Japan -- Going where?

Japan -- Going where?

am 10.03.2006 01:45:09 von Good Analyst

After several years of zero interest rates as an anti-deflationary
mechanism, the Bank of Japan is now talking about increasing interest rates.
To me it sounds like good news and bad news. The good news is it
demonstrates the faith in the Japan economy's recovery. The bad news is that
the move is bound to deplete some of the enthusiasm and thus returns and
growth may, in turn, be depleted. Read the Washington Post article Japan
ends Anti-Deflation stance.

As far as year-to-date returns is concerned, the MSCI iShares is even (no
gain/no loss) and Fidelity Japan is down over 4% for the year so far. The
question is where we will see these to be at year end. My money is on an
8-12% return for the full year.

www.goodanalyst.com

Re: Japan -- Going where?

am 10.03.2006 02:59:13 von Arthur

Don't know their real reasons but another possible is to prop the Yen.

a
==

On Thu, 9 Mar 2006 19:45:09 -0500, "Good Analyst"
<> wrote:

>After several years of zero interest rates as an anti-deflationary
>mechanism, the Bank of Japan is now talking about increasing interest rates.
>To me it sounds like good news and bad news. The good news is it
>demonstrates the faith in the Japan economy's recovery. The bad news is that
>the move is bound to deplete some of the enthusiasm and thus returns and
>growth may, in turn, be depleted. Read the Washington Post article Japan
>ends Anti-Deflation stance.
>
>As far as year-to-date returns is concerned, the MSCI iShares is even (no
>gain/no loss) and Fidelity Japan is down over 4% for the year so far. The
>question is where we will see these to be at year end. My money is on an
>8-12% return for the full year.

Re: Japan -- Going where?

am 10.03.2006 02:59:13 von Arthur

Don't know their real reasons but another possible is to prop the Yen.

a
==

On Thu, 9 Mar 2006 19:45:09 -0500, "Good Analyst"
<> wrote:

>After several years of zero interest rates as an anti-deflationary
>mechanism, the Bank of Japan is now talking about increasing interest rates.
>To me it sounds like good news and bad news. The good news is it
>demonstrates the faith in the Japan economy's recovery. The bad news is that
>the move is bound to deplete some of the enthusiasm and thus returns and
>growth may, in turn, be depleted. Read the Washington Post article Japan
>ends Anti-Deflation stance.
>
>As far as year-to-date returns is concerned, the MSCI iShares is even (no
>gain/no loss) and Fidelity Japan is down over 4% for the year so far. The
>question is where we will see these to be at year end. My money is on an
>8-12% return for the full year.

Re: Japan -- Going where?

am 10.03.2006 02:59:13 von Arthur

Don't know their real reasons but another possible is to prop the Yen.

a
==

On Thu, 9 Mar 2006 19:45:09 -0500, "Good Analyst"
<> wrote:

>After several years of zero interest rates as an anti-deflationary
>mechanism, the Bank of Japan is now talking about increasing interest rates.
>To me it sounds like good news and bad news. The good news is it
>demonstrates the faith in the Japan economy's recovery. The bad news is that
>the move is bound to deplete some of the enthusiasm and thus returns and
>growth may, in turn, be depleted. Read the Washington Post article Japan
>ends Anti-Deflation stance.
>
>As far as year-to-date returns is concerned, the MSCI iShares is even (no
>gain/no loss) and Fidelity Japan is down over 4% for the year so far. The
>question is where we will see these to be at year end. My money is on an
>8-12% return for the full year.

Re: Japan -- Going where?

am 10.03.2006 03:03:34 von james godwin

"Good Analyst" <> wrote in message
news:v34Qf.59877$

> After several years of zero interest rates as an anti-deflationary
> mechanism, the Bank of Japan is now talking about increasing interest
> rates. To me it sounds like good news and bad news. The good news is
> it demonstrates the faith in the Japan economy's recovery. The bad
> news is that the move is bound to deplete some of the enthusiasm and
> thus returns and growth may, in turn, be depleted.

Isn't that why they do it?

