King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large social

Straight from the horse's mouth (King is not one of Brown's stooges of
course) .........

King sounds warning over economy
(Filed: 10/05/2006)

..xml&sSheet=3D/money/2006/05/10/ixcitytop.html

House prices are overvalued and consumer bankruptcies risk becoming a
large social problem, the Bank of England Governor Mervyn King has
warned.

Speaking at the launch of the Bank's May Inflation Report Mr King said:
"The level of house prices still seems remarkably high relative to
those measures that put it into context."

Recent gains in house prices had been more than the Monetary Policy
Committee, which sets interest rates, had expected but Mr King warned
this may not carry on as house prices are still high compared with
average earnings.

Mr King also warned a potentially large social problem of consumer
bankruptcies may be materialising.

He said: "The proportion of unsecured debtors reporting their debt as a
serious problem has gone up, the number of calls to the National Debt
Helpline has risen quite sharply, so I think the signs are that a
potentially large social problem, with many households getting into
difficulty with their debts, is materialising."

Last week, official figures showed that the number of people declaring
themselves insolvent was at its highest since records began - at 23,351
in the three months to March.

However, Mr King added: "The rate of increase in unsecured borrowing
has fallen very markedly in the last year. The position on secured debt
looks relatively benign."

Credit-card debt fell by =A3579m during March, showing that cardholders
are cutting back on their spending, according to figures from the
British Bankers' Association last week.

The country's current account deficit at around 4pc of GDP would need
to be addressed, according to Mr King, but he was unsure over what
time-frame this would need to be tackled.

He said: "We keep running current account deficits which means that
we're spending as a country more than we're producing. And there is a
limit in the long run to that."


Bank hints at interest rate rise

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Crowley" <> wrote in message
news:
Straight from the horse's mouth (King is not one of Brown's stooges of
course) .........

King sounds warning over economy
(Filed: 10/05/2006)


House prices are overvalued

I do wonder if these people live in the real world.
House prices are over valued, well maybe to you but to someone else, no.

The point of the housing market is that it doesn't work on what something is
really worth, talking about what a house is worth is missing the point and
not understanding it.

A house is worth what someone will pay for it.

If you really want to find what the worth of an house is itemise the
materials and costs for building it, that tells you how much it is, but you
won't find any house of that price, so in this regard all houses for have
been overpriced and always have been.

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Chris.S" <> wrote in message
news:4462142c$0$9236$
>
> "Crowley" <> wrote in message
> news:
> Straight from the horse's mouth (King is not one of Brown's stooges of
> course) .........
>
> King sounds warning over economy
> (Filed: 10/05/2006)
>

>
> House prices are overvalued
>
> I do wonder if these people live in the real world.
> House prices are over valued, well maybe to you but to someone else, no.
>
> The point of the housing market is that it doesn't work on what something
is
> really worth, talking about what a house is worth is missing the point and
> not understanding it.
>
> A house is worth what someone will pay for it.
>
> If you really want to find what the worth of an house is itemise the
> materials and costs for building it, that tells you how much it is, but
you
> won't find any house of that price, so in this regard all houses for have
> been overpriced and always have been.
>
>

Only until and unless the population drops dramatically (?bird flu), and the
supply/demand ratio changes.

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

Chris.S wrote:
> A house is worth what someone will pay for it.

No. A house is worth _what a bank will lend someone_ to pay for it.

If King was worried about debts, he shouldn't have dropped UK interest
rates to insanely low levels. It's far too late now, the damage is
done... debts are vast, houses are probably the most overvalued on the
planet, inflation is only being kept down by outsourcing jobs and
shipping in vast numbers of cheap immigrants to work on minimum wage or
less, and global interest rates are rising.

He and Brown have utterly devastated the British economy: it will take
a generation to recover.

Mark

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

Chris.S wrote:
> "Crowley" <> wrote in message
> news:
> Straight from the horse's mouth (King is not one of Brown's stooges of
> course) .........
>
> King sounds warning over economy
> (Filed: 10/05/2006)
>
>
> House prices are overvalued
>
> I do wonder if these people live in the real world.
> House prices are over valued, well maybe to you but to someone else, no.

While I'm all for people doing their own research and making their own
minds up I think I'd place more credence on the views of the governor
of the Bank of England than the ramblings of an internet stalker like
you Slimey.

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Crowley" <> wrote in message
news:
>
> Chris.S wrote:
>> "Crowley" <> wrote in message
>> news:
>> Straight from the horse's mouth (King is not one of Brown's stooges of
>> course) .........
>>
>> King sounds warning over economy
>> (Filed: 10/05/2006)
>>
>>
>> House prices are overvalued
>>
>> I do wonder if these people live in the real world.
>> House prices are over valued, well maybe to you but to someone else, no.
>
> While I'm all for people doing their own research and making their own
> minds up I think I'd place more credence on the views of the governor
> of the Bank of England than the ramblings of an internet stalker like
> you Slimey.

LOL ! ;))

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

Miss L. Toe wrote:
>
> Only until and unless the population drops dramatically (?bird flu), and the
> supply/demand ratio changes.

There's more to it than simple supply and demand as evidenced by the
historically large inventory of houses on estate agent's books and the
shortage of buyers for them particularly at these prices.

This house price bubble has been fed by the massive availability in
recent years of cheap easy credit much of it borrowed by western banks
from eastern banks at low rates of interest and then lent to borrowers
over here at higher rates of interest. (known as the carry trade) This
global liquidity is beginning to dry up. Credit tightening is on the
way. Would be buyers won't be able to raise the credit to pay these
inflated prices and the bubble will burst.

Read this on the ending of the Japanese carry trade and it's likely
consequences ...........

............what about all the other massively inflated asset bubbles
around the world? David Bloom, HSBC currency strategist tells The
Telegraph: "The carry trade has pervaded every single instrument
imaginable, credit spreads, bonds spreads: everything is poisoned.
"It's going to come to an end later this year and it's going to be
ugly."

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

<> wrote in message
news:
> Chris.S wrote:
> > A house is worth what someone will pay for it.
>
> No. A house is worth _what a bank will lend someone_ to pay for it.

Wrong.
A house is worth what you are willing to pay for it, you then may or may not
need to go to a bank where they may or may not agree to give you the money.
Whether a bank gives you money says nothing regarding the worth of the house
but more about your credit risk.

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Crowley" <> wrote in message
news:
>
> Chris.S wrote:
> > "Crowley" <> wrote in message
> > news:
> > Straight from the horse's mouth (King is not one of Brown's stooges of
> > course) .........
> >
> > King sounds warning over economy
> > (Filed: 10/05/2006)
> >

> >
> > House prices are overvalued
> >
> > I do wonder if these people live in the real world.
> > House prices are over valued, well maybe to you but to someone else, no.
>
> While I'm all for people doing their own research and making their own
> minds up I think I'd place more credence on the views of the governor
> of the Bank of England than the ramblings of an internet stalker like
> you Slimey.

These are the same people who you swallow every line they spill out, for
which you have been predicting a house price crash for goodness knows how
long.
You and they have been consistently wrong and will continue to be as they
miss the point.
Whether there is a crash or not has nothing to do what a house is worth.

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

Chris.S wrote:
..

> "Crowley" <> wrote in message
> news:
> >
> > Chris.S wrote:
> > > "Crowley" <> wrote in message
> > > news:
> > > Straight from the horse's mouth (King is not one of Brown's stooges of
> > > course) .........
> > >
> > > King sounds warning over economy
> > > (Filed: 10/05/2006)
> > >
>
> > >
> > > House prices are overvalued
> > >
> > > I do wonder if these people live in the real world.
> > > House prices are over valued, well maybe to you but to someone else, no.
> >
> > While I'm all for people doing their own research and making their own
> > minds up I think I'd place more credence on the views of the governor
> > of the Bank of England than the ramblings of an internet stalker like
> > you Slimey.
>
> These are the same people who you swallow every line they spill out, for
> which you have been predicting a house price crash for goodness knows how
> long.
> You and they have been consistently wrong and will continue to be as they
> miss the point.
> Whether there is a crash or not has nothing to do what a house is worth.

Stop trying to pretend you know anything about it lamebrain.

You're just a fuckwit, a stallker, and a troll. Live with it and stop
trying to get above yourself.

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Chris.S" <> wrote in message
news:446219dc$0$9230$
>
> <> wrote in message
> news:
>> Chris.S wrote:
>> > A house is worth what someone will pay for it.
>>
>> No. A house is worth _what a bank will lend someone_ to pay for it.
>
> Wrong.
> A house is worth what you are willing to pay for it, you then may or may
> not
> need to go to a bank where they may or may not agree to give you the
> money.
> Whether a bank gives you money says nothing regarding the worth of the
> house
> but more about your credit risk.

Slimey, the point he's making is that fewer and fewer people are *earning*
enough to be considered by the banks for a mortgage on a half-decent
property.

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Chris.S" <> wrote in message
news:4462142c$0$9236$
> House prices are overvalued
>
> I do wonder if these people live in the real world.
> House prices are over valued, well maybe to you but to someone else, no.
>
> The point of the housing market is that it doesn't work on what something is
> really worth, talking about what a house is worth is missing the point and
> not understanding it.
>
> A house is worth what someone will pay for it.

Well obviously, but you've missed the point. On that basis dot.com shares weren't
overvalued in 2000. The point is that he reckons "what people are willing to pay" is
too high.

--
Andy

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Crowley" <> wrote in message
news:
>
> Chris.S wrote:
> .
>
> > "Crowley" <> wrote in message
> > news:
> > >
> > > Chris.S wrote:
> > > > "Crowley" <> wrote in message
> > > > news:
> > > > Straight from the horse's mouth (King is not one of Brown's stooges
of
> > > > course) .........
> > > >
> > > > King sounds warning over economy
> > > > (Filed: 10/05/2006)
> > > >
> >

> > > >
> > > > House prices are overvalued
> > > >
> > > > I do wonder if these people live in the real world.
> > > > House prices are over valued, well maybe to you but to someone else,
no.
> > >
> > > While I'm all for people doing their own research and making their own
> > > minds up I think I'd place more credence on the views of the governor
> > > of the Bank of England than the ramblings of an internet stalker like
> > > you Slimey.
> >
> > These are the same people who you swallow every line they spill out, for
> > which you have been predicting a house price crash for goodness knows
how
> > long.
> > You and they have been consistently wrong and will continue to be as
they
> > miss the point.
> > Whether there is a crash or not has nothing to do what a house is worth.
>
> Stop trying to pretend you know anything about it lamebrain.

You're the one who has for, how long is it, been crying that there would be
a crash.
It is you who swallows every report without the ability to think it through,
not I.
You already got zero credibility in regard to predicting a crash.

> You're just a fuckwit, a stallker, and a troll. Live with it and stop
> trying to get above yourself.

Who is it that is incapable of debate, not me, it is you who is abusive.

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

Chris.S wrote:
> Who is it that is incapable of debate, not me, it is you who is abusive.

Don't try stalking me Slimey you attention seeking little prick. I
don't play games with knobheads like you.

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Chris X" <> wrote in message
news:
>
> "Chris.S" <> wrote in message
> news:446219dc$0$9230$
> >
> > <> wrote in message
> > news:
> >> Chris.S wrote:
> >> > A house is worth what someone will pay for it.
> >>
> >> No. A house is worth _what a bank will lend someone_ to pay for it.
> >
> > Wrong.
> > A house is worth what you are willing to pay for it, you then may or may
> > not
> > need to go to a bank where they may or may not agree to give you the
> > money.
> > Whether a bank gives you money says nothing regarding the worth of the
> > house
> > but more about your credit risk.
>
> Slimey, the point he's making is that fewer and fewer people are *earning*
> enough to be considered by the banks for a mortgage on a half-decent
> property.

Exley, in that case the market will adjust itself, it's called market forces
something alien to the BNP I know.

Of course adjustment doesn't mean crash as other variables come to mind,
such as supply and demand.
I suggest the reason why prices are high is that interest rates are low and
demand out strips supply.
If banks stop lending high amount then there will be no demand at high
prices, it doesn't mean that banks won't lend at all, just not at amount
that buyers want to borrow, hence no crash.

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Andy Pandy" <> wrote in message
news:
>
> "Chris.S" <> wrote in message
> news:4462142c$0$9236$
> > House prices are overvalued
> >
> > I do wonder if these people live in the real world.
> > House prices are over valued, well maybe to you but to someone else, no.
> >
> > The point of the housing market is that it doesn't work on what
something is
> > really worth, talking about what a house is worth is missing the point
and
> > not understanding it.
> >
> > A house is worth what someone will pay for it.
>
> Well obviously, but you've missed the point. On that basis dot.com shares
weren't
> overvalued in 2000. The point is that he reckons "what people are willing
to pay" is
> too high.

I would never make the mistake of comparing a asset such as an house with
the dot com shares.
They were pretty meaningless as there was no real assets there.
with property there is always an asset as people always need homes to live
in don't they.

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Andy Pandy" <> wrote in message
news:
>
> "Chris.S" <> wrote in message
> news:4462142c$0$9236$
> > House prices are overvalued
> >
> > I do wonder if these people live in the real world.
> > House prices are over valued, well maybe to you but to someone else, no.
> >
> > The point of the housing market is that it doesn't work on what
something is
> > really worth, talking about what a house is worth is missing the point
and
> > not understanding it.
> >
> > A house is worth what someone will pay for it.
>
> Well obviously, but you've missed the point. On that basis dot.com shares
weren't
> overvalued in 2000. The point is that he reckons "what people are willing
to pay" is
> too high.

But most have little choice because of the market.
It is still (in the long term) cheaper than renting.

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Crowley" <> wrote in message
news:
>
> Chris.S wrote:
> > Who is it that is incapable of debate, not me, it is you who is abusive.
>
> Don't try stalking me Slimey you attention seeking little prick. I
> don't play games with knobheads like you.

Translation, Crowley is out of his depth
PS, when is the latest house price crash then?
snigger

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Chris.S" <> wrote in message
news:44621ed9$0$9267$
>
> "Chris X" <> wrote in message
> news:
>>
>> "Chris.S" <> wrote in message
>> news:446219dc$0$9230$
>> >
>> > <> wrote in message
>> > news:
>> >> Chris.S wrote:
>> >> > A house is worth what someone will pay for it.
>> >>
>> >> No. A house is worth _what a bank will lend someone_ to pay for it.
>> >
>> > Wrong.
>> > A house is worth what you are willing to pay for it, you then may or
>> > may
>> > not
>> > need to go to a bank where they may or may not agree to give you the
>> > money.
>> > Whether a bank gives you money says nothing regarding the worth of the
>> > house
>> > but more about your credit risk.
>>
>> Slimey, the point he's making is that fewer and fewer people are
>> *earning*
>> enough to be considered by the banks for a mortgage on a half-decent
>> property.
>
> Exley,

Who ? I might remind you to watch what you say here, Slimey.

> in that case the market will adjust itself, it's called market forces
> something alien to the BNP I know.

LOL ! Slimey the arch-capitalist !

> Of course adjustment doesn't mean crash as other variables come to mind,
> such as supply and demand.
> I suggest the reason why prices are high is that interest rates are low
> and
> demand out strips supply.
> If banks stop lending high amount then there will be no demand at high
> prices, it doesn't mean that banks won't lend at all, just not at amount
> that buyers want to borrow, hence no crash.

LOL ! Slimey the "economist" ... almost too painful for words, isn't it ?

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Crowley" <> wrote in message
news:
>
> Miss L. Toe wrote:
> >
> > Only until and unless the population drops dramatically (?bird flu), and
the
> > supply/demand ratio changes.
>
> There's more to it than simple supply and demand as evidenced by the
> historically large inventory of houses on estate agent's books and the
> shortage of buyers for them particularly at these prices.
>

I dont see eveidence of this.

> This house price bubble has been fed by the massive availability in
> recent years of cheap easy credit much of it borrowed by western banks
> from eastern banks at low rates of interest and then lent to borrowers
> over here at higher rates of interest. (known as the carry trade) This
> global liquidity is beginning to dry up. Credit tightening is on the
> way. Would be buyers won't be able to raise the credit to pay these
> inflated prices and the bubble will burst.
>

So what eveidence do you have that Japanese 0% loans are being used to fund
house purchases in the UK ?

> Read this on the ending of the Japanese carry trade and it's likely
> consequences ...........
>

> ...........what about all the other massively inflated asset bubbles
> around the world? David Bloom, HSBC currency strategist tells The
> Telegraph: "The carry trade has pervaded every single instrument
> imaginable, credit spreads, bonds spreads: everything is poisoned.
> "It's going to come to an end later this year and it's going to be
> ugly."
>

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Chris X" <> wrote in message
news:
>
> "Chris.S" <> wrote in message
> news:44621ed9$0$9267$
> >
> > "Chris X" <> wrote in message
> > news:
> >>
> >> "Chris.S" <> wrote in message
> >> news:446219dc$0$9230$
> >> >
> >> > <> wrote in message
> >> > news:
> >> >> Chris.S wrote:
> >> >> > A house is worth what someone will pay for it.
> >> >>
> >> >> No. A house is worth _what a bank will lend someone_ to pay for it.
> >> >
> >> > Wrong.
> >> > A house is worth what you are willing to pay for it, you then may or
> >> > may
> >> > not
> >> > need to go to a bank where they may or may not agree to give you the
> >> > money.
> >> > Whether a bank gives you money says nothing regarding the worth of
the
> >> > house
> >> > but more about your credit risk.
> >>
> >> Slimey, the point he's making is that fewer and fewer people are
> >> *earning*
> >> enough to be considered by the banks for a mortgage on a half-decent
> >> property.
> >
> > Exley,
>
> Who ? I might remind you to watch what you say here, Slimey.

Why, are there people who are against free speech, Exley, uh?

> > in that case the market will adjust itself, it's called market forces
> > something alien to the BNP I know.
>
> LOL ! Slimey the arch-capitalist !

It's called the real world X.

> > Of course adjustment doesn't mean crash as other variables come to mind,
> > such as supply and demand.
> > I suggest the reason why prices are high is that interest rates are low
> > and
> > demand out strips supply.
> > If banks stop lending high amount then there will be no demand at high
> > prices, it doesn't mean that banks won't lend at all, just not at amount
> > that buyers want to borrow, hence no crash.
>
> LOL ! Slimey the "economist" ... almost too painful for words, isn't it
?

Try not thinking if it hurts.
rotfl

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Chris.S" <> wrote in message
news:44621f07$0$9250$
>
> "> > > A house is worth what someone will pay for it.
> >
> > Well obviously, but you've missed the point. On that basis dot.com shares
> weren't
> > overvalued in 2000. The point is that he reckons "what people are willing
> to pay" is
> > too high.
>
> I would never make the mistake of comparing a asset such as an house with
> the dot com shares.
> They were pretty meaningless as there was no real assets there.
> with property there is always an asset as people always need homes to live
> in don't they.

So what? The principle is the same. Just because an asset is "real" or "needed"
doesn't mean it can't be overvalued.

--
Andy

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

Chris X wrote:
>
> LOL ! Slimey the "economist" ... almost too painful for words, isn't it ?

Pathetic isn't it. Poor Slimey. He's trying his best but the retarded
fuckwit really hasn't got a clue.

I can't be arsed wasting any more time on him. He's a typical
attention-seeking moron with an emotional age of three. Whatever you
say to him he will take the opposite line to try to "test you out". I
believe the child psychiatrists call it "acting-out".

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Miss L. Toe" <> wrote in message
news:44621f5b$0$64670$
> > > A house is worth what someone will pay for it.
> >
> > Well obviously, but you've missed the point. On that basis dot.com shares
> weren't
> > overvalued in 2000. The point is that he reckons "what people are willing
> to pay" is
> > too high.
>
> But most have little choice because of the market.
> It is still (in the long term) cheaper than renting.

The problem with the market is that people now have more "property per person" than
they used to. That is a choice, usually made by people with more money than sense
who reckon having a house with 2 spare bedrooms is "a good investment".

--
Andy

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Chris.S" <> wrote in message
news:44622273$0$9272$
>
> "Chris X" <> wrote in message
> news:
>>
>> "Chris.S" <> wrote in message
>> news:44621ed9$0$9267$
>> >
>> > "Chris X" <> wrote in message
>> > news:
>> >>
>> >> "Chris.S" <> wrote in message
>> >> news:446219dc$0$9230$
>> >> >
>> >> > <> wrote in message
>> >> > news:
>> >> >> Chris.S wrote:
>> >> >> > A house is worth what someone will pay for it.
>> >> >>
>> >> >> No. A house is worth _what a bank will lend someone_ to pay for it.
>> >> >
>> >> > Wrong.
>> >> > A house is worth what you are willing to pay for it, you then may or
>> >> > may
>> >> > not
>> >> > need to go to a bank where they may or may not agree to give you the
>> >> > money.
>> >> > Whether a bank gives you money says nothing regarding the worth of
> the
>> >> > house
>> >> > but more about your credit risk.
>> >>
>> >> Slimey, the point he's making is that fewer and fewer people are
>> >> *earning*
>> >> enough to be considered by the banks for a mortgage on a half-decent
>> >> property.
>> >
>> > Exley,
>>
>> Who ? I might remind you to watch what you say here, Slimey.
>
> Why, are there people who are against free speech, Exley, uh?

Exley ? Who's that then ? Be more specific ... if you dare ;)

>> > in that case the market will adjust itself, it's called market forces
>> > something alien to the BNP I know.
>>
>> LOL ! Slimey the arch-capitalist !
>
> It's called the real world X.

ROTFLMAO ! Is that the real world Slimey where you can't ever hope to get a
mortgage - even for a £30,000 terraced dump in Wigan - due to your
"condition" ? ;)

>> > Of course adjustment doesn't mean crash as other variables come to
>> > mind,
>> > such as supply and demand.
>> > I suggest the reason why prices are high is that interest rates are low
>> > and demand out strips supply.
>> > If banks stop lending high amount then there will be no demand at high
>> > prices, it doesn't mean that banks won't lend at all, just not at
>> > amount
>> > that buyers want to borrow, hence no crash.
>>
>> LOL ! Slimey the "economist" ... almost too painful for words, isn't it
>> ?
>
> Try not thinking if it hurts.

Slimey, the concept of you with even one foot in the real world is just too
horrific to comprehend ... you'd spoil it for the rest of us !

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

Miss L. Toe wrote:
> But most have little choice because of the market.
> It is still (in the long term) cheaper than renting.

Only if you assume there's going to be high wage inflation, or Blair
will actually succeed in bringing tens of millions of immigrants to the
UK in the next few years.

If interest rates return to normal levels, the average house price will
drop about 100,000 pounds. That would pay for quite a few years of
renting with low wage inflation (and therefore low rent inflation).

Anyone buying a house at today's prices is betting on high wage
inflation when British jobs are being outsourced en masse and other
jobs are being replaced by cheap immigrants. To me, that's... brave.

Anyway, doesn't matter to me. There's no way I'm enslaving myself to
the bank for the rest of my life just to buy a bloody two-bed
ex-council terrace in a street full of chavs.

