy and sell these funds six times a year with no charge,
> no penalty. There's a better way of stating that; but that's how I
> am able to express it.
>
> With that said here the scenario Joe, the senior accountant, presented
> to me. This is his theory, and it seems credible.

Well, it's not credible to me.

For many decades, or even longer, there have been countless attempts to
devise timing strategies--when to be in the market, when to be out of
the market. Believe me, it's an extremely difficult issue. And anyone
who thinks they have suddenly invented a simplistic magic formula that
has somehow escaped skilled investors for over 100 years, is kidding
themselves.

What I would suggest, is that you try this theory out with a fictional
hypothetical account. You can open one on Yahoo or use a spreadsheet.
Try it for a year or so and see if it works. I'm willing to bet you
that it won't.


--
Steven D. Litvintchouk
Email:

Remove the NOSPAM before replying to me.

Re: Watching Dow, Selling Fund

Ed wrote:

> When the dotcoms collapsed there were red flags all over the place. Selling
> when these warnings were growing in number whould have been the thing to do.
> P/e's were crazy, companies were missing analysts estimates left and right
> over several quarters, earnings expectations were being lowered, none of the
> dotcoms "the new economy" companies had earnings.

And my favorite: We had an inverted yield curve as of January 2000.
That was my best indicator that it was time to bail out.

But you and I, Ed, are citing *fundamentals* rather than *technical
analysis* (as the original poster is doing), as the way to make
investment choices.

What I have always vehemently objected to, is the idea that technical
analysis--a bunch of mathematical Mickey Mouse applied to past stock
market prices, or to trend curves--can predict future trends.
Especially in the absence of information about the economy or technology
or Fed policy or even politics.


--
Steven D. Litvintchouk
Email:

Remove the NOSPAM before replying to me.

Re: Watching Dow, Selling Fund

Crap responses like Flash's is what keeps new comers off this NG.


"Ell" <> wrote in message
news:262ff.2432$
> Flash, this gentlemen has a serious query. You're not
> serving anyone well with crap like this. There's a time and
> place for cuteness. This isn't it.
>
> Imagine if people had responded with similar crap and
> teasing when you were obviously panicking over that little
> note T. Rowe Price sent you recently.
>
>> Together, these forms are a fair composite of a common
> toolworks within
>> the epistemological make up of an investor.
>>
>> So you see, it is not improbable for me to think that,
> within your
>> proposal, there exists neither concrete assurances you
> either will make
>> more money
>
>

Re: Watching Dow, Selling Fund

Don't try to time the market. Reduce risk by DCA, asset allocation, and
cost containment and keep in mind that the higher the potential return the
higher the risk. Historic price movement patterns can always be found, but
there is no way to know if they will continue. Think of multiple regression
analysis. You can probably come up with some independent variables to
explain a large percentage of past price movements, but there is no way to
know if these variables will exert the same pull going forward or if some
should be dropped and/or be added. Also there is the problem of correlation
among the variables.

Pay off your credit cards, max out your 401K and Roth IRAs, have a safety
fund, buy term life insurance if you have kids, and forget about beating Las
Vegas and the stock market.


