Does anyone have statistics on the percentage of contracts to buy a
home (signed by buyer and seller) that do not go through? What are the
most frequent causes of broken contracts? I am pleased to have found a
buyer for my home at the listing price, but I hope nothing goes wrong.
Looking for more contingencies is a way to prove to a seller it's a buyer's
market now. What other ways can you PROVE there's a slowdown?
--
All the best,
Keter Pardes
On 21 Dec 2005 05:50:21 -0800, > wrote:
> Does anyone have statistics on the percentage of contracts to buy a
> home (signed by buyer and seller) that do not go through? What are the
> most frequent causes of broken contracts? I am pleased to have found a
> buyer for my home at the listing price, but I hope nothing goes wrong.
To see some of the things that can go wrong check out the forums at
On 24-Dec-2005, (David Efflandt) wrote:
> > Does anyone have statistics on the percentage of contracts to buy a
> > home (signed by buyer and seller) that do not go through? What are the
> > most frequent causes of broken contracts? I am pleased to have found a
> > buyer for my home at the listing price, but I hope nothing goes wrong.
>
> To see some of the things that can go wrong check out the forums at
> advice.com/
useless
--
All the best,
Keter Pardes
Whats the purpose for proving this?
"Keter Pardes" <> wrote in message
news:QXBqf.20427$
> Looking for more contingencies is a way to prove to a seller it's a
buyer's
> market now. What other ways can you PROVE there's a slowdown?
>
> --
> All the best,
>
> Keter Pardes
<> wrote in message
news:
> Does anyone have statistics on the percentage of contracts to buy a
In general 20-25% residential transactions fall through.
www.AmericanWest.biz
> home (signed by buyer and seller) that do not go through? What are the
> most frequent causes of broken contracts? I am pleased to have found a
> buyer for my home at the listing price, but I hope nothing goes wrong.
>
Mark S. Oltedale wrote:
> Keter Pardes wrote:
>
> > Looking for more contingencies is a way to prove to a seller it's a
> > buyer's market now. What other ways can you PROVE there's a
> > slowdown?
>
> Whats the purpose for proving this?
On the surface the question was to show a seller what to expect.
A builder who's just completed a tract of new housing expecting
to see rapid sales will be hard documentation to demonstrate a
new expectation of slow sales of new units in the freshly completed
phase in the tract. Maybe Keter Pardes is a broker who does a
guarantee of sale in a certain time period and seeing the market
change has-just/is-about-to increase the time or drop the
guarantee.
I still see a few billboards by local realtors who offer a 30 day
sale guarantee or they pay a cash rebate. I rather expect such
signs to be changed to different wording in the next couple of
months.
Reading a bit between the lines, the list of newsgroups includes
some that revolve around new start construction. The best time to
do new start construction is just past the peak (pit?) of a buyer's
market to time completions at the start of a sellers' market. An
attempt at market timing.
On a more broad stroke, the type of market determines which
strategies to use. Be the contrarian - Sell in a buyers' market,
buy in a sellers' market. If we're in a buyers' market phase then
it's time to accelerate purchases and increase the number of
units in your portfolio. The use of the word "prove" and the
capitalization of it suggest where Keter is on the scale of
aggressive/conservative.
On 28-Dec-2005, "Doug Freyburger" <> wrote:
> > Keter Pardes wrote:
> >
> > > Looking for more contingencies is a way to prove to a seller it's a
> > > buyer's market now. What other ways can you PROVE there's a
> > > slowdown?
> >
> > Whats the purpose for proving this?
>
> On the surface the question was to show a seller what to expect.
> A builder who's just completed a tract of new housing expecting
> to see rapid sales will be hard documentation to demonstrate a
> new expectation of slow sales of new units in the freshly completed
> phase in the tract. Maybe Keter Pardes is a broker who does a
> guarantee of sale in a certain time period and seeing the market
> change has-just/is-about-to increase the time or drop the
> guarantee.
The general public will take my word for it, Investors on the other hand are
much tougher customers. They want proof, and want to be shown HOW I arrived
at my conclusions.
--
All the best,
Keter Pardes
On 28-Dec-2005, "Doug Freyburger" <> wrote:
> Reading a bit between the lines, the list of newsgroups includes
> some that revolve around new start construction. The best time to
> do new start construction is just past the peak (pit?) of a buyer's
> market to time completions at the start of a sellers' market. An
> attempt at market timing.