Mark

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Andy Pandy" <> wrote in message
news:
>
> "Chris.S" <> wrote in message
> news:44621f07$0$9250$
> >
> > "> > > A house is worth what someone will pay for it.
> > >
> > > Well obviously, but you've missed the point. On that basis dot.com
shares
> > weren't
> > > overvalued in 2000. The point is that he reckons "what people are
willing
> > to pay" is
> > > too high.
> >
> > I would never make the mistake of comparing a asset such as an house
with
> > the dot com shares.
> > They were pretty meaningless as there was no real assets there.
> > with property there is always an asset as people always need homes to
live
> > in don't they.
>
> So what? The principle is the same. Just because an asset is "real" or
"needed"
> doesn't mean it can't be overvalued.

It isn't for the reasons I have explained.

Shares in dot coms where valued at a certain level, but when things got hard
there was nothing behind the businesses, no equity, no capital, nothing

A house is an asset, we can debate what it is worth but it is an asset
particularly as people need them to live in.

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Crowley" <> wrote in message
news:
>
> Chris X wrote:
>>
>> LOL ! Slimey the "economist" ... almost too painful for words, isn't it
>> ?
>
> Pathetic isn't it. Poor Slimey. He's trying his best but the retarded
> fuckwit really hasn't got a clue.
>
> I can't be arsed wasting any more time on him. He's a typical
> attention-seeking moron with an emotional age of three. Whatever you
> say to him he will take the opposite line to try to "test you out". I
> believe the child psychiatrists call it "acting-out".

Quite.

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Andy Pandy" <> wrote in message
news:
>
> "Miss L. Toe" <> wrote in message
> news:44621f5b$0$64670$
> > > > A house is worth what someone will pay for it.
> > >
> > > Well obviously, but you've missed the point. On that basis dot.com
shares
> > weren't
> > > overvalued in 2000. The point is that he reckons "what people are
willing
> > to pay" is
> > > too high.
> >
> > But most have little choice because of the market.
> > It is still (in the long term) cheaper than renting.
>
> The problem with the market is that people now have more "property per
person" than
> they used to. That is a choice, usually made by people with more money
than sense
> who reckon having a house with 2 spare bedrooms is "a good investment".
>

It probably is a good investment if you plan on starting a family, or
working from home :-)

Are you saying that the UK currently has a housing surplus ?

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Chris X" <> wrote in message
news:
>
> "Chris.S" <> wrote in message
> news:44622273$0$9272$
> >
> > "Chris X" <> wrote in message
> > news:
> >>
> >> "Chris.S" <> wrote in message
> >> news:44621ed9$0$9267$
> >> >
> >> > "Chris X" <> wrote in message
> >> > news:
> >> >>
> >> >> "Chris.S" <> wrote in message
> >> >> news:446219dc$0$9230$
> >> >> >
> >> >> > <> wrote in message
> >> >> > news:
> >> >> >> Chris.S wrote:
> >> >> >> > A house is worth what someone will pay for it.
> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> No. A house is worth _what a bank will lend someone_ to pay for
it.
> >> >> >
> >> >> > Wrong.
> >> >> > A house is worth what you are willing to pay for it, you then may
or
> >> >> > may
> >> >> > not
> >> >> > need to go to a bank where they may or may not agree to give you
the
> >> >> > money.
> >> >> > Whether a bank gives you money says nothing regarding the worth of
> > the
> >> >> > house
> >> >> > but more about your credit risk.
> >> >>
> >> >> Slimey, the point he's making is that fewer and fewer people are
> >> >> *earning*
> >> >> enough to be considered by the banks for a mortgage on a half-decent
> >> >> property.
> >> >
> >> > Exley,
> >>
> >> Who ? I might remind you to watch what you say here, Slimey.
> >
> > Why, are there people who are against free speech, Exley, uh?
>
> Exley ? Who's that then ? Be more specific ... if you dare ;)

Having a Mike Baldwin moment are we
snigger!

> >> > in that case the market will adjust itself, it's called market forces
> >> > something alien to the BNP I know.
> >>
> >> LOL ! Slimey the arch-capitalist !
> >
> > It's called the real world X.
>
> ROTFLMAO ! Is that the real world Slimey where you can't ever hope to get
a
> mortgage - even for a £30,000 terraced dump in Wigan - due to your
> "condition" ? ;)

£30,000 in Wigan, when you find one tell me.
I see you've been stalking again
rotfl

> >> > Of course adjustment doesn't mean crash as other variables come to
> >> > mind,
> >> > such as supply and demand.
> >> > I suggest the reason why prices are high is that interest rates are
low
> >> > and demand out strips supply.
> >> > If banks stop lending high amount then there will be no demand at
high
> >> > prices, it doesn't mean that banks won't lend at all, just not at
> >> > amount
> >> > that buyers want to borrow, hence no crash.
> >>
> >> LOL ! Slimey the "economist" ... almost too painful for words, isn't
it
> >> ?
> >
> > Try not thinking if it hurts.
>
> Slimey, the concept of you with even one foot in the real world is just
too
> horrific to comprehend ... you'd spoil it for the rest of us !

Poor X, can't debate, won't debate, back under the bridge.

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

<> wrote in message
news:
> Miss L. Toe wrote:
> > But most have little choice because of the market.
> > It is still (in the long term) cheaper than renting.
>
> Only if you assume there's going to be high wage inflation, or Blair
> will actually succeed in bringing tens of millions of immigrants to the
> UK in the next few years.
>

I'm not sure what immigration has to do with it, increased longevity is part
of the problem.

> If interest rates return to normal levels, the average house price will
> drop about 100,000 pounds. That would pay for quite a few years of
> renting with low wage inflation (and therefore low rent inflation).
>

What do you call normal levels ???

If interets rates drop people will be able to afford even bigger mortgages
and house prices will go up.

If interest rates rise significantly (most likely to try to protect a
falling pound) then that will cause problems.

> Anyone buying a house at today's prices is betting on high wage
> inflation when British jobs are being outsourced en masse and other
> jobs are being replaced by cheap immigrants. To me, that's... brave.
>

No, anyone buying a house at todays prices is betting prices wont go down
any time soon.

> Anyway, doesn't matter to me. There's no way I'm enslaving myself to
> the bank for the rest of my life just to buy a bloody two-bed
> ex-council terrace in a street full of chavs.

Doesn't matter to me either as my mortgage is paid off :-)

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Chris.S" <> wrote in message
news:446224fd$0$9256$
> > > I would never make the mistake of comparing a asset such as an house
> with
> > > the dot com shares.
> > > They were pretty meaningless as there was no real assets there.
> > > with property there is always an asset as people always need homes to
> live
> > > in don't they.
> >
> > So what? The principle is the same. Just because an asset is "real" or
> "needed"
> > doesn't mean it can't be overvalued.
>
> It isn't for the reasons I have explained.
>
> Shares in dot coms where valued at a certain level, but when things got hard
> there was nothing behind the businesses, no equity, no capital, nothing
>
> A house is an asset, we can debate what it is worth but it is an asset
> particularly as people need them to live in.

The whole *point* is what it's worth, FFS. The point that houses are "an asset" or
"needed" is irrelvant, it's exactly the same asset at is was 10 years ago, if it was
worth £100,000 10 years ago but is now worth £300,000, then what does the extra
£200,000 respresent? The "asset" hasn't changed, the "need to live in it" hasn't
changed, but it's now worth £200,000 more. The £200,000 extra is no different to
£200,000 of dot.com shares.

--
Andy

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Andy Pandy" <> wrote in message
news:
>
> "Chris.S" <> wrote in message
> news:446224fd$0$9256$
> > > > I would never make the mistake of comparing a asset such as an house
> > with
> > > > the dot com shares.
> > > > They were pretty meaningless as there was no real assets there.
> > > > with property there is always an asset as people always need homes
to
> > live
> > > > in don't they.
> > >
> > > So what? The principle is the same. Just because an asset is "real" or
> > "needed"
> > > doesn't mean it can't be overvalued.
> >
> > It isn't for the reasons I have explained.
> >
> > Shares in dot coms where valued at a certain level, but when things got
hard
> > there was nothing behind the businesses, no equity, no capital, nothing
> >
> > A house is an asset, we can debate what it is worth but it is an asset
> > particularly as people need them to live in.
>
> The whole *point* is what it's worth, FFS. The point that houses are "an
asset" or
> "needed" is irrelvant, it's exactly the same asset at is was 10 years ago,
if it was
> worth £100,000 10 years ago but is now worth £300,000, then what does the
extra
> £200,000 respresent? The "asset" hasn't changed, the "need to live in it"
hasn't
> changed, but it's now worth £200,000 more. The £200,000 extra is no
different to
> £200,000 of dot.com shares.
>

I think a comparison to the price of Gold might be more valid.

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Miss L. Toe" <> wrote in message
news:446225fd$0$14810$
> > > But most have little choice because of the market.
> > > It is still (in the long term) cheaper than renting.
> >
> > The problem with the market is that people now have more "property per
> person" than
> > they used to. That is a choice, usually made by people with more money
> than sense
> > who reckon having a house with 2 spare bedrooms is "a good investment".
> >
>
> It probably is a good investment if you plan on starting a family, or
> working from home :-)

If you are going to use the space, then yes. But if you are just buying a big house
because some idiot down the pub told you to buy "as expensive a house as you can
afford", even if you don't need the space, then no.

> Are you saying that the UK currently has a housing surplus ?

Er, no, there's a shortage because of people doing as I have said, ie buying bigger
properties than the need, or second properties which they leave unoccupied most of
the time.

--
Andy

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Chris.S" <> wrote in message
news:446225e8$0$9231$
>
> "Chris X" <> wrote in message
> news:
>>
>> "Chris.S" <> wrote in message
>> news:44622273$0$9272$
>> >
>> > "Chris X" <> wrote in message
>> > news:
>> >>
>> >> "Chris.S" <> wrote in message
>> >> news:44621ed9$0$9267$
>> >> >
>> >> > "Chris X" <> wrote in message
>> >> > news:
>> >> >>
>> >> >> "Chris.S" <> wrote in message
>> >> >> news:446219dc$0$9230$
>> >> >> >
>> >> >> > <> wrote in message
>> >> >> > news:
>> >> >> >> Chris.S wrote:
>> >> >> >> > A house is worth what someone will pay for it.
>> >> >> >>
>> >> >> >> No. A house is worth _what a bank will lend someone_ to pay for
> it.
>> >> >> >
>> >> >> > Wrong.
>> >> >> > A house is worth what you are willing to pay for it, you then may
> or
>> >> >> > may
>> >> >> > not
>> >> >> > need to go to a bank where they may or may not agree to give you
> the
>> >> >> > money.
>> >> >> > Whether a bank gives you money says nothing regarding the worth
>> >> >> > of
>> > the
>> >> >> > house
>> >> >> > but more about your credit risk.
>> >> >>
>> >> >> Slimey, the point he's making is that fewer and fewer people are
>> >> >> *earning*
>> >> >> enough to be considered by the banks for a mortgage on a
>> >> >> half-decent
>> >> >> property.
>> >> >
>> >> > Exley,
>> >>
>> >> Who ? I might remind you to watch what you say here, Slimey.
>> >
>> > Why, are there people who are against free speech, Exley, uh?
>>
>> Exley ? Who's that then ? Be more specific ... if you dare ;)
>
> Having a Mike Baldwin moment are we

Cowardice noted.

>> >> > in that case the market will adjust itself, it's called market
>> >> > forces
>> >> > something alien to the BNP I know.
>> >>
>> >> LOL ! Slimey the arch-capitalist !
>> >
>> > It's called the real world X.
>>
>> ROTFLMAO ! Is that the real world Slimey where you can't ever hope to
>> get
> a
>> mortgage - even for a £30,000 terraced dump in Wigan - due to your
>> "condition" ? ;)
>
> £30,000 in Wigan, when you find one tell me.
> I see you've been stalking again

Ok, £25,000 then !

>> >> > Of course adjustment doesn't mean crash as other variables come to
>> >> > mind,
>> >> > such as supply and demand.
>> >> > I suggest the reason why prices are high is that interest rates are
> low
>> >> > and demand out strips supply.
>> >> > If banks stop lending high amount then there will be no demand at
> high
>> >> > prices, it doesn't mean that banks won't lend at all, just not at
>> >> > amount
>> >> > that buyers want to borrow, hence no crash.
>> >>
>> >> LOL ! Slimey the "economist" ... almost too painful for words, isn't
> it
>> >> ?
>> >
>> > Try not thinking if it hurts.
>>
>> Slimey, the concept of you with even one foot in the real world is just
> too horrific to comprehend ... you'd spoil it for the rest of us !
>
> Poor X, can't debate, won't debate, back under the bridge.

ROTFLMAO !

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Andy Pandy" <> wrote in message
news:
>
> "Chris.S" <> wrote in message
> news:446224fd$0$9256$
> > > > I would never make the mistake of comparing a asset such as an house
> > with
> > > > the dot com shares.
> > > > They were pretty meaningless as there was no real assets there.
> > > > with property there is always an asset as people always need homes
to
> > live
> > > > in don't they.
> > >
> > > So what? The principle is the same. Just because an asset is "real" or
> > "needed"
> > > doesn't mean it can't be overvalued.
> >
> > It isn't for the reasons I have explained.
> >
> > Shares in dot coms where valued at a certain level, but when things got
hard
> > there was nothing behind the businesses, no equity, no capital, nothing
> >
> > A house is an asset, we can debate what it is worth but it is an asset
> > particularly as people need them to live in.
>
> The whole *point* is what it's worth, FFS. The point that houses are "an
asset" or
> "needed" is irrelvant

No it isn't and you are missing the point.
I can't explain why idiots buy shares in markets that have no assets, but
people buy houses to live in.
The decision making behind them is different for different reasons.
Typically when you buy a house you do this to live in, also in the knowledge
that it is an investment.
People will pay what they think it is worth to them, to live in it.

When someone buys a share in dot coms they do so to speculate, they don't
buy it on the basis of worth do they? but whether they think its share price
will go up.

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

On 10 May 2006 08:03:07 -0700, "Crowley" <>

typed:

>Straight from the horse's mouth (King is not one of Brown's stooges of
>course) .........

who appointed him!

the 'report' below is inconsistent/incoherent....
therefore he's trying to talk down the economy......

now why would that be?
why is he threatening to tighten money?....that suggest labour will not go
for an early election....
the gov't and king have been inflating like there's no tomorrow.....
so what's he at? trying to shift the blame?

none of that below makes clear consistent sense....not that you
have a hope of following that....

>King sounds warning over economy
>(Filed: 10/05/2006)
>
>
>House prices are overvalued and consumer bankruptcies risk becoming a
>large social problem, the Bank of England Governor Mervyn King has
>warned.

>Speaking at the launch of the Bank's May Inflation Report Mr King said:
>"The level of house prices still seems remarkably high relative to
>those measures that put it into context."
>
>Recent gains in house prices had been more than the Monetary Policy
>Committee, which sets interest rates, had expected but Mr King warned
>this may not carry on as house prices are still high compared with
>average earnings.
>
>Mr King also warned a potentially large social problem of consumer
>bankruptcies may be materialising.
>
>He said: "The proportion of unsecured debtors reporting their debt as a
>serious problem has gone up, the number of calls to the National Debt
>Helpline has risen quite sharply, so I think the signs are that a
>potentially large social problem, with many households getting into
>difficulty with their debts, is materialising."
>
>Last week, official figures showed that the number of people declaring
>themselves insolvent was at its highest since records began - at 23,351
>in the three months to March.
>
>However, Mr King added: "The rate of increase in unsecured borrowing
>has fallen very markedly in the last year. The position on secured debt
>looks relatively benign."
>
>Credit-card debt fell by £579m during March, showing that cardholders
>are cutting back on their spending, according to figures from the
>British Bankers' Association last week.
>
>The country's current account deficit at around 4pc of GDP would need
>to be addressed, according to Mr King, but he was unsure over what
>time-frame this would need to be tackled.
>
>He said: "We keep running current account deficits which means that
>we're spending as a country more than we're producing. And there is a
>limit in the long run to that."

>Bank hints at interest rate rise
>
>

--
web site at www.abelard.org - news comment service, logic, economics
energy, education, politics, etc 1,552,396 document calls in year past
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------
all that is necessary for [] walk quietly and carry
the triumph of evil is that [] a big stick.
good people do nothing [] trust actions not words
only when it's funny -- roger rabbit
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Chris X" <> wrote in message
news:
>
> "Chris.S" <> wrote in message
> news:446225e8$0$9231$
> >
> > "Chris X" <> wrote in message
> > news:
> >>
> >> "Chris.S" <> wrote in message
> >> news:44622273$0$9272$
> >> >
> >> > "Chris X" <> wrote in message
> >> > news:
> >> >>
> >> >> "Chris.S" <> wrote in message
> >> >> news:44621ed9$0$9267$
> >> >> >
> >> >> > "Chris X" <> wrote in message
> >> >> > news:
> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> "Chris.S" <> wrote in message
> >> >> >> news:446219dc$0$9230$
> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> > <> wrote in message
> >> >> >> > news:
> >> >> >> >> Chris.S wrote:
> >> >> >> >> > A house is worth what someone will pay for it.
> >> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> >> No. A house is worth _what a bank will lend someone_ to pay
for
> > it.
> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> > Wrong.
> >> >> >> > A house is worth what you are willing to pay for it, you then
may
> > or
> >> >> >> > may
> >> >> >> > not
> >> >> >> > need to go to a bank where they may or may not agree to give
you
> > the
> >> >> >> > money.
> >> >> >> > Whether a bank gives you money says nothing regarding the worth
> >> >> >> > of
> >> > the
> >> >> >> > house
> >> >> >> > but more about your credit risk.
> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> Slimey, the point he's making is that fewer and fewer people are
> >> >> >> *earning*
> >> >> >> enough to be considered by the banks for a mortgage on a
> >> >> >> half-decent
> >> >> >> property.
> >> >> >
> >> >> > Exley,
> >> >>
> >> >> Who ? I might remind you to watch what you say here, Slimey.
> >> >
> >> > Why, are there people who are against free speech, Exley, uh?
> >>
> >> Exley ? Who's that then ? Be more specific ... if you dare ;)
> >
> > Having a Mike Baldwin moment are we
>
> Cowardice noted.

You very good at using google, I posted it there many times
rotfl

> >> >> > in that case the market will adjust itself, it's called market
> >> >> > forces
> >> >> > something alien to the BNP I know.
> >> >>
> >> >> LOL ! Slimey the arch-capitalist !
> >> >
> >> > It's called the real world X.
> >>
> >> ROTFLMAO ! Is that the real world Slimey where you can't ever hope to
> >> get
> > a
> >> mortgage - even for a £30,000 terraced dump in Wigan - due to your
> >> "condition" ? ;)
> >
> > £30,000 in Wigan, when you find one tell me.
> > I see you've been stalking again
>
> Ok, £25,000 then !

Evidence?

Houses are pretty cheap in WF17 0EB

snigger

> >> >> > Of course adjustment doesn't mean crash as other variables come to
> >> >> > mind,
> >> >> > such as supply and demand.
> >> >> > I suggest the reason why prices are high is that interest rates
are
> > low
> >> >> > and demand out strips supply.
> >> >> > If banks stop lending high amount then there will be no demand at
> > high
> >> >> > prices, it doesn't mean that banks won't lend at all, just not at
> >> >> > amount
> >> >> > that buyers want to borrow, hence no crash.
> >> >>
> >> >> LOL ! Slimey the "economist" ... almost too painful for words,
isn't
> > it
> >> >> ?
> >> >
> >> > Try not thinking if it hurts.
> >>
> >> Slimey, the concept of you with even one foot in the real world is just
> > too horrific to comprehend ... you'd spoil it for the rest of us !
> >
> > Poor X, can't debate, won't debate, back under the bridge.
>
> ROTFLMAO !
>

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Chris.S" <> wrote in message
news:44622c12$0$9230$
>
> "Chris X" <> wrote in message
> news:

>> >> >> > in that case the market will adjust itself, it's called market
>> >> >> > forces something alien to the BNP I know.
>> >> >>
>> >> >> LOL ! Slimey the arch-capitalist !
>> >> >
>> >> > It's called the real world X.
>> >>
>> >> ROTFLMAO ! Is that the real world Slimey where you can't ever hope to
>> >> get
>> > a
>> >> mortgage - even for a £30,000 terraced dump in Wigan - due to your
>> >> "condition" ? ;)
>> >
>> > £30,000 in Wigan, when you find one tell me.
>> > I see you've been stalking again
>>
>> Ok, £25,000 then !
>
> Evidence?

Wigan is a shithole. Next !


>

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

On 10 May 2006 09:39:46 -0700, "Crowley" <>

typed:
>
>Chris.S wrote:
>> "Crowley" <> wrote in message
>> news:
>> Straight from the horse's mouth (King is not one of Brown's stooges of
>> course) .........
>>
>> King sounds warning over economy
>> (Filed: 10/05/2006)
>>
>>
>> House prices are overvalued
>>
>> I do wonder if these people live in the real world.
>> House prices are over valued, well maybe to you but to someone else, no.
>
>While I'm all for people doing their own research and making their own
>minds up I think I'd place more credence on the views of the governor
>of the Bank of England than the ramblings of an internet stalker like
>you Slimey.

no wonder you know nothing...next you'll start lapping up bliar's sheep
dip!
you're incredible creepy....
every time i think the depths of your stupidity have been plumbed..yet
again you exceed yourself....

giggling out loud to the extent of disturbing the office....
you should go on stage...

--
web site at www.abelard.org - news comment service, logic, economics
energy, education, politics, etc 1,552,396 document calls in year past
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------
all that is necessary for [] walk quietly and carry
the triumph of evil is that [] a big stick.
good people do nothing [] trust actions not words
only when it's funny -- roger rabbit
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Chris.S" <> wrote in message
news:44622ab4$0$9247$
> > The whole *point* is what it's worth, FFS. The point that houses are "an
> asset" or
> > "needed" is irrelvant
>
> No it isn't and you are missing the point.
> I can't explain why idiots buy shares in markets that have no assets, but
> people buy houses to live in.
> The decision making behind them is different for different reasons.
> Typically when you buy a house you do this to live in, also in the knowledge
> that it is an investment.
> People will pay what they think it is worth to them, to live in it.
>
> When someone buys a share in dot coms they do so to speculate, they don't
> buy it on the basis of worth do they? but whether they think its share price
> will go up.

So what? The point is that *anything* can be overvalued, whether there is a real
asset behind it or not. If something triples in price over 10 years, then it could
half in price over the next 10 years. Look up what happened in Tokyo since the late
80's if you don't believe the same sort of thing can happen to property prices as
shares.

--
Andy

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

On 10 May 2006 09:49:31 -0700, "Crowley" <>

typed:
>
>Miss L. Toe wrote:
>>
>> Only until and unless the population drops dramatically (?bird flu), and the
>> supply/demand ratio changes.
>
>There's more to it than simple supply and demand as evidenced by the
>historically large inventory of houses on estate agent's books and the
>shortage of buyers for them particularly at these prices.

i see another poster is asking you for evidence....perhaps you should
point out that you don't do evidence creepy....

