jingle bells, jingle bells

Howdy all,

Happy Friday.

Well, things are looking better and better. Yesterday the markets
breached several significant levels, not only in this country, but more
or less, around the world.

Here at home, the DOW closed above 10,700 at 10,720, the dog breached
2200 and closed at 2220 and even the spx closed at 1240. These levels
happen to be either technical or pschological resistance and are
signficant going forward for us santa bulls.

Europe has had a great week and is continuing the run today. Asia is
perhaps doing even better with many of their averages at highs dating
back 4-5 years. Geez, the nikkei is approaching 15,000.

Throw in precious metals - which are ALL at 17-18 year highs (XAU is
115.90 and resistance was in the 112-113 range) and we know what I'm
buying momma for christmas. ;-)

This rally in the pm's is very strong as it's across the board and is in
the face of a continued strong dollar and lessening fears of inflation
as energy prices moderate. This tells a couple of stories - gold doing
well as indian and chinese private purchases increase with their
developing economic prosperity. Two socio/cultural reasons. In india,
gold jewelry is the social security/retirement system for women and has
been for many, many years. Well, now that the kids have high paying jobs
writing code or working call centers, what are they buying for momma? In
china, last year, the gov't legalized the buying and owning of gold for
private citizens. Well, what are they doing with their new found
economic gains? And, last but not least, what are the oil producing
middle eastern nations doing with all their oil dollars?

The other pm's are more driven by industrial demand and again, as
economic growth and prosperity spread throughout asian, eastern europe,
latin america AND the developed countries - what are they using in
production?

And the business climate is strong. Most firms, unless run be
certifiable cretins, are lean, mean and cash flush. The gov't involved
in a snotslingin contest and from a business perspective, less gov't is
best gov't. Energy prices have moderated and while interest rates are
up, they're still at historic lows.

Lastly, but not least, there are a LOT of bears about and they're
providing a wonderful wall of worry.

Bottom line - this is when we make money in the market boys and girls,
but only if we're invested. I'm about 99% long and looking to deploy the
other 1%. Most of what I've been doing in recent weeks has been making
adjustments here and there and to a degree realigning into some larger
and more techy stuff.

Recent purchases: while cutting back on energy and energy services (kept
my GASFX), I've added DGTNX, DRGTX, TVFQX, BHH for pure tech, JEQ and
PRJPX for Japan, MAKOX and MINDX for Korea and India, MATFX (asian
tech), FCX (added), SQM (chilean miner of lithium (batteries) and PTN
(make an nasal viagra that also stimulates desire (geez, is this going
to be a winner or what?!?)) Still long pm's and natural resources and
other mishmash core type holdings. The above is the stuffing and relish
and side dishes.

Hey, everyone have a great weekend.

best,

rono

Re: jingle bells, jingle bells

"Ronald V. Overton" <> wrote
> Well, things are looking better and better.

To financial numerologists, sure. Oh frabjous day Callooh
Callay, Bush "Republican" Rono proclaims.

> Yesterday the markets
> breached several significant levels, not only in this
country, but more
> or less, around the world.

snip
> And the business climate is strong. Most firms, unless run
be
> certifiable cretins, are lean, mean and cash flush. The
gov't involved
> in a snotslingin contest and from a business perspective,
less gov't is
> best gov't.

Let me translate: If you're rich and dull, you want
Evangelical "Christian" murderer Bush in office, to give
you tax cuts you don't need, kill off the poor in Iraq at
great expense, stymie discussion of a health care system
that not only works, but would save money across the board,
etc.

Gold jewelry has been the SS retirement system for women for
many years?? You are isolated.

The facts are that on Friday news reports indicated that
Katrina has affected and will continue to affect the economy
only mildly, and that things look good yada. Ron's just
parroting these without having the backbone to give credit
where it's due.

Re: jingle bells, jingle bells

Elle wrote:
> Gold jewelry has been the SS retirement system for women for
> many years?? You are isolated.

I've lived for many years outside of this country - closeby India, as
well. Ever seen Ceylon rubies, or opals shown immersed in light oil
(helps with how the lights defract), blue and red star saphires, soft
and pure Thai gold? The Chinese collect jade as if were a chess game -
it's as corundum was to me (the general phylum for 2nd hardest mineral
to diamonds - saphires and rubies), I once collected - though I gather
jade is much more intricate to Chinese classifier, in many hues and
color, grains and texture. It's an eyeful, coming off filthy dirty
streets, into some off-beaten miserly wooden shack - with a bloody
king's ransom set awaiting in petri dishes over a spot of afternoon
tea. Don't forget to wear your sunglasses, honey bunny.