>
> On a more broad stroke, the type of market determines which
> strategies to use. Be the contrarian - Sell in a buyers' market,
> buy in a sellers' market. If we're in a buyers' market phase then
> it's time to accelerate purchases and increase the number of
> units in your portfolio. The use of the word "prove" and the
> capitalization of it suggest where Keter is on the scale of
> aggressive/conservative.
I've done about 1500 transactions and my gut tells me we've peaked. I've
delveloped a knack for pricing houses but this has come from experience. I
would like to show others a more scientific way to get accurate results. It
just seems no one can specifically tell me how to do it.
--
All the best,
Keter Pardes
Keter Pardes wrote:
> Doug Freyburger wrote:
>
> > On a more broad stroke, the type of market determines which
> > strategies to use. Be the contrarian - Sell in a buyers' market,
> > buy in a sellers' market. If we're in a buyers' market phase then
> > it's time to accelerate purchases and increase the number of
> > units in your portfolio.
>
> I've done about 1500 transactions and my gut tells me we've peaked. I've
> delveloped a knack for pricing houses but this has come from experience. I
> would like to show others a more scientific way to get accurate results. It
> just seems no one can specifically tell me how to do it.
Modelling price trends based on past performance and current
inventory is something done regularly by stock market
analysts. The statistics involved are lower division college
courses for math majors, upper division for economists majors,
masters level for buiness majors. Regression analysis,
least squares fit, data smoothing formuli. The place to look
for the math is textbooks on microeconomics or technical books
by stock market analsts.
I would be (pleasantly) surprised to find such material in any
book on real estate rather than on stock/commodity markets.
Most material I've read is about acheiving a positive cash flow on
a single property not using market trends as if I'm dealing in
commodity futures.
Doug Freyburger wrote:
> Keter Pardes wrote:
> > Doug Freyburger wrote:
>
> > > On a more broad stroke, the type of market determines which
> > > strategies to use. Be the contrarian - Sell in a buyers' market,
> > > buy in a sellers' market. If we're in a buyers' market phase then
> > > it's time to accelerate purchases and increase the number of
> > > units in your portfolio.
>
> > I've done about 1500 transactions and my gut tells me we've peaked. I've
> > delveloped a knack for pricing houses but this has come from experience. I
> > would like to show others a more scientific way to get accurate results. It
> > just seems no one can specifically tell me how to do it.
>
> Modelling price trends based on past performance and current
> inventory is something done regularly by stock market
> analysts.
Thinking on this, what you'll end up with is a curve that predicts
house prices. Whether the prediction is accurate or not only
time can tell. But the curve tells something important - If you
are buying negative cash flow properties banking on appreciation
exceeding the negative cash flow, your prediction curve better
stay reasonably straight or up. It the direction of the curve is
towards down you're predicting lack of appreciation, not good
for negative cash flow properties.
I recently saw a presentation for negative cash flow properties
in Phoenix, AZ (I'm in Chicago metro) that cited historical
appreciation rates to justify the negative cash flows. Hmmm,
looking at the historical curve and seeing what direction the
bend is moving towards becomes important in such a case.
Hello, to get better exposure, I recommend listing this on
www.westlist.com - they just redid the real estate community and it's a good
time to list free. You can list as anonymous but I recommend making an
account if you are a realtor.
Whether you are a Home Buyer, Seller, Real Estate Investor, or just looking
for some real estate advice, you'll find a wealth of valuable resources
there.
Email me for any questions,
Best wishes,
~Lina
"Doug Freyburger" <> wrote in message
news:
> Keter Pardes wrote:
>> Doug Freyburger wrote:
>>
>> > On a more broad stroke, the type of market determines which
>> > strategies to use. Be the contrarian - Sell in a buyers' market,
>> > buy in a sellers' market. If we're in a buyers' market phase then
>> > it's time to accelerate purchases and increase the number of
>> > units in your portfolio.
>>
>> I've done about 1500 transactions and my gut tells me we've peaked. I've
>> delveloped a knack for pricing houses but this has come from experience.
>> I
>> would like to show others a more scientific way to get accurate results.
>> It
>> just seems no one can specifically tell me how to do it.
>
> Modelling price trends based on past performance and current
> inventory is something done regularly by stock market
> analysts. The statistics involved are lower division college
> courses for math majors, upper division for economists majors,
> masters level for buiness majors. Regression analysis,
> least squares fit, data smoothing formuli. The place to look
> for the math is textbooks on microeconomics or technical books
> by stock market analsts.
>
> I would be (pleasantly) surprised to find such material in any
> book on real estate rather than on stock/commodity markets.
> Most material I've read is about acheiving a positive cash flow on
> a single property not using market trends as if I'm dealing in
> commodity futures.
>
>