>This house price bubble has been fed by the massive availability in
>recent years of cheap easy credit much of it borrowed by western banks
>from eastern banks at low rates of interest and then lent to borrowers
>over here at higher rates of interest.

so, you're claiming the loans are made in zlotys perhaps

> (known as the carry trade)

how sweet...he's noticed the latest in phrase of the fossil
scribblers!
what a card you are creepy....

>This
>global liquidity is beginning to dry up.

evidence creepy?
g'wan, you just may be able to work an indicator out for that one....

> Credit tightening is on the
>way. Would be buyers won't be able to raise the credit to pay these
>inflated prices and the bubble will burst.

why would your alleged 'bubble' 'burst' creepy if people couldn't raise
loans to pay 'inflated' prices?

you are a joy and amusement to watch....like an infant trying to impress
adults by using long words he doesn't understand....

>Read this on the ending of the Japanese carry trade and it's likely
>consequences ...........
>
>...........what about all the other massively inflated asset bubbles
>around the world? David Bloom, HSBC currency strategist tells The
>Telegraph: "The carry trade has pervaded every single instrument
>imaginable, credit spreads, bonds spreads: everything is poisoned.
>"It's going to come to an end later this year and it's going to be
>ugly."

how has the carry trade 'poisoned' the international markets creepy?

let's have a creepy definition of 'poisoned'
clue....al-hakky is just gasping to give you one of his simplistic slogans

--
web site at www.abelard.org - news comment service, logic, economics
energy, education, politics, etc 1,552,396 document calls in year past
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------
all that is necessary for [] walk quietly and carry
the triumph of evil is that [] a big stick.
good people do nothing [] trust actions not words
only when it's funny -- roger rabbit
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"abelard" <> wrote in message
news:
> On 10 May 2006 09:49:31 -0700, "Crowley" <>
>
> typed:
>>
>>Miss L. Toe wrote:
>>>
>>> Only until and unless the population drops dramatically (?bird flu), and
>>> the
>>> supply/demand ratio changes.
>>
>>There's more to it than simple supply and demand as evidenced by the
>>historically large inventory of houses on estate agent's books and the
>>shortage of buyers for them particularly at these prices.
>
> i see another poster is asking you for evidence....perhaps you should
> point out that you don't do evidence creepy....
>
>>This house price bubble has been fed by the massive availability in
>>recent years of cheap easy credit much of it borrowed by western banks
>>from eastern banks at low rates of interest and then lent to borrowers
>>over here at higher rates of interest.
>
> so, you're claiming the loans are made in zlotys perhaps
>
>> (known as the carry trade)
>
> how sweet...he's noticed the latest in phrase of the fossil
> scribblers!
> what a card you are creepy....
>
>>This
>>global liquidity is beginning to dry up.
>
> evidence creepy?
> g'wan, you just may be able to work an indicator out for that one....
>
>> Credit tightening is on the
>>way. Would be buyers won't be able to raise the credit to pay these
>>inflated prices and the bubble will burst.
>
> why would your alleged 'bubble' 'burst' creepy if people couldn't raise
> loans to pay 'inflated' prices?
>
> you are a joy and amusement to watch....like an infant trying to impress
> adults by using long words he doesn't understand....
>
>>Read this on the ending of the Japanese carry trade and it's likely
>>consequences ...........
>>
>>...........what about all the other massively inflated asset bubbles
>>around the world? David Bloom, HSBC currency strategist tells The
>>Telegraph: "The carry trade has pervaded every single instrument
>>imaginable, credit spreads, bonds spreads: everything is poisoned.
>>"It's going to come to an end later this year and it's going to be
>>ugly."
>
> how has the carry trade 'poisoned' the international markets creepy?
>
> let's have a creepy definition of 'poisoned'
> clue....al-hakky is just gasping to give you one of his simplistic slogans

Globalist filth like you poison *everything* you touch, Fraudy.

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

On Wed, 10 May 2006 19:27:19 +0100, "Chris X" <>

typed:
>
>"abelard" <> wrote in message
>news:
>> On 10 May 2006 09:49:31 -0700, "Crowley" <>
>>
>> typed:
>>>
>>>Miss L. Toe wrote:
>>>>
>>>> Only until and unless the population drops dramatically (?bird flu), and
>>>> the
>>>> supply/demand ratio changes.
>>>
>>>There's more to it than simple supply and demand as evidenced by the
>>>historically large inventory of houses on estate agent's books and the
>>>shortage of buyers for them particularly at these prices.
>>
>> i see another poster is asking you for evidence....perhaps you should
>> point out that you don't do evidence creepy....
>>
>>>This house price bubble has been fed by the massive availability in
>>>recent years of cheap easy credit much of it borrowed by western banks
>>>from eastern banks at low rates of interest and then lent to borrowers
>>>over here at higher rates of interest.
>>
>> so, you're claiming the loans are made in zlotys perhaps
>>
>>> (known as the carry trade)
>>
>> how sweet...he's noticed the latest in phrase of the fossil
>> scribblers!
>> what a card you are creepy....
>>
>>>This
>>>global liquidity is beginning to dry up.
>>
>> evidence creepy?
>> g'wan, you just may be able to work an indicator out for that one....
>>
>>> Credit tightening is on the
>>>way. Would be buyers won't be able to raise the credit to pay these
>>>inflated prices and the bubble will burst.
>>
>> why would your alleged 'bubble' 'burst' creepy if people couldn't raise
>> loans to pay 'inflated' prices?
>>
>> you are a joy and amusement to watch....like an infant trying to impress
>> adults by using long words he doesn't understand....
>>
>>>Read this on the ending of the Japanese carry trade and it's likely
>>>consequences ...........
>>>
>>>...........what about all the other massively inflated asset bubbles
>>>around the world? David Bloom, HSBC currency strategist tells The
>>>Telegraph: "The carry trade has pervaded every single instrument
>>>imaginable, credit spreads, bonds spreads: everything is poisoned.
>>>"It's going to come to an end later this year and it's going to be
>>>ugly."
>>
>> how has the carry trade 'poisoned' the international markets creepy?
>>
>> let's have a creepy definition of 'poisoned'
>> clue....al-hakky is just gasping to give you one of his simplistic slogans
>
>Globalist filth like you poison *everything* you touch, Fraudy.

you tell him rabbit!!

--
web site at www.abelard.org - news comment service, logic, economics
energy, education, politics, etc 1,552,396 document calls in year past
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------
all that is necessary for [] walk quietly and carry
the triumph of evil is that [] a big stick.
good people do nothing [] trust actions not words
only when it's funny -- roger rabbit
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Miss L. Toe" <> wrote in message
news:44621f5b$0$64670$
>
> "Andy Pandy" <> wrote in message
> news:
>>
>> "Chris.S" <> wrote in message
>> news:4462142c$0$9236$
>> > House prices are overvalued
>> >
>> > I do wonder if these people live in the real world.
>> > House prices are over valued, well maybe to you but to someone else,
>> > no.
>> >
>> > The point of the housing market is that it doesn't work on what
> something is
>> > really worth, talking about what a house is worth is missing the point
> and
>> > not understanding it.
>> >
>> > A house is worth what someone will pay for it.
>>
>> Well obviously, but you've missed the point. On that basis dot.com shares
> weren't
>> overvalued in 2000. The point is that he reckons "what people are
>> willing
> to pay" is
>> too high.
>
> But most have little choice because of the market.
> It is still (in the long term) cheaper than renting.

Only if you think the value is going to increase even
more.

My flat in good condition would sell for 200K.

That will cost what, 9K pa annum to finance, plus
1000 pa for maintenance and 3000 when you come
to sell it.

To rent it will cost 750 pm which equals 9k pa plus
whatever the agency rips you off for in charges.
And that's with the landlord buying white goods,
carpets and curtains which may not be included
in the buying price

ISTM that the cost of renting is below the cost of
owning if the capital gain whilst you own the property
is zero.

IMHO the only reason for buying rather than renting
at the moment is to get the certainty of not having to
move so buying makes no sense in the current market
if you think that you will have to move in a 2-3 year
time-frame anyway.

tim

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

abelard wrote:
typed

> On 10 May 2006 09:49:31 -0700, "Crowley" <>
>
> typed:
> >
> >Miss L. Toe wrote:
> >>
> >> Only until and unless the population drops dramatically (?bird flu), and the
> >> supply/demand ratio changes.
> >
> >There's more to it than simple supply and demand as evidenced by the
> >historically large inventory of houses on estate agent's books and the
> >shortage of buyers for them particularly at these prices.
>
> i see another poster is asking you for evidence....perhaps you should
> point out that you don't do evidence creepy....
>
> >This house price bubble has been fed by the massive availability in
> >recent years of cheap easy credit much of it borrowed by western banks
> >from eastern banks at low rates of interest and then lent to borrowers
> >over here at higher rates of interest.
>
> so, you're claiming the loans are made in zlotys perhaps
>
> > (known as the carry trade)
>
> how sweet...he's noticed the latest in phrase of the fossil
> scribblers!
> what a card you are creepy....
>
> >This
> >global liquidity is beginning to dry up.
>
> evidence creepy?
> g'wan, you just may be able to work an indicator out for that one....
>
> > Credit tightening is on the
> >way. Would be buyers won't be able to raise the credit to pay these
> >inflated prices and the bubble will burst.
>
> why would your alleged 'bubble' 'burst' creepy if people couldn't raise
> loans to pay 'inflated' prices?
>
> you are a joy and amusement to watch....like an infant trying to impress
> adults by using long words he doesn't understand....
>
> >Read this on the ending of the Japanese carry trade and it's likely
> >consequences ...........
> >
> >...........what about all the other massively inflated asset bubbles
> >around the world? David Bloom, HSBC currency strategist tells The
> >Telegraph: "The carry trade has pervaded every single instrument
> >imaginable, credit spreads, bonds spreads: everything is poisoned.
> >"It's going to come to an end later this year and it's going to be
> >ugly."
>
> how has the carry trade 'poisoned' the international markets creepy?
>
> let's have a creepy definition of 'poisoned'
> clue....al-hakky is just gasping to give you one of his simplistic slogans
>
> --
> web site at www.abelard.org - news comment service, logic, economics
> energy, education, politics, etc 1,552,396 document calls in year past
> ------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------
> all that is necessary for [] walk quietly and carry
> the triumph of evil is that [] a big stick.
> good people do nothing [] trust actions not words
> only when it's funny -- roger rabbit
> ------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------

Poor old fraudelard. You've had your sad arse kicked all over usenet
again today so now you're having one of yer tantrums and throwing your
rattle outta the pram.

Well diddums lardy, diddums. LOL

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

On 10 May 2006 11:37:23 -0700, "Crowley" <>

typed:
>
>abelard wrote:
>typed
>
>> On 10 May 2006 09:49:31 -0700, "Crowley" <>
>>
>> typed:
>> >
>> >Miss L. Toe wrote:
>> >>
>> >> Only until and unless the population drops dramatically (?bird flu), and the
>> >> supply/demand ratio changes.
>> >
>> >There's more to it than simple supply and demand as evidenced by the
>> >historically large inventory of houses on estate agent's books and the
>> >shortage of buyers for them particularly at these prices.
>>
>> i see another poster is asking you for evidence....perhaps you should
>> point out that you don't do evidence creepy....
>>
>> >This house price bubble has been fed by the massive availability in
>> >recent years of cheap easy credit much of it borrowed by western banks
>> >from eastern banks at low rates of interest and then lent to borrowers
>> >over here at higher rates of interest.
>>
>> so, you're claiming the loans are made in zlotys perhaps
>>
>> > (known as the carry trade)
>>
>> how sweet...he's noticed the latest in phrase of the fossil
>> scribblers!
>> what a card you are creepy....
>>
>> >This
>> >global liquidity is beginning to dry up.
>>
>> evidence creepy?
>> g'wan, you just may be able to work an indicator out for that one....
>>
>> > Credit tightening is on the
>> >way. Would be buyers won't be able to raise the credit to pay these
>> >inflated prices and the bubble will burst.
>>
>> why would your alleged 'bubble' 'burst' creepy if people couldn't raise
>> loans to pay 'inflated' prices?
>>
>> you are a joy and amusement to watch....like an infant trying to impress
>> adults by using long words he doesn't understand....
>>
>> >Read this on the ending of the Japanese carry trade and it's likely
>> >consequences ...........
>> >
>> >...........what about all the other massively inflated asset bubbles
>> >around the world? David Bloom, HSBC currency strategist tells The
>> >Telegraph: "The carry trade has pervaded every single instrument
>> >imaginable, credit spreads, bonds spreads: everything is poisoned.
>> >"It's going to come to an end later this year and it's going to be
>> >ugly."
>>
>> how has the carry trade 'poisoned' the international markets creepy?
>>
>> let's have a creepy definition of 'poisoned'
>> clue....al-hakky is just gasping to give you one of his simplistic slogans

>Poor old fraudelard. You've had your sad arse kicked all over usenet
>again today so now you're having one of yer tantrums and throwing your
>rattle outta the pram.
>
>Well diddums lardy, diddums. LOL

now creepy....are you running on your own little leggies or are you
hitching a ride on the rabbit?

--
web site at www.abelard.org - news comment service, logic, economics
energy, education, politics, etc 1,552,396 document calls in year past
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------
all that is necessary for [] walk quietly and carry
the triumph of evil is that [] a big stick.
good people do nothing [] trust actions not words
only when it's funny -- roger rabbit
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Crowley" <> wrote in message
news:
>
> Miss L. Toe wrote:
>>
>> Only until and unless the population drops dramatically (?bird flu), and
>> the
>> supply/demand ratio changes.
>
> There's more to it than simple supply and demand as evidenced by the
> historically large inventory of houses on estate agent's books and the
> shortage of buyers for them particularly at these prices.

what makes you say that? there was a report in the FT (iirc) on monday
saying that there had been a large increase in the amount of houses sold in
the first 3 months of this year. You seem to 'wish' there to be a bubble and
a pop but evidence at least shows there isnt a pop or any sign of one.





--
Tumbleweed

email replies not necessary but to contact use;
tumbleweednews at hotmail dot com

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

On Wed, 10 May 2006 18:52:26 +0100, "Andy Pandy"
<>

typed:
>
>"Chris.S" <> wrote in message
>news:446224fd$0$9256$
>> > > I would never make the mistake of comparing a asset such as an house
>> with
>> > > the dot com shares.
>> > > They were pretty meaningless as there was no real assets there.
>> > > with property there is always an asset as people always need homes to
>> live
>> > > in don't they.
>> >
>> > So what? The principle is the same. Just because an asset is "real" or
>> "needed"
>> > doesn't mean it can't be overvalued.
>>
>> It isn't for the reasons I have explained.
>>
>> Shares in dot coms where valued at a certain level, but when things got hard
>> there was nothing behind the businesses, no equity, no capital, nothing
>>
>> A house is an asset, we can debate what it is worth but it is an asset
>> particularly as people need them to live in.
>
>The whole *point* is what it's worth, FFS. The point that houses are "an asset" or
>"needed" is irrelvant, it's exactly the same asset at is was 10 years ago, if it was
>worth £100,000 10 years ago but is now worth £300,000, then what does the extra
>£200,000 respresent? The "asset" hasn't changed, the "need to live in it" hasn't
>changed, but it's now worth £200,000 more. The £200,000 extra is no different to
>£200,000 of dot.com shares.

oh yes it is different....
this year's money is much less valuable than 10 years ago money....
especially in the uk.

--
web site at www.abelard.org - news comment service, logic, economics
energy, education, politics, etc 1,552,396 document calls in year past
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------
all that is necessary for [] walk quietly and carry
the triumph of evil is that [] a big stick.
good people do nothing [] trust actions not words
only when it's funny -- roger rabbit
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

On Wed, 10 May 2006 18:55:37 +0100, "Miss L. Toe"
<>

typed:
>
>"Andy Pandy" <> wrote in message
>news:
>>
>> "Chris.S" <> wrote in message
>> news:446224fd$0$9256$
>> > > > I would never make the mistake of comparing a asset such as an house
>> > with
>> > > > the dot com shares.
>> > > > They were pretty meaningless as there was no real assets there.
>> > > > with property there is always an asset as people always need homes
>to
>> > live
>> > > > in don't they.
>> > >
>> > > So what? The principle is the same. Just because an asset is "real" or
>> > "needed"
>> > > doesn't mean it can't be overvalued.
>> >
>> > It isn't for the reasons I have explained.
>> >
>> > Shares in dot coms where valued at a certain level, but when things got
>hard
>> > there was nothing behind the businesses, no equity, no capital, nothing
>> >
>> > A house is an asset, we can debate what it is worth but it is an asset
>> > particularly as people need them to live in.
>>
>> The whole *point* is what it's worth, FFS. The point that houses are "an
>asset" or
>> "needed" is irrelvant, it's exactly the same asset at is was 10 years ago,
>if it was
>> worth £100,000 10 years ago but is now worth £300,000, then what does the
>extra
>> £200,000 respresent? The "asset" hasn't changed, the "need to live in it"
>hasn't
>> changed, but it's now worth £200,000 more. The £200,000 extra is no
>different to
>> £200,000 of dot.com shares.

>I think a comparison to the price of Gold might be more valid.

1)why?
2)more 'valid' than what exactly?

regards...

--
web site at www.abelard.org - news comment service, logic, economics
energy, education, politics, etc 1,552,396 document calls in year past
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------
all that is necessary for [] walk quietly and carry
the triumph of evil is that [] a big stick.
good people do nothing [] trust actions not words
only when it's funny -- roger rabbit
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"abelard" <> wrote in message
news:
> On Wed, 10 May 2006 18:55:37 +0100, "Miss L. Toe"
> <>
>
> typed:
> >
> >"Andy Pandy" <> wrote in message
> >news:
> >>
> >> "Chris.S" <> wrote in message
> >> news:446224fd$0$9256$
> >> > > > I would never make the mistake of comparing a asset such as an
house
> >> > with
> >> > > > the dot com shares.
> >> > > > They were pretty meaningless as there was no real assets there.
> >> > > > with property there is always an asset as people always need
homes
> >to
> >> > live
> >> > > > in don't they.
> >> > >
> >> > > So what? The principle is the same. Just because an asset is "real"
or
> >> > "needed"
> >> > > doesn't mean it can't be overvalued.
> >> >
> >> > It isn't for the reasons I have explained.
> >> >
> >> > Shares in dot coms where valued at a certain level, but when things
got
> >hard
> >> > there was nothing behind the businesses, no equity, no capital,
nothing
> >> >
> >> > A house is an asset, we can debate what it is worth but it is an
asset
> >> > particularly as people need them to live in.
> >>
> >> The whole *point* is what it's worth, FFS. The point that houses are
"an
> >asset" or
> >> "needed" is irrelvant, it's exactly the same asset at is was 10 years
ago,
> >if it was
> >> worth £100,000 10 years ago but is now worth £300,000, then what does
the
> >extra
> >> £200,000 respresent? The "asset" hasn't changed, the "need to live in
it"
> >hasn't
> >> changed, but it's now worth £200,000 more. The £200,000 extra is no
> >different to
> >> £200,000 of dot.com shares.
>
> >I think a comparison to the price of Gold might be more valid.
>
> 1)why?

Because it is an asset not a speculation.

> 2)more 'valid' than what exactly?

more valid than a comparison of house prices to dot com share prices.

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

Tumbleweed wrote:

> "Crowley" <> wrote in message
> >
> > There's more to it than simple supply and demand as evidenced by the
> > historically large inventory of houses on estate agent's books and the
> > shortage of buyers for them particularly at these prices.
>
> what makes you say that? there was a report in the FT (iirc) on monday
> saying that there had been a large increase in the amount of houses sold in
> the first 3 months of this year.

A 37% increase in sales from the same quarter last year when sales were
at rock bottom. So a 37% increase on 'rock bottom'. Impressive !


>You seem to 'wish' there to be a bubble and
> a pop but evidence at least shows there isnt a pop or any sign of one.

I haven't said the bubble's 'popped' *yet*. But it will. What is there
to stop it ? Where's the money going to come from to maintain prices
massively out of kilter with basic fundamentals and which even the
governor of the Bank of England in his understated way describes as
"overvalued" ?

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

>
> Only until and unless the population drops dramatically (?bird flu), and the
> supply/demand ratio changes.

Wouldn't need anything too dramatic to occur just pen, paper and a
rewrite of the planning laws to free up the countryside for
development, basically what the Government is proposing.

It's not the price of houses that's the issue it's the price of land
and to have such high land prices in the 49th least crowded country in
the World is just plain dumb. Especially, when so much agricultural
land just sits there eating up subsidy.

It also goes to show just how fragile the house price boom could really
be when a simple change in regulation could bring the whole lot
tumbling down.

All inflation is bad for an economy and house price inflation is no
different. House prices, truely left to the market place, should go
down in real terms due to improvements in technology and building
methods. This will never happen whilst the housing market remains so
regulated but, with increasing inward migration required to keep the
economy growing, the square now needs to be circled and whoever is in
power expect that to happen very soon.

Our attitude to buying a house should be no different to that when
buying a car or white goods. It's not an investment decision but a
consumer decision.

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"allan tracy" <> wrote in message
news:
> >
> > Only until and unless the population drops dramatically (?bird flu), and
the
> > supply/demand ratio changes.
>
> Wouldn't need anything too dramatic to occur just pen, paper and a
> rewrite of the planning laws to free up the countryside for
> development, basically what the Government is proposing.
>

and then lots of houses being built.
but yes, changing the supply side would have the same effect as changing the
demand side.

> It's not the price of houses that's the issue it's the price of land
> and to have such high land prices in the 49th least crowded country in
> the World is just plain dumb. Especially, when so much agricultural
> land just sits there eating up subsidy.
>
> It also goes to show just how fragile the house price boom could really
> be when a simple change in regulation could bring the whole lot
> tumbling down.
>

It needs the houses built in areas where the jobs are as well.

> All inflation is bad for an economy

Tell that to the Japanese.

> and house price inflation is no
> different. House prices, truely left to the market place, should go
> down in real terms due to improvements in technology and building
> methods. This will never happen whilst the housing market remains so
> regulated


Regulated housing market ??????????

> but, with increasing inward migration required to keep the
> economy growing, the square now needs to be circled and whoever is in
> power expect that to happen very soon.
>

You think they properly plan these things ?????

> Our attitude to buying a house should be no different to that when
> buying a car or white goods. It's not an investment decision but a
> consumer decision.

Agreed, except it shouldnt need replacing during your lifetime.

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"tim (back at home)" <> wrote in message
news:
>
>
> "Miss L. Toe" <> wrote in message
> news:44621f5b$0$64670$
> >
> > "Andy Pandy" <> wrote in message
> > news:
> >>
> >> "Chris.S" <> wrote in message
> >> news:4462142c$0$9236$
> >> > House prices are overvalued
> >> >
> >> > I do wonder if these people live in the real world.
> >> > House prices are over valued, well maybe to you but to someone else,
> >> > no.
> >> >
> >> > The point of the housing market is that it doesn't work on what
> > something is
> >> > really worth, talking about what a house is worth is missing the
point
> > and
> >> > not understanding it.
> >> >
> >> > A house is worth what someone will pay for it.
> >>
> >> Well obviously, but you've missed the point. On that basis dot.com
shares
> > weren't
> >> overvalued in 2000. The point is that he reckons "what people are
> >> willing
> > to pay" is
> >> too high.
> >
> > But most have little choice because of the market.
> > It is still (in the long term) cheaper than renting.
>
> Only if you think the value is going to increase even
> more.
>

well, you sort of have to assume that both house prices and renatl will
increase with inflation - in the long term.