Re: jingle bells, jingle bells

Hi Elle,

I don't know you, and you obviously don't know me. I try to keep
politics out of investment issues because I've been there and done that.
I've been posting off and on on this newsgroup for well over 10 years
and have experienced all sorts of trolls and flame throwers. Because I
don't know you as either, I'm responding this once.

The reason why I stated you obviously don't know me, is that I'm
probably about as anti-bush/cheney as anyone on this board and certainly
anyone you know. I think he should be impeached for various and sundry
reasons. But, I'll leave it there.

Because this is a newsgroup to discuss investments, particularly those
involving mutual funds and that's all I'm doing. I'm not trying to
solve the problems of this country or the world . . . I'm sure there are
lots of newsgroups dedicated to those very issues. And the fact that
this being group, being UnModerated, often devolves into politikal
discussions doesn't both, nor interest me one iota. I just ignore those
thread as I do the spam.

So, as mentioned, I don't know you, so am responding to set you a bit
straight about me and my politics and why I don't choose to discuss them
on this board. This is about investing and making money.

best,

rono




Elle wrote:
> "Ronald V. Overton" <> wrote
>
>>Well, things are looking better and better.
>
>
> To financial numerologists, sure. Oh frabjous day Callooh
> Callay, Bush "Republican" Rono proclaims.
>
>
>>Yesterday the markets
>>breached several significant levels, not only in this
>
> country, but more
>
>>or less, around the world.
>
>
> snip
>
>>And the business climate is strong. Most firms, unless run
>
> be
>
>>certifiable cretins, are lean, mean and cash flush. The
>
> gov't involved
>
>>in a snotslingin contest and from a business perspective,
>
> less gov't is
>
>>best gov't.
>
>
> Let me translate: If you're rich and dull, you want
> Evangelical "Christian" murderer Bush in office, to give
> you tax cuts you don't need, kill off the poor in Iraq at
> great expense, stymie discussion of a health care system
> that not only works, but would save money across the board,
> etc.
>
> Gold jewelry has been the SS retirement system for women for
> many years?? You are isolated.
>
> The facts are that on Friday news reports indicated that
> Katrina has affected and will continue to affect the economy
> only mildly, and that things look good yada. Ron's just
> parroting these without having the backbone to give credit
> where it's due.
>
>

Re: jingle bells, jingle bells

Howdy Flasherly,

I never spent any time in India, so my exposure has been through
extensive reading. However, I was able to visit Bangkok, Taipei, Sydney
and HongKong and Okinawa 4 times coming and going over the pond. These
were R&R's off of 20 months in the 'nam. At that time I was buying some
jewelry, ivory, my Rolex Submariner in HK for $97 in '68, and various
and sundry trinkets. Love the orient. But then I've also collected
coins for 50 years, so the bullion markets are something I've always
followed closesly.

take care,

rono


Flasherly wrote:

>
> I've lived for many years outside of this country - closeby India, as
> well. Ever seen Ceylon rubies, or opals shown immersed in light oil
> (helps with how the lights defract), blue and red star saphires, soft
> and pure Thai gold? The Chinese collect jade as if were a chess game -
> it's as corundum was to me (the general phylum for 2nd hardest mineral
> to diamonds - saphires and rubies), I once collected - though I gather
> jade is much more intricate to Chinese classifier, in many hues and
> color, grains and texture. It's an eyeful, coming off filthy dirty
> streets, into some off-beaten miserly wooden shack - with a bloody
> king's ransom set awaiting in petri dishes over a spot of afternoon
> tea. Don't forget to wear your sunglasses, honey bunny.
>

Re: jingle bells, jingle bells

Elle is wrong about most things, don't let it bother you.
She also has an extreme case of penis envy.






