2006 startup ideas

Preface - Coming out of andex significantly; need better largecap
returns. Little gold (not indicated) may be gone tomorrow; Mexico
isn't looking to stand much longer. Style - Of 20 funds, will return
to 30 while the creek don't rise; nice to do 50(?+) sometime with +>
money flows (spreadsheet only). High turn over is possible. Objective -
Weighted real returns on present market conditions supplant speculation
and may outweigh strict asset allocation; a cutthroat conservation with
U.S. bias inclusive to 60%. Experience - 2 years extensively w/ funds
that come and go. Performance - 11% annum should have been 16% (we
fired a greedy manager adversely churning last year). ER - about
$1,500 comissions and fees on a year and some, since our contact
stopped free mutual fund trading, at a little more than 3/4 percent.
End Qrtly - 40% reserves.

laregecap 14%
andex - large blend, value, (hedge all) *closed
NPRTX - large blend, growth

midcap 27%
JORNX - midcap, growth
TAVFX - midcap, blend
TWHIX - midcap, growth

smallcap 9%
BRSGX - smallcap, growth
RYPRX - smallcap, blend

real estate 3%
TAREX - real estate *closed

bond/equity 7%
OAKBX - moderate equity (up to 50% bonds)

world 15%
anglx - world allocation, large value
TAVIX - world small/mid value *closed
TIVFX - world small/mid value

east europe 5%
eurox - eastern europe

asia/japan 14%
ICARX - asia region, large growth
VPACX - asia region, pacific index
UJPIX - (Nikkei 225)x2

mexico 2%
EWW

Re: 2006 startup ideas

FWIW, I don't generally look for domestic large cap funds but do own a lot
of PRWCX, also some OAKBX.

For small cap, I use FLPSX (my only connection with Fidelity) and some
ETF'S/CEF's.
FUND, PZI, FDM, RMT, RVT.

For mid cap I use TRMCX and some of the ETF's.

International, I use TRIGX and TBGVX.
Also use lots of ETF's and CEF's in this area.
Own EWJ for Japan. Good CEF's in this area but I'd like to see them cheaper.

All the tickers that end in 'X' are in my "buy and hold" group, the rest are
for trading.


"Flasherly" <> wrote in message
news:
> Preface - Coming out of andex significantly; need better largecap
> returns. Little gold (not indicated) may be gone tomorrow; Mexico
> isn't looking to stand much longer. Style - Of 20 funds, will return
> to 30 while the creek don't rise; nice to do 50(?+) sometime with +>
> money flows (spreadsheet only). High turn over is possible. Objective -
> Weighted real returns on present market conditions supplant speculation
> and may outweigh strict asset allocation; a cutthroat conservation with
> U.S. bias inclusive to 60%. Experience - 2 years extensively w/ funds
> that come and go. Performance - 11% annum should have been 16% (we
> fired a greedy manager adversely churning last year). ER - about
> $1,500 comissions and fees on a year and some, since our contact
> stopped free mutual fund trading, at a little more than 3/4 percent.
> End Qrtly - 40% reserves.
>
> laregecap 14%
> andex - large blend, value, (hedge all) *closed
> NPRTX - large blend, growth
>
> midcap 27%
> JORNX - midcap, growth
> TAVFX - midcap, blend
> TWHIX - midcap, growth
>
> smallcap 9%
> BRSGX - smallcap, growth
> RYPRX - smallcap, blend
>
> real estate 3%
> TAREX - real estate *closed
>
> bond/equity 7%
> OAKBX - moderate equity (up to 50% bonds)
>
> world 15%
> anglx - world allocation, large value
> TAVIX - world small/mid value *closed
> TIVFX - world small/mid value
>
> east europe 5%
> eurox - eastern europe
>
> asia/japan 14%
> ICARX - asia region, large growth
> VPACX - asia region, pacific index
> UJPIX - (Nikkei 225)x2
>
> mexico 2%
> EWW
>

Re: 2006 startup ideas

"Mark Freeland" <> wrote

>> If you do year by year total returns on a $10,000 investment there
>> isn't much out there that would have put you further ahead.
>> If you can find one, it won't have a bear market decile of 2, or a SD
>> lower than 8.67.
>
> Oakmark Equity and Income. Bear market decile of 1, standard deviation
> under 7, lower cost, and open, to boot.

Wrong category. TBGVX is a "Foreign Small/Mid Cap Value" fund.
OAKBX is a "Moderate Allocation" fund. Apples and oranges.
I own both though.

> Three year standard deviation is not a metric that I would personally
> use, because I'd rather have a fund that went up 10% one year and 20%
> the next, than a fund that went up 10% year after year (zero
> volatility). Also, the variation of this fund is distorted (reduced) by
> the fact that it hedges currency (while exposure to currency vagaries is
> IMHO a reason to own a foreign fund).