> My flat in good condition would sell for 200K.
>
> That will cost what, 9K pa annum to finance, plus
> 1000 pa for maintenance and 3000 when you come
> to sell it.
>
> To rent it will cost 750 pm which equals 9k pa plus
> whatever the agency rips you off for in charges.
> And that's with the landlord buying white goods,
> carpets and curtains which may not be included
> in the buying price
>
> ISTM that the cost of renting is below the cost of
> owning if the capital gain whilst you own the property
> is zero.
>
> IMHO the only reason for buying rather than renting
> at the moment is to get the certainty of not having to
> move so buying makes no sense in the current market
> if you think that you will have to move in a 2-3 year
> time-frame anyway.

Buying makes no sense if you are only going to live there for a short time
frame.

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"abelard" <> wrote in message
news:
> >The whole *point* is what it's worth, FFS. The point that houses are "an asset" or
> >"needed" is irrelvant, it's exactly the same asset at is was 10 years ago, if it
was
> >worth £100,000 10 years ago but is now worth £300,000, then what does the extra
> >£200,000 respresent? The "asset" hasn't changed, the "need to live in it" hasn't
> >changed, but it's now worth £200,000 more. The £200,000 extra is no different to
> >£200,000 of dot.com shares.
>
> oh yes it is different....
> this year's money is much less valuable than 10 years ago money....
> especially in the uk.

Yeah - about 22% less valuable, not 67%.

--
Andy

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Miss L. Toe" <> wrote in message
news:44623d77$0$12167$
> > IMHO the only reason for buying rather than renting
> > at the moment is to get the certainty of not having to
> > move so buying makes no sense in the current market
> > if you think that you will have to move in a 2-3 year
> > time-frame anyway.
>
> Buying makes no sense if you are only going to live there for a short time
> frame.

It's amazing the number of people who think it's a no-brainer to buy their university
student kids a flat for 3 years rather than paying rent!

--
Andy

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

On Wed, 10 May 2006 20:23:36 +0100, "Andy Pandy"
<>

typed:
>
>"abelard" <> wrote in message
>news:
>> >The whole *point* is what it's worth, FFS. The point that houses are "an asset" or
>> >"needed" is irrelvant, it's exactly the same asset at is was 10 years ago, if it
>was
>> >worth £100,000 10 years ago but is now worth £300,000, then what does the extra
>> >£200,000 respresent? The "asset" hasn't changed, the "need to live in it" hasn't
>> >changed, but it's now worth £200,000 more. The £200,000 extra is no different to
>> >£200,000 of dot.com shares.
>>
>> oh yes it is different....
>> this year's money is much less valuable than 10 years ago money....
>> especially in the uk.
>
>Yeah - about 22% less valuable, not 67%.

you are confusing rpi with inflation...

regards...

--
web site at www.abelard.org - news comment service, logic, economics
energy, education, politics, etc 1,552,396 document calls in year past
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------
all that is necessary for [] walk quietly and carry
the triumph of evil is that [] a big stick.
good people do nothing [] trust actions not words
only when it's funny -- roger rabbit
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Crowley" <> wrote in message
news:
>
> Tumbleweed wrote:
>
>> "Crowley" <> wrote in message
>> >
>> > There's more to it than simple supply and demand as evidenced by the
>> > historically large inventory of houses on estate agent's books and the
>> > shortage of buyers for them particularly at these prices.
>>
>> what makes you say that? there was a report in the FT (iirc) on monday
>> saying that there had been a large increase in the amount of houses sold
>> in
>> the first 3 months of this year.
>
> A 37% increase in sales from the same quarter last year when sales were
> at rock bottom. So a 37% increase on 'rock bottom'. Impressive !
>

So, you'd agree that even at "rock bottom", there was no crash. Now sales
are increasing (apparently). So, even more unlikely there will be a crash.
How long will you continue before you agree that you are, wait for it,
_wrong_? Would you ever contemplate the prospect that you _might_ be wrong?

BTW, in case you want to ask if I ever might contemplate that, well my
position is that you are wrong in your certainty about knowing what will
happen, and as we can see, so far I am 100% correct, eg your predictions are
and have been completely and utterly crap and the only way you'll be correct
is via the broken watch principle :-)

>>You seem to 'wish' there to be a bubble and
>> a pop but evidence at least shows there isnt a pop or any sign of one.
>
> I haven't said the bubble's 'popped' *yet*. But it will. What is there
> to stop it ? Where's the money going to come from to maintain prices
> massively out of kilter with basic fundamentals and which even the
> governor of the Bank of England in his understated way describes as
> "overvalued" ?

The money doesnt have to come from anywhere to maintain prices at their
current levels. It would have to come from somewhere to fuel a rise.

As to basic fundamentals, seems to me that for a long time, house prices
were equal to a certain multiplier of the average wage. Now, they are equal
to a different multiplier. There is no law of economics let alone nature
that says that the former is the 'right' multiplier and hence no certainty
about a crash (which would be needed to get back to the previous level).
Maybe for the forseeable future, the current multiplier will be the 'right'
one and maybe thats where your determination there should and will be a
crash comes from. Maybe thats where the Gov is wrong as well?

As someone once said, if you laid all the economists end to end, they still
wouldnt reach a conclusion.

--
Tumbleweed

email replies not necessary but to contact use;
tumbleweednews at hotmail dot com

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Miss L. Toe" <> wrote in message
news:44623770$0$15916$

>>
>> >I think a comparison to the price of Gold might be more valid.
>>
>> 1)why?
>
> Because it is an asset not a speculation.

isnt the gold price mostly speculation? Other than in electronics, its
fundamentally useless.And the recent rise is due entirely to speculation.
Every time there is a war or some other crisis the price of gold rises
purely due to speculation, not because people want to build more electronic
components.

--
Tumbleweed

email replies not necessary but to contact use;
tumbleweednews at hotmail dot com

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"abelard" <> wrote in message
news:
> >Yeah - about 22% less valuable, not 67%.
>
> you are confusing rpi with inflation...

So let's see your method of measuring inflation.

--
Andy

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Tumbleweed" <> wrote in message
news:
>
> "Miss L. Toe" <> wrote in message
> news:44623770$0$15916$
>
> >>
> >> >I think a comparison to the price of Gold might be more valid.
> >>
> >> 1)why?
> >
> > Because it is an asset not a speculation.
>
> isnt the gold price mostly speculation? Other than in electronics, its
> fundamentally useless.

There is also a very big jewellery market, which will grow enormously (IMO)
as India gets more prosperous.

> And the recent rise is due entirely to speculation.
> Every time there is a war or some other crisis the price of gold rises
> purely due to speculation, not because people want to build more
electronic
> components.
>

Maybe I will think of a better analogy, I was just thinking it was better
because there was something more than a piece of paper :-)

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

On Wed, 10 May 2006 20:41:09 +0100, "Andy Pandy"
<>

typed:
>
>"abelard" <> wrote in message
>news:
>> >Yeah - about 22% less valuable, not 67%.
>>
>> you are confusing rpi with inflation...
>
>So let's see your method of measuring inflation.

monetary expansion - gdp increase....
currently ~11% in the uk....

regards...

--
web site at www.abelard.org - news comment service, logic, economics
energy, education, politics, etc 1,552,396 document calls in year past
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------
all that is necessary for [] walk quietly and carry
the triumph of evil is that [] a big stick.
good people do nothing [] trust actions not words
only when it's funny -- roger rabbit
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Andy Pandy" <> wrote in message
news:
>
> "Miss L. Toe" <> wrote in message
> news:44623d77$0$12167$
>> > IMHO the only reason for buying rather than renting
>> > at the moment is to get the certainty of not having to
>> > move so buying makes no sense in the current market
>> > if you think that you will have to move in a 2-3 year
>> > time-frame anyway.
>>
>> Buying makes no sense if you are only going to live there for a short
>> time
>> frame.
>
> It's amazing the number of people who think it's a no-brainer to buy their
> university
> student kids a flat for 3 years rather than paying rent!
>

well, there was a time it was. Even now, with a number of students, 'your'
student can effectively end up living rent free as well.

--
Tumbleweed

email replies not necessary but to contact use;
tumbleweednews at hotmail dot com

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Miss L. Toe" <> wrote in message
news:4462431e$0$15725$

>>
>> isnt the gold price mostly speculation? Other than in electronics, its
>> fundamentally useless.
>
> There is also a very big jewellery market, which will grow enormously
> (IMO)
> as India gets more prosperous.
>
>

Hmm, thats a good point. Though it would be interesting to know what
proportion of gold goes into jewelry. I'd guess its insignificant but I dont
know.

--
Tumbleweed

email replies not necessary but to contact use;
tumbleweednews at hotmail dot com

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

On Wed, 10 May 2006 20:21:38 +0100, "Miss L. Toe"
<>

typed:
>
>"tim (back at home)" <> wrote in message
>news:
>>
>>
>> "Miss L. Toe" <> wrote in message
>> news:44621f5b$0$64670$
>> >
>> > "Andy Pandy" <> wrote in message
>> > news:
>> >>
>> >> "Chris.S" <> wrote in message
>> >> news:4462142c$0$9236$
>> >> > House prices are overvalued
>> >> >
>> >> > I do wonder if these people live in the real world.
>> >> > House prices are over valued, well maybe to you but to someone else,
>> >> > no.
>> >> >
>> >> > The point of the housing market is that it doesn't work on what
>> > something is
>> >> > really worth, talking about what a house is worth is missing the
>point
>> > and
>> >> > not understanding it.
>> >> >
>> >> > A house is worth what someone will pay for it.
>> >>
>> >> Well obviously, but you've missed the point. On that basis dot.com
>shares
>> > weren't
>> >> overvalued in 2000. The point is that he reckons "what people are
>> >> willing
>> > to pay" is
>> >> too high.
>> >
>> > But most have little choice because of the market.
>> > It is still (in the long term) cheaper than renting.
>>
>> Only if you think the value is going to increase even
>> more.
>>
>
>well, you sort of have to assume that both house prices and renatl will
>increase with inflation - in the long term.

and wages...

regards....


--
web site at www.abelard.org - news comment service, logic, economics
energy, education, politics, etc 1,552,396 document calls in year past
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------
all that is necessary for [] walk quietly and carry
the triumph of evil is that [] a big stick.
good people do nothing [] trust actions not words
only when it's funny -- roger rabbit
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

On Wed, 10 May 2006 21:03:28 +0100, "Tumbleweed"
<>

typed:
>
>"Andy Pandy" <> wrote in message
>news:
>>
>> "Miss L. Toe" <> wrote in message
>> news:44623d77$0$12167$
>>> > IMHO the only reason for buying rather than renting
>>> > at the moment is to get the certainty of not having to
>>> > move so buying makes no sense in the current market
>>> > if you think that you will have to move in a 2-3 year
>>> > time-frame anyway.
>>>
>>> Buying makes no sense if you are only going to live there for a short
>>> time
>>> frame.
>>
>> It's amazing the number of people who think it's a no-brainer to buy their
>> university
>> student kids a flat for 3 years rather than paying rent!

>well, there was a time it was. Even now, with a number of students, 'your'
>student can effectively end up living rent free as well.

there is another factor...
accommodation around unis is under pressure as student
number rise (supply and demand)...
bliar thinks it's worthwhile buying in such circs...and he makes
the policy!

regards..

--
web site at www.abelard.org - news comment service, logic, economics
energy, education, politics, etc 1,552,396 document calls in year past
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------
all that is necessary for [] walk quietly and carry
the triumph of evil is that [] a big stick.
good people do nothing [] trust actions not words
only when it's funny -- roger rabbit
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

On 10 May 2006 12:01:07 -0700, "allan tracy"
<>

typed:
>>
>> Only until and unless the population drops dramatically (?bird flu), and the
>> supply/demand ratio changes.
>
>Wouldn't need anything too dramatic to occur just pen, paper and a
>rewrite of the planning laws to free up the countryside for
>development, basically what the Government is proposing.
>
>It's not the price of houses that's the issue it's the price of land
>and to have such high land prices in the 49th least crowded country in
>the World is just plain dumb. Especially, when so much agricultural
>land just sits there eating up subsidy.
>
>It also goes to show just how fragile the house price boom could really
>be when a simple change in regulation could bring the whole lot
>tumbling down.
>
>All inflation is bad for an economy and house price inflation is no
>different. House prices, truely left to the market place, should go
>down in real terms due to improvements in technology and building
>methods. This will never happen whilst the housing market remains so
>regulated but, with increasing inward migration required to keep the
>economy growing, the square now needs to be circled and whoever is in
>power expect that to happen very soon.
>
>Our attitude to buying a house should be no different to that when
>buying a car or white goods. It's not an investment decision but a
>consumer decision.

interesting post..thanx...

regards.

--
web site at www.abelard.org - news comment service, logic, economics
energy, education, politics, etc 1,552,396 document calls in year past
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------
all that is necessary for [] walk quietly and carry
the triumph of evil is that [] a big stick.
good people do nothing [] trust actions not words
only when it's funny -- roger rabbit
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

Tumbleweed wrote:
> "Crowley" <> wrote in message
> news:
> >
> > Tumbleweed wrote:
> >
> >> "Crowley" <> wrote in message
> >> >
> >> > There's more to it than simple supply and demand as evidenced by the
> >> > historically large inventory of houses on estate agent's books and the
> >> > shortage of buyers for them particularly at these prices.
> >>
> >> what makes you say that? there was a report in the FT (iirc) on monday
> >> saying that there had been a large increase in the amount of houses sold
> >> in
> >> the first 3 months of this year.
> >
> > A 37% increase in sales from the same quarter last year when sales were
> > at rock bottom. So a 37% increase on 'rock bottom'. Impressive !
> >
>
> So, you'd agree that even at "rock bottom", there was no crash. Now sales
> are increasing (apparently). So, even more unlikely there will be a crash.
> How long will you continue before you agree that you are, wait for it,
> _wrong_? Would you ever contemplate the prospect that you _might_ be wrong?
>
> BTW, in case you want to ask if I ever might contemplate that, well my
> position is that you are wrong in your certainty about knowing what will
> happen, and as we can see, so far I am 100% correct, eg your predictions are
> and have been completely and utterly crap and the only way you'll be correct
> is via the broken watch principle :-)

I find it astounding that you seem to believe that because we haven't
had a crash yet we are not going to get one. Has the world ended
already ? LOL

I'm sure there were plenty who thought like you back in 89/90, and even
plenty of tech stock 'investors' in 2000 who believed the party would
never end.


> >>You seem to 'wish' there to be a bubble and
> >> a pop but evidence at least shows there isnt a pop or any sign of one.
> >
> > I haven't said the bubble's 'popped' *yet*. But it will. What is there
> > to stop it ? Where's the money going to come from to maintain prices
> > massively out of kilter with basic fundamentals and which even the
> > governor of the Bank of England in his understated way describes as
> > "overvalued" ?
>
> The money doesnt have to come from anywhere to maintain prices at their
> current levels. It would have to come from somewhere to fuel a rise.

Of course money "has to come from somewhere" to maintain current price
levels. What do you think people are going to buy houses with ? scotch
mist ? When credit is tightened would be buyers will find they can't
borrow enough to pay these current prices. What do you imagine might
happen then ?

> As to basic fundamentals, seems to me that for a long time, house prices
> were equal to a certain multiplier of the average wage. Now, they are equal
> to a different multiplier. There is no law of economics let alone nature
> that says that the former is the 'right' multiplier and hence no certainty
> about a crash (which would be needed to get back to the previous level).
> Maybe for the forseeable future, the current multiplier will be the 'right'
> one and maybe thats where your determination there should and will be a
> crash comes from. Maybe thats where the Gov is wrong as well?

There's always plenty who think "it's different this time". But it
never is. After all, why should it be ? What's different ?

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Tumbleweed" <> wrote in message
news:
> > It's amazing the number of people who think it's a no-brainer to buy their
> > university
> > student kids a flat for 3 years rather than paying rent!
> >
>
> well, there was a time it was.

It was never a "no-brainer". There were of course times when it would have paid off,
but never a certainty.

> Even now, with a number of students, 'your'
> student can effectively end up living rent free as well.

They just pay the buying and selling costs....

--
Andy

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"abelard" <> wrote in message
news:
> >> >Yeah - about 22% less valuable, not 67%.
> >>
> >> you are confusing rpi with inflation...
> >
> >So let's see your method of measuring inflation.
>
> monetary expansion - gdp increase....
> currently ~11% in the uk....

Duh, that's not inflation. I'll stick with RPI.

--
Andy

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

On Wed, 10 May 2006 18:22:21 +0100, "Chris X" <>

typed:
>
>"Chris.S" <> wrote in message
>news:44621ed9$0$9267$
>>
>> "Chris X" <> wrote in message
>> news:
>>>
>>> "Chris.S" <> wrote in message
>>> news:446219dc$0$9230$
>>> >
>>> > <> wrote in message
>>> > news:
>>> >> Chris.S wrote:
>>> >> > A house is worth what someone will pay for it.
>>> >>
>>> >> No. A house is worth _what a bank will lend someone_ to pay for it.
>>> >
>>> > Wrong.
>>> > A house is worth what you are willing to pay for it, you then may or
>>> > may
>>> > not
>>> > need to go to a bank where they may or may not agree to give you the
>>> > money.
>>> > Whether a bank gives you money says nothing regarding the worth of the
>>> > house
>>> > but more about your credit risk.
>>>
>>> Slimey, the point he's making is that fewer and fewer people are
>>> *earning*
>>> enough to be considered by the banks for a mortgage on a half-decent
>>> property.
>>
>> Exley,
>
>Who ? I might remind you to watch what you say here, Slimey.
>
>> in that case the market will adjust itself, it's called market forces
>> something alien to the BNP I know.
>
>LOL ! Slimey the arch-capitalist !

what's the bollix n prick's 'policy' rabbit? price controls?

--
web site at www.abelard.org - news comment service, logic, economics
energy, education, politics, etc 1,552,396 document calls in year past
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------
all that is necessary for [] walk quietly and carry
the triumph of evil is that [] a big stick.
good people do nothing [] trust actions not words
only when it's funny -- roger rabbit
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Chris X" <> wrote in message
news:
> "Chris.S" <> wrote in message
> news:44622c12$0$9230$
> >
> > "Chris X" <> wrote in message
> > news:
>
> >> >> >> > in that case the market will adjust itself, it's called market
> >> >> >> > forces something alien to the BNP I know.
> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> LOL ! Slimey the arch-capitalist !
> >> >> >
> >> >> > It's called the real world X.
> >> >>
> >> >> ROTFLMAO ! Is that the real world Slimey where you can't ever hope
to
> >> >> get
> >> > a
> >> >> mortgage - even for a £30,000 terraced dump in Wigan - due to your
> >> >> "condition" ? ;)
> >> >
> >> > £30,000 in Wigan, when you find one tell me.
> >> > I see you've been stalking again
> >>
> >> Ok, £25,000 then !
> >
> > Evidence?
>
> Wigan is a shithole. Next !

Speaking of which WF17 0EB

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"abelard" <> wrote in message
news:
> On Wed, 10 May 2006 18:22:21 +0100, "Chris X" <>
>
> typed:
>>
>>"Chris.S" <> wrote in message
>>news:44621ed9$0$9267$
>>>
>>> "Chris X" <> wrote in message
>>> news:
>>>>
>>>> "Chris.S" <> wrote in message
>>>> news:446219dc$0$9230$
>>>> >
>>>> > <> wrote in message
>>>> > news:
>>>> >> Chris.S wrote:
>>>> >> > A house is worth what someone will pay for it.
>>>> >>
>>>> >> No. A house is worth _what a bank will lend someone_ to pay for it.
>>>> >
>>>> > Wrong.
>>>> > A house is worth what you are willing to pay for it, you then may or
>>>> > may
>>>> > not
>>>> > need to go to a bank where they may or may not agree to give you the
>>>> > money.
>>>> > Whether a bank gives you money says nothing regarding the worth of
>>>> > the
>>>> > house
>>>> > but more about your credit risk.
>>>>
>>>> Slimey, the point he's making is that fewer and fewer people are
>>>> *earning*
>>>> enough to be considered by the banks for a mortgage on a half-decent
>>>> property.
>>>
>>> Exley,
>>
>>Who ? I might remind you to watch what you say here, Slimey.
>>
>>> in that case the market will adjust itself, it's called market forces
>>> something alien to the BNP I know.
>>
>>LOL ! Slimey the arch-capitalist !
>
> what's the bollix n prick's 'policy' rabbit? price controls?

Oh Christ - Fraudy's seeking allies .... "Apply Within" !

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

On Wed, 10 May 2006 18:04:33 +0100, "Chris.S" <>

typed:
>
>"Crowley" <> wrote in message
>news:
>>
>> Chris.S wrote:
>> .
>>
>> > "Crowley" <> wrote in message
>> > news:
>> > >
>> > > Chris.S wrote:
>> > > > "Crowley" <> wrote in message
>> > > > news:
>> > > > Straight from the horse's mouth (King is not one of Brown's stooges
>of
>> > > > course) .........
>> > > >
>> > > > King sounds warning over economy
>> > > > (Filed: 10/05/2006)
>> > > >
>> >
>
>> > > >
>> > > > House prices are overvalued
>> > > >
>> > > > I do wonder if these people live in the real world.
>> > > > House prices are over valued, well maybe to you but to someone else,
>no.
>> > >
>> > > While I'm all for people doing their own research and making their own
>> > > minds up I think I'd place more credence on the views of the governor
>> > > of the Bank of England than the ramblings of an internet stalker like
>> > > you Slimey.
>> >
>> > These are the same people who you swallow every line they spill out, for
>> > which you have been predicting a house price crash for goodness knows
>how
>> > long.
>> > You and they have been consistently wrong and will continue to be as
>they
>> > miss the point.
>> > Whether there is a crash or not has nothing to do what a house is worth.
>>
>> Stop trying to pretend you know anything about it lamebrain.
>
>You're the one who has for, how long is it, been crying that there would be
>a crash.
>It is you who swallows every report without the ability to think it through,
>not I.
>You already got zero credibility in regard to predicting a crash.
>
>> You're just a fuckwit, a stallker, and a troll. Live with it and stop
>> trying to get above yourself.
>
>Who is it that is incapable of debate, not me, it is you who is abusive.

be fair...you know full well that is his only card...
what else can a rabbit manage beside that and running.....

rabbit wants company...rabbit want people to believe he's a big boy....

don't be unkind to rabbit....take him as he is and stop expecting
miracles...
be kind to the mentally challenged rabbit...