"Ronald V. Overton" <> wrote in message
news:
> Hi Elle,
>
> I don't know you, and you obviously don't know me. I try to keep politics
> out of investment issues because I've been there and done that. I've been
> posting off and on on this newsgroup for well over 10 years and have
> experienced all sorts of trolls and flame throwers. Because I don't know
> you as either, I'm responding this once.
>
> The reason why I stated you obviously don't know me, is that I'm probably
> about as anti-bush/cheney as anyone on this board and certainly anyone you
> know. I think he should be impeached for various and sundry reasons. But,
> I'll leave it there.
>
> Because this is a newsgroup to discuss investments, particularly those
> involving mutual funds and that's all I'm doing. I'm not trying to solve
> the problems of this country or the world . . . I'm sure there are lots of
> newsgroups dedicated to those very issues. And the fact that this being
> group, being UnModerated, often devolves into politikal discussions
> doesn't both, nor interest me one iota. I just ignore those thread as I
> do the spam.
>
> So, as mentioned, I don't know you, so am responding to set you a bit
> straight about me and my politics and why I don't choose to discuss them
> on this board. This is about investing and making money.
>
> best,
>
> rono
>
>
>
>
> Elle wrote:
>> "Ronald V. Overton" <> wrote
>>
>>>Well, things are looking better and better.
>>
>>
>> To financial numerologists, sure. Oh frabjous day Callooh
>> Callay, Bush "Republican" Rono proclaims.
>>
>>
>>>Yesterday the markets
>>>breached several significant levels, not only in this
>>
>> country, but more
>>
>>>or less, around the world.
>>
>>
>> snip
>>
>>>And the business climate is strong. Most firms, unless run
>>
>> be
>>
>>>certifiable cretins, are lean, mean and cash flush. The
>>
>> gov't involved
>>
>>>in a snotslingin contest and from a business perspective,
>>
>> less gov't is
>>
>>>best gov't.
>>
>>
>> Let me translate: If you're rich and dull, you want
>> Evangelical "Christian" murderer Bush in office, to give
>> you tax cuts you don't need, kill off the poor in Iraq at
>> great expense, stymie discussion of a health care system
>> that not only works, but would save money across the board,
>> etc.
>>
>> Gold jewelry has been the SS retirement system for women for
>> many years?? You are isolated.
>>
>> The facts are that on Friday news reports indicated that
>> Katrina has affected and will continue to affect the economy
>> only mildly, and that things look good yada. Ron's just
>> parroting these without having the backbone to give credit
>> where it's due.
>>

Re: jingle bells, jingle bells

"Ronald V. Overton" <> wrote in message
news:

> This is about investing and making money.
>
> best,
>
> rono

But Sarge, you forgot your signature tag line!

This is about investing and making money.
"And this aint rocket science"

Re: jingle bells, jingle bells

Hello, Ron - I've lived something over four years in the Orient. I
bought a book on gemmology and read up on interesting things to look
for when I began collecting. Also got into designing my own rings. I
enjoyed sketching pattern setting for black star sapphires and rubbies
- usually two of each for a cluster of four, which I'd have gem dealer,
artisian and goldsmith, implement with select stones. It wasn't much
and still suspect it wouldn't be - the labor pool still has to be
outlandish. Even to the easterner, after watching it comparatively
skyrocket. It's something that takes awhile to get used to by western
standards in many regards. I went native - as much as time permitted.


-Entire cities with entire families entirely riding on 40cc Honda
scooters; mom and pop and two babisons all neatly tucked aboard.
-Ubahn, not far from the border.

Re: jingle bells, jingle bells

"Ronald V. Overton" <> wrote
> Hi Elle,
>
> I don't know you, and you obviously don't know me.

Who could say, Ron? What does it mean to "know" a person? I
read your posts here. That's on what my comments were based.

> I try to keep
> politics out of investment issues because I've been there
and done that.

> I've been posting off and on on this newsgroup for well
over 10 years

That's part of the problem, Ron, among other things. You
presume that Usenet "seniority" makes a person special.

> and have experienced all sorts of trolls and flame
throwers. Because I
> don't know you as either, I'm responding this once.
>
> The reason why I stated you obviously don't know me, is
that I'm
> probably about as anti-bush/cheney as anyone on this board
and certainly
> anyone you know.

Big presumption. More evidence.

> I think he should be impeached for various and sundry
> reasons. But, I'll leave it there.
>
> Because this is a newsgroup to discuss investments,
particularly those
> involving mutual funds and that's all I'm doing. I'm not
trying to
> solve the problems of this country or the world . . . I'm
sure there are
> lots of newsgroups dedicated to those very issues. And
the fact that
> this being group, being UnModerated, often devolves into
politikal
> discussions doesn't both, nor interest me one iota. I
just ignore those
> thread as I do the spam.

I knew that already, Ron. You're weak.

> So, as mentioned, I don't know you, so am responding to
set you a bit
> straight about me and my politics and why I don't choose
to discuss them
> on this board. This is about investing and making money.

Ron,

Of course it's your right to ignore politics. It's my right
to comment on ignoring the interplay between politics, the
economy, and so investments.

Put me on killfile. I don't have patience for someone who,
in the hopes of winning popularity contests, holds the hands
of people who routinely toss out vulgarities. You have a
power you choose not to exercise, which actually makes you
pretty powerless. The ovens beckon.