How do I find a fund that goes up 10% one year and 20% the next?
Do you have a list? TBGVX actually looks like such a fund.

> Small cap value foreign has been a hot M* fund category - *all* 63 of
> those funds (counting share classes as separate funds) have outperformed
> the MSCI EAFE over the past five years, except for Hallmark Int'l. If I
> were looking for a fund in this category, I might go with Artisan Int'l
> - slightly lower cost, significantly better alpha (8.75 vs. 5.4 for TB),
> significantly better performance over its lifetime, and a much smaller
> asset base.

I never thought of TBGVX as a hot fund. I have owned it more than once, the
most recent time starting in 2002, a down year.
Still, $10,000 invested in the fund at the start of 2002 would be worth
$14,780 now and I'm happy with that.

Artisan International Small Cap has done better, much higher returns, since
the start of 2002, but it has an inception date of Dec 21, 2001 so it had no
history, no alpha, nothing. What are the chances that ARTJX will beat TBGVX
over the next 5 years?

The Artisan fund has 23% of assets in emerging markets, this would explain
the out performance. I prefer to keep my emerging markets stuff separately.

Re: 2006 startup ideas

Ed wrote:
>
> "Mark Freeland" <> wrote
>
> >> If you do year by year total returns on a $10,000 investment there
> >> isn't much out there that would have put you further ahead.
> >> If you can find one, it won't have a bear market decile of 2, or a
> >> SD lower than 8.67.
> >
> > Oakmark Equity and Income. Bear market decile of 1, standard
> > deviation under 7, lower cost, and open, to boot.
>
> Wrong category.

Where in the above did you specify category? You are often comparing
fund performance with S&P 500, regardless of the fund's category. I
simply applied your methodology - you picked the reference (TBGVX), and
I compared the fund universe to it.

> TBGVX is a "Foreign Small/Mid Cap Value" fund.
> OAKBX is a "Moderate Allocation" fund. Apples and oranges.

I'll remind you of that the next time you post a message saying "here
are funds that beat the S&P 500" for each fund that is not a large cap
blend fund.


(List of funds you predicted would beat the S&P 500 - not a single
LCBlend fund among them.)


(Note comparing two moderate allocation funds with the S&P 500 index;
apples and oranges, I believe you said, above.)

> > Three year standard deviation is not a metric that I would personally
> > use, because I'd rather have a fund that went up 10% one year and 20%
> > the next, than a fund that went up 10% year after year (zero
> > volatility). Also, the variation of this fund is distorted (reduced)
> > by the fact that it hedges currency (while exposure to currency
> > vagaries is IMHO a reason to own a foreign fund).
>
> How do I find a fund that goes up 10% one year and 20% the next?

I was explaining, conceptually, a significant failing in standard
deviation. If you want to find funds with widely varying performance,
look for high standard deviations. That's precisely the point. And if
you want them to have high relative performance, despite the volatility,
look for higher alphas (see below).

> > Small cap value foreign has been a hot M* fund category - *all* 63
> > of those funds (counting share classes as separate funds) have
> > outperformed the MSCI EAFE over the past five years, except for
> > Hallmark Int'l. If I were looking for a fund in this category, I
> > might go with Artisan Int'l - slightly lower cost, significantly
> > better alpha (8.75 vs. 5.4 for TB), significantly better performance
> > over its lifetime, and a much smaller asset base.
>
> I never thought of TBGVX as a hot fund.

Absolutely right - it's a cold fund in a hot category (rising tide
lifting all boats; just less so for this particular boat.)


> I have owned it more than once, the
> most recent time starting in 2002, a down year.
> Still, $10,000 invested in the fund at the start of 2002 would be worth
> $14,780 now and I'm happy with that.

$15,000+ using M* data, but who's counting?

$10K invested in almost any of the other 63 funds in the category would
have done better (even after having paid the load on several of them).
You're feeling happy because of the category selection, not the fund
selection.

> Artisan International Small Cap has done better, much higher returns,
> since the start of 2002, but it has an inception date of Dec 21, 2001
> so it had no history, no alpha, nothing. What are the chances that
> ARTJX will beat TBGVX over the next 5 years?

As you said above - apples and oranges - growth vs. value. What are the
chances that ARTJX will be in a higher 5 year performance percentile in
its category than TBGVX will be in its category? I'd say pretty high.
It is working with 1/10 the asset base (and is also closed), it doesn't
have to pay hedging costs, and hasn't recently taken on two new
managers.

On the other hand, if you're asking about ARTKX, then at least that's an
apples-apples question. I already answered that - "If I were looking
for a fund in this category, I might go with Artisan Int'l [Value]."
>
> The Artisan fund has 23% of assets in emerging markets, this would
> explain the out performance.