--
web site at www.abelard.org - news comment service, logic, economics
energy, education, politics, etc 1,552,396 document calls in year past
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------
all that is necessary for [] walk quietly and carry
the triumph of evil is that [] a big stick.
good people do nothing [] trust actions not words
only when it's funny -- roger rabbit
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Chris.S" <> wrote in message
news:44625313$0$9255$
> "Chris X" <> wrote in message
> news:

>> >> >> >> > in that case the market will adjust itself, it's called market
>> >> >> >> > forces something alien to the BNP I know.
>> >> >> >>
>> >> >> >> LOL ! Slimey the arch-capitalist !
>> >> >> >
>> >> >> > It's called the real world X.
>> >> >>
>> >> >> ROTFLMAO ! Is that the real world Slimey where you can't ever hope
>> >> >> to get a mortgage - even for a £30,000 terraced dump in Wigan - due
>> >> >> to your
>> >> >> "condition" ? ;)
>> >> >
>> >> > £30,000 in Wigan, when you find one tell me.
>> >> > I see you've been stalking again
>> >>
>> >> Ok, £25,000 then !
>> >
>> > Evidence?
>>
>> Wigan is a shithole. Next !
>
> Speaking of which WF17 0EB

Posting postcodes doesn't change the fact that Wigan is a hole, Slimey. I
bet you feel like a king when you check in for your "full services" at
Wythenshawe !

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"abelard" <> wrote in message
news:
> On Wed, 10 May 2006 18:04:33 +0100, "Chris.S" <>
>
> typed:
>>
>>"Crowley" <> wrote in message
>>news:
>>>
>>> Chris.S wrote:
>>> .
>>>
>>> > "Crowley" <> wrote in message
>>> > news:
>>> > >
>>> > > Chris.S wrote:
>>> > > > "Crowley" <> wrote in message
>>> > > > news:
>>> > > > Straight from the horse's mouth (King is not one of Brown's
>>> > > > stooges
>>of
>>> > > > course) .........
>>> > > >
>>> > > > King sounds warning over economy
>>> > > > (Filed: 10/05/2006)
>>> > > >
>>> >
>>
>>> > > >
>>> > > > House prices are overvalued
>>> > > >
>>> > > > I do wonder if these people live in the real world.
>>> > > > House prices are over valued, well maybe to you but to someone
>>> > > > else,
>>no.
>>> > >
>>> > > While I'm all for people doing their own research and making their
>>> > > own
>>> > > minds up I think I'd place more credence on the views of the
>>> > > governor
>>> > > of the Bank of England than the ramblings of an internet stalker
>>> > > like
>>> > > you Slimey.
>>> >
>>> > These are the same people who you swallow every line they spill out,
>>> > for
>>> > which you have been predicting a house price crash for goodness knows
>>how
>>> > long.
>>> > You and they have been consistently wrong and will continue to be as
>>they
>>> > miss the point.
>>> > Whether there is a crash or not has nothing to do what a house is
>>> > worth.
>>>
>>> Stop trying to pretend you know anything about it lamebrain.
>>
>>You're the one who has for, how long is it, been crying that there would
>>be
>>a crash.
>>It is you who swallows every report without the ability to think it
>>through,
>>not I.
>>You already got zero credibility in regard to predicting a crash.
>>
>>> You're just a fuckwit, a stallker, and a troll. Live with it and stop
>>> trying to get above yourself.
>>
>>Who is it that is incapable of debate, not me, it is you who is abusive.
>
> be fair...you know full well that is his only card...
> what else can a rabbit manage beside that and running.....
> rabbit wants company...rabbit want people to believe he's a big boy....
> don't be unkind to rabbit....take him as he is and stop expecting
> miracles...
> be kind to the mentally challenged rabbit...

Woo hoo Slimey - I think you're "in" there ! If you're lucky, he'll let you
sit on his lap and give you a "bounce". He might even take you out to the
outhouse and show you his "rabbits" ....

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

On Wed, 10 May 2006 21:58:20 +0100, "Chris X" <>

typed:
>
>"abelard" <> wrote in message
>news:
>> On Wed, 10 May 2006 18:22:21 +0100, "Chris X" <>
>>
>> typed:
>>>
>>>"Chris.S" <> wrote in message
>>>news:44621ed9$0$9267$
>>>>
>>>> "Chris X" <> wrote in message
>>>> news:
>>>>>
>>>>> "Chris.S" <> wrote in message
>>>>> news:446219dc$0$9230$
>>>>> >
>>>>> > <> wrote in message
>>>>> > news:
>>>>> >> Chris.S wrote:
>>>>> >> > A house is worth what someone will pay for it.
>>>>> >>
>>>>> >> No. A house is worth _what a bank will lend someone_ to pay for it.
>>>>> >
>>>>> > Wrong.
>>>>> > A house is worth what you are willing to pay for it, you then may or
>>>>> > may
>>>>> > not
>>>>> > need to go to a bank where they may or may not agree to give you the
>>>>> > money.
>>>>> > Whether a bank gives you money says nothing regarding the worth of
>>>>> > the
>>>>> > house
>>>>> > but more about your credit risk.
>>>>>
>>>>> Slimey, the point he's making is that fewer and fewer people are
>>>>> *earning*
>>>>> enough to be considered by the banks for a mortgage on a half-decent
>>>>> property.
>>>>
>>>> Exley,
>>>
>>>Who ? I might remind you to watch what you say here, Slimey.
>>>
>>>> in that case the market will adjust itself, it's called market forces
>>>> something alien to the BNP I know.
>>>
>>>LOL ! Slimey the arch-capitalist !
>>
>> what's the bollix n prick's 'policy' rabbit? price controls?
>
>Oh Christ - Fraudy's seeking allies .... "Apply Within" !

still running eh rabbit....

what's the bollix n prick's 'policy' rabbit? price controls?

--
web site at www.abelard.org - news comment service, logic, economics
energy, education, politics, etc 1,552,396 document calls in year past
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------
all that is necessary for [] walk quietly and carry
the triumph of evil is that [] a big stick.
good people do nothing [] trust actions not words
only when it's funny -- roger rabbit
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

On Wed, 10 May 2006 22:03:01 +0100, "Chris X" <>

typed:
>
>"abelard" <> wrote in message
>news:
>> On Wed, 10 May 2006 18:04:33 +0100, "Chris.S" <>
>>
>> typed:
>>>
>>>"Crowley" <> wrote in message
>>>news:
>>>>
>>>> Chris.S wrote:
>>>> .
>>>>
>>>> > "Crowley" <> wrote in message
>>>> > news:
>>>> > >
>>>> > > Chris.S wrote:
>>>> > > > "Crowley" <> wrote in message
>>>> > > > news:
>>>> > > > Straight from the horse's mouth (King is not one of Brown's
>>>> > > > stooges
>>>of
>>>> > > > course) .........
>>>> > > >
>>>> > > > King sounds warning over economy
>>>> > > > (Filed: 10/05/2006)
>>>> > > >
>>>> >
>>>
>>>> > > >
>>>> > > > House prices are overvalued
>>>> > > >
>>>> > > > I do wonder if these people live in the real world.
>>>> > > > House prices are over valued, well maybe to you but to someone
>>>> > > > else,
>>>no.
>>>> > >
>>>> > > While I'm all for people doing their own research and making their
>>>> > > own
>>>> > > minds up I think I'd place more credence on the views of the
>>>> > > governor
>>>> > > of the Bank of England than the ramblings of an internet stalker
>>>> > > like
>>>> > > you Slimey.
>>>> >
>>>> > These are the same people who you swallow every line they spill out,
>>>> > for
>>>> > which you have been predicting a house price crash for goodness knows
>>>how
>>>> > long.
>>>> > You and they have been consistently wrong and will continue to be as
>>>they
>>>> > miss the point.
>>>> > Whether there is a crash or not has nothing to do what a house is
>>>> > worth.
>>>>
>>>> Stop trying to pretend you know anything about it lamebrain.
>>>
>>>You're the one who has for, how long is it, been crying that there would
>>>be
>>>a crash.
>>>It is you who swallows every report without the ability to think it
>>>through,
>>>not I.
>>>You already got zero credibility in regard to predicting a crash.
>>>
>>>> You're just a fuckwit, a stallker, and a troll. Live with it and stop
>>>> trying to get above yourself.
>>>
>>>Who is it that is incapable of debate, not me, it is you who is abusive.
>>
>> be fair...you know full well that is his only card...
>> what else can a rabbit manage beside that and running.....
>> rabbit wants company...rabbit want people to believe he's a big boy....
>> don't be unkind to rabbit....take him as he is and stop expecting
>> miracles...
>> be kind to the mentally challenged rabbit...
>
>Woo hoo Slimey - I think you're "in" there ! If you're lucky, he'll let you
>sit on his lap and give you a "bounce". He might even take you out to the
>outhouse and show you his "rabbits" ....

and there was me trying to protect you.....
lot of gratitude i get for trying to help you rabbit...

--
web site at www.abelard.org - news comment service, logic, economics
energy, education, politics, etc 1,552,396 document calls in year past
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------
all that is necessary for [] walk quietly and carry
the triumph of evil is that [] a big stick.
good people do nothing [] trust actions not words
only when it's funny -- roger rabbit
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

On Wed, 10 May 2006 21:46:50 +0100, "Andy Pandy"
<>

typed:
>
>"abelard" <> wrote in message
>news:
>> >> >Yeah - about 22% less valuable, not 67%.
>> >>
>> >> you are confusing rpi with inflation...
>> >
>> >So let's see your method of measuring inflation.
>>
>> monetary expansion - gdp increase....
>> currently ~11% in the uk....
>
>Duh, that's not inflation. I'll stick with RPI.

that's your privilege
i'm sure the gov't will be delighted

--
web site at www.abelard.org - news comment service, logic, economics
energy, education, politics, etc 1,552,396 document calls in year past
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------
all that is necessary for [] walk quietly and carry
the triumph of evil is that [] a big stick.
good people do nothing [] trust actions not words
only when it's funny -- roger rabbit
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Chris X" <> wrote in message
news:
> "Chris.S" <> wrote in message
> news:44625313$0$9255$
> > "Chris X" <> wrote in message
> > news:
>
> >> >> >> >> > in that case the market will adjust itself, it's called
market
> >> >> >> >> > forces something alien to the BNP I know.
> >> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> >> LOL ! Slimey the arch-capitalist !
> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> > It's called the real world X.
> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> ROTFLMAO ! Is that the real world Slimey where you can't ever
hope
> >> >> >> to get a mortgage - even for a £30,000 terraced dump in Wigan -
due
> >> >> >> to your
> >> >> >> "condition" ? ;)
> >> >> >
> >> >> > £30,000 in Wigan, when you find one tell me.
> >> >> > I see you've been stalking again
> >> >>
> >> >> Ok, £25,000 then !
> >> >
> >> > Evidence?
> >>
> >> Wigan is a shithole. Next !
> >
> > Speaking of which WF17 0EB
>
> Posting postcodes doesn't change the fact that Wigan is a hole, Slimey. I
> bet you feel like a king when you check in for your "full services" at
> Wythenshawe !

Sounding a bit angry are we.
No, really, Wigan house prices are up their with the national average.
Now a shite place is WF17 0EB
rotfl

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Chris X" <> wrote in message
news:
>
> "abelard" <> wrote in message
> news:
> > On Wed, 10 May 2006 18:04:33 +0100, "Chris.S" <>
> >
> > typed:
> >>
> >>"Crowley" <> wrote in message
> >>news:
> >>>
> >>> Chris.S wrote:
> >>> .
> >>>
> >>> > "Crowley" <> wrote in message
> >>> > news:
> >>> > >
> >>> > > Chris.S wrote:
> >>> > > > "Crowley" <> wrote in message
> >>> > > > news:
> >>> > > > Straight from the horse's mouth (King is not one of Brown's
> >>> > > > stooges
> >>of
> >>> > > > course) .........
> >>> > > >
> >>> > > > King sounds warning over economy
> >>> > > > (Filed: 10/05/2006)
> >>> > > >
> >>> >
>
>>
xml&sSheet=/money/2006/05/10/ixcitytop.html
> >>> > > >
> >>> > > > House prices are overvalued
> >>> > > >
> >>> > > > I do wonder if these people live in the real world.
> >>> > > > House prices are over valued, well maybe to you but to someone
> >>> > > > else,
> >>no.
> >>> > >
> >>> > > While I'm all for people doing their own research and making their
> >>> > > own
> >>> > > minds up I think I'd place more credence on the views of the
> >>> > > governor
> >>> > > of the Bank of England than the ramblings of an internet stalker
> >>> > > like
> >>> > > you Slimey.
> >>> >
> >>> > These are the same people who you swallow every line they spill out,
> >>> > for
> >>> > which you have been predicting a house price crash for goodness
knows
> >>how
> >>> > long.
> >>> > You and they have been consistently wrong and will continue to be as
> >>they
> >>> > miss the point.
> >>> > Whether there is a crash or not has nothing to do what a house is
> >>> > worth.
> >>>
> >>> Stop trying to pretend you know anything about it lamebrain.
> >>
> >>You're the one who has for, how long is it, been crying that there would
> >>be
> >>a crash.
> >>It is you who swallows every report without the ability to think it
> >>through,
> >>not I.
> >>You already got zero credibility in regard to predicting a crash.
> >>
> >>> You're just a fuckwit, a stallker, and a troll. Live with it and stop
> >>> trying to get above yourself.
> >>
> >>Who is it that is incapable of debate, not me, it is you who is abusive.
> >
> > be fair...you know full well that is his only card...
> > what else can a rabbit manage beside that and running.....
> > rabbit wants company...rabbit want people to believe he's a big boy....
> > don't be unkind to rabbit....take him as he is and stop expecting
> > miracles...
> > be kind to the mentally challenged rabbit...
>
> Woo hoo Slimey - I think you're "in" there ! If you're lucky, he'll let
you
> sit on his lap and give you a "bounce". He might even take you out to the
> outhouse and show you his "rabbits" ....

X, finds his debating level.

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"abelard" <> wrote in message
news:
> On Wed, 10 May 2006 22:03:01 +0100, "Chris X" <>

>>>>> > > > Straight from the horse's mouth (King is not one of Brown's
>>>>> > > > stooges
>>>>of
>>>>> > > > course) .........
>>>>> > > >
>>>>> > > > King sounds warning over economy
>>>>> > > > (Filed: 10/05/2006)
>>>>> > > >
>>>>> >
>>>>
>>>>> > > >
>>>>> > > > House prices are overvalued
>>>>> > > >
>>>>> > > > I do wonder if these people live in the real world.
>>>>> > > > House prices are over valued, well maybe to you but to someone
>>>>> > > > else,
>>>>no.
>>>>> > >
>>>>> > > While I'm all for people doing their own research and making their
>>>>> > > own
>>>>> > > minds up I think I'd place more credence on the views of the
>>>>> > > governor
>>>>> > > of the Bank of England than the ramblings of an internet stalker
>>>>> > > like
>>>>> > > you Slimey.
>>>>> >
>>>>> > These are the same people who you swallow every line they spill out,
>>>>> > for
>>>>> > which you have been predicting a house price crash for goodness
>>>>> > knows
>>>>how
>>>>> > long.
>>>>> > You and they have been consistently wrong and will continue to be as
>>>>they
>>>>> > miss the point.
>>>>> > Whether there is a crash or not has nothing to do what a house is
>>>>> > worth.
>>>>>
>>>>> Stop trying to pretend you know anything about it lamebrain.
>>>>
>>>>You're the one who has for, how long is it, been crying that there would
>>>>be
>>>>a crash.
>>>>It is you who swallows every report without the ability to think it
>>>>through,
>>>>not I.
>>>>You already got zero credibility in regard to predicting a crash.
>>>>
>>>>> You're just a fuckwit, a stallker, and a troll. Live with it and stop
>>>>> trying to get above yourself.
>>>>
>>>>Who is it that is incapable of debate, not me, it is you who is abusive.
>>>
>>> be fair...you know full well that is his only card...
>>> what else can a rabbit manage beside that and running.....
>>> rabbit wants company...rabbit want people to believe he's a big boy....
>>> don't be unkind to rabbit....take him as he is and stop expecting
>>> miracles...
>>> be kind to the mentally challenged rabbit...
>>
>>Woo hoo Slimey - I think you're "in" there ! If you're lucky, he'll let
>>you
>>sit on his lap and give you a "bounce". He might even take you out to the
>>outhouse and show you his "rabbits" ....
>
> and there was me trying to protect you.....
> lot of gratitude i get for trying to help you rabbit...

Go on - show him your "puppies" while you're at it, too !

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Chris.S" <> wrote in message
news:44625866$0$9257$
>
> "Chris X" <> wrote in message
> news:
>> "Chris.S" <> wrote in message
>> news:44625313$0$9255$
>> > "Chris X" <> wrote in message
>> > news:
>>
>> >> >> >> >> > in that case the market will adjust itself, it's called
> market
>> >> >> >> >> > forces something alien to the BNP I know.
>> >> >> >> >>
>> >> >> >> >> LOL ! Slimey the arch-capitalist !
>> >> >> >> >
>> >> >> >> > It's called the real world X.
>> >> >> >>
>> >> >> >> ROTFLMAO ! Is that the real world Slimey where you can't ever
> hope
>> >> >> >> to get a mortgage - even for a £30,000 terraced dump in Wigan -
> due
>> >> >> >> to your
>> >> >> >> "condition" ? ;)
>> >> >> >
>> >> >> > £30,000 in Wigan, when you find one tell me.
>> >> >> > I see you've been stalking again
>> >> >>
>> >> >> Ok, £25,000 then !
>> >> >
>> >> > Evidence?
>> >>
>> >> Wigan is a shithole. Next !
>> >
>> > Speaking of which WF17 0EB
>>
>> Posting postcodes doesn't change the fact that Wigan is a hole, Slimey.
>> I
>> bet you feel like a king when you check in for your "full services" at
>> Wythenshawe !
>
> Sounding a bit angry are we.
> No, really, Wigan house prices are up their with the national average.

Going to buy one, Slimey ? (Snigger !)

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"abelard" <> wrote in message
news:
> >> >> >Yeah - about 22% less valuable, not 67%.
> >> >>
> >> >> you are confusing rpi with inflation...
> >> >
> >> >So let's see your method of measuring inflation.
> >>
> >> monetary expansion - gdp increase....
> >> currently ~11% in the uk....
> >
> >Duh, that's not inflation. I'll stick with RPI.
>
> that's your privilege
> i'm sure the gov't will be delighted

I've just realised you're the clueless idiot I killfiled a few months ago, but you've
since changed your email address. Back in you go.

--
Andy

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Chris.S" <> wrote in message
news:446258ee$0$9231$
>
> "Chris X" <> wrote in message
> news:
>>
>> "abelard" <> wrote in message
>> news:
>> > On Wed, 10 May 2006 18:04:33 +0100, "Chris.S" <>
>> >
>> > typed:
>> >>
>> >>"Crowley" <> wrote in message
>> >>news:
>> >>>
>> >>> Chris.S wrote:
>> >>> .
>> >>>
>> >>> > "Crowley" <> wrote in message
>> >>> > news:
>> >>> > >
>> >>> > > Chris.S wrote:
>> >>> > > > "Crowley" <> wrote in message
>> >>> > > > news:
>> >>> > > > Straight from the horse's mouth (King is not one of Brown's
>> >>> > > > stooges
>> >>of
>> >>> > > > course) .........
>> >>> > > >
>> >>> > > > King sounds warning over economy
>> >>> > > > (Filed: 10/05/2006)
>> >>> > > >
>> >>> >
>>
>>>
> xml&sSheet=/money/2006/05/10/ixcitytop.html
>> >>> > > >
>> >>> > > > House prices are overvalued
>> >>> > > >
>> >>> > > > I do wonder if these people live in the real world.
>> >>> > > > House prices are over valued, well maybe to you but to someone
>> >>> > > > else,
>> >>no.
>> >>> > >
>> >>> > > While I'm all for people doing their own research and making
>> >>> > > their
>> >>> > > own
>> >>> > > minds up I think I'd place more credence on the views of the
>> >>> > > governor
>> >>> > > of the Bank of England than the ramblings of an internet stalker
>> >>> > > like
>> >>> > > you Slimey.
>> >>> >
>> >>> > These are the same people who you swallow every line they spill
>> >>> > out,
>> >>> > for
>> >>> > which you have been predicting a house price crash for goodness
> knows
>> >>how
>> >>> > long.
>> >>> > You and they have been consistently wrong and will continue to be
>> >>> > as
>> >>they
>> >>> > miss the point.
>> >>> > Whether there is a crash or not has nothing to do what a house is
>> >>> > worth.
>> >>>
>> >>> Stop trying to pretend you know anything about it lamebrain.
>> >>
>> >>You're the one who has for, how long is it, been crying that there
>> >>would
>> >>be
>> >>a crash.
>> >>It is you who swallows every report without the ability to think it
>> >>through,
>> >>not I.
>> >>You already got zero credibility in regard to predicting a crash.
>> >>
>> >>> You're just a fuckwit, a stallker, and a troll. Live with it and stop
>> >>> trying to get above yourself.
>> >>
>> >>Who is it that is incapable of debate, not me, it is you who is
>> >>abusive.
>> >
>> > be fair...you know full well that is his only card...
>> > what else can a rabbit manage beside that and running.....
>> > rabbit wants company...rabbit want people to believe he's a big boy....
>> > don't be unkind to rabbit....take him as he is and stop expecting
>> > miracles...
>> > be kind to the mentally challenged rabbit...
>>
>> Woo hoo Slimey - I think you're "in" there ! If you're lucky, he'll let
> you
>> sit on his lap and give you a "bounce". He might even take you out to the
>> outhouse and show you his "rabbits" ....
>
> X, finds his debating level.

As opposed to Slimey Sheldon, who's idea of "debate" is to post what he
thinks is his opponents postcode. Poor SLimey - sad, deranged net-stalker
that he is.

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

abelard wrote:
> and there was me trying to protect you.....
> lot of gratitude i get for trying to help you rabbit...

Still prattling on about rabbits I see fraudy. You sad, sad creature.

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

Andy Pandy wrote:
> "abelard" <> wrote in message
> > that's your privilege
> > i'm sure the gov't will be delighted
>
> I've just realised you're the clueless idiot I killfiled a few months ago, but you've
> since changed your email address. Back in you go.

LMAO. Poor old abelfraud, exposed again.

There's no more hiding places for you fraudy, your "reputation"
precedes you. LOL

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Andy Pandy" <> wrote in message
news:
>
> "Chris.S" <> wrote in message
> news:44622ab4$0$9247$
> > > The whole *point* is what it's worth, FFS. The point that houses are
"an
> > asset" or
> > > "needed" is irrelvant
> >
> > No it isn't and you are missing the point.
> > I can't explain why idiots buy shares in markets that have no assets,
but
> > people buy houses to live in.
> > The decision making behind them is different for different reasons.
> > Typically when you buy a house you do this to live in, also in the
knowledge
> > that it is an investment.
> > People will pay what they think it is worth to them, to live in it.
> >
> > When someone buys a share in dot coms they do so to speculate, they
don't
> > buy it on the basis of worth do they? but whether they think its share
price
> > will go up.
>
> So what? The point is that *anything* can be overvalued
>, whether there is a real
> asset behind it or not.
> If something triples in price over 10 years, then it could
> half in price over the next 10 years. Look up what happened in Tokyo
since the late
> 80's if you don't believe the same sort of thing can happen to property
prices as
> shares.