<> wrote in message
news:
> I'm a green toad in the pond of seasoned experts. But here's the gist
> of it:
>
>
> Being inexperienced in financial matters I'll do my best to state
> this question. This concerns my 401K plan at work. A friend in
> accounting pointed out the index performances and their apparent
> relationship to the 401K mutual funds.
>
> Our 401K mutual fund package (I contribute to four funds and have
> faithfully watch their activities for the last year) allows the
> employee to buy and sell these funds six times a year with no charge,
> no penalty. There's a better way of stating that; but that's how I
> am able to express it.
>
> With that said here the scenario Joe, the senior accountant, presented
> to me. This is his theory, and it seems credible. Watching my 401Ks
> performance over the last year I noticed that that several times during
> the year I lost a big chunk of money (lost momentum?) and a few later
> regained the lost ground, and eventually the 401k funds climbed a bit
> higher. Gradually, incrementally, the 401K grew at bit.
>
> Over the year the graph of these four funds performance appeared as a
> sine wave.
> Joe pointed out that the Dow, the index funds, also rose and fell in a
> wave pattern. And that it was possible to predict when to be in the
> funds and ride the wave up, and be out of the funds, and wait for the
> drop to cease.
>
> If we took my funds dates of rising and the dates of falling - it
> appeared that when the index rose so did the funds, and when the index
> fell -so did the funds. His theory is that if the funds were sold at
> those index highs, and the funds bought back, when the index drop to
> its low that we could have prevented over the year the painful losses
> of 401K money that we contribute from our paychecks.
>
> These last two weeks I've looked at the Dow, first time examination.
> As it has climbed the 401K looks great. It would be nice to hold it,
> and not see it drop significantly. Joe's analysis of this momentum is
> that it may break into a 'new high' and that could be a determining
> point to sell off the funds.
>
> If there are any comments into this strong attempt to express this
> scenario on indexes and mutual funds that would be most appreciated.
>
> Thanks
>

Re: Watching Dow, Selling Fund

Ed wrote:
> I don't think Ell likes you very much.
> Lucky you!!!
>
>
I don't think she likes anyone.

And how does she know I am not filthy rich?

Re: Watching Dow, Selling Fund

NoEd wrote:
> Don't try to time the market. Reduce risk by DCA, asset allocation, and
> cost containment and keep in mind that the higher the potential return the
> higher the risk. Historic price movement patterns can always be found, but
> there is no way to know if they will continue. Think of multiple regression
> analysis. You can probably come up with some independent variables to
> explain a large percentage of past price movements, but there is no way to
> know if these variables will exert the same pull going forward or if some
> should be dropped and/or be added. Also there is the problem of correlation
> among the variables.
>
What you mean is that you cannot time the market and this is because you
are using the wrong methods, like the ones above. Try using AIM instead.

> Pay off your credit cards, max out your 401K and Roth IRAs, have a safety
> fund, buy term life insurance if you have kids, and forget about beating Las
> Vegas and the stock market.
>

Good advice, except the bit about not beating the market. Why not beat
it, when you can?

Re: Watching Dow, Selling Fund

NoEd wrote:
> Crap responses like Flash's is what keeps new comers off this NG.

Are people being kept out, and, if so, what are they kept out from? Is
it from an alternatives to what B&H strategists simplistically
acknowledge as generally acceptable? I see responses you and others
have attempted germanely to contribute, that by far the majority have
spoken as advocates of B&H, yourself included, to not time the market.
All, that is, except for David. Joe's timing scheme did and does not
interest me other than remotely as a coincidental effect, as someone
else has already pointed out, which ought not be taken apart from
overall factors operating upon the market. Notice now how the subject
appears to forgo Joe's broader reference index for options he, as do
most investors, have available: whether to sell/buy within
discretionary rights he is given over a proposed contractual timeframe.
Back up to the original posting. There exists potential in six trades
yearly. I'm going suggest you're not entirely right, that you've given
the newcomer an unsuitable answer. He had to ask twice to time, after
all, so apparently your answer isn't getting through. Perhaps at heart
he doesn't want to hear you exalt DCA and B&H strategies. Step aside a
moment, sport, and let me attempt to give this 'timing' thing a go. By
all means do utilize all six trades by attempting to buy into
sustained, profitable movements; later, that profitability will
maintain sufficient advantage for selling when losses issue. Always
compare losses within peer fund investment objectives to better
delineate them: Winners are funds which prove too profitable to sell
during an interim it takes to find a suitable replacement. When
undiversified, do so within full liquidity risk averison may
necessitate -- know what limits losses will impose -- and master them
by not exceeding such sustained losses to preclude profits a successful
investor must account.

