February slowdown?

Wouldn't be surprised. Expect big jump thereafter throughout 2006. Take
a look at this guy's blog...

www.rationalinvesting.blogspot.com

Re: February slowdown?

"Captain_Gain" <> wrote in message
news:
> Wouldn't be surprised.

I recall reading that February is usually a bad month for U.S. equities.

> Expect big jump thereafter throughout 2006. Take
> a look at this guy's blog...
>
> www.rationalinvesting.blogspot.com

I disagree...there are several bearish signs out there right now, most
notably:

1. Inverted yield curve...a recession of some sort has followed in 8 of the
last 9 times...experts interviewed on CNBC usually look at the 2-year vs.
the 10-year, and that hasn't quite inverted...yet. But it very well could
after the March FOMC meeting. Treasury yields from the weekend's Barron's
showed:
1-year...... 4.56%
2-year.......4.48%...meaning the return for the 1/07-1/08 period would be
4.40%, a decrease from the next 12 months
3-year.......4.45%

2. An end to rate increases by the FOMC...also has historically resulted in
decreases in stock prices.

3. Off election years...in the 4-year cycle of elections, the year of
mid-term elections has done the worst...according to International Strategy
& Investments chart in Money:
First year in office: +5.4%
Second year: +4.3%...but higher for GOP presidents at 6.6%
Third year: +17.4%
Fourth year: +8.6%
....not bearish, just an indication of a less than stellar year

4. Baby Boomers born in '46 turn 59½ this year, potentially resulting in
selling or shifting away from riskier equities.

5. Potentially overvalued dollar, resulting in foreign investors moving
dollars out of the U.S. equity markets into other markets.

Of course, earnings drive people's perceptions, and people's perceptions
still drive the market. But higher oil prices and tighter money will lead
to tighter earnings...I doubt a big jump is in store.

D