Re: Japan -- Going where?

am 10.03.2006 03:03:34 von james godwin

"Good Analyst" <> wrote in message
news:v34Qf.59877$

> After several years of zero interest rates as an anti-deflationary
> mechanism, the Bank of Japan is now talking about increasing interest
> rates. To me it sounds like good news and bad news. The good news is
> it demonstrates the faith in the Japan economy's recovery. The bad
> news is that the move is bound to deplete some of the enthusiasm and
> thus returns and growth may, in turn, be depleted.

Isn't that why they do it?

Re: Japan -- Going where?

am 10.03.2006 03:03:34 von james godwin

"Good Analyst" <> wrote in message
news:v34Qf.59877$

> After several years of zero interest rates as an anti-deflationary
> mechanism, the Bank of Japan is now talking about increasing interest
> rates. To me it sounds like good news and bad news. The good news is
> it demonstrates the faith in the Japan economy's recovery. The bad
> news is that the move is bound to deplete some of the enthusiasm and
> thus returns and growth may, in turn, be depleted.

Isn't that why they do it?

Re: Japan -- Going where?

am 10.03.2006 03:21:00 von anothername

Tokyo stock market PE is around 80. Very high.

Re: Japan -- Going where?

am 10.03.2006 03:21:00 von anothername

Tokyo stock market PE is around 80. Very high.

Re: Japan -- Going where?

am 10.03.2006 03:21:00 von anothername

Tokyo stock market PE is around 80. Very high.

Re: Japan -- Going where?

am 10.03.2006 07:28:29 von Arthur

Wow. Have a URL or site for that?

a
==

On 9 Mar 2006 18:21:00 -0800, "Doug" <>
wrote:

>Tokyo stock market PE is around 80. Very high.

Re: Japan -- Going where?

am 10.03.2006 07:28:29 von Arthur

Wow. Have a URL or site for that?

a
==

On 9 Mar 2006 18:21:00 -0800, "Doug" <>
wrote:

>Tokyo stock market PE is around 80. Very high.

Re: Japan -- Going where?

am 10.03.2006 07:28:29 von Arthur

Wow. Have a URL or site for that?

a
==

On 9 Mar 2006 18:21:00 -0800, "Doug" <>
wrote:

>Tokyo stock market PE is around 80. Very high.

Re: Japan -- Going where?

am 10.03.2006 13:37:17 von Jerry

I pretty much agree with your analysis. However, I'm expecting a much
bigger gain from EWJ. It's been sluggish , but now appears to be starting
an upturn. It's 13 week is +8.37% even though YTD is very poor.

--
Jerry



"Good Analyst" <> wrote in message
news:v34Qf.59877$
> After several years of zero interest rates as an anti-deflationary
> mechanism, the Bank of Japan is now talking about increasing interest
> rates. To me it sounds like good news and bad news. The good news is it
> demonstrates the faith in the Japan economy's recovery. The bad news is
> that the move is bound to deplete some of the enthusiasm and thus returns
> and growth may, in turn, be depleted. Read the Washington Post article
> Japan ends Anti-Deflation stance.
>
> As far as year-to-date returns is concerned, the MSCI iShares is even (no
> gain/no loss) and Fidelity Japan is down over 4% for the year so far. The
> question is where we will see these to be at year end. My money is on an
> 8-12% return for the full year.
>
> www.goodanalyst.com
>
>
>
>

Re: Japan -- Going where?

am 10.03.2006 13:37:17 von Jerry

I pretty much agree with your analysis. However, I'm expecting a much
bigger gain from EWJ. It's been sluggish , but now appears to be starting
an upturn. It's 13 week is +8.37% even though YTD is very poor.