Re: Watching Dow, Selling Fund

"Flasherly" <> wrote in message
news:
> NoEd wrote:
>> Crap responses like Flash's is what keeps new comers off this NG.
>
> Are people being kept out, and, if so, what are they kept out from? Is
> it from an alternatives to what B&H strategists simplistically
> acknowledge as generally acceptable? I see responses you and others
> have attempted germanely to contribute, that by far the majority have
> spoken as advocates of B&H, yourself included, to not time the market.
> All, that is, except for David. Joe's timing scheme did and does not
> interest me other than remotely as a coincidental effect, as someone
> else has already pointed out, which ought not be taken apart from
> overall factors operating upon the market. Notice now how the subject
> appears to forgo Joe's broader reference index for options he, as do
> most investors, have available: whether to sell/buy within
> discretionary rights he is given over a proposed contractual timeframe.
> Back up to the original posting. There exists potential in six trades
> yearly. I'm going suggest you're not entirely right, that you've given
> the newcomer an unsuitable answer. He had to ask twice to time, after
> all, so apparently your answer isn't getting through. Perhaps at heart
> he doesn't want to hear you exalt DCA and B&H strategies. Step aside a
> moment, sport, and let me attempt to give this 'timing' thing a go. By
> all means do utilize all six trades by attempting to buy into
> sustained, profitable movements; later, that profitability will
> maintain sufficient advantage for selling when losses issue. Always
> compare losses within peer fund investment objectives to better
> delineate them: Winners are funds which prove too profitable to sell
> during an interim it takes to find a suitable replacement. When
> undiversified, do so within full liquidity risk averison may
> necessitate -- know what limits losses will impose -- and master them
> by not exceeding such sustained losses to preclude profits a successful
> investor must account.
>

Re: Watching Dow, Selling Fund

So now you want me to provide a synopsis what the new comers are be kept
from? Are you serious? LOL. I'll play along. You're working very hard.


"Flasherly" <> wrote in message
news:
> NoEd wrote:
>> Crap responses like Flash's is what keeps new comers off this NG.
>
> Are people being kept out, and, if so, what are they kept out from? Is
> it from an alternatives to what B&H strategists simplistically
> acknowledge as generally acceptable?

For example?


I see responses you and others
> have attempted germanely to contribute, that by far the majority have
> spoken as advocates of B&H, yourself included, to not time the market.
> All, that is, except for David. Joe's timing scheme did and does not
> interest me other than remotely as a coincidental effect, as someone
> else has already pointed out, which ought not be taken apart from
> overall factors operating upon the market.

Yea right? Then why comment?



Notice now how the subject
> appears to forgo Joe's broader reference index for options he, as do
> most investors, have available: whether to sell/buy within
> discretionary rights he is given over a proposed contractual timeframe.

Topics always drift on this NG. What is a "reference index?" I assume
you mean by "proposed contractual timeframe" that he can trade six times a
year. If you take him at his word, that is not a proposal.


> Back up to the original posting. There exists potential in six trades
> yearly. I'm going suggest you're not entirely right, that you've given
> the newcomer an unsuitable answer.

So you disagree with me. Why?


He had to ask twice to time, after
> all, so apparently your answer isn't getting through.

Huh? I think I answer AFTER his second post.


Perhaps at heart
> he doesn't want to hear you exalt DCA and B&H strategies.

Do you know him? Maybe it is you? He implicitly wants the group to
evaluate his finding. That can't be done in a vacuum.

Step aside a
> moment, sport, and let me attempt to give this 'timing' thing a go.

By
> all means do utilize all six trades by attempting to buy into
> sustained, profitable movements;

Why will his sine wave method continue to work in the furture?


later, that profitability will
> maintain sufficient advantage for selling when losses issue.

How do you know?

Always
> compare losses within peer fund investment objectives to better
> delineate them: Winners are funds which prove too profitable to sell
> during an interim it takes to find a suitable replacement.

