Gold Forecasting???

Gold Forecasting???

am 03.02.2006 07:05:54 von Slim Bastard

Have been patiently sitting by waiting for gold to make a downward move to
fill some GLD & precious metals investments.
I noticed that all the ranges and volitility are intra day...does that
indicate that the new market homes for the precious metals groupings have
moved outside of the LME and NY???
Ditto palladium. Local investment dealers are unable to fill any physical
amount of the metal at any price, why?

Re: Gold Forecasting???

am 03.02.2006 20:40:07 von rono

Hi Slim,

Lot's of weird things on the demand side. The asian markets are huge.
I often notice spot prices up very early and when our markets open,
they taper off. There is demand coming from china, japan, and india
from citizens. There is also the fact that china, russia, and some
emerging mkt nations are starting to increase their reserves in their
central banks as an alternative to the major currencies, particularly
the dollar. And you've got a lot of petro-dollars finding gold as an
alternative to $. Some of the touts are saying that gold has now
become the 5th currency.

As for palladium, it's an industrial substitute for platinum and
platinum is at an all time high (today's pause ignored). This makes
palladium attractive in relative terms. The pure play is PAL which I
own, but has only recently gotten into the green. At one time, it was
down 60% in my account (I had lightened up). However, as it started
moving strongly last year, I reestablished my position.

I did some buying today of some small miners in the silver and other
metals arena. Bought BGO (Bema Gold), SVMFF.PK (Silvercorp Metals) and
YZCCF.PK.(Yukon Zinc).

peace,

rono

Re: Gold Forecasting???

am 04.02.2006 00:59:17 von sdlitvin

rono wrote:

> Hi Slim,
>
> Lot's of weird things on the demand side. The asian markets are huge.
> I often notice spot prices up very early and when our markets open,
> they taper off. There is demand coming from china, japan, and india
> from citizens. There is also the fact that china, russia, and some
> emerging mkt nations are starting to increase their reserves in their
> central banks as an alternative to the major currencies, particularly
> the dollar. And you've got a lot of petro-dollars finding gold as an
> alternative to $. Some of the touts are saying that gold has now
> become the 5th currency.

Not for long. There may be a brand-new "5th currency" imminent:

I read in Growth Fund Guide that on March 20, the new Iranian Oil Bourse
will finally open for business after two years of planning. Oil will
trade for euros. That may be an alternative to gold, but it is also an
alternative to the U.S. dollar. If oil is sold on world markets for
"(petro-)euros" as an alternative to (petro-)dollars, demand for the
dollar will plummet and then so will its value. (It will also be a
bribe to Europe to take no action against Iran's nuclear program. The
Europeans would like to see their euros replace the U.S. dollar as the
international exchange medium of choice.)

This is a major blow against the U.S. dollar as the "world's currency,"
something that Herb on this NG keeps pointing to proudly as evidence of
the power of "globalization" and evidence against a huge rise in the
price of gold. The last time nations started dumping dollars en masse
in the 1970's, the price of gold skyrocketed.

I haven't seen this story widely reported in the mainstream U.S. media,
but I did see it discussed on this blog here:




--
Steven D. Litvintchouk
Email:

Remove the NOSPAM before replying to me.

Re: Gold Forecasting???

am 04.02.2006 04:24:15 von Herb

"Steven L." <> wrote in message
news:p7SEf.10168$
> rono wrote:
>
> > Hi Slim,
> >
> > Lot's of weird things on the demand side. The asian markets are huge.
> > I often notice spot prices up very early and when our markets open,
> > they taper off. There is demand coming from china, japan, and india
> > from citizens. There is also the fact that china, russia, and some
> > emerging mkt nations are starting to increase their reserves in their
> > central banks as an alternative to the major currencies, particularly
> > the dollar. And you've got a lot of petro-dollars finding gold as an
> > alternative to $. Some of the touts are saying that gold has now
> > become the 5th currency.
>
> Not for long. There may be a brand-new "5th currency" imminent:
>
> I read in Growth Fund Guide that on March 20, the new Iranian Oil Bourse
> will finally open for business after two years of planning. Oil will
> trade for euros. That may be an alternative to gold, but it is also an
> alternative to the U.S. dollar. If oil is sold on world markets for
> "(petro-)euros" as an alternative to (petro-)dollars, demand for the
> dollar will plummet and then so will its value. (It will also be a
> bribe to Europe to take no action against Iran's nuclear program. The
> Europeans would like to see their euros replace the U.S. dollar as the
> international exchange medium of choice.)
>
> This is a major blow against the U.S. dollar as the "world's currency,"
> something that Herb on this NG keeps pointing to proudly as evidence of
> the power of "globalization" and evidence against a huge rise in the
> price of gold. The last time nations started dumping dollars en masse
> in the 1970's, the price of gold skyrocketed.
>
> I haven't seen this story widely reported in the mainstream U.S. media,
> but I did see it discussed on this blog here:

Steven:

Don't confuse my stridency with pride. You may be projecting your feelings
onto me. I don't particularly have any feelings about all of this, either
way. I'm just trying to coldly perceive reality as best I can from where I
am sitting.

Have you ever studied any economics? You keep repeating notions that were
quaint even back in the 70's when the neo-classical economists were in their
ascendancy. To cite events in the past when world trade worked on the gold
standard is rather like faulting quantum mechanics for failing to completely
comply with Newton's laws.

-herb