Perhaps. But ARTKX has a nearly identical profile to TBGVX:
ARTKX TBGVX
N. America 3% 8%
UK/W. Eur 72% 74%
Japan 13% 7%
L. America 2% 2%
Asia x/Jpn 9% 8%
Other 1% 0%


> I prefer to keep my emerging markets stuff separately.

I don't. I pay for active management, and I expect managers to manage.
If that's your philosophy, why not own separate Europe, Japan, and EM
funds, rather than an international fund like this one (which is
basically a European fund, once one throws out the EM stuff you don't
want there anyway)?
--
Mark Freeland

Re: 2006 startup ideas

Mark. I used your address after your name to send you an e-mail but the
system rejected it. Can you send me a working address please so I can send
you the contest ID and Password?

David

"Mark Freeland" <> wrote in message
news:
> Ed wrote:
>>
>> "Mark Freeland" <> wrote
>>
>> >> If you do year by year total returns on a $10,000 investment there
>> >> isn't much out there that would have put you further ahead.
>> >> If you can find one, it won't have a bear market decile of 2, or a
>> >> SD lower than 8.67.
>> >
>> > Oakmark Equity and Income. Bear market decile of 1, standard
>> > deviation under 7, lower cost, and open, to boot.
>>
>> Wrong category.
>
> Where in the above did you specify category? You are often comparing
> fund performance with S&P 500, regardless of the fund's category. I
> simply applied your methodology - you picked the reference (TBGVX), and
> I compared the fund universe to it.
>
>> TBGVX is a "Foreign Small/Mid Cap Value" fund.
>> OAKBX is a "Moderate Allocation" fund. Apples and oranges.
>
> I'll remind you of that the next time you post a message saying "here
> are funds that beat the S&P 500" for each fund that is not a large cap
> blend fund.
>
>
> (List of funds you predicted would beat the S&P 500 - not a single
> LCBlend fund among them.)
>
>
> (Note comparing two moderate allocation funds with the S&P 500 index;
> apples and oranges, I believe you said, above.)
>
>> > Three year standard deviation is not a metric that I would personally
>> > use, because I'd rather have a fund that went up 10% one year and 20%
>> > the next, than a fund that went up 10% year after year (zero
>> > volatility). Also, the variation of this fund is distorted (reduced)
>> > by the fact that it hedges currency (while exposure to currency
>> > vagaries is IMHO a reason to own a foreign fund).
>>
>> How do I find a fund that goes up 10% one year and 20% the next?
>
> I was explaining, conceptually, a significant failing in standard
> deviation. If you want to find funds with widely varying performance,
> look for high standard deviations. That's precisely the point. And if
> you want them to have high relative performance, despite the volatility,
> look for higher alphas (see below).
>
>> > Small cap value foreign has been a hot M* fund category - *all* 63
>> > of those funds (counting share classes as separate funds) have
>> > outperformed the MSCI EAFE over the past five years, except for
>> > Hallmark Int'l. If I were looking for a fund in this category, I
>> > might go with Artisan Int'l - slightly lower cost, significantly
>> > better alpha (8.75 vs. 5.4 for TB), significantly better performance
>> > over its lifetime, and a much smaller asset base.
>>
>> I never thought of TBGVX as a hot fund.
>
> Absolutely right - it's a cold fund in a hot category (rising tide
> lifting all boats; just less so for this particular boat.)
>
>
>> I have owned it more than once, the
>> most recent time starting in 2002, a down year.
>> Still, $10,000 invested in the fund at the start of 2002 would be worth
>> $14,780 now and I'm happy with that.
>
> $15,000+ using M* data, but who's counting?
>
> $10K invested in almost any of the other 63 funds in the category would
> have done better (even after having paid the load on several of them).
> You're feeling happy because of the category selection, not the fund
> selection.
>
>> Artisan International Small Cap has done better, much higher returns,
>> since the start of 2002, but it has an inception date of Dec 21, 2001
>> so it had no history, no alpha, nothing. What are the chances that
>> ARTJX will beat TBGVX over the next 5 years?
>
> As you said above - apples and oranges - growth vs. value. What are the
> chances that ARTJX will be in a higher 5 year performance percentile in
> its category than TBGVX will be in its category? I'd say pretty high.
> It is working with 1/10 the asset base (and is also closed), it doesn't
> have to pay hedging costs, and hasn't recently taken on two new
> managers.
>
> On the other hand, if you're asking about ARTKX, then at least that's an
> apples-apples question. I already answered that - "If I were looking
> for a fund in this category, I might go with Artisan Int'l [Value]."
>>
>> The Artisan fund has 23% of assets in emerging markets, this would
>> explain the out performance.
>
> Perhaps. But ARTKX has a nearly identical profile to TBGVX:
> ARTKX TBGVX
> N. America 3% 8%
> UK/W. Eur 72% 74%
> Japan 13% 7%
> L. America 2% 2%
> Asia x/Jpn 9% 8%
> Other 1% 0%
>
>
>> I prefer to keep my emerging markets stuff separately.
>
> I don't. I pay for active management, and I expect managers to manage.
> If that's your philosophy, why not own separate Europe, Japan, and EM
> funds, rather than an international fund like this one (which is
> basically a European fund, once one throws out the EM stuff you don't
> want there anyway)?
> --
> Mark Freeland
>

Re: 2006 startup ideas

"Mark Freeland" <> wrote

> Where in the above did you specify category? You are often comparing
> fund performance with S&P 500, regardless of the fund's category. I
> simply applied your methodology - you picked the reference (TBGVX), and
> I compared the fund universe to it.