How should one find a replacement and when should one sell the "winners?"


> necessitate -- know what limits losses will impose -- and master them
> by not exceeding such sustained losses to preclude profits a successful
> investor must account.
>

Im just a little slow, but I'm having a very difficult understanding you.
Start from "See Dot run."

Re: Watching Dow, Selling Fund

NoEd wrote:
> So now you want me to provide a synopsis what the new comers are be kept
> from? Are you serious? LOL. I'll play along. You're working very hard.

Hardly, virtually every fund house site have its own variation.

> > NoEd wrote:
> > Are people being kept out, and, if so, what are they kept out from? Is
> > it from an alternatives to what B&H strategists simplistically
> > acknowledge as generally acceptable?
>
> For example?

Joe's chopshop index buyin guide.

> > overall factors operating upon the market.
>
> Yea right? Then why comment?

I don't necessarily B&H and I've never DCA.


> Notice now how the subject
> > appears to forgo Joe's broader reference index for options he, as do
> > most investors, have available: whether to sell/buy within
> > discretionary rights he is given over a proposed contractual timeframe.
>
> Topics always drift on this NG. What is a "reference index?" I assume
> you mean by "proposed contractual timeframe" that he can trade six times a
> year. If you take him at his word, that is not a proposal.

Other options, yes, the 6 trades, and I do. The 6 trades are
fundamental what I first contented - the trades are variables to
account to his advantage.

> Perhaps at heart
> > he doesn't want to hear you exalt DCA and B&H strategies.
>
> Do you know him? Maybe it is you? He implicitly wants the group to
> evaluate his finding. That can't be done in a vacuum

Nor a fund site - talk's cheap in forums. If he wants to hash out and
come to grips with a sense for timing, or whatever 6 trades can do - I
don't care to correct him. He knows it's better to B&H/DCA, and if he
still asks, so what.


> Why will his sine wave method continue to work in the furture?

It won't - it's something I go on (in part) by a feel for market news
anaylsis and sector screens. I buy


> > maintain sufficient advantage for selling when losses issue.
>
> How do you know?

I'm sitting on it - profits I left to ride out over positions I kept
and some I abandoned from last month's sell off of my funds. It wasn't
nearly as pretty I expected, but that's my fault: I was too greedy and
churned too much trying to keep up what I was getting used to -
fabulous returns. I mistakenly thought I was Daddy BigBucks, and paid
handsomely for the mistake.

>
> Always
> > compare losses within peer fund investment objectives to better
> > delineate them: Winners are funds which prove too profitable to sell
> > during an interim it takes to find a suitable replacement.
>
> How should one find a replacement and when should one sell the "winners?"

Relative to fund screeners - buy, four of half a dozen midcaps, for
example/instance, screen largely no more than 1, 3, and 6 months
performance/risk/overhead cost, etc, and lovingly cultivate them over
time - say the same, 6 months. Feed them money based on overall market
favorability, chart them, and, each according to its performance
merits, add more or less principle to work from. After 6 months of
that, sell the lessors, as appropriate to balance asset allocation, and
start over with another sector. I enjoy it while there aren't major
indices meltdowns floating around.

> > necessitate -- know what limits losses will impose -- and master them
> > by not exceeding such sustained losses to preclude profits a successful
> > investor must account.
> >
>
> Im just a little slow, but I'm having a very difficult understanding you.
> Start from "See Dot run."

That's an easy part to write but hard to pronounce - don't keep ones
head in the pig's feeding trough too long when greedily sucking up
profits. Like I and my alterego, Daddy BigBucks, did last month. I
kept on saying, 'but, Daddy BigBucks, I'll drown if I don't get out of
this slop soon - and all Daddy BigBucks would do was just keep on
pushing my head down, saying, eat more, sonny." I'm glad I got out in
time to keep the profits I'm sitting on the way I was losing them.
I've really got to learn to keep a lid on that Daddy BigBucks character.