I do know you, Ron. You like not rocking the boat, because
it keeps you popular and wealthy, at others' expense.

Bye, old sport, as they say in your world.

Re: jingle bells, jingle bells

Howdy flash,

yeah, bangkok was a great r&r. bunch of us went at the same time and
stayed in the same hotel. hired a 42/7 cabby and his brother for $15 I
believe (split two ways). They were our guides, interpreters, pushers
and pimps. Indeed, just for choosing them, they gave us a small candy
bar bag of thai for grins. I was fortunate to buy a ring there.
Picked out a 4.25 c black star, picked out the setting (18c) and came
back at 5:00 and picked up the ring - for $50.

What was most curious, was that even though Bangkok was my favorite
r&r, years later, my folks who have traveled most everywhere in the
world, went there and still today, Bangkok and Key West are my mom's
two favorite places. Curious.

take care,

rono

Re: jingle bells, jingle bells

On Sat, 19 Nov 2005 16:28:31 GMT, "Elle" <>
wrote:

>"Ronald V. Overton" <> wrote
>> Well, things are looking better and better.
>
>To financial numerologists, sure. Oh frabjous day Callooh
>Callay, Bush "Republican" Rono proclaims.
>
>> Yesterday the markets
>> breached several significant levels, not only in this
>country, but more
>> or less, around the world.
>
>snip
>> And the business climate is strong. Most firms, unless run
>be
>> certifiable cretins, are lean, mean and cash flush. The
>gov't involved
>> in a snotslingin contest and from a business perspective,
>less gov't is
>> best gov't.
>
>Let me translate: If you're rich and dull, you want
>Evangelical "Christian" murderer Bush in office, to give
>you tax cuts you don't need, kill off the poor in Iraq at
>great expense, stymie discussion of a health care system
>that not only works, but would save money across the board,
>etc.
>
>Gold jewelry has been the SS retirement system for women for
>many years?? You are isolated.
>
>The facts are that on Friday news reports indicated that
>Katrina has affected and will continue to affect the economy
>only mildly, and that things look good yada. Ron's just
>parroting these without having the backbone to give credit
>where it's due.
>

Grinning from ear to ear; I knew I like you but did not know until
now.

I really like people who shoot straight and do not miss the target.

Re: jingle bells, jingle bells

> Howdy flash,
>
> yeah, bangkok was a great r&r. bunch of us went at the same time and
> stayed in the same hotel. hired a 42/7 cabby and his brother for $15 I
> believe (split two ways). They were our guides, interpreters, pushers
> and pimps. Indeed, just for choosing them, they gave us a small candy
> bar bag of thai for grins. I was fortunate to buy a ring there.
> Picked out a 4.25 c black star, picked out the setting (18c) and came
> back at 5:00 and picked up the ring - for $50.
>
> What was most curious, was that even though Bangkok was my favorite
> r&r, years later, my folks who have traveled most everywhere in the
> world, went there and still today, Bangkok and Key West are my mom's
> two favorite places. Curious.
>
> take care,
>
> rono

Howdy - When I visited Bangkok it was to see a Vietnamese family. Not
too many sights that day. But, I knew someone that would drive near
the Chaing Mai province for boxes of uncut stones directly from the
mines - by the kilo for nickel-dime. He'd ship out to a gemologist,
and on a lucky day might come up with a $1800 blue saphire. A lot of
stones and associated work. Bankok and the Key West - I'd think the
heat and being directly on the equator may have that effect - and
though the Keys are close by, I shouldn't think it quite the same as
(guessing) Equador. Sunsets and lingering heat of the night - nothing
quite like the equator, to me, anyway. Much farther south from here is
emerald country. Chat on blue moons with a former rock guitarist
(seems I read he played with Bowie or some notable in his younger
years), who, over time bringing up emeralds out South America, uniquely
picked up a blues-blended, stylized flamenco.

Re: jingle bells, jingle bells

Elle wrote:

> "Ronald V. Overton" <> wrote
>
>>Hi Elle,
>>
>>I don't know you, and you obviously don't know me.
>
>
> Who could say, Ron? What does it mean to "know" a person? I
> read your posts here. That's on what my comments were based.
>
>
>>I try to keep
>>politics out of investment issues because I've been there
>
> and done that.
>
>
>> I've been posting off and on on this newsgroup for well
>
> over 10 years
>
> That's part of the problem, Ron, among other things. You
> presume that Usenet "seniority" makes a person special.
>
>
>>and have experienced all sorts of trolls and flame
>
> throwers. Because I
>
>>don't know you as either, I'm responding this once.
>>
>>The reason why I stated you obviously don't know me, is
>
> that I'm
>
>>probably about as anti-bush/cheney as anyone on this board
>
> and certainly
>
>>anyone you know.
>
>
> Big presumption. More evidence.
>
>
>>I think he should be impeached for various and sundry
>>reasons. But, I'll leave it there.
>>
>>Because this is a newsgroup to discuss investments,
>
> particularly those
>
>>involving mutual funds and that's all I'm doing. I'm not
>
> trying to
>
>>solve the problems of this country or the world . . . I'm
>
> sure there are
>
>>lots of newsgroups dedicated to those very issues. And
>
> the fact that
>
>>this being group, being UnModerated, often devolves into
>
> politikal
>
>>discussions doesn't both, nor interest me one iota. I
>
> just ignore those
>
>>thread as I do the spam.
>
>
> I knew that already, Ron. You're weak.
>
>
>>So, as mentioned, I don't know you, so am responding to
>
> set you a bit
>
>>straight about me and my politics and why I don't choose
>
> to discuss them
>
>>on this board. This is about investing and making money.
>
>
> Ron,
>
> Of course it's your right to ignore politics. It's my right
> to comment on ignoring the interplay between politics, the
> economy, and so investments.
>
> Put me on killfile.

Sounds like a plan.

<< PLONK >>


--
Steven D. Litvintchouk
Email:

Remove the NOSPAM before replying to me.

Re: jingle bells, jingle bells

"Steven L." <> wrote in message
news:vpIgf.151$

..
>
> Sounds like a plan.
>
> << PLONK >>
>
>
> --
> Steven D. Litvintchouk
> Email:
>

Steven:

The Dow has managed to stay above 10700 for a few days now (as I write this
it is making a run on 10900, despite earnings disappointments).

I am almost bullish.

You had said that you won't be tempted until the Index of Leading Indicators
starts rising again. This happened a few days ago, for October, with the
rise more than wiping out the previous month's decline. The only components
that were down were housing starts (understandably?) and the DJIA. Are you
bullish, yet?

-herb

PS: Are we looking smart being in gold or what? ;-)

Re: jingle bells, jingle bells

"Herb" <> wrote

> PS: Are we looking smart being in gold or what? ;-)

Will a turtle in the road ever look like a Corvette?
You will never look smart.

Re: jingle bells, jingle bells

"Steven L." <> wrote in message
news:vpIgf.151$
>>
>> Put me on killfile.
>
> Sounds like a plan.
>
> << PLONK >>

Steve, but the problem is, it keeps changing its' name.

Re: jingle bells, jingle bells

Ed wrote:

> "Herb" <> wrote
>
>
>>PS: Are we looking smart being in gold or what? ;-)
>
>
> Will a turtle in the road ever look like a Corvette?
> You will never look smart.

Have you two thought about taking your comedy routine on the road?
Since you discuss mutual funds, you could call your comedy act "Mutual
Acquaintances." You would be a smash in the nightclubs around the major
financial centers.


--
Steven D. Litvintchouk
Email:

Remove the NOSPAM before replying to me.

Re: jingle bells, jingle bells

Herb wrote:

> "Steven L." <> wrote in message
> news:vpIgf.151$
>
> .
>
>>Sounds like a plan.
>>
>><< PLONK >>
>>
>>
>>--
>>Steven D. Litvintchouk
>>Email:
>>
>
>
> Steven:
>
> The Dow has managed to stay above 10700 for a few days now (as I write this
> it is making a run on 10900, despite earnings disappointments).
>
> I am almost bullish.
>
> You had said that you won't be tempted until the Index of Leading Indicators
> starts rising again. This happened a few days ago, for October, with the
> rise more than wiping out the previous month's decline. The only components
> that were down were housing starts (understandably?) and the DJIA. Are you
> bullish, yet?

I'm feeling a little more bullish, but I don't know if this one-month
improvement represents a real trend yet.


>
> -herb
>
> PS: Are we looking smart being in gold or what? ;-)

Unless the Fed raises interest rates sharply (like to 10%), gold has a
lot more room to grow on the upside. Far more than it has already risen.

If you've got Metastock or something, just plot the ratio of the dollar
price of gold divided by the S&P 500 over the last 100 years. And take
a look at the chart's extreme low points (stock market overvalued, gold
undervalued) and extreme high points (stock market undervalued, gold
overvalued).

That ratio number hit an all-time low a couple years ago and has only
risen slightly since.

Just to get back to the long-term 100-year average for that ratio, the
price of gold would have to rise to over $1,000 per ounce.

