Shorting Gold funds/stox

Ran into a former neighbor of mine last week.
This guy had made it as far as VP of a major canadian brokerage house and
was given the nickname of 'senator'. (The nic in canadian circles alludes
to the fact that he represented 'old money' and loads of it.)

He and his clients are all shorting silver and gold while going long
platinum and group metals. This makes no sense to me other than his
explain'n of it by saying that plat group metals and miners will face high
demand from the auto industry to reduce air polution.

What do you guys think of this??? There are no pure plat group plays that i
can find, anyone know a balanced fund dealing in them???

Re: Shorting Gold funds/stox

Just did some fast calculations based on the us gov't holding 800 tons of
gold. Anyone know if this number is accurate????
"Slim Bastard" <> wrote in message
news:wayFf.6917$
> Ran into a former neighbor of mine last week.
> This guy had made it as far as VP of a major canadian brokerage house and
> was given the nickname of 'senator'. (The nic in canadian circles alludes
> to the fact that he represented 'old money' and loads of it.)
>
> He and his clients are all shorting silver and gold while going long
> platinum and group metals. This makes no sense to me other than his
> explain'n of it by saying that plat group metals and miners will face high
> demand from the auto industry to reduce air polution.
>
> What do you guys think of this??? There are no pure plat group plays that
> i can find, anyone know a balanced fund dealing in them???
>

Re: Shorting Gold funds/stox

I've opened a few put positions on miners as a hedge on a much
larger holding in some metal funds I own.

We could have topped out in gold and we may correct (minor or major?
that depends on how you define it).

It'll be an easy enough trend to spot if it happens. I think it could
happen as early as this week.

Slim Bastard <> wrote:
> Ran into a former neighbor of mine last week.
> This guy had made it as far as VP of a major canadian brokerage house and
> was given the nickname of 'senator'. (The nic in canadian circles alludes
> to the fact that he represented 'old money' and loads of it.)
>
> He and his clients are all shorting silver and gold while going long
> platinum and group metals. This makes no sense to me other than his
> explain'n of it by saying that plat group metals and miners will face high
> demand from the auto industry to reduce air polution.
>
> What do you guys think of this??? There are no pure plat group plays that i
> can find, anyone know a balanced fund dealing in them???
>
>

Re: Shorting Gold funds/stox

Who told you i just topped out the gold funds??? LOL.
These things have a tendancy to stay topish for extended periods.
Which miner is the best short out there short term?

"Sanjay" <> wrote in message
news:%qzFf.59447$
>
> I've opened a few put positions on miners as a hedge on a much
> larger holding in some metal funds I own.
>
> We could have topped out in gold and we may correct (minor or major?
> that depends on how you define it).
>
> It'll be an easy enough trend to spot if it happens. I think it could
> happen as early as this week.
>
> Slim Bastard <> wrote:
>> Ran into a former neighbor of mine last week.
>> This guy had made it as far as VP of a major canadian brokerage house and
>> was given the nickname of 'senator'. (The nic in canadian circles
>> alludes
>> to the fact that he represented 'old money' and loads of it.)
>>
>> He and his clients are all shorting silver and gold while going long
>> platinum and group metals. This makes no sense to me other than his
>> explain'n of it by saying that plat group metals and miners will face
>> high
>> demand from the auto industry to reduce air polution.
>>
>> What do you guys think of this??? There are no pure plat group plays
>> that i
>> can find, anyone know a balanced fund dealing in them???
>>
>>

Re: Shorting Gold funds/stox

Hi slim,

There are several folks/groups that think that gold is overextended and
due for a correction of 6-8% or so. And you can do this while staying
long term bullish on the metal.

Profunds has a short fund that shorts precious metals. However, this
is very tricky as it shorts all of them including silver and platinum.
If you wanted to short just gold, you'd have to use futures or
individual miners. Tricky.

I don't try to play short term swings as heretofore they've been much
more shallow than predicted and more less long lasting. This bull
market has been enormously strong.

2. 800 tons of US gold. er, this is the reported number, but most in
the community don't believe the actual metal exists and that these are
paper receipts for gold. Indeed, among a lot of the older CB's, using
paper gold for reserves has become pretty standard practice. This is
purported to be a real problem as so much of this reported gold is in
paper form, that if someone actually demanded delivery, the shock waves
would be enormous [read: it's felt there are more paper promises than
actual gold that could possibly be delivered.

So, while it may be true, I personally do not believe it exists in the
form of actual gold bullion in our vaults.

Oh, and I'm still way long and just bought a couple of pink sheet
silver miners this past friday Silvercorp Metals SVMFF.PK and Yukon
Zinc YZCCF.PK.

best,

rono

Re: Shorting Gold funds/stox

Picked up linear gold a canadian stock with supposedly huge silver reserves
in mexico. just would not want to be short gold or silver when it spikes,
could destroy you.

I expected gold down this am, its up $4. as this is being typed. Short
interest in the streetracks is HUGE.
"rono" <> wrote in message
news:
> Hi slim,
>
> There are several folks/groups that think that gold is overextended and
> due for a correction of 6-8% or so. And you can do this while staying
> long term bullish on the metal.
>
> Profunds has a short fund that shorts precious metals. However, this
> is very tricky as it shorts all of them including silver and platinum.
> If you wanted to short just gold, you'd have to use futures or
> individual miners. Tricky.
>
> I don't try to play short term swings as heretofore they've been much
> more shallow than predicted and more less long lasting. This bull
> market has been enormously strong.
>
> 2. 800 tons of US gold. er, this is the reported number, but most in
> the community don't believe the actual metal exists and that these are
> paper receipts for gold. Indeed, among a lot of the older CB's, using
> paper gold for reserves has become pretty standard practice. This is
> purported to be a real problem as so much of this reported gold is in
> paper form, that if someone actually demanded delivery, the shock waves
> would be enormous [read: it's felt there are more paper promises than
> actual gold that could possibly be delivered.
>
> So, while it may be true, I personally do not believe it exists in the
> form of actual gold bullion in our vaults.
>
> Oh, and I'm still way long and just bought a couple of pink sheet
> silver miners this past friday Silvercorp Metals SVMFF.PK and Yukon
> Zinc YZCCF.PK.
>
> best,
>
> rono
>

Re: Shorting Gold funds/stox

Slim Bastard <> wrote:
> Who told you i just topped out the gold funds??? LOL.
> These things have a tendancy to stay topish for extended periods.
> Which miner is the best short out there short term?