Re: Watching Dow, Selling Fund

"Flasherly" <> wrote in message
news:
>
> NoEd wrote:
>> So now you want me to provide a synopsis what the new comers are be kept
>> from? Are you serious? LOL. I'll play along. You're working very hard.
>
> Hardly, virtually every fund house site have its own variation.

But the sun comes up in the east! And if you think about it, Captian Kirk
was the best captian. Have you ever been beamed up?

>
>> > NoEd wrote:
>> > Are people being kept out, and, if so, what are they kept out from? Is
>> > it from an alternatives to what B&H strategists simplistically
>> > acknowledge as generally acceptable?
>>
>> For example?
>
> Joe's chopshop index buyin guide.

Can give specifics? I just want to learn.



>
>> > overall factors operating upon the market.
>>
>> Yea right? Then why comment?
>
> I don't necessarily B&H and I've never DCA.

That is not the question.

>
>
>> Notice now how the subject
>> > appears to forgo Joe's broader reference index for options he, as do
>> > most investors, have available: whether to sell/buy within
>> > discretionary rights he is given over a proposed contractual timeframe.
>>
>> Topics always drift on this NG. What is a "reference index?" I assume
>> you mean by "proposed contractual timeframe" that he can trade six times
>> a
>> year. If you take him at his word, that is not a proposal.
>
> Other options, yes, the 6 trades, and I do. The 6 trades are
> fundamental what I first contented - the trades are variables to
> account to his advantage.

Are they? Then I have huge advantage since I can trade continuously.


>
>> Perhaps at heart
>> > he doesn't want to hear you exalt DCA and B&H strategies.
>>
>> Do you know him? Maybe it is you? He implicitly wants the group to
>> evaluate his finding. That can't be done in a vacuum
>
> Nor a fund site - talk's cheap in forums. If he wants to hash out and
> come to grips with a sense for timing, or whatever 6 trades can do - I
> don't care to correct him. He knows it's better to B&H/DCA, and if he
> still asks, so what.

He didn't want a "sense for timing." He want to know the opinions of
contributors of the group about his new found TA method.


>
>
>> Why will his sine wave method continue to work in the furture?
>
> It won't - it's something I go on (in part) by a feel for market news
> anaylsis and sector screens. I buy

What is a sector screen? Example? Based on your analysis of the market
news and screens of sectors, what should one invest in?


>
>
>> > maintain sufficient advantage for selling when losses issue.
>>
>> How do you know?
>
> I'm sitting on it - profits I left to ride out over positions I kept
> and some I abandoned from last month's sell off of my funds. It wasn't
> nearly as pretty I expected, but that's my fault: I was too greedy and
> churned too much trying to keep up what I was getting used to -
> fabulous returns. I mistakenly thought I was Daddy BigBucks, and paid
> handsomely for the mistake.

You're a TA loser.



>
>>
>> Always
>> > compare losses within peer fund investment objectives to better
>> > delineate them: Winners are funds which prove too profitable to sell
>> > during an interim it takes to find a suitable replacement.
>>
>> How should one find a replacement and when should one sell the "winners?"
>
> Relative to fund screeners


- buy, four of half a dozen midcaps, for
> example/instance, screen largely no more than 1, 3, and 6 months
> performance/risk/overhead cost, etc, and lovingly cultivate them over
> time - say the same, 6 months.

What?????? Drugs.


Feed them money based on overall market
> favorability, chart them, and, each according to its performance
> merits, add more or less principle to work from. After 6 months of
> that, sell the lessors, as appropriate to balance asset allocation, and
> start over with another sector. I enjoy it while there aren't major
> indices meltdowns floating around.

You sound like a phil's gang dork.