To get back to a typical ratio number for an inflationary period like
the late 1970's, the price of gold could rise to $3,000 per ounce.


--
Steven D. Litvintchouk
Email:

Remove the NOSPAM before replying to me.

Re: jingle bells, jingle bells

"Steven L." <> wrote in message
news:xsSgf.1109$
> Herb wrote:
>
> > "Steven L." <> wrote in message
> > news:vpIgf.151$
> >
> > .
> >
> >>Sounds like a plan.
> >>
> >><< PLONK >>
> >>
> >>
> >>--
> >>Steven D. Litvintchouk
> >>Email:
> >>
> >
> >
> > Steven:
> >
> > The Dow has managed to stay above 10700 for a few days now (as I write
this
> > it is making a run on 10900, despite earnings disappointments).
> >
> > I am almost bullish.
> >
> > You had said that you won't be tempted until the Index of Leading
Indicators
> > starts rising again. This happened a few days ago, for October, with
the
> > rise more than wiping out the previous month's decline. The only
components
> > that were down were housing starts (understandably?) and the DJIA. Are
you
> > bullish, yet?
>
> I'm feeling a little more bullish, but I don't know if this one-month
> improvement represents a real trend yet.

Well, that's the question, isn't it? One month does not make a bull market
but all bull markets start somewhere. It's more interesting than all those
months were I didn't wonder if a bull was getting underway.
>
>
> >
> > -herb
> >
> > PS: Are we looking smart being in gold or what? ;-)
>
> Unless the Fed raises interest rates sharply (like to 10%), gold has a
> lot more room to grow on the upside. Far more than it has already risen.

Gold is a hard one to call. It has such an emotional character to it.
Also, there are vast hoardes of the stuff in central banks that they would
love to sell off.
>
> If you've got Metastock or something, just plot the ratio of the dollar
> price of gold divided by the S&P 500 over the last 100 years. And take
> a look at the chart's extreme low points (stock market overvalued, gold
> undervalued) and extreme high points (stock market undervalued, gold
> overvalued).
>
> That ratio number hit an all-time low a couple years ago and has only
> risen slightly since.

Is this just numerology? Is there any theory that links the price of gold
to a stock market index?

>
> Just to get back to the long-term 100-year average for that ratio, the
> price of gold would have to rise to over $1,000 per ounce.
>
> To get back to a typical ratio number for an inflationary period like
> the late 1970's, the price of gold could rise to $3,000 per ounce.

That would be nice but I think there are a lot of people (including us,
probably) who would be willing to sell long before these levels are reached.

I know it's not cool to say "it's different" but I think the US stock market
has changed fundamentally since a hundred years ago. National stock markets
used to be mechanisms for allocating capital within each country. With
globalization and giant multi-nationals who derive most of their profits
outside whatever country they happen to be incorporated in, the US markets
have become capital allocators to the world and the dollar has become the
world's currency. I can't think of any other way to explain how we have
gotten away with the massive twin deficits for so long.

Classical economics may be dead.

-herb
>
>
> --
> Steven D. Litvintchouk
> Email:
>
> Remove the NOSPAM before replying to me.

Re: jingle bells, jingle bells

Howdy all,

Well, one month does NOT make a bull market. However, it does look
like we'll be paid a visit by Santa this year. Hey, we've all been
around long enough to know that historically, the vast majority of the
stock market gains occur in the 4th and 1st quarters. Indeed, the day
after tomorrow is the target day for being 'all in'. Although,
november has been strong and some folks see pre-turkeyday as being a
seasonal bull run. What's nice is that if you're DCA'ng into a fully
long position by Friday, you would already have most of your money on
the table and been participating in this run. If not, you should
probably stick to CD's and EE's.

Yesterday was a HUGE close based upon the Fed minutes stating they were
about done with this cycle of rate hikes. Then after the close, that
weasel Lacker from the Richmond Fed peed in the punchbowl by saying
they weren't done yet . . . inflation hawk cretin.

Nice article about gold from gold-eagle saying that this is the 7th
bull run in the recent years bull market for gold - that it started
earlier this month - should last until May - and should see gold to to
$550 or so.



For us gold bugs, this is good news. Indeed, the pullback over night
presents a buying opp for those wanting some or more. I still think
you should overweight silver as it has a greater profit potential than
gold, but either way. Unless you're playing the individual miners, the
easiest way to do this is buy a Precious Metals fund such as RYPMX,
UNWPX and TGLDX - one that has the other metals covered. And I still
see gold at $500 by the year's end.

But on the equity front, there is a LOT of low hanging fruit - tech,
finance, transports, dividend growth, asia, japan, korea, latin
america, precious metals, .................