I picked up put positions on a few of them. Just check out the
precious metals section on yahoo and pick out a few of the big
ones.

My puts are for the September time frame. I think Gold will fall
more than 6-8% like Rono says. I'm guessing it might fall under
$500.

Look, this is just risk management to me. I don't know for sure
but since I'm so heavily into gold and oil it behooves me to take
out some insurance on them.

But I think gold will begin it's decline when the indexes do.
If by May this doesn't happen I doubt that it will happen at all.

I base this entirely on the chart. Fundamentals have nothing to do
with it.

If you believe history is any guide then you'll see that when gold
becomes this over extended it falls - easily giving up more than
30% of it's value.

There isn't a single instance of this not being true. It happened
as recently as 1999.

-Sanjay

Re: Shorting Gold funds/stox

rono wrote:

> Hi slim,
>
> There are several folks/groups that think that gold is overextended and
> due for a correction of 6-8% or so. And you can do this while staying
> long term bullish on the metal.
>
> Profunds has a short fund that shorts precious metals. However, this
> is very tricky as it shorts all of them including silver and platinum.
> If you wanted to short just gold, you'd have to use futures or
> individual miners. Tricky.

Fidelity allows you to sell some of their Select (sector) portfolios
short. I don't know if their Select Gold portfolio is one of them though.


--
Steven D. Litvintchouk
Email:

Remove the NOSPAM before replying to me.

Re: Shorting Gold funds/stox

"Steven L." <> wrote in message
news:MbNFf.14146$

> Fidelity allows you to sell some of their Select (sector) portfolios
> short. I don't know if their Select Gold portfolio is one of them though.

FWIW, old article (2000), says that Gold is one of the shortable funds:



--
Mark Freeland

Re: Shorting Gold funds/stox

Hi Slim, Sanjay/all,

Well, we just might be seeing the correction in the metals today.
Although they started out a tad soft, they've dropped off a bunch.
Gold is at 562.30 down 7.90, silver at 9.52 down .20, platinum at 1060
down 1 and palladium at 295 down 11. XAU figures are stale.

Now what will be of MAJOR importance, is what happens later today - not
only in the bullion market for gold, but the other metals as well, AND
what happens to the miners (and even here - large, medium and small).
What we're looking for is divergences between any of these factors -
something going opposite the others. AND heretofore, most of these
corrections have been very shallow and very short lived - and this is
what makes them so hard to play by themselves. So we want to check
depth and length.

peace,

rono

Re: Shorting Gold funds/stox

Mark Freeland wrote:

> "Steven L." <> wrote in message
> news:MbNFf.14146$
>
>
>>Fidelity allows you to sell some of their Select (sector) portfolios
>>short. I don't know if their Select Gold portfolio is one of them though.
>
>
> FWIW, old article (2000), says that Gold is one of the shortable funds:
>

Fine. Then if I were in the mood to short gold, that's the way I would go.

But I'm in no mood to short gold.


--
Steven D. Litvintchouk
Email:

Remove the NOSPAM before replying to me.

Re: Shorting Gold funds/stox

Good luck Rono. I hope you're right and I'm wrong on this one.

rono <> wrote:
> Hi Slim, Sanjay/all,
>
> Well, we just might be seeing the correction in the metals today.
> Although they started out a tad soft, they've dropped off a bunch.
> Gold is at 562.30 down 7.90, silver at 9.52 down .20, platinum at 1060
> down 1 and palladium at 295 down 11. XAU figures are stale.
>
> Now what will be of MAJOR importance, is what happens later today - not
> only in the bullion market for gold, but the other metals as well, AND
> what happens to the miners (and even here - large, medium and small).
> What we're looking for is divergences between any of these factors -
> something going opposite the others. AND heretofore, most of these
> corrections have been very shallow and very short lived - and this is
> what makes them so hard to play by themselves. So we want to check
> depth and length.
>
> peace,
>
> rono
>

Re: Shorting Gold funds/stox

The only thing i saw up today was UTS.to
all the other oils/miners took a 5%+++ cutting.
"Sanjay" <> wrote in message
news:3zbGf.126908$
> Good luck Rono. I hope you're right and I'm wrong on this one.
>
> rono <> wrote:
>> Hi Slim, Sanjay/all,
>>
>> Well, we just might be seeing the correction in the metals today.
>> Although they started out a tad soft, they've dropped off a bunch.
>> Gold is at 562.30 down 7.90, silver at 9.52 down .20, platinum at 1060
>> down 1 and palladium at 295 down 11. XAU figures are stale.
>>
>> Now what will be of MAJOR importance, is what happens later today - not
>> only in the bullion market for gold, but the other metals as well, AND
>> what happens to the miners (and even here - large, medium and small).
>> What we're looking for is divergences between any of these factors -
>> something going opposite the others. AND heretofore, most of these
>> corrections have been very shallow and very short lived - and this is
>> what makes them so hard to play by themselves. So we want to check
>> depth and length.
>>
>> peace,
>>
>> rono
>>