When I look for funds they are usually in one category or another and I
ALWAYS compare the fund to others in the same group. My goal is to
outperform the S&P500 each calendar year using anything that's acceptable
and available to me. These are unrelated.

>> TBGVX is a "Foreign Small/Mid Cap Value" fund.
>> OAKBX is a "Moderate Allocation" fund. Apples and oranges.
>
> I'll remind you of that the next time you post a message saying "here
> are funds that beat the S&P 500" for each fund that is not a large cap
> blend fund.

I hope I explained that above.

>
> (List of funds you predicted would beat the S&P 500 - not a single
> LCBlend fund among them.)

I don't think of the S&P500 as a fund unless I'm shopping for a LCB fund. To
me it's just a target.

>> I never thought of TBGVX as a hot fund.
>
> Absolutely right - it's a cold fund in a hot category (rising tide
> lifting all boats; just less so for this particular boat.)
>
>
>> I have owned it more than once, the
>> most recent time starting in 2002, a down year.
>> Still, $10,000 invested in the fund at the start of 2002 would be worth
>> $14,780 now and I'm happy with that.
>
> $15,000+ using M* data, but who's counting?

I used data from Tweedy through 11/30/05.

> $10K invested in almost any of the other 63 funds in the category would
> have done better (even after having paid the load on several of them).
> You're feeling happy because of the category selection, not the fund
> selection.

TBGVX has a consistancy that makes me 'happy'. It is the fund selection.

>> Artisan International Small Cap has done better, much higher returns,
>> since the start of 2002, but it has an inception date of Dec 21, 2001
>> so it had no history, no alpha, nothing. What are the chances that
>> ARTJX will beat TBGVX over the next 5 years?
>
> As you said above - apples and oranges - growth vs. value.

You are right, my error.

> On the other hand, if you're asking about ARTKX, then at least that's an
> apples-apples question. I already answered that - "If I were looking
> for a fund in this category, I might go with Artisan Int'l [Value]."
>>
>> The Artisan fund has 23% of assets in emerging markets, this would
>> explain the out performance.
>
> Perhaps. But ARTKX has a nearly identical profile to TBGVX:
> ARTKX TBGVX
> N. America 3% 8%
> UK/W. Eur 72% 74%
> Japan 13% 7%
> L. America 2% 2%
> Asia x/Jpn 9% 8%
> Other 1% 0%
>
>
>> I prefer to keep my emerging markets stuff separately.
>
> I don't. I pay for active management, and I expect managers to manage.

The problem is that you seldom get what you want.

> If that's your philosophy, why not own separate Europe, Japan, and EM
> funds, rather than an international fund like this one (which is
> basically a European fund, once one throws out the EM stuff you don't
> want there anyway)?

I do own single country funds. I keep the tamer stuff, buy and hold, with
Tweedy and T. Rowe Price.
I try to enhance portfolio returns with my own active management.
> --
> Mark Freeland
>

Re: 2006 startup ideas

Ed wrote:
> FWIW, I don't generally look for domestic large cap funds but do own a lot
> of PRWCX, also some OAKBX.

Overtime and weary holidays. Had in my notes (amongst lots of things I
put and forget in there) what I didn't notice, PTWZX, Jennison 20/20
Focus C. All cleaned up and tagged obtainably ready for receiving.
Nowhere near a style of ADREX (hedging), but with a better run on the
money, especially coming on for the later part of this year, given a
loose grasp for large capitalization assets I broadly lack. 25% YTD
seems a nice figure to qualify for shifting.



It could be what I've been looking at for some time now, are alpha
representations when I sift charts. I'll also have a closer look at
Morningstar's site, which Al has seconded - the qualifier Morningstar
provides for a same-style category, graphically, looks to be
interesting by way of deviation. I've to some extent an unacceptable
arbitrariness in comparing same-fund styles explicitly for repeat
performance. What I do within a same disagreeableness for short-term
plays, if need be -- a contingency forsight has to account, best I can
figure, without which, excesive churning will be the unfortunate
outcome. Market momentum, a stigma timing deficiently incorporates, in
order so not to be within adverse conditions without sufficient prior
holding to acceptably trade out. I like that focus.