If you are comparing shares to houses your not going to make a point as one
is purely for speculation and the other is used as a place to live.
shares will have a market price, it's price usually reflects the performance
of the business.
Houses have many variables that effect price, one of which is how much a
particular buyer wants it

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Miss L. Toe" <> wrote in message
news:44623d77$0$12167$
>
> "tim (back at home)" <> wrote in message
> news:
>>

>> IMHO the only reason for buying rather than renting
>> at the moment is to get the certainty of not having to
>> move so buying makes no sense in the current market
>> if you think that you will have to move in a 2-3 year
>> time-frame anyway.
>
> Buying makes no sense if you are only going to live there for a short time
> frame.

The classic way to get to the house that you want is to
trade up every 2-3 years.

It's suprising the number of houses which are bought
by buyers that live in them for less than 2 years
(including both my first and third purchase).

I think that the average between moves is seven, but
that must be increased by the people (like my dad) who
own the same house for over 50 years.

It use to be the done thing, now I would suggest that
it is not sensible, but there would still seem to be people
doing it.

tim

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Chris X" <> wrote in message
news:
>
> "Chris.S" <> wrote in message
> news:44625866$0$9257$
> >
> > "Chris X" <> wrote in message
> > news:
> >> "Chris.S" <> wrote in message
> >> news:44625313$0$9255$
> >> > "Chris X" <> wrote in message
> >> > news:
> >>
> >> >> >> >> >> > in that case the market will adjust itself, it's called
> > market
> >> >> >> >> >> > forces something alien to the BNP I know.
> >> >> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> >> >> LOL ! Slimey the arch-capitalist !
> >> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> >> > It's called the real world X.
> >> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> >> ROTFLMAO ! Is that the real world Slimey where you can't ever
> > hope
> >> >> >> >> to get a mortgage - even for a £30,000 terraced dump in
Wigan -
> > due
> >> >> >> >> to your
> >> >> >> >> "condition" ? ;)
> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> > £30,000 in Wigan, when you find one tell me.
> >> >> >> > I see you've been stalking again
> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> Ok, £25,000 then !
> >> >> >
> >> >> > Evidence?
> >> >>
> >> >> Wigan is a shithole. Next !
> >> >
> >> > Speaking of which WF17 0EB
> >>
> >> Posting postcodes doesn't change the fact that Wigan is a hole, Slimey.
> >> I
> >> bet you feel like a king when you check in for your "full services" at
> >> Wythenshawe !
> >
> > Sounding a bit angry are we.
> > No, really, Wigan house prices are up their with the national average.
>
> Going to buy one, Slimey ? (Snigger !)

Where in WF17 0EB, I don't think so, I hear there are undesirables around
rotfl

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Chris X" <> wrote in message
news:
>
> "Chris.S" <> wrote in message
> news:446258ee$0$9231$
> >
> > "Chris X" <> wrote in message
> > news:
> >>
> >> "abelard" <> wrote in message
> >> news:
> >> > On Wed, 10 May 2006 18:04:33 +0100, "Chris.S"
<>
> >> >
> >> > typed:
> >> >>
> >> >>"Crowley" <> wrote in message
> >> >>news:
> >> >>>
> >> >>> Chris.S wrote:
> >> >>> .
> >> >>>
> >> >>> > "Crowley" <> wrote in message
> >> >>> > news:
> >> >>> > >
> >> >>> > > Chris.S wrote:
> >> >>> > > > "Crowley" <> wrote in message
> >> >>> > > > news:
> >> >>> > > > Straight from the horse's mouth (King is not one of Brown's
> >> >>> > > > stooges
> >> >>of
> >> >>> > > > course) .........
> >> >>> > > >
> >> >>> > > > King sounds warning over economy
> >> >>> > > > (Filed: 10/05/2006)
> >> >>> > > >
> >> >>> >
> >>
>
>>>
..
> > xml&sSheet=/money/2006/05/10/ixcitytop.html
> >> >>> > > >
> >> >>> > > > House prices are overvalued
> >> >>> > > >
> >> >>> > > > I do wonder if these people live in the real world.
> >> >>> > > > House prices are over valued, well maybe to you but to
someone
> >> >>> > > > else,
> >> >>no.
> >> >>> > >
> >> >>> > > While I'm all for people doing their own research and making
> >> >>> > > their
> >> >>> > > own
> >> >>> > > minds up I think I'd place more credence on the views of the
> >> >>> > > governor
> >> >>> > > of the Bank of England than the ramblings of an internet
stalker
> >> >>> > > like
> >> >>> > > you Slimey.
> >> >>> >
> >> >>> > These are the same people who you swallow every line they spill
> >> >>> > out,
> >> >>> > for
> >> >>> > which you have been predicting a house price crash for goodness
> > knows
> >> >>how
> >> >>> > long.
> >> >>> > You and they have been consistently wrong and will continue to be
> >> >>> > as
> >> >>they
> >> >>> > miss the point.
> >> >>> > Whether there is a crash or not has nothing to do what a house is
> >> >>> > worth.
> >> >>>
> >> >>> Stop trying to pretend you know anything about it lamebrain.
> >> >>
> >> >>You're the one who has for, how long is it, been crying that there
> >> >>would
> >> >>be
> >> >>a crash.
> >> >>It is you who swallows every report without the ability to think it
> >> >>through,
> >> >>not I.
> >> >>You already got zero credibility in regard to predicting a crash.
> >> >>
> >> >>> You're just a fuckwit, a stallker, and a troll. Live with it and
stop
> >> >>> trying to get above yourself.
> >> >>
> >> >>Who is it that is incapable of debate, not me, it is you who is
> >> >>abusive.
> >> >
> >> > be fair...you know full well that is his only card...
> >> > what else can a rabbit manage beside that and running.....
> >> > rabbit wants company...rabbit want people to believe he's a big
boy....
> >> > don't be unkind to rabbit....take him as he is and stop expecting
> >> > miracles...
> >> > be kind to the mentally challenged rabbit...
> >>
> >> Woo hoo Slimey - I think you're "in" there ! If you're lucky, he'll
let
> > you
> >> sit on his lap and give you a "bounce". He might even take you out to
the
> >> outhouse and show you his "rabbits" ....
> >
> > X, finds his debating level.
>
> As opposed to Slimey Sheldon, who's idea of "debate" is to post what he
> thinks is his opponents postcode.

Whose postcode eh?
snigger

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Chris.S" <> wrote in message
news:44625d86$0$9247$
>
> "Chris X" <> wrote in message
> news:
>>
>> "Chris.S" <> wrote in message
>> news:44625866$0$9257$
>> >
>> > "Chris X" <> wrote in message
>> > news:
>> >> "Chris.S" <> wrote in message
>> >> news:44625313$0$9255$
>> >> > "Chris X" <> wrote in message
>> >> > news:
>> >>
>> >> >> >> >> >> > in that case the market will adjust itself, it's called
>> > market
>> >> >> >> >> >> > forces something alien to the BNP I know.
>> >> >> >> >> >>
>> >> >> >> >> >> LOL ! Slimey the arch-capitalist !
>> >> >> >> >> >
>> >> >> >> >> > It's called the real world X.
>> >> >> >> >>
>> >> >> >> >> ROTFLMAO ! Is that the real world Slimey where you can't
>> >> >> >> >> ever
>> > hope
>> >> >> >> >> to get a mortgage - even for a £30,000 terraced dump in
> Wigan -
>> > due
>> >> >> >> >> to your
>> >> >> >> >> "condition" ? ;)
>> >> >> >> >
>> >> >> >> > £30,000 in Wigan, when you find one tell me.
>> >> >> >> > I see you've been stalking again
>> >> >> >>
>> >> >> >> Ok, £25,000 then !
>> >> >> >
>> >> >> > Evidence?
>> >> >>
>> >> >> Wigan is a shithole. Next !
>> >> >
>> >> > Speaking of which WF17 0EB
>> >>
>> >> Posting postcodes doesn't change the fact that Wigan is a hole,
>> >> Slimey.
>> >> I
>> >> bet you feel like a king when you check in for your "full services" at
>> >> Wythenshawe !
>> >
>> > Sounding a bit angry are we.
>> > No, really, Wigan house prices are up their with the national average.
>>
>> Going to buy one, Slimey ? (Snigger !)
>
> Where in WF17 0EB, I don't think so, I hear there are undesirables around

Posting what you think is my postcode in order to try and intimidate. This
must be Slimey's idea of "debate". ROTFLMAO !

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Chris X" <> wrote in message
news:
>
> "Chris.S" <> wrote in message
> news:44625d86$0$9247$
> >
> > "Chris X" <> wrote in message
> > news:
> >>
> >> "Chris.S" <> wrote in message
> >> news:44625866$0$9257$
> >> >
> >> > "Chris X" <> wrote in message
> >> > news:
> >> >> "Chris.S" <> wrote in message
> >> >> news:44625313$0$9255$
> >> >> > "Chris X" <> wrote in message
> >> >> > news:
> >> >>
> >> >> >> >> >> >> > in that case the market will adjust itself, it's
called
> >> > market
> >> >> >> >> >> >> > forces something alien to the BNP I know.
> >> >> >> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> >> >> >> LOL ! Slimey the arch-capitalist !
> >> >> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> >> >> > It's called the real world X.
> >> >> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> >> >> ROTFLMAO ! Is that the real world Slimey where you can't
> >> >> >> >> >> ever
> >> > hope
> >> >> >> >> >> to get a mortgage - even for a £30,000 terraced dump in
> > Wigan -
> >> > due
> >> >> >> >> >> to your
> >> >> >> >> >> "condition" ? ;)
> >> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> >> > £30,000 in Wigan, when you find one tell me.
> >> >> >> >> > I see you've been stalking again
> >> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> >> Ok, £25,000 then !
> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> > Evidence?
> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> Wigan is a shithole. Next !
> >> >> >
> >> >> > Speaking of which WF17 0EB
> >> >>
> >> >> Posting postcodes doesn't change the fact that Wigan is a hole,
> >> >> Slimey.
> >> >> I
> >> >> bet you feel like a king when you check in for your "full services"
at
> >> >> Wythenshawe !
> >> >
> >> > Sounding a bit angry are we.
> >> > No, really, Wigan house prices are up their with the national
average.
> >>
> >> Going to buy one, Slimey ? (Snigger !)
> >
> > Where in WF17 0EB, I don't think so, I hear there are undesirables
around
>
> Posting what you think is my postcode in order to try and intimidate.
This
> must be Slimey's idea of "debate". ROTFLMAO !

I never said it was your postcode, it is just a postcode of a rather crap
area.
:-)

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Chris.S" <> wrote in message
news:44625df3$0$9232$

>> > X, finds his debating level.
>>
>> As opposed to Slimey Sheldon, who's idea of "debate" is to post what he
>> thinks is his opponents postcode.
>
> Whose postcode eh?

I wonder what Plus.com will think of your repeated breaches of their
Acceptable Use Policy ? Especially after your last warning ...

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Chris X" <> wrote in message
news:
>
> "Chris.S" <> wrote in message
> news:44625df3$0$9232$
>
> >> > X, finds his debating level.
> >>
> >> As opposed to Slimey Sheldon, who's idea of "debate" is to post what he
> >> thinks is his opponents postcode.
> >
> > Whose postcode eh?
>
> I wonder what Plus.com will think of your repeated breaches of their
> Acceptable Use Policy ? Especially after your last warning ...

Posting a postcode isn't against AUP, but feel free to restrict my free
speech, Chris X.

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Chris.S" <> wrote in message
news:44625f02$0$9272$
> "Chris X" <> wrote in message
> news:

>> >> > Sounding a bit angry are we.
>> >> > No, really, Wigan house prices are up their with the national
> average.
>> >>
>> >> Going to buy one, Slimey ? (Snigger !)
>> >
>> > Where in WF17 0EB, I don't think so, I hear there are undesirables
> around
>>
>> Posting what you think is my postcode in order to try and intimidate.
>> This must be Slimey's idea of "debate". ROTFLMAO !
>
> I never said it was your postcode, it is just a postcode of a rather crap
> area.

Nobody's under any illusions about what you're doing, Slimey.

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Chris.S" <> wrote in message
news:44626018$0$9230$
> "Chris X" <> wrote in message
> news:

>> >> > X, finds his debating level.
>> >>
>> >> As opposed to Slimey Sheldon, who's idea of "debate" is to post what
>> >> he
>> >> thinks is his opponents postcode.
>> >
>> > Whose postcode eh?
>>
>> I wonder what Plus.com will think of your repeated breaches of their
>> Acceptable Use Policy ? Especially after your last warning ...
>
> Posting a postcode isn't against AUP,

I think you'll find Plus.com will have other ideas about that, especially
since it was part of the personal detials you posted last time when you got
your warning :)

> but feel free to restrict my free speech, Chris X.

You don't have "free speech" to stalk or harass other users, Slimey.

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Chris X" <> wrote in message
news:
> "Chris.S" <> wrote in message
> news:44625f02$0$9272$
> > "Chris X" <> wrote in message
> > news:
>
> >> >> > Sounding a bit angry are we.
> >> >> > No, really, Wigan house prices are up their with the national
> > average.
> >> >>
> >> >> Going to buy one, Slimey ? (Snigger !)
> >> >
> >> > Where in WF17 0EB, I don't think so, I hear there are undesirables
> > around
> >>
> >> Posting what you think is my postcode in order to try and intimidate.
> >> This must be Slimey's idea of "debate". ROTFLMAO !
> >
> > I never said it was your postcode, it is just a postcode of a rather
crap
> > area.
>
> Nobody's under any illusions about what you're doing, Slimey.

I'm not sure what you are on about, "you" said Wigan was shite, I just
posted a post code of an area that is far worse than Wigan.
If the kitchen is too hot you should stay out X.

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Chris X" <> wrote in message
news:
> "Chris.S" <> wrote in message
> news:44626018$0$9230$
> > "Chris X" <> wrote in message
> > news:
>
> >> >> > X, finds his debating level.
> >> >>
> >> >> As opposed to Slimey Sheldon, who's idea of "debate" is to post what
> >> >> he
> >> >> thinks is his opponents postcode.
> >> >
> >> > Whose postcode eh?
> >>
> >> I wonder what Plus.com will think of your repeated breaches of their
> >> Acceptable Use Policy ? Especially after your last warning ...
> >
> > Posting a postcode isn't against AUP,
>
> I think you'll find Plus.com will have other ideas about that, especially
> since it was part of the personal detials you posted last time when you
got
> your warning :)

I posted a post code of a undesirable area, I never said it was yours.

> > but feel free to restrict my free speech, Chris X.
>
> You don't have "free speech" to stalk or harass other users, Slimey.

Who am I harassing X?

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Chris.S" <> wrote in message
news:4462629f$0$9229$
>
> "Chris X" <> wrote in message
> news:
>> "Chris.S" <> wrote in message
>> news:44625f02$0$9272$
>> > "Chris X" <> wrote in message
>> > news:
>>
>> >> >> > Sounding a bit angry are we.
>> >> >> > No, really, Wigan house prices are up their with the national
>> > average.
>> >> >>
>> >> >> Going to buy one, Slimey ? (Snigger !)
>> >> >
>> >> > Where in WF17 0EB, I don't think so, I hear there are undesirables
>> > around
>> >>
>> >> Posting what you think is my postcode in order to try and intimidate.
>> >> This must be Slimey's idea of "debate". ROTFLMAO !
>> >
>> > I never said it was your postcode, it is just a postcode of a rather
>> > crap area.
>>
>> Nobody's under any illusions about what you're doing, Slimey.
>
> I'm not sure what you are on about, "you" said Wigan was shite, I just
> posted a post code of an area that is far worse than Wigan.
> If the kitchen is too hot you should stay out X.

Strange then how that postcode just happens to be one which Plus.com warned
you about posting a few weeks ago, eh ?

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

On 10 May 2006 14:25:40 -0700, "Crowley" <>

typed:
>
>abelard wrote:
>> and there was me trying to protect you.....
>> lot of gratitude i get for trying to help you rabbit...
>
>Still prattling on about rabbits I see fraudy. You sad, sad creature.

you're just envious i didn't mention you ticks....

--
web site at www.abelard.org - news comment service, logic, economics
energy, education, politics, etc 1,552,396 document calls in year past
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------
all that is necessary for [] walk quietly and carry
the triumph of evil is that [] a big stick.
good people do nothing [] trust actions not words
only when it's funny -- roger rabbit
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Chris.S" <> wrote in message
news:44626319$0$9229$
>
> "Chris X" <> wrote in message
> news:
>> "Chris.S" <> wrote in message
>> news:44626018$0$9230$
>> > "Chris X" <> wrote in message
>> > news:
>>
>> >> >> > X, finds his debating level.
>> >> >>
>> >> >> As opposed to Slimey Sheldon, who's idea of "debate" is to post
>> >> >> what
>> >> >> he
>> >> >> thinks is his opponents postcode.
>> >> >
>> >> > Whose postcode eh?
>> >>
>> >> I wonder what Plus.com will think of your repeated breaches of their
>> >> Acceptable Use Policy ? Especially after your last warning ...
>> >
>> > Posting a postcode isn't against AUP,
>>
>> I think you'll find Plus.com will have other ideas about that, especially
>> since it was part of the personal detials you posted last time when you
>> got your warning :)
>
> I posted a post code of a undesirable area, I never said it was yours.

I think you'll find Plus.com keep records of your "antecedents", Slimey.

>> > but feel free to restrict my free speech, Chris X.
>>
>> You don't have "free speech" to stalk or harass other users, Slimey.
>
> Who am I harassing X?

:)

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

On Wed, 10 May 2006 22:24:15 +0100, "Andy Pandy"
<>

typed:
>
>"abelard" <> wrote in message
>news:
>> >> >> >Yeah - about 22% less valuable, not 67%.
>> >> >>
>> >> >> you are confusing rpi with inflation...
>> >> >
>> >> >So let's see your method of measuring inflation.
>> >>
>> >> monetary expansion - gdp increase....
>> >> currently ~11% in the uk....
>> >
>> >Duh, that's not inflation. I'll stick with RPI.
>>
>> that's your privilege
>> i'm sure the gov't will be delighted
>
>I've just realised you're the clueless idiot I killfiled a few months ago, but you've
>since changed your email address. Back in you go.

ah diddums....
you gonna run and hide behind the curtain.....

--
web site at www.abelard.org - news comment service, logic, economics
energy, education, politics, etc 1,552,396 document calls in year past
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------
all that is necessary for [] walk quietly and carry
the triumph of evil is that [] a big stick.
good people do nothing [] trust actions not words
only when it's funny -- roger rabbit
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Chris X" <> wrote in message
news:
>
> "Chris.S" <> wrote in message
> news:4462629f$0$9229$
> >
> > "Chris X" <> wrote in message
> > news:
> >> "Chris.S" <> wrote in message
> >> news:44625f02$0$9272$
> >> > "Chris X" <> wrote in message
> >> > news:
> >>
> >> >> >> > Sounding a bit angry are we.
> >> >> >> > No, really, Wigan house prices are up their with the national
> >> > average.
> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> Going to buy one, Slimey ? (Snigger !)
> >> >> >
> >> >> > Where in WF17 0EB, I don't think so, I hear there are undesirables
> >> > around
> >> >>
> >> >> Posting what you think is my postcode in order to try and
intimidate.
> >> >> This must be Slimey's idea of "debate". ROTFLMAO !
> >> >
> >> > I never said it was your postcode, it is just a postcode of a rather
> >> > crap area.
> >>
> >> Nobody's under any illusions about what you're doing, Slimey.
> >
> > I'm not sure what you are on about, "you" said Wigan was shite, I just
> > posted a post code of an area that is far worse than Wigan.
> > If the kitchen is too hot you should stay out X.
>
> Strange then how that postcode just happens to be one which Plus.com
warned
> you about posting a few weeks ago, eh ?

Plus.com never mentioned anything about a postcode

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

>
> Regulated housing market ??????????
>

It's the land that's regulated. The magic words 'Planning Permission'
works wonders for land values.

> > but, with increasing inward migration required to keep the
> > economy growing, the square now needs to be circled and whoever is in
> > power expect that to happen very soon.
> >
>
> You think they properly plan these things ?????
>

No, but the economy and nothing else usualy decides an election. Which
is why no Government has ever really stopped immigration, there's no
votes in it. So, eventually, they always do what's necessary.

It would also allow interest rates to fall if house prices fell
something the rest of the economy is now really crying out for.

If the Bank of England is saying house price inflation is the problem
then increasing supply is the easy option, also creates even more
growth and Brown needs plenty of that in a hurry.

> > Our attitude to buying a house should be no different to that when
> > buying a car or white goods. It's not an investment decision but a
> > consumer decision.
>
> Agreed, except it shouldnt need replacing during your lifetime.

Why not, in Australia (Queensland) they buy plots and then order a
house that's delivered on a lorry. When they're bored with the house
they order a new one. They even do part exchange on the old one. It
really is just like buying a car.

Mind you, if you saw what lurks in their gardens and can find its way
into the nooks and crannies you would want to trade in your house
fairly regularly.

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

On 10 May 2006 14:30:04 -0700, "Crowley" <>

typed:
>
>Andy Pandy wrote:
>> "abelard" <> wrote in message
>> > that's your privilege
>> > i'm sure the gov't will be delighted
>>
>> I've just realised you're the clueless idiot I killfiled a few months ago, but you've
>> since changed your email address. Back in you go.
>
>LMAO. Poor old abelfraud, exposed again.
>
>There's no more hiding places for you fraudy, your "reputation"
>precedes you. LOL

sorry too late creepy crawley..'andypandy' (what an appropriate name!) has
run away and hidden....

you're so dumb you don't even know where to hide creepy....

still you got hakky to do your running for you mister tick....

--
web site at www.abelard.org - news comment service, logic, economics
energy, education, politics, etc 1,552,396 document calls in year past
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------
all that is necessary for [] walk quietly and carry
the triumph of evil is that [] a big stick.
good people do nothing [] trust actions not words
only when it's funny -- roger rabbit
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

abelard wrote:
> On Wed, 10 May 2006 22:24:15 +0100, "Andy Pandy"
> >
> >I've just realised you're the clueless idiot I killfiled a few months ago, but you've
> >since changed your email address. Back in you go.
>
> ah diddums....
> you gonna run and hide behind the curtain.....

Too late Mr Fluffytail, he's killfiled you for being a "clueless
idiot".

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Chris X" <> wrote in message
news:
>
> "Chris.S" <> wrote in message
> news:44626319$0$9229$
> >
> > "Chris X" <> wrote in message
> > news:
> >> "Chris.S" <> wrote in message
> >> news:44626018$0$9230$
> >> > "Chris X" <> wrote in message
> >> > news:
> >>
> >> >> >> > X, finds his debating level.
> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> As opposed to Slimey Sheldon, who's idea of "debate" is to post
> >> >> >> what
> >> >> >> he
> >> >> >> thinks is his opponents postcode.
> >> >> >
> >> >> > Whose postcode eh?
> >> >>
> >> >> I wonder what Plus.com will think of your repeated breaches of their
> >> >> Acceptable Use Policy ? Especially after your last warning ...
> >> >
> >> > Posting a postcode isn't against AUP,
> >>
> >> I think you'll find Plus.com will have other ideas about that,
especially
> >> since it was part of the personal detials you posted last time when you
> >> got your warning :)
> >
> > I posted a post code of a undesirable area, I never said it was yours.
>
> I think you'll find Plus.com keep records of your "antecedents", Slimey.