--
Jerry



"Good Analyst" <> wrote in message
news:v34Qf.59877$
> After several years of zero interest rates as an anti-deflationary
> mechanism, the Bank of Japan is now talking about increasing interest
> rates. To me it sounds like good news and bad news. The good news is it
> demonstrates the faith in the Japan economy's recovery. The bad news is
> that the move is bound to deplete some of the enthusiasm and thus returns
> and growth may, in turn, be depleted. Read the Washington Post article
> Japan ends Anti-Deflation stance.
>
> As far as year-to-date returns is concerned, the MSCI iShares is even (no
> gain/no loss) and Fidelity Japan is down over 4% for the year so far. The
> question is where we will see these to be at year end. My money is on an
> 8-12% return for the full year.
>
> www.goodanalyst.com
>
>
>
>

Re: Japan -- Going where?

am 10.03.2006 13:37:17 von Jerry

I pretty much agree with your analysis. However, I'm expecting a much
bigger gain from EWJ. It's been sluggish , but now appears to be starting
an upturn. It's 13 week is +8.37% even though YTD is very poor.

--
Jerry



"Good Analyst" <> wrote in message
news:v34Qf.59877$
> After several years of zero interest rates as an anti-deflationary
> mechanism, the Bank of Japan is now talking about increasing interest
> rates. To me it sounds like good news and bad news. The good news is it
> demonstrates the faith in the Japan economy's recovery. The bad news is
> that the move is bound to deplete some of the enthusiasm and thus returns
> and growth may, in turn, be depleted. Read the Washington Post article
> Japan ends Anti-Deflation stance.
>
> As far as year-to-date returns is concerned, the MSCI iShares is even (no
> gain/no loss) and Fidelity Japan is down over 4% for the year so far. The
> question is where we will see these to be at year end. My money is on an
> 8-12% return for the full year.
>
> www.goodanalyst.com
>
>
>
>

Re: Japan -- Going where?

am 10.03.2006 13:38:48 von Jerry

I believe that historically Japan's stocks have always traded with a high
P/E.

--
Jerry



"Doug" <> wrote in message
news:
> Tokyo stock market PE is around 80. Very high.
>

Re: Japan -- Going where?

am 10.03.2006 13:38:48 von Jerry

I believe that historically Japan's stocks have always traded with a high
P/E.

--
Jerry



"Doug" <> wrote in message
news:
> Tokyo stock market PE is around 80. Very high.
>

Re: Japan -- Going where?

am 10.03.2006 13:38:48 von Jerry

I believe that historically Japan's stocks have always traded with a high
P/E.

--
Jerry



"Doug" <> wrote in message
news:
> Tokyo stock market PE is around 80. Very high.
>

Re: Japan -- Going where?

am 10.03.2006 16:37:56 von Sanjay

In misc.invest.mutual-funds Jerry <NoSpam@???.??.com> wrote:
> I believe that historically Japan's stocks have always traded with a high
> P/E.

Define your range for "historically". "historically" US stocks have always
traded at a high if you just go back to the 90's.

When the BoJ starts hiking the Nikkei will come down more. When the BoJ
gets around to cutting, the Nikkei will rise again.

Just like in the US.

It's almost as if though...a pattern is emerging.

Re: Japan -- Going where?

am 10.03.2006 16:37:56 von Sanjay

In misc.invest.mutual-funds Jerry <NoSpam@???.??.com> wrote:
> I believe that historically Japan's stocks have always traded with a high
> P/E.

Define your range for "historically". "historically" US stocks have always
traded at a high if you just go back to the 90's.

When the BoJ starts hiking the Nikkei will come down more. When the BoJ
gets around to cutting, the Nikkei will rise again.

Just like in the US.

It's almost as if though...a pattern is emerging.

Re: Japan -- Going where?

am 10.03.2006 16:37:56 von Sanjay

In misc.invest.mutual-funds Jerry <NoSpam@???.??.com> wrote:
> I believe that historically Japan's stocks have always traded with a high
> P/E.

Define your range for "historically". "historically" US stocks have always
traded at a high if you just go back to the 90's.

When the BoJ starts hiking the Nikkei will come down more. When the BoJ
gets around to cutting, the Nikkei will rise again.

Just like in the US.

It's almost as if though...a pattern is emerging.

Re: Japan -- Going where?

am 10.03.2006 22:00:19 von Arthur

It is called Macro Economics
Lots of theory and trial and error engineering

arthur
==

On Fri, 10 Mar 2006 15:37:56 GMT, Sanjay <> wrote:
>
>When the BoJ starts hiking the Nikkei will come down more. When the BoJ
>gets around to cutting, the Nikkei will rise again.
>
>Just like in the US.
>
>It's almost as if though...a pattern is emerging.