Right now things are looking pretty good.

best,

rono

Re: jingle bells, jingle bells

Rono, the market always tells us what to do if we let it. Thinking is what
makes a bad investor. Listening to the market makes a better investor....

btw, I stick a chart out on www.freewebs.com/timer-stuff every once in a
while....

Think I'll put another one out today....

Arne

-
"rono" <> wrote in message
>
> But on the equity front, there is a LOT of low hanging fruit - tech,
> finance, transports, dividend growth, asia, japan, korea, latin
> america, precious metals, .................
>
> Right now things are looking pretty good.
>
> best,
>
> rono
>

Re: jingle bells, jingle bells

Herb wrote:

> "Steven L." <> wrote in message
> news:xsSgf.1109$
>
>>If you've got Metastock or something, just plot the ratio of the dollar
>>price of gold divided by the S&P 500 over the last 100 years. And take
>>a look at the chart's extreme low points (stock market overvalued, gold
>>undervalued) and extreme high points (stock market undervalued, gold
>>overvalued).
>>
>>That ratio number hit an all-time low a couple years ago and has only
>>risen slightly since.
>
>
> Is this just numerology? Is there any theory that links the price of gold
> to a stock market index?

Supply and demand.
The stock market has to compete for investment dollars with hard assets
(precious metals, base metals, commodities).

I'm not linking the two as if they're correlated, just showing how the
stock market has its own long-term secular-bull periods and hard assets
have their own long-term secular-bull periods.

The secular-bear market for financial assets in the 1970's was caused by
stagflation. Stagflation may be bad news for the S&P 500 but it's good
news for hard assets. And the ratio number I mentioned increased from
its trough to its peak.

The opposite was true for both 1942-1966 and 1982-1999; noninflationary
prosperity was great news for the stock market but bad news for hard
assets. And in both cases, the ratio number declined, each time hitting
a new all-time low.

I believe that we are once again facing a return to 1970's style
socioeconomic conditions. Maybe not as severe, but in the same ballpark.


> I know it's not cool to say "it's different" but I think the US stock market
> has changed fundamentally since a hundred years ago. National stock markets
> used to be mechanisms for allocating capital within each country. With
> globalization and giant multi-nationals who derive most of their profits
> outside whatever country they happen to be incorporated in, the US markets
> have become capital allocators to the world

Nearly half of the world's stocks are traded on bourses outside the U.S.

Your argument that "this time it's different" seems to be predicated on
the sheer size of America's private sector and its global reach.

But the U.S. economy has had global reach since before you and I were
born. The Great Depression, which started in the U.S., quickly spread
to Europe (and probably gave Hitler his shot in the arm). After World
War II, the U.S. economy was the only large Free World economy that had
emerged unscathed. Europe's industry had been devastated by war. So
the U.S. became the world's economic underpinning.


> and the dollar has become the
> world's currency. I can't think of any other way to explain how we have
> gotten away with the massive twin deficits for so long.

The fact that the dollar has become the world's currency has nothing to
do with the rise of globalization. It has to do with the geopolitical
fact that the U.S. is the world's only superpower, and as such is the
bulwark of stability for the entire planet. Just as the pound sterling
was a hallmark of stability and a currency for the whole world, back
when the British Empire was the world's dominant power.

And that's what the world has been buying into. Because that's all that
backs the dollar anymore.

But the fact that the U.S. emerged from World War II in an even greater
position of dominance over Free World economies than it has today,
didn't prevent the stagflation of the 1970's and the huge run-up in gold
prices that resulted. Because times change. The run-up in gold prices
was a direct reflection of the world's new lack of confidence in the
U.S. dollar. That's what forced Nixon to suspend convertibility, but
that didn't fix the underlying problem.

And as I said, I think that the experience of the 1970's is about to
repeat itself.


--
Steven D. Litvintchouk
Email:

Remove the NOSPAM before replying to me.

Re: jingle bells, jingle bells

"Steven L." <> wrote in message
news:Kmphf.488$

[snip]

> > Is this just numerology? Is there any theory that links the price of
gold
> > to a stock market index?
>
> Supply and demand.
> The stock market has to compete for investment dollars with hard assets
> (precious metals, base metals, commodities).

Both compete with a lot of things including not putting money at risk at
all. That doesn't make all these things related two by two.

>
> I'm not linking the two as if they're correlated, just showing how the
> stock market has its own long-term secular-bull periods and hard assets
> have their own long-term secular-bull periods.

Absolutely true in both cases. What I am questioning is why you think you
can glean anything from watching the changes in the ratio between these two
markets. Might they just be independent of each other?