You're on weak ground X, they will do nothing as any connection in these
post, and it is these they will look at, has been made by yourself.
ROTFL

> >> > but feel free to restrict my free speech, Chris X.
> >>
> >> You don't have "free speech" to stalk or harass other users, Slimey.
> >
> > Who am I harassing X?
>
> :)

Nothing to say?

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

On Wed, 10 May 2006 21:04:52 +0100, "Tumbleweed"
<>

typed:
>
>"Miss L. Toe" <> wrote in message
>news:4462431e$0$15725$
>
>>>
>>> isnt the gold price mostly speculation? Other than in electronics, its
>>> fundamentally useless.
>>
>> There is also a very big jewellery market, which will grow enormously
>> (IMO)
>> as India gets more prosperous.

>Hmm, thats a good point. Though it would be interesting to know what
>proportion of gold goes into jewelry. I'd guess its insignificant but I dont
>know.

it's unsafe....the banks are reckoned to hold 30,000 tonnes
it also becomes viable to exploit lower grade ores as the 'price' rises..

last time there was a bubble in silver 'they' got out the old spoons and
coins to melt them down...and there was a major market for silver in
photography...
you remember 'photography'....with 'films'?

gold has returned ~nothing in a century....
until the last few weeks....

you wanna buy gold???

regards....

--
web site at www.abelard.org - news comment service, logic, economics
energy, education, politics, etc 1,552,396 document calls in year past
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------
all that is necessary for [] walk quietly and carry
the triumph of evil is that [] a big stick.
good people do nothing [] trust actions not words
only when it's funny -- roger rabbit
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

On 10 May 2006 15:14:05 -0700, "Crowley" <>

typed:
>
>abelard wrote:
>> On Wed, 10 May 2006 22:24:15 +0100, "Andy Pandy"
>> >
>> >I've just realised you're the clueless idiot I killfiled a few months ago, but you've
>> >since changed your email address. Back in you go.
>>
>> ah diddums....
>> you gonna run and hide behind the curtain.....
>
>Too late Mr Fluffytail, he's killfiled you for being a "clueless
>idiot".

all the better....i can mock the loser and he can't even answer back....
brilliant strategy that eh creepy....why don't you try it!!

--
web site at www.abelard.org - news comment service, logic, economics
energy, education, politics, etc 1,552,396 document calls in year past
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------
all that is necessary for [] walk quietly and carry
the triumph of evil is that [] a big stick.
good people do nothing [] trust actions not words
only when it's funny -- roger rabbit
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Crowley" <> wrote in message
news:
>
> Tumbleweed wrote:
>> "Crowley" <> wrote in message
>> news:
>> >
>> > Tumbleweed wrote:
>> >
>> >> "Crowley" <> wrote in message
>> >> >
>> >> > There's more to it than simple supply and demand as evidenced by the
>> >> > historically large inventory of houses on estate agent's books and
>> >> > the
>> >> > shortage of buyers for them particularly at these prices.

I might be wrong but wasnt it you statinga few weeks back that the very low
amount of houses for sale was a sign of an impending crash? Or was it one of
your cohort? Either way, _any_ statistic at all seems to be fuel for your
mantra.

>> >> what makes you say that? there was a report in the FT (iirc) on monday
>> >> saying that there had been a large increase in the amount of houses
>> >> sold
>> >> in
>> >> the first 3 months of this year.
>> >
>> > A 37% increase in sales from the same quarter last year when sales were
>> > at rock bottom. So a 37% increase on 'rock bottom'. Impressive !
>> >
>>
>> So, you'd agree that even at "rock bottom", there was no crash. Now sales
>> are increasing (apparently). So, even more unlikely there will be a
>> crash.
>> How long will you continue before you agree that you are, wait for it,
>> _wrong_? Would you ever contemplate the prospect that you _might_ be
>> wrong?
>>
>> BTW, in case you want to ask if I ever might contemplate that, well my
>> position is that you are wrong in your certainty about knowing what will
>> happen, and as we can see, so far I am 100% correct, eg your predictions
>> are
>> and have been completely and utterly crap and the only way you'll be
>> correct
>> is via the broken watch principle :-)
>
> I find it astounding that you seem to believe that because we haven't
> had a crash yet we are not going to get one. Has the world ended
> already ? LOL

I find it astonishing that you and your cohort continually predict a crash,
one doesn't occur, and you seemingly regard that as support for your views!

As I have probably said before, your thinking process seems to go 'house
prices rising=bigger crash to come', "house prices stagnant=prices just
about to crash", "house prices fall by some tiny amount=crash has started".
I dont think you'd know what to say if a crash actually occurred, you'd be
too amazed. And probably still sitting there in your own house which you
hadn't sold, losing a bundle in the process.

>
> I'm sure there were plenty who thought like you back in 89/90, and even
> plenty of tech stock 'investors' in 2000 who believed the party would
> never end.
>
Indeed there were but that doesn't make someone who consistently spouts the
same mantra time and time again any better than the broken watch.


>> >>You seem to 'wish' there to be a bubble and
>> >> a pop but evidence at least shows there isnt a pop or any sign of one.
>> >
>> > I haven't said the bubble's 'popped' *yet*. But it will. What is there
>> > to stop it ? Where's the money going to come from to maintain prices
>> > massively out of kilter with basic fundamentals and which even the
>> > governor of the Bank of England in his understated way describes as
>> > "overvalued" ?
>>
>> The money doesnt have to come from anywhere to maintain prices at their
>> current levels. It would have to come from somewhere to fuel a rise.
>
> Of course money "has to come from somewhere" to maintain current price
> levels. What do you think people are going to buy houses with ? scotch
> mist ? When credit is tightened would be buyers will find they can't
> borrow enough to pay these current prices. What do you imagine might
> happen then ?

That is two seperate things. You start with the situation now, and then you
add another one which is a prediction not a fact. (clue, it starts with
'when')

So, lets stick with now. The money goes around. People die and leave their
houses to their kids who sell them and buy cheaper ones. people retire,
people get divorced, and move into smaller houses, whilst others move up
into the ones they vacate. You dont need any more money if prices remain
stable. If that wasnt the case and you needed more money to keep prices
stable then eventually you'd need an infinite amount of money. I dont recall
that happening in the periods when house prices were pretty stable, do you?

As for what happens 'when' well thats another of your (so far very poor)
predictions. bear in mind I am not saying that prices will rise. I am merely
saying that your predictions are very very very poor.

>> As to basic fundamentals, seems to me that for a long time, house prices
>> were equal to a certain multiplier of the average wage. Now, they are
>> equal
>> to a different multiplier. There is no law of economics let alone nature
>> that says that the former is the 'right' multiplier and hence no
>> certainty
>> about a crash (which would be needed to get back to the previous level).
>> Maybe for the forseeable future, the current multiplier will be the
>> 'right'
>> one and maybe thats where your determination there should and will be a
>> crash comes from. Maybe thats where the Gov is wrong as well?
>
> There's always plenty who think "it's different this time". But it
> never is. After all, why should it be ? What's different ?
>
"it never is"? perhaps thats what the slide-rule manufacturers said as well.
Or the buggy whip makers? Things do actually change. Once very few people
owned houses. Things changed and more did.So, thats different. Once very few
people owned land, now many more do. So, thats different. There are more
people now, with more money, but the same amount of land there ever was. So,
thats different. People live in smaller groups now, rather than large
families, thereby needing more houses. So, thats different. People are
willing to spend more of their wages on houses than they previously were.
So, thats different. Banks are willing to lend more than they previously
were. So, thats different. Couples are divorcing more, thus needing more
houses. So, thats different.

is that enough differences? Or do you imagine that there is some benchmark
of house prices to salaries that was set at some date 1933? 1952? 1963?1972?
1989? 2001?, that is destined to stay the same forever?

--
Tumbleweed

email replies not necessary but to contact use;
tumbleweednews at hotmail dot com

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

abelard wrote:
> On 10 May 2006 15:14:05 -0700, "Crowley" <>
> >> On Wed, 10 May 2006 22:24:15 +0100, "Andy Pandy"
> >> >
> >> >I've just realised you're the clueless idiot I killfiled a few months ago, but you've
> >> >since changed your email address. Back in you go.
> >>
> >> ah diddums....
> >> you gonna run and hide behind the curtain.....
> >
> >Too late Mr Fluffytail, he's killfiled you for being a "clueless
> >idiot".
>
> all the better....i can mock the loser and he can't even answer back....
> brilliant strategy that eh creepy....why don't you try it!!

Yeah brilliant that fraudy. You're a real evil genius you aintcha ?

Mwaahh hah hah ....mwaahhh hah hah hah hah ..........

Goodnight shitferbrains.

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

On 10 May 2006 15:28:35 -0700, "Crowley" <>

typed:
>
>abelard wrote:
>> On 10 May 2006 15:14:05 -0700, "Crowley" <>
>> >> On Wed, 10 May 2006 22:24:15 +0100, "Andy Pandy"
>> >> >
>> >> >I've just realised you're the clueless idiot I killfiled a few months ago, but you've
>> >> >since changed your email address. Back in you go.
>> >>
>> >> ah diddums....
>> >> you gonna run and hide behind the curtain.....
>> >
>> >Too late Mr Fluffytail, he's killfiled you for being a "clueless
>> >idiot".
>>
>> all the better....i can mock the loser and he can't even answer back....
>> brilliant strategy that eh creepy....why don't you try it!!
>
>Yeah brilliant that fraudy. You're a real evil genius you aintcha ?
>
>Mwaahh hah hah ....mwaahhh hah hah hah hah ..........
>
>Goodnight shitferbrains.

your latest name change won't fool me creeeeeeepy....
however, you don't have shitferbrains...shit is useful for fertiliser....
what you have in your head has no clear or apparent use....

--
web site at www.abelard.org - news comment service, logic, economics
energy, education, politics, etc 1,552,396 document calls in year past
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------
all that is necessary for [] walk quietly and carry
the triumph of evil is that [] a big stick.
good people do nothing [] trust actions not words
only when it's funny -- roger rabbit
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

On Wed, 10 May 2006 23:27:44 +0100, "Tumbleweed"
<>

typed:
>
>"Crowley" <> wrote in message
>news:
>>
>> Tumbleweed wrote:
>>> "Crowley" <> wrote in message
>>> news:
>>> >
>>> > Tumbleweed wrote:
>>> >
>>> >> "Crowley" <> wrote in message
>>> >> >
>>> >> > There's more to it than simple supply and demand as evidenced by the
>>> >> > historically large inventory of houses on estate agent's books and
>>> >> > the
>>> >> > shortage of buyers for them particularly at these prices.
>
>I might be wrong but wasnt it you statinga few weeks back that the very low
>amount of houses for sale was a sign of an impending crash? Or was it one of
>your cohort? Either way, _any_ statistic at all seems to be fuel for your
>mantra.
>
>>> >> what makes you say that? there was a report in the FT (iirc) on monday
>>> >> saying that there had been a large increase in the amount of houses
>>> >> sold
>>> >> in
>>> >> the first 3 months of this year.
>>> >
>>> > A 37% increase in sales from the same quarter last year when sales were
>>> > at rock bottom. So a 37% increase on 'rock bottom'. Impressive !
>>> >
>>>
>>> So, you'd agree that even at "rock bottom", there was no crash. Now sales
>>> are increasing (apparently). So, even more unlikely there will be a
>>> crash.
>>> How long will you continue before you agree that you are, wait for it,
>>> _wrong_? Would you ever contemplate the prospect that you _might_ be
>>> wrong?
>>>
>>> BTW, in case you want to ask if I ever might contemplate that, well my
>>> position is that you are wrong in your certainty about knowing what will
>>> happen, and as we can see, so far I am 100% correct, eg your predictions
>>> are
>>> and have been completely and utterly crap and the only way you'll be
>>> correct
>>> is via the broken watch principle :-)
>>
>> I find it astounding that you seem to believe that because we haven't
>> had a crash yet we are not going to get one. Has the world ended
>> already ? LOL
>
>I find it astonishing that you and your cohort continually predict a crash,
>one doesn't occur, and you seemingly regard that as support for your views!
>
>As I have probably said before, your thinking process seems to go 'house
>prices rising=bigger crash to come', "house prices stagnant=prices just
>about to crash", "house prices fall by some tiny amount=crash has started".
>I dont think you'd know what to say if a crash actually occurred, you'd be
>too amazed. And probably still sitting there in your own house which you
>hadn't sold, losing a bundle in the process.
>
>>
>> I'm sure there were plenty who thought like you back in 89/90, and even
>> plenty of tech stock 'investors' in 2000 who believed the party would
>> never end.
>>
>Indeed there were but that doesn't make someone who consistently spouts the
>same mantra time and time again any better than the broken watch.
>
>
>>> >>You seem to 'wish' there to be a bubble and
>>> >> a pop but evidence at least shows there isnt a pop or any sign of one.
>>> >
>>> > I haven't said the bubble's 'popped' *yet*. But it will. What is there
>>> > to stop it ? Where's the money going to come from to maintain prices
>>> > massively out of kilter with basic fundamentals and which even the
>>> > governor of the Bank of England in his understated way describes as
>>> > "overvalued" ?
>>>
>>> The money doesnt have to come from anywhere to maintain prices at their
>>> current levels. It would have to come from somewhere to fuel a rise.
>>
>> Of course money "has to come from somewhere" to maintain current price
>> levels. What do you think people are going to buy houses with ? scotch
>> mist ? When credit is tightened would be buyers will find they can't
>> borrow enough to pay these current prices. What do you imagine might
>> happen then ?
>
>That is two seperate things. You start with the situation now, and then you
>add another one which is a prediction not a fact. (clue, it starts with
>'when')
>
>So, lets stick with now. The money goes around. People die and leave their
>houses to their kids who sell them and buy cheaper ones. people retire,
>people get divorced, and move into smaller houses, whilst others move up
>into the ones they vacate. You dont need any more money if prices remain
>stable. If that wasnt the case and you needed more money to keep prices
>stable then eventually you'd need an infinite amount of money. I dont recall
>that happening in the periods when house prices were pretty stable, do you?
>
>As for what happens 'when' well thats another of your (so far very poor)
>predictions. bear in mind I am not saying that prices will rise. I am merely
>saying that your predictions are very very very poor.
>
>>> As to basic fundamentals, seems to me that for a long time, house prices
>>> were equal to a certain multiplier of the average wage. Now, they are
>>> equal
>>> to a different multiplier. There is no law of economics let alone nature
>>> that says that the former is the 'right' multiplier and hence no
>>> certainty
>>> about a crash (which would be needed to get back to the previous level).
>>> Maybe for the forseeable future, the current multiplier will be the
>>> 'right'
>>> one and maybe thats where your determination there should and will be a
>>> crash comes from. Maybe thats where the Gov is wrong as well?
>>
>> There's always plenty who think "it's different this time". But it
>> never is. After all, why should it be ? What's different ?
>>
>"it never is"? perhaps thats what the slide-rule manufacturers said as well.
>Or the buggy whip makers? Things do actually change. Once very few people
>owned houses. Things changed and more did.So, thats different. Once very few
>people owned land, now many more do. So, thats different. There are more
>people now, with more money, but the same amount of land there ever was. So,
>thats different. People live in smaller groups now, rather than large
>families, thereby needing more houses. So, thats different. People are
>willing to spend more of their wages on houses than they previously were.
>So, thats different. Banks are willing to lend more than they previously
>were. So, thats different. Couples are divorcing more, thus needing more
>houses. So, thats different.
>
>is that enough differences? Or do you imagine that there is some benchmark
>of house prices to salaries that was set at some date 1933? 1952? 1963?1972?
>1989? 2001?, that is destined to stay the same forever?

this may amuse you


regards....

--
web site at www.abelard.org - news comment service, logic, economics
energy, education, politics, etc 1,552,396 document calls in year past
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------
all that is necessary for [] walk quietly and carry
the triumph of evil is that [] a big stick.
good people do nothing [] trust actions not words
only when it's funny -- roger rabbit
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"abelard" <> wrote in message
news:
>>
>>is that enough differences? Or do you imagine that there is some benchmark
>>of house prices to salaries that was set at some date 1933? 1952?
>>1963?1972?
>>1989? 2001?, that is destined to stay the same forever?
>
> this may amuse you
>

I'd have said that was renting by another name :-)

--
Tumbleweed

email replies not necessary but to contact use;
tumbleweednews at hotmail dot com

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"tim (back at home)" <> wrote in message
news:
> > Buying makes no sense if you are only going to live there for a short time
> > frame.
>
> The classic way to get to the house that you want is to
> trade up every 2-3 years.
>
> It's suprising the number of houses which are bought
> by buyers that live in them for less than 2 years
> (including both my first and third purchase).
>
> I think that the average between moves is seven, but
> that must be increased by the people (like my dad) who
> own the same house for over 50 years.
>
> It use to be the done thing, now I would suggest that
> it is not sensible, but there would still seem to be people
> doing it.

It was never sensible financially, except for those periods during which house price
inflation was unusually high (and you'd have needed your crystal ball to predict
these periods).

Historically house price inflation has averaged about the same as mortgage rates, so
by trading up every few years you are simply giving your mortgage company all the
increase in equity. Add in the higher costs of owning the bigger house, and you are
losing. Add in the buying/selling costs, which will be very significant of you
buy/sell every 2-3 years, and you are losing big time.

Usually the quickest way to get the house you want is to pay as little as possible in
mortgage for as long as possible and save.

--
Andy

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Chris.S" <> wrote in message
news:44625c44$0$9230$
> > So what? The point is that *anything* can be overvalued
> >, whether there is a real
> > asset behind it or not.
> > If something triples in price over 10 years, then it could
> > half in price over the next 10 years. Look up what happened in Tokyo
> since the late
> > 80's if you don't believe the same sort of thing can happen to property
> prices as
> > shares.
>
> If you are comparing shares to houses your not going to make a point as one
> is purely for speculation and the other is used as a place to live.
> shares will have a market price, it's price usually reflects the performance
> of the business.
> Houses have many variables that effect price, one of which is how much a
> particular buyer wants it

If people only ever considered the question "is living in this house worth the price
I'm paying" when buying a house, then I'd agree.

But they often don't, they often think "this house will go up in price, so it doesn't
matter whether it's worth the price I'm paying, because I'm not losing the money, I'm
investing it". Which is pretty similar to the reason they buy shares.

--
Andy

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

Tumbleweed wrote:
..

> "Crowley" <> wrote in message
> news:
> >
> > Tumbleweed wrote:
> >> "Crowley" <> wrote in message
> >> news:
> >> >
> >> > Tumbleweed wrote:
> >> >
> >> >> "Crowley" <> wrote in message
> >> >> >
> >> >> > There's more to it than simple supply and demand as evidenced by the
> >> >> > historically large inventory of houses on estate agent's books and
> >> >> > the
> >> >> > shortage of buyers for them particularly at these prices.
>
> I might be wrong but wasnt it you statinga few weeks back that the very low
> amount of houses for sale was a sign of an impending crash? Or was it one of
> your cohort? Either way, _any_ statistic at all seems to be fuel for your
> mantra.
>
> >> >> what makes you say that? there was a report in the FT (iirc) on monday
> >> >> saying that there had been a large increase in the amount of houses
> >> >> sold
> >> >> in
> >> >> the first 3 months of this year.
> >> >
> >> > A 37% increase in sales from the same quarter last year when sales were
> >> > at rock bottom. So a 37% increase on 'rock bottom'. Impressive !
> >> >
> >>
> >> So, you'd agree that even at "rock bottom", there was no crash. Now sales
> >> are increasing (apparently). So, even more unlikely there will be a
> >> crash.
> >> How long will you continue before you agree that you are, wait for it,
> >> _wrong_? Would you ever contemplate the prospect that you _might_ be
> >> wrong?
> >>
> >> BTW, in case you want to ask if I ever might contemplate that, well my
> >> position is that you are wrong in your certainty about knowing what will
> >> happen, and as we can see, so far I am 100% correct, eg your predictions
> >> are
> >> and have been completely and utterly crap and the only way you'll be
> >> correct
> >> is via the broken watch principle :-)
> >
> > I find it astounding that you seem to believe that because we haven't
> > had a crash yet we are not going to get one. Has the world ended
> > already ? LOL
>
> I find it astonishing that you and your cohort continually predict a crash,
> one doesn't occur, and you seemingly regard that as support for your views!
>
> As I have probably said before, your thinking process seems to go 'house
> prices rising=bigger crash to come', "house prices stagnant=prices just
> about to crash", "house prices fall by some tiny amount=crash has started".
> I dont think you'd know what to say if a crash actually occurred, you'd be
> too amazed. And probably still sitting there in your own house which you
> hadn't sold, losing a bundle in the process.
>
> >
> > I'm sure there were plenty who thought like you back in 89/90, and even
> > plenty of tech stock 'investors' in 2000 who believed the party would
> > never end.
> >
> Indeed there were but that doesn't make someone who consistently spouts the
> same mantra time and time again any better than the broken watch.
>
>
> >> >>You seem to 'wish' there to be a bubble and
> >> >> a pop but evidence at least shows there isnt a pop or any sign of one.
> >> >
> >> > I haven't said the bubble's 'popped' *yet*. But it will. What is there
> >> > to stop it ? Where's the money going to come from to maintain prices
> >> > massively out of kilter with basic fundamentals and which even the
> >> > governor of the Bank of England in his understated way describes as
> >> > "overvalued" ?
> >>
> >> The money doesnt have to come from anywhere to maintain prices at their
> >> current levels. It would have to come from somewhere to fuel a rise.
> >
> > Of course money "has to come from somewhere" to maintain current price
> > levels. What do you think people are going to buy houses with ? scotch
> > mist ? When credit is tightened would be buyers will find they can't
> > borrow enough to pay these current prices. What do you imagine might
> > happen then ?
>
> That is two seperate things. You start with the situation now, and then you
> add another one which is a prediction not a fact. (clue, it starts with
> 'when')
>
> So, lets stick with now. The money goes around. People die and leave their
> houses to their kids who sell them and buy cheaper ones. people retire,
> people get divorced, and move into smaller houses, whilst others move up
> into the ones they vacate. You dont need any more money if prices remain
> stable. If that wasnt the case and you needed more money to keep prices
> stable then eventually you'd need an infinite amount of money. I dont recall
> that happening in the periods when house prices were pretty stable, do you?
>
> As for what happens 'when' well thats another of your (so far very poor)
> predictions. bear in mind I am not saying that prices will rise. I am merely
> saying that your predictions are very very very poor.
>
> >> As to basic fundamentals, seems to me that for a long time, house prices
> >> were equal to a certain multiplier of the average wage. Now, they are
> >> equal
> >> to a different multiplier. There is no law of economics let alone nature
> >> that says that the former is the 'right' multiplier and hence no
> >> certainty
> >> about a crash (which would be needed to get back to the previous level).
> >> Maybe for the forseeable future, the current multiplier will be the
> >> 'right'
> >> one and maybe thats where your determination there should and will be a
> >> crash comes from. Maybe thats where the Gov is wrong as well?
> >
> > There's always plenty who think "it's different this time". But it
> > never is. After all, why should it be ? What's different ?
> >
> "it never is"? perhaps thats what the slide-rule manufacturers said as well.
> Or the buggy whip makers? Things do actually change. Once very few people
> owned houses. Things changed and more did.So, thats different. Once very few
> people owned land, now many more do. So, thats different. There are more
> people now, with more money, but the same amount of land there ever was. So,
> thats different. People live in smaller groups now, rather than large
> families, thereby needing more houses. So, thats different. People are
> willing to spend more of their wages on houses than they previously were.
> So, thats different. Banks are willing to lend more than they previously
> were. So, thats different. Couples are divorcing more, thus needing more
> houses. So, thats different.
>
> is that enough differences? Or do you imagine that there is some benchmark
> of house prices to salaries that was set at some date 1933? 1952? 1963?1972?
> 1989? 2001?, that is destined to stay the same forever?
>
> --
> Tumbleweed
>
> email replies not necessary but to contact use;
> tumbleweednews at hotmail dot com

Remove all the spin, speculation, misrepresentation, and irrelevency
from your posts and your basic argument comes down to : 'house prices
haven't crashed yet therefore they never will'.