>
>> > necessitate -- know what limits losses will impose -- and master them
>> > by not exceeding such sustained losses to preclude profits a successful
>> > investor must account.
>> >
>>
>> Im just a little slow, but I'm having a very difficult understanding you.
>> Start from "See Dot run."
>
> That's an easy part to write but hard to pronounce - don't keep ones
> head in the pig's feeding trough too long when greedily sucking up
> profits. Like I and my alterego, Daddy BigBucks, did last month. I
> kept on saying, 'but, Daddy BigBucks, I'll drown if I don't get out of
> this slop soon - and all Daddy BigBucks would do was just keep on
> pushing my head down, saying, eat more, sonny." I'm glad I got out in
> time to keep the profits I'm sitting on the way I was losing them.
> I've really got to learn to keep a lid on that Daddy BigBucks character.
>

You really need to get a piece of A.

Re: Watching Dow, Selling Fund

NoEd wrote:
> But the sun comes up in the east! And if you think about it, Captian Kirk
> was the best captian. Have you ever been beamed up?

Variation of buy and hold - every fund house is going to be a proponent
and have supportive studies by way of introduction to prospective
clients.

> > Joe's chopshop index buyin guide.
>
> Can give specifics? I just want to learn.

Timing schemes which applaud questionable methods as a shure-fire
supportive technique for a invetment methods - Joe's chopshop for
mutual funds I used in the extreme.

> > I don't necessarily B&H and I've never DCA.
>
> That is not the question.

To me it is, and perhaps the original poster - if I've made money in
left field by taking care to choose the time and amount, I want to be
careful not to stray from average returns other indices and investors
achieve through traditional means - B&H, DCA, and asset allocation. I
realize that by dabbling in the news for hot sector picks and
selectively gloating over my winners, I've not reinvented investor
alchemy.

> Are they? Then I have huge advantage since I can trade continuously.

It's great when great minds think alike. Now it's time for the second
phase - when you can *not* trade continuously. Bit of a philosophical
quandry, Kantonian essentially, when the onus is to placed on one for
*not* acting as one ought [have acted]. As well, my whole contention
from the very start - I contend, that given means to trade
continuously, one is somehow *better* qualified intrinsically to
realize potentials denied to others; of course, the converse holds true
when one *ought not* trade when given the selection do so. Buy and
holders differ because they subordinate their will to a set course,
studies broadly support, and are less likely to seek the exception
(risk deviation).


> He didn't want a "sense for timing." He want to know the opinions of
> contributors of the group about his new found TA method.

Yes - though I sense he's a little deviate looking for an excuse to
time.

> What is a sector screen? Example? Based on your analysis of the market
> news and screens of sectors, what should one invest in?

The one that pops up on top of marketwatch.com/tools or yahoo and says
- NoEd, honey, take me out of spin.

> > I'm sitting on it - profits I left to ride out over positions I kept
> > and some I abandoned from last month's sell off of my funds. It wasn't
> > nearly as pretty I expected, but that's my fault: I was too greedy and
> > churned too much trying to keep up what I was getting used to -
> > fabulous returns. I mistakenly thought I was Daddy BigBucks, and paid
> > handsomely for the mistake.
>
> You're a TA loser.

I would definately be some kind of loser if I had not have gotten out
when I did, but since I did, you may rest assured I'm still among
sucessful investors whom achieve profits. Even if I were to say I'm
Timing Analyst because I had read a couple of books on timing, which I
haven't, I wouldn't care to qualify myself anymore than to be a lay
psychologist for having read something of Freud. We're in the relm of
empirical pseudosciences, and so long as that fact remains
unqualifably certain, the bets will still be on.


> > performance/risk/overhead cost, etc, and lovingly cultivate them over
> > time - say the same, 6 months.
>
> What?????? Drugs.

Just between you me, my methodology is to "milk" them. Once I
determine they're suitable, I fatten them up through selective cash
flow in - rewards dispersed as additional principle based on prior
performance and market trends.

