Negative comments about Real Estate?
am 24.02.2006 14:22:45 von Jun_YuAnybody has negative comments about Real Estate?
Anybody shorted it recently?
Anybody has negative comments about Real Estate?
Anybody shorted it recently?
Hi Jun,
Well, the demise of real estate has been greatly exaggerated, but
widely predicted - and predicted - and predicted. It's sort of like
the comeback of large cap growth and tech - anticipated for several
years now - to no avail.
And while they keep predicting the burstage of the housing bubble,
REIT's have continued to kick ass and generate great returns. Just
yesterday, Toll Bros (one of the nations largest residential builders),
reported break out earnings and numbers.
I guess it all revolves around how many more rate hikes and will they
be sufficient to serously slow the housing sector down. Right now,
from my perspective, I'm looking at 2 more for sure, and maybe 3.
Uncle Ben has to prove he's tough on inflation and there's serious
concern about it throughout the FOMC.
Even so, let's assume 3 more hikes, I don't think that will cause a
Bursting of the Bubble - just let a lot of air out and really crush
those folks that are playing games with designer mortgage vehicles -
particularly in the high end frothy markets like southern cal, vegas,
arizona, florida, etc.
So is this going to permit a shorting op with profunds? Geez, maybe a
little, but it doesn't look like enough of a sure thing to me.
However, I'd certainly be taking profits if I'd been invested in
REIT's.
just some ramblings,
rono
Real trade posted in real time. My "Buy" of SRPIX today posted more
than 6 hours before market closes today!
Other real trades posted in real time:
1)
2)
Anobody who wants can check date & time of the posts.