>
> The secular-bear market for financial assets in the 1970's was caused by
> stagflation. Stagflation may be bad news for the S&P 500 but it's good
> news for hard assets. And the ratio number I mentioned increased from
> its trough to its peak.

Was it good news? Did gold go up more than inflation? Obviously the
nominal price of gold rises during inflation. That is pretty much the
classical definition of inflation. But if inflation is all that is driving
the price of gold then you are not making gains (in terms of purchasing
power) but only avoiding a loss that would occur if you converted your gold
to dollars.


>
> The opposite was true for both 1942-1966 and 1982-1999; noninflationary
> prosperity was great news for the stock market but bad news for hard
> assets. And in both cases, the ratio number declined, each time hitting
> a new all-time low.

Why would prosperity be bad for gold (or any commodity)? If gold declined,
I have to think that there were other reasons. There are many more things
that impact the demand for gold than just monetary inflation.

>
> I believe that we are once again facing a return to 1970's style
> socioeconomic conditions. Maybe not as severe, but in the same ballpark.

Why? I just don't see it.

>
>
> > I know it's not cool to say "it's different" but I think the US stock
market
> > has changed fundamentally since a hundred years ago. National stock
markets
> > used to be mechanisms for allocating capital within each country. With
> > globalization and giant multi-nationals who derive most of their profits
> > outside whatever country they happen to be incorporated in, the US
markets
> > have become capital allocators to the world
>
> Nearly half of the world's stocks are traded on bourses outside the U.S.

Not by market cap, they aren't. Don't forget to include ADRs when you talk
about what does and does not trade on Wall Street.

>
> Your argument that "this time it's different" seems to be predicated on
> the sheer size of America's private sector and its global reach.

NO, I didn't mean it to be so predicated. Those might be included among the
reasons, but the predicate is that the world is willing to pour about $3B a
day into our financial markets and they are able to invest, there, in things
that are not even part of the US economy.

>
> But the U.S. economy has had global reach since before you and I were
> born. The Great Depression, which started in the U.S., quickly spread
> to Europe (and probably gave Hitler his shot in the arm). After World
> War II, the U.S. economy was the only large Free World economy that had
> emerged unscathed. Europe's industry had been devastated by war. So
> the U.S. became the world's economic underpinning.

This certainly put us on the current path but it didn't end with our being
the world's largest economy. I think it will continue until all of the
world's economies are as knitted together as, say, the US and Canada. The
language will be English, the currency will be the US dollar and the
financial capitol will be New York.

>
>
> > and the dollar has become the
> > world's currency. I can't think of any other way to explain how we have
> > gotten away with the massive twin deficits for so long.
>
> The fact that the dollar has become the world's currency has nothing to
> do with the rise of globalization. It has to do with the geopolitical
> fact that the U.S. is the world's only superpower, and as such is the
> bulwark of stability for the entire planet.

I think it has to do with all of the above and a lot more. Foreigners
didn't buy Treasuries yesterday because of what a potent superpower we are.
They wanted the relative safety, stability and tranparency of the dollar,
compared to the alternatives then available.

Just as the pound sterling
> was a hallmark of stability and a currency for the whole world, back
> when the British Empire was the world's dominant power.

First off, Sterling never dominated the world the way the dollar does,
today. Granted, England was once a contender for who would create the
global culture but I really think they lost that race the the US and would
have, even if the great wars of the last century never happened. The World
Wars merely accelerated the process (IMO).


>
> And that's what the world has been buying into. Because that's all that
> backs the dollar anymore.
>
> But the fact that the U.S. emerged from World War II in an even greater
> position of dominance over Free World economies than it has today,
> didn't prevent the stagflation of the 1970's and the huge run-up in gold
> prices that resulted. Because times change. The run-up in gold prices
> was a direct reflection of the world's new lack of confidence in the
> U.S. dollar. That's what forced Nixon to suspend convertibility, but
> that didn't fix the underlying problem.

I'm not saying that the US is dominating anything. I'm saying that the
emerging global culture is using dollars as its currency and that does
confer advantages on the US.

>
> And as I said, I think that the experience of the 1970's is about to
> repeat itself.

You do say that but I'm not sure I understand the basis for your prediction.
I know we both agree that you can't really predict but it is interesting to
talk about predicting just the same.

In my view: I'm very bullish in the long run on the dollar, large cap
multinational corprations (from US or Finland, etc.) and gold.

>
>
> --
> Steven D. Litvintchouk
> Email:
>
> Remove the NOSPAM before replying to me.
>
>