Nasdaq 100

Doing great isn't it.
Up 4.2946342% since it opened Tuesday.

Re: Nasdaq 100

I am on the wrong side of it in the contest, but I am just
following a mechanical system, which had given me a sell
signal in late December. I don't want to override the system, but it
looks like it is turning around today.

Kaspa

Re: Nasdaq 100

Ed wrote:

> Doing great isn't it.
> Up 4.2946342% since it opened Tuesday.

As I predicted would happen in the New Year, there's euphoria over the
hope that the new Fed chairman, Bernanke, will be more dovish about
fighting inflation by raising interest rates. And that easy money will
boost the U.S. economy.

They should think twice. In the longer term, accelerating inflation is
bad news for the stock market. The price of gold in dollars has already
risen to around $539 (from $420 a year ago), despite all the Fed rate
increases to date. That is a reliable indicator of worsening inflation
ahead (or more Fed rate increases to head off the inflation).


--
Steven D. Litvintchouk
Email:

Remove the NOSPAM before replying to me.

Re: Nasdaq 100

"Steven L." <> wrote

> As I predicted would happen in the New Year, there's euphoria over the
> hope that the new Fed chairman, Bernanke, will be more dovish about
> fighting inflation by raising interest rates. And that easy money will
> boost the U.S. economy.

Of the last 4 Fed Chairman replacements, 3 were followed by bear markets, on
was already in a bear market.

Re: Nasdaq 100

Naz has been doing well for 6 months too...


May be a dangerous mixture of overvalued and good stocks; is a managed
fund the best way to play this? I had hopes for semi-dynamic etf PWO,
which hasn't done that well. Any good managed funds to play nasdaq
other than the most rock bottom expensed index fund under etrade?
Maybe something with the courage to liquidate equity when the going
gets rough, more than only fine tuning during good times.

Re: Nasdaq 100

Looks like keeping naz out of the red may depend on google doubling
every year...

(add up ytd returns on top 10 holdings)

Re: Nasdaq 100

"Steven L." <> wrote in message
news:onzvf.4359$
> Ed wrote:
>
> > Doing great isn't it.
> > Up 4.2946342% since it opened Tuesday.
>
> As I predicted would happen in the New Year, there's euphoria over the
> hope that the new Fed chairman, Bernanke, will be more dovish about
> fighting inflation by raising interest rates. And that easy money will
> boost the U.S. economy.
>
> They should think twice. In the longer term, accelerating inflation is
> bad news for the stock market. The price of gold in dollars has already
> risen to around $539 (from $420 a year ago), despite all the Fed rate
> increases to date. That is a reliable indicator of worsening inflation
> ahead (or more Fed rate increases to head off the inflation).
>
Steven:

I wonder if the price of gold is a "reliable indicator of worsening
inflation ahead." In classical economics it certainly was, but this was in
a world where most people were barred from owning gold and it was used
primarily as a way of correcting currency imbalances among central banks.

Today there are many other reasons to hold gold. We have added a couple of
billion new capitalists to the system recently, mostly from countries where
unstable currencies and the holding of gold as wealth have been longstanding
traditions. Also, since investors are no longer barred from holding gold,
there is a certain amount of speculative demand (people are buying it simply
because the think demand will increase irrespective of their opinions about
the value of the dollar).

As wealth rises, the propensity to consume gold (jewelry, etc.) also rises.

I am still skeptical about inflation taking root in the globalized world
economy. Producers just don't have the power to raise prices that they used
to have. Certainly the cost of scarce commodities will rise with demand but
that is not inflation, per se.

-herb

Re: Nasdaq 100

Ed wrote:
> Doing great isn't it.
> Up 4.2946342% since it opened Tuesday.

A lot of clamoring mouths trying to outscream each other over $6K
returns in four days at roughly 75% exposure; which to feed first.
Pacific and Russian issues are thick and running hard with gold.

Re: Nasdaq 100

Kaspa, this is the problem with many momentum based systems (which is what I
use). I've entered 3 other contests and will be getting into the mimf
challenge (now that I know it has nothing to do with reality).

I got burned in the other contests for exactly the reason you mention,
getting in mid-cycle, and not on a particular buy or sell..... in the mimf
contest, here, I won't do any buying until I get a switch... I'll just sit
in cash till then.

Happy Guy, "Laissez les bons temps roulez"
..
..
"Kaspakhine" <> wrote in message
news:
>I am on the wrong side of it in the contest, but I am just
> following a mechanical system, which had given me a sell
> signal in late December. I don't want to override the system, but it
> looks like it is turning around today.
>
> Kaspa
>

Re: Nasdaq 100

Howdy herb/all,

Gotta agree with herb on the demand side of the gold market. Sure,
there is some concern about inflation, but most inflation these days is
in commodities relative to all currencies. Nada in mfg goods or
services. So, inflation concerns make up a portion of the demand for
gold. However, you also have supply side limitations of the central
banks. Most of already sold their stash and can no longer add to the
supply in order to micromanage the price of gold.

However, the big demand side dog has been from asia and the middle
east. It's been two years since the chinese were allowed to own gold -
and with little or no retirement system, gold becomes an alternative.
This follows the pattern of India where gold has long been the
retirement/social security of many Indians, particularly women. Now
that the kid has a good job writing code or answering phones, what do
they buy momma on her birthday or for christmas? BLING. Same/same for
china and japan. How about all those petrodollars floating around the
middle east? Same/same. You only need so many greenbacks in the barn
before the utility of more greenbacks diminshes relative to
alternatives - and gold is a huge alternative.

Nopers, much of the recent demand for gold has been demand driven but
NOT as a hedge against inflation as the talking heads keep saying.
And this is why if there is even a whiff of inflation that increases
demand, gold's going to $1000 in a heartbeat.

peace,

rono