> You really need to get a piece of A.

Don't we all; very sound advice.

Re: Watching Dow, Selling Fund

"Flasherly" <> wrote in message
news:
>
> NoEd wrote:
>> But the sun comes up in the east! And if you think about it, Captian
>> Kirk
>> was the best captian. Have you ever been beamed up?
>
> Variation of buy and hold - every fund house is going to be a proponent
> and have supportive studies by way of introduction to prospective
> clients.
>
>> > Joe's chopshop index buyin guide.
>>
>> Can give specifics? I just want to learn.
>
> Timing schemes which applaud questionable methods as a shure-fire
> supportive technique for a invetment methods - Joe's chopshop for
> mutual funds I used in the extreme.

Give me a timing scheme that applauds a questionable method.




>
>> > I don't necessarily B&H and I've never DCA.
>>
>> That is not the question.
>
> To me it is, and perhaps the original poster - if I've made money in
> left field by taking care to choose the time and amount, I want to be
> careful not to stray from average returns other indices and investors
> achieve through traditional means - B&H, DCA, and asset allocation. I
> realize that by dabbling in the news for hot sector picks and
> selectively gloating over my winners, I've not reinvented investor
> alchemy.
>
>> Are they? Then I have huge advantage since I can trade continuously.
>
> It's great when great minds think alike. Now it's time for the second
> phase - when you can *not* trade continuously. Bit of a philosophical
> quandry, Kantonian essentially, when the onus is to placed on one for
> *not* acting as one ought [have acted]. As well, my whole contention
> from the very start - I contend, that given means to trade
> continuously, one is somehow *better* qualified intrinsically to
> realize potentials denied to others; of course, the converse holds true
> when one *ought not* trade when given the selection do so. Buy and
> holders differ because they subordinate their will to a set course,
> studies broadly support, and are less likely to seek the exception
> (risk deviation).
>
>
>> He didn't want a "sense for timing." He want to know the opinions of
>> contributors of the group about his new found TA method.
>
> Yes - though I sense he's a little deviate looking for an excuse to
> time.

He is a deviate?


>
>> What is a sector screen? Example? Based on your analysis of the market
>> news and screens of sectors, what should one invest in?
>
> The one that pops up on top of marketwatch.com/tools or yahoo and says
> - NoEd, honey, take me out of spin.

LOL! ding dong.


>
>> > I'm sitting on it - profits I left to ride out over positions I kept
>> > and some I abandoned from last month's sell off of my funds. It wasn't
>> > nearly as pretty I expected, but that's my fault: I was too greedy and
>> > churned too much trying to keep up what I was getting used to -
>> > fabulous returns. I mistakenly thought I was Daddy BigBucks, and paid
>> > handsomely for the mistake.
>>
>> You're a TA loser.
>
> I would definately be some kind of loser if I had not have gotten out
> when I did, but since I did, you may rest assured I'm still among
> sucessful investors whom achieve profits. Even if I were to say I'm
> Timing Analyst because I had read a couple of books on timing, which I
> haven't, I wouldn't care to qualify myself anymore than to be a lay
> psychologist for having read something of Freud. We're in the relm of
> empirical pseudosciences, and so long as that fact remains
> unqualifably certain, the bets will still be on.
>
>
>> > performance/risk/overhead cost, etc, and lovingly cultivate them over
>> > time - say the same, 6 months.
>>
>> What?????? Drugs.
>
> Just between you me, my methodology is to "milk" them. Once I
> determine they're suitable, I fatten them up through selective cash
> flow in - rewards dispersed as additional principle based on prior
> performance and market trends.
>
>> You really need to get a piece of A.
>
> Don't we all; very sound advice.
>

The difference is that our lack has not messed up our minds.

Re: Watching Dow, Selling Fund

NoEd wrote:
> > Yes - though I sense he's a little deviate looking for an excuse to
> > time.
>
> He is a deviate?