Re: Japan -- Going where?

am 10.03.2006 22:00:19 von Arthur

It is called Macro Economics
Lots of theory and trial and error engineering

arthur
==

On Fri, 10 Mar 2006 15:37:56 GMT, Sanjay <> wrote:
>
>When the BoJ starts hiking the Nikkei will come down more. When the BoJ
>gets around to cutting, the Nikkei will rise again.
>
>Just like in the US.
>
>It's almost as if though...a pattern is emerging.

Re: Japan -- Going where?

am 10.03.2006 22:00:19 von Arthur

It is called Macro Economics
Lots of theory and trial and error engineering

arthur
==

On Fri, 10 Mar 2006 15:37:56 GMT, Sanjay <> wrote:
>
>When the BoJ starts hiking the Nikkei will come down more. When the BoJ
>gets around to cutting, the Nikkei will rise again.
>
>Just like in the US.
>
>It's almost as if though...a pattern is emerging.

Re: Japan -- Going where?

am 12.03.2006 02:33:32 von vjp2.at

Japan has a lot of latent intergenerational conflict. They are
such control freaks. What they just went through compares to our own
Great Depression. (Smoot Hawley caused our Great Depression). If they
were more open with immigration (I hope our xenophobes take note) and
were willing to write off bad debts, they would have solved their
problems a lot quicker. Thanks to the one-child policy, China will
end up going through something as bad as Japan just went through a
decade or two from now. I know a lot of Japanese my age who wanted to
make Japan more like the USA all the while leftist USA academics
wanted us to emulate Japan.

- = -
Vasos-Peter John Panagiotopoulos II, Columbia'81+, Bio$trategist
BachMozart ReaganQuayle EvrytanoKastorian

---{Nothing herein constitutes advice. Everything fully disclaimed.}---
[Urb sprawl confounds terror] [Remorse begets zeal] [Windows is for Bimbos]
[Homeland Security means private firearms not lazy obstructive guards]

Re: Japan -- Going where?

am 12.03.2006 02:33:32 von vjp2.at

Japan has a lot of latent intergenerational conflict. They are
such control freaks. What they just went through compares to our own
Great Depression. (Smoot Hawley caused our Great Depression). If they
were more open with immigration (I hope our xenophobes take note) and
were willing to write off bad debts, they would have solved their
problems a lot quicker. Thanks to the one-child policy, China will
end up going through something as bad as Japan just went through a
decade or two from now. I know a lot of Japanese my age who wanted to
make Japan more like the USA all the while leftist USA academics
wanted us to emulate Japan.

- = -
Vasos-Peter John Panagiotopoulos II, Columbia'81+, Bio$trategist
BachMozart ReaganQuayle EvrytanoKastorian

---{Nothing herein constitutes advice. Everything fully disclaimed.}---
[Urb sprawl confounds terror] [Remorse begets zeal] [Windows is for Bimbos]
[Homeland Security means private firearms not lazy obstructive guards]

Re: Japan -- Going where?

am 12.03.2006 02:33:32 von vjp2.at

Japan has a lot of latent intergenerational conflict. They are
such control freaks. What they just went through compares to our own
Great Depression. (Smoot Hawley caused our Great Depression). If they
were more open with immigration (I hope our xenophobes take note) and
were willing to write off bad debts, they would have solved their
problems a lot quicker. Thanks to the one-child policy, China will
end up going through something as bad as Japan just went through a
decade or two from now. I know a lot of Japanese my age who wanted to
make Japan more like the USA all the while leftist USA academics
wanted us to emulate Japan.

- = -
Vasos-Peter John Panagiotopoulos II, Columbia'81+, Bio$trategist
BachMozart ReaganQuayle EvrytanoKastorian

---{Nothing herein constitutes advice. Everything fully disclaimed.}---
[Urb sprawl confounds terror] [Remorse begets zeal] [Windows is for Bimbos]
[Homeland Security means private firearms not lazy obstructive guards]