Yea, sure. Inside joke, sorry you weren't in on it - it's something
you might initially feel after being kicked out of one of the major
fund houses for breaking the rules of engagement. Ever been kicked out
of a national fund house for short-selling losing issues and in the
next breath accused of being a timer? For institutions, anything that
goes against the Holy B&H Grail essentially feels as it were 'deviate'
behavior, at least, it may tend to - suppose it depends on how it
happens, or to whom.

Re: Watching Dow, Selling Fund

"Flasherly" <> wrote in message
news:
>
> NoEd wrote:
>> > Yes - though I sense he's a little deviate looking for an excuse to
>> > time.
>>
>> He is a deviate?
>
> Yea, sure. Inside joke, sorry you weren't in on it - it's something
> you might initially feel after being kicked out of one of the major
> fund houses for breaking the rules of engagement. Ever been kicked out
> of a national fund house for short-selling losing issues and in the
> next breath accused of being a timer?

Can't say I have.

For institutions, anything that
> goes against the Holy B&H Grail essentially feels as it were 'deviate'
> behavior, at least, it may tend to - suppose it depends on how it
> happens, or to whom.
>

Where did you get this? You just make stuff as you go.

Re: Watching Dow, Selling Fund

It's actually simpler than that. You buy a stock. If it goes up, sell
it. If it doesn't go up....don't buy it........;-)

Curiously, predicting the stock market does not lend itself to educated
analysis, but that doesn't stop people from trying.

Keep in mind, in order to time a market, you not only have to know when
to get out, you have to know when to get in. Lets say you get out at a
top, then it goes down but you fail to get back in. The market then
goes up past your getting out point. Now what do you do? Many wait and
wait and wait, then in frustration they jump back in...at the wrong
time. Long term the market IS headed up. This is due to the expanding
economy. The economy expands because of increase in population and
increase in standard of living. Nice system. IF it keeps working. Hope
we have enough oil....

The stock market is a giant information machine. Glean information that
few know, you can make money. Use the knowledge you have that you get
from your employment. Employees know things before the market does.
I'll tell you some inside information. Canadian oil sands aren't making
money. It costs more to get the oil out than the oil is worth.

I'll give you another tip, buy Garmin. GRMN. Leading maker of GPS
devices.

Good luck!

Re: Watching Dow, Selling Fund

Doug wrote:
> Keep in mind, in order to time a market, you not only have to know when
> to get out, you have to know when to get in. Lets say you get out at a
> top, then it goes down but you fail to get back in. The market then
> goes up past your getting out point. Now what do you do?

For arguementative purposes - one may begin by reversing the
declaration: You get in at the bottom, and it goes up, where you don't
buy, but it goes directly down once more, and, so, the status exists
further down than whence you came. Taken together, what 'to do' are
bull/bear momentum scenarios: 1) is exposure going to be a direct
correlation indicated in the first instance, or 2) is exposure to be
from the contrarian standpoint of diminishing returns. I would tend,
by in large, to rule out scenario 2: The Contrarian; indeed, at times,
I suspect he is of mythological proportions. I'm not gainsaying what is
common practice - shorts and hedges - but that it seems untenable,
logically unfeasible, and at best awkward, for capitalists to bet, en
mass, against the world's dominant economic ideology. Consequently,
since capital adherence will predominately favor protecting market
system efficiency - expansion, as you quite rightly say - perhaps
there's a skew, a speculative measurement withal to contain such
partiality subsiting within national boundaries;--the perceived
distance apart, from within a domestic hegemony, after all, is an
ensconced construct, a means risk factors are derived;--so, too, I'll
hazard, are derivatives of dollar cost averaging: Perhaps it is better
simply not to out-and-out bite the hand that feeds one, at least while
there's a better means to mollify intemperant times. Besides, I dare
you to name one sucessful investor, for whom, a relentless ticker tape
provides unbridled amusement..