Now it doesn't take a genius to see the flaws in that, does it ?

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Crowley" <> wrote in message
news:

>
> Remove all the spin, speculation, misrepresentation, and irrelevency
> from your posts and your basic argument comes down to : 'house prices
> haven't crashed yet therefore they never will'.
>
> Now it doesn't take a genius to see the flaws in that, does it ?
>

Try snipping next time, please, must have been several hundred lines and
then 4 of yours?

You asked what was different, I told you. You chose to ignore that and make
something up, about my argument re house prices. I dont believe I have made
an argument that house prices wont crash, I dont know whether they will or
not.

One day house prices will crash. That may be in 3 months, 3 years, 30 years
or 300.
But they will also remain stationary, slide, rise, zoom up, etc within the
same timescales and neither you nor your proponents know _when_ that will
be, which is the trick to prediction!

So my argument is simply that your predictive skills are as good as a
stopped watch. You continually post that they _will_ crash within a short
time (by January 2007) and are continually shown be wrong.

--
Tumbleweed

email replies not necessary but to contact use;
tumbleweednews at hotmail dot com

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Chris.S" <> wrote in message
news:446264d3$0$9235$
>
> "Chris X" <> wrote in message
> news:
>>
>> "Chris.S" <> wrote in message
>> news:4462629f$0$9229$
>> >
>> > "Chris X" <> wrote in message
>> > news:
>> >> "Chris.S" <> wrote in message
>> >> news:44625f02$0$9272$
>> >> > "Chris X" <> wrote in message
>> >> > news:
>> >>
>> >> >> >> > Sounding a bit angry are we.
>> >> >> >> > No, really, Wigan house prices are up their with the national
>> >> > average.
>> >> >> >>
>> >> >> >> Going to buy one, Slimey ? (Snigger !)
>> >> >> >
>> >> >> > Where in WF17 0EB, I don't think so, I hear there are
>> >> >> > undesirables
>> >> > around
>> >> >>
>> >> >> Posting what you think is my postcode in order to try and
> intimidate.
>> >> >> This must be Slimey's idea of "debate". ROTFLMAO !
>> >> >
>> >> > I never said it was your postcode, it is just a postcode of a rather
>> >> > crap area.
>> >>
>> >> Nobody's under any illusions about what you're doing, Slimey.
>> >
>> > I'm not sure what you are on about, "you" said Wigan was shite, I just
>> > posted a post code of an area that is far worse than Wigan.
>> > If the kitchen is too hot you should stay out X.
>>
>> Strange then how that postcode just happens to be one which Plus.com
> warned
>> you about posting a few weeks ago, eh ?
>
> Plus.com never mentioned anything about a postcode

Poor Slimey, I can hear his wheezing from here ....

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Chris.S" <> wrote in message
news:44626614$0$9258$
>
> "Chris X" <> wrote in message
> news:
>>
>> "Chris.S" <> wrote in message
>> news:44626319$0$9229$
>> >
>> > "Chris X" <> wrote in message
>> > news:
>> >> "Chris.S" <> wrote in message
>> >> news:44626018$0$9230$
>> >> > "Chris X" <> wrote in message
>> >> > news:
>> >>
>> >> >> >> > X, finds his debating level.
>> >> >> >>
>> >> >> >> As opposed to Slimey Sheldon, who's idea of "debate" is to post
>> >> >> >> what
>> >> >> >> he
>> >> >> >> thinks is his opponents postcode.
>> >> >> >
>> >> >> > Whose postcode eh?
>> >> >>
>> >> >> I wonder what Plus.com will think of your repeated breaches of
>> >> >> their
>> >> >> Acceptable Use Policy ? Especially after your last warning ...
>> >> >
>> >> > Posting a postcode isn't against AUP,
>> >>
>> >> I think you'll find Plus.com will have other ideas about that,
> especially
>> >> since it was part of the personal detials you posted last time when
>> >> you
>> >> got your warning :)
>> >
>> > I posted a post code of a undesirable area, I never said it was yours.
>>
>> I think you'll find Plus.com keep records of your "antecedents", Slimey.
>
> You're on weak ground X, they will do nothing as any connection in these
> post, and it is these they will look at, has been made by yourself.

Think again, Slimey.

>> >> > but feel free to restrict my free speech, Chris X.
>> >>
>> >> You don't have "free speech" to stalk or harass other users, Slimey.
>> >
>> > Who am I harassing X?
>>
>> :)
>
> Nothing to say?

Nothing needed, SLimey.

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Chris X" <> wrote in message
news:
>
> "Chris.S" <> wrote in message
> news:446264d3$0$9235$
> >
> > "Chris X" <> wrote in message
> > news:
> >>
> >> "Chris.S" <> wrote in message
> >> news:4462629f$0$9229$
> >> >
> >> > "Chris X" <> wrote in message
> >> > news:
> >> >> "Chris.S" <> wrote in message
> >> >> news:44625f02$0$9272$
> >> >> > "Chris X" <> wrote in message
> >> >> > news:
> >> >>
> >> >> >> >> > Sounding a bit angry are we.
> >> >> >> >> > No, really, Wigan house prices are up their with the
national
> >> >> > average.
> >> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> >> Going to buy one, Slimey ? (Snigger !)
> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> > Where in WF17 0EB, I don't think so, I hear there are
> >> >> >> > undesirables
> >> >> > around
> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> Posting what you think is my postcode in order to try and
> > intimidate.
> >> >> >> This must be Slimey's idea of "debate". ROTFLMAO !
> >> >> >
> >> >> > I never said it was your postcode, it is just a postcode of a
rather
> >> >> > crap area.
> >> >>
> >> >> Nobody's under any illusions about what you're doing, Slimey.
> >> >
> >> > I'm not sure what you are on about, "you" said Wigan was shite, I
just
> >> > posted a post code of an area that is far worse than Wigan.
> >> > If the kitchen is too hot you should stay out X.
> >>
> >> Strange then how that postcode just happens to be one which Plus.com
> > warned
> >> you about posting a few weeks ago, eh ?
> >
> > Plus.com never mentioned anything about a postcode
>
> Poor Slimey, I can hear his wheezing from here ....

No way for a cllr to talk
snigger

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Chris X" <> wrote in message
news:
>
> "Chris.S" <> wrote in message
> news:44626614$0$9258$
> >
> > "Chris X" <> wrote in message
> > news:
> >>
> >> "Chris.S" <> wrote in message
> >> news:44626319$0$9229$
> >> >
> >> > "Chris X" <> wrote in message
> >> > news:
> >> >> "Chris.S" <> wrote in message
> >> >> news:44626018$0$9230$
> >> >> > "Chris X" <> wrote in message
> >> >> > news:
> >> >>
> >> >> >> >> > X, finds his debating level.
> >> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> >> As opposed to Slimey Sheldon, who's idea of "debate" is to
post
> >> >> >> >> what
> >> >> >> >> he
> >> >> >> >> thinks is his opponents postcode.
> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> > Whose postcode eh?
> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> I wonder what Plus.com will think of your repeated breaches of
> >> >> >> their
> >> >> >> Acceptable Use Policy ? Especially after your last warning ...
> >> >> >
> >> >> > Posting a postcode isn't against AUP,
> >> >>
> >> >> I think you'll find Plus.com will have other ideas about that,
> > especially
> >> >> since it was part of the personal detials you posted last time when
> >> >> you
> >> >> got your warning :)
> >> >
> >> > I posted a post code of a undesirable area, I never said it was
yours.
> >>
> >> I think you'll find Plus.com keep records of your "antecedents",
Slimey.
> >
> > You're on weak ground X, they will do nothing as any connection in these
> > post, and it is these they will look at, has been made by yourself.
>
> Think again, Slimey.

Look again X

> >> >> > but feel free to restrict my free speech, Chris X.
> >> >>
> >> >> You don't have "free speech" to stalk or harass other users, Slimey.
> >> >
> >> > Who am I harassing X?
> >>
> >> :)
> >
> > Nothing to say?
>
> Nothing needed, SLimey.

Lost for words, parrot?
pretty poly
rotfl

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"abelard" <> wrote in message
news:
> On Wed, 10 May 2006 23:27:44 +0100, "Tumbleweed"
> <>
>
> typed:
> >
> >"Crowley" <> wrote in message
> >news:
> >>
> >> Tumbleweed wrote:
> >>> "Crowley" <> wrote in message
> >>> news:
> >>> >
> >>> > Tumbleweed wrote:
> >>> >
> >>> >> "Crowley" <> wrote in message
> >>> >> >
> >>> >> > There's more to it than simple supply and demand as evidenced by
the
> >>> >> > historically large inventory of houses on estate agent's books
and
> >>> >> > the
> >>> >> > shortage of buyers for them particularly at these prices.
> >
> >I might be wrong but wasnt it you statinga few weeks back that the very
low
> >amount of houses for sale was a sign of an impending crash? Or was it one
of
> >your cohort? Either way, _any_ statistic at all seems to be fuel for your
> >mantra.
> >
> >>> >> what makes you say that? there was a report in the FT (iirc) on
monday
> >>> >> saying that there had been a large increase in the amount of houses
> >>> >> sold
> >>> >> in
> >>> >> the first 3 months of this year.
> >>> >
> >>> > A 37% increase in sales from the same quarter last year when sales
were
> >>> > at rock bottom. So a 37% increase on 'rock bottom'. Impressive !
> >>> >
> >>>
> >>> So, you'd agree that even at "rock bottom", there was no crash. Now
sales
> >>> are increasing (apparently). So, even more unlikely there will be a
> >>> crash.
> >>> How long will you continue before you agree that you are, wait for it,
> >>> _wrong_? Would you ever contemplate the prospect that you _might_ be
> >>> wrong?
> >>>
> >>> BTW, in case you want to ask if I ever might contemplate that, well my
> >>> position is that you are wrong in your certainty about knowing what
will
> >>> happen, and as we can see, so far I am 100% correct, eg your
predictions
> >>> are
> >>> and have been completely and utterly crap and the only way you'll be
> >>> correct
> >>> is via the broken watch principle :-)
> >>
> >> I find it astounding that you seem to believe that because we haven't
> >> had a crash yet we are not going to get one. Has the world ended
> >> already ? LOL
> >
> >I find it astonishing that you and your cohort continually predict a
crash,
> >one doesn't occur, and you seemingly regard that as support for your
views!
> >
> >As I have probably said before, your thinking process seems to go 'house
> >prices rising=bigger crash to come', "house prices stagnant=prices just
> >about to crash", "house prices fall by some tiny amount=crash has
started".
> >I dont think you'd know what to say if a crash actually occurred, you'd
be
> >too amazed. And probably still sitting there in your own house which you
> >hadn't sold, losing a bundle in the process.
> >
> >>
> >> I'm sure there were plenty who thought like you back in 89/90, and even
> >> plenty of tech stock 'investors' in 2000 who believed the party would
> >> never end.
> >>
> >Indeed there were but that doesn't make someone who consistently spouts
the
> >same mantra time and time again any better than the broken watch.
> >
> >
> >>> >>You seem to 'wish' there to be a bubble and
> >>> >> a pop but evidence at least shows there isnt a pop or any sign of
one.
> >>> >
> >>> > I haven't said the bubble's 'popped' *yet*. But it will. What is
there
> >>> > to stop it ? Where's the money going to come from to maintain prices
> >>> > massively out of kilter with basic fundamentals and which even the
> >>> > governor of the Bank of England in his understated way describes as
> >>> > "overvalued" ?
> >>>
> >>> The money doesnt have to come from anywhere to maintain prices at
their
> >>> current levels. It would have to come from somewhere to fuel a rise.
> >>
> >> Of course money "has to come from somewhere" to maintain current price
> >> levels. What do you think people are going to buy houses with ? scotch
> >> mist ? When credit is tightened would be buyers will find they can't
> >> borrow enough to pay these current prices. What do you imagine might
> >> happen then ?
> >
> >That is two seperate things. You start with the situation now, and then
you
> >add another one which is a prediction not a fact. (clue, it starts with
> >'when')
> >
> >So, lets stick with now. The money goes around. People die and leave
their
> >houses to their kids who sell them and buy cheaper ones. people retire,
> >people get divorced, and move into smaller houses, whilst others move up
> >into the ones they vacate. You dont need any more money if prices remain
> >stable. If that wasnt the case and you needed more money to keep prices
> >stable then eventually you'd need an infinite amount of money. I dont
recall
> >that happening in the periods when house prices were pretty stable, do
you?
> >
> >As for what happens 'when' well thats another of your (so far very poor)
> >predictions. bear in mind I am not saying that prices will rise. I am
merely
> >saying that your predictions are very very very poor.
> >
> >>> As to basic fundamentals, seems to me that for a long time, house
prices
> >>> were equal to a certain multiplier of the average wage. Now, they are
> >>> equal
> >>> to a different multiplier. There is no law of economics let alone
nature
> >>> that says that the former is the 'right' multiplier and hence no
> >>> certainty
> >>> about a crash (which would be needed to get back to the previous
level).
> >>> Maybe for the forseeable future, the current multiplier will be the
> >>> 'right'
> >>> one and maybe thats where your determination there should and will be
a
> >>> crash comes from. Maybe thats where the Gov is wrong as well?
> >>
> >> There's always plenty who think "it's different this time". But it
> >> never is. After all, why should it be ? What's different ?
> >>
> >"it never is"? perhaps thats what the slide-rule manufacturers said as
well.
> >Or the buggy whip makers? Things do actually change. Once very few people
> >owned houses. Things changed and more did.So, thats different. Once very
few
> >people owned land, now many more do. So, thats different. There are more
> >people now, with more money, but the same amount of land there ever was.
So,
> >thats different. People live in smaller groups now, rather than large
> >families, thereby needing more houses. So, thats different. People are
> >willing to spend more of their wages on houses than they previously were.
> >So, thats different. Banks are willing to lend more than they previously
> >were. So, thats different. Couples are divorcing more, thus needing more
> >houses. So, thats different.
> >
> >is that enough differences? Or do you imagine that there is some
benchmark
> >of house prices to salaries that was set at some date 1933? 1952?
1963?1972?
> >1989? 2001?, that is destined to stay the same forever?
>
> this may amuse you
>

>

But all american houses are made of wood and don't last 50 years :-)

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

In uk.finance abelard <> wrote:
> On 10 May 2006 09:49:31 -0700, "Crowley" <>

>>This house price bubble has been fed by the massive availability in
>>recent years of cheap easy credit much of it borrowed by western banks
>>from eastern banks at low rates of interest and then lent to borrowers
>>over here at higher rates of interest.

> so, you're claiming the loans are made in zlotys perhaps

Nope, the swaps markets are efficient enough that the loans can be made
in the home currency.

>>This
>>global liquidity is beginning to dry up.

> evidence creepy?

The fact that bondholders pretty much the world over are raising long
term interest rates.

>> Credit tightening is on the
>>way. Would be buyers won't be able to raise the credit to pay these
>>inflated prices and the bubble will burst.

> why would your alleged 'bubble' 'burst' creepy if people couldn't raise
> loans to pay 'inflated' prices?

How much do you think most people could pay if they bought for cash?

> you are a joy and amusement to watch....like an infant trying to impress
> adults by using long words he doesn't understand....

OK, let's see you pick on someone your own size...

> how has the carry trade 'poisoned' the international markets creepy?

By flooding them with liquidity. Essentially we've been protected from
inflation for a decade and a half by the deflations experienced by
Japan and China. The liquidity used by them to fight deflation was
recycled here through the carry trade and derivatives markets. We were
protected from the inflationary results of this through global arbitrage
of labour and goods.

Check out any of Stephen Roach's articles in the last decade to get the
supporting stats.

FoFP

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

In uk.finance Tumbleweed <> wrote:

> I find it astonishing that you and your cohort continually predict a crash,
> one doesn't occur, and you seemingly regard that as support for your views!

I think we can agree that the housing cycle turned in the UK in 2005 and
it hasn't led to a housing crash.

The global credit cycle is now beginning to turn. Now we get to see if
I was right about it being a credit bubble rather than a housing bubble.
If I am right then this will turn out to look more like the US in the
1930's than the UK in the 1990's.

Fannie Mae found two more accounting problems this week and gold crossed
700 Dollars per ounce. The Japanese are talking about coming off 0%
rates very soon. All my markers for the end have been hit and I'm just
about to make my first prediction on timing:

Soon.

FoFP

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

In uk.finance Tumbleweed <> wrote:

[50 year mortgages...]

> I'd have said that was renting by another name :-)

The house is yours when you die...

FoFP

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

In uk.finance Miss L. Toe <> wrote:

>> All inflation is bad for an economy

> Tell that to the Japanese.

In fact the Japanese Finance Ministry is now worried that inflation of
Golf Club membership fees signals a new bubble.

FoFP

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"M Holmes" <> wrote in message
news:e3v5ov$k61$
>
> Fannie Mae found two more accounting problems this week and gold crossed
> 700 Dollars per ounce. The Japanese are talking about coming off 0%
> rates very soon. All my markers for the end have been hit and I'm just
> about to make my first prediction on timing:
>
> Soon.
>

Would you care to make a prediction for 'soon'? Because at the moment you
are saying that you will make a prediction at an unspecified time re an
unspecified event (definition of 'crash'?) that will occur at an undefined
time.

Out of interest, when you make this prediction, what actions do you propose
people take?

--
Tumbleweed

email replies not necessary but to contact use;
tumbleweednews at hotmail dot com

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"M Holmes" <> wrote in message
news:e3v5sa$k61$
> In uk.finance Tumbleweed <> wrote:
>
> [50 year mortgages...]
>
>> I'd have said that was renting by another name :-)
>
> The house is yours when you die...


Probably not even then, and even if it was the termites will have eaten it
:-)

--
Tumbleweed

email replies not necessary but to contact use;
tumbleweednews at hotmail dot com

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

Miss L. Toe wrote:
> What do you call normal levels ???

8-10%.

> If interets rates drop people will be able to afford even bigger mortgages
> and house prices will go up.

And if pigs could fly I'd be scraping pig crap off my car in the
morning. Global rates are rising: there ain't a hope in hell of a rate
cut in the UK.

In fact, mortgage rates have been increasing even while the BoE hold
rates steady, because the cost of borrowing 'cheap money' abroad is
increasing. The cheap money era is over.

> If interest rates rise significantly (most likely to try to protect a
> falling pound) then that will cause problems.

If you call a complete collapse of the housing market just a 'problem',
yes. Personally I suspect the result will be more of a catastrophe
which will take a generation to recover from.

> > Anyone buying a house at today's prices is betting on high wage
> > inflation when British jobs are being outsourced en masse and other
> > jobs are being replaced by cheap immigrants. To me, that's... brave.
> No, anyone buying a house at todays prices is betting prices wont go down
> any time soon.

Merely proving that you have no clue as to what drives house prices.

> > Anyway, doesn't matter to me. There's no way I'm enslaving myself to
> > the bank for the rest of my life just to buy a bloody two-bed
> > ex-council terrace in a street full of chavs.
> Doesn't matter to me either as my mortgage is paid off :-)

So you don't care that when rates return to normal levels your house
will be worth vastly less? Why not sell now and buy something bigger
and better after the market crashes?

Mark

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

Andy Pandy wrote:
> It was never a "no-brainer".

Are you sure they didn't mean 'it was a plan followed by people of no
brain' :) ?

> There were of course times when it would have paid off,
> but never a certainty.

Indeed. I suspect that most people who made money in the process did so
by luck, not judgement. Three years is far too long to try to
second-guess the Bank of England.

Others will end up stuck with expensive flats they bought in 2005 that
they have to sell for a fraction of the price they paid in 2008. Or
inadvertantly becoming student landlords in the hope that the flat will
one day be worth what they paid for it...

Mark

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

Miss L. Toe wrote:
> well, you sort of have to assume that both house prices and renatl will
> increase with inflation - in the long term.

Again, where is wage inflation going to come from to justify even
current house prices when most jobs can be done just as well in China
or India on a fraction of the salary?

Mark

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

Chris.S wrote:
> A house is worth what you are willing to pay for it, you then may or may not
> need to go to a bank where they may or may not agree to give you the money.

And, uh, exactly what fraction of people are buying houses for cash,
particularly at current prices?

You're deluded if you think most people are not taking out mortgages to
buy. Do you honestly think Joe Sixpack has 200k saved away?

> Whether a bank gives you money says nothing regarding the worth of the house
> but more about your credit risk.

Bollocks. If the bank are willing to lend Joe Sixpack a million pounds
to buy a two-bed terrace then two-bed terraces will cost a million
pounds. If the bank are only willing to lend him 50k to buy it, then
two-bed terraces will cost 50k.

Mark

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

Tumbleweed wrote:
> "Crowley" <> wrote in message
> news:
>
> >
> > Remove all the spin, speculation, misrepresentation, and irrelevency
> > from your posts and your basic argument comes down to : 'house prices
> > haven't crashed yet therefore they never will'.
> >
> > Now it doesn't take a genius to see the flaws in that, does it ?
> >
>
> Try snipping next time, please, must have been several hundred lines and
> then 4 of yours?

It's quality wot counts not length ;-)

> You asked what was different, I told you. You chose to ignore that and make
> something up, about my argument re house prices. I dont believe I have made
> an argument that house prices wont crash, I dont know whether they will or
> not.
>
> One day house prices will crash. That may be in 3 months, 3 years, 30 years
> or 300.
> But they will also remain stationary, slide, rise, zoom up, etc within the
> same timescales and neither you nor your proponents know _when_ that will
> be, which is the trick to prediction!
>
> So my argument is simply that your predictive skills are as good as a
> stopped watch. You continually post that they _will_ crash within a short
> time (by January 2007) and are continually shown be wrong.

Aah-em, how can I have been 'continually shown to be wrong' when we
haven't reached January 2007 yet ? It's only May 2006 on my watch.

BTW Did you see the front of todays Daily Mail ...........

"The country's most powerful banker (our Merv) also issued a veiled
warning to house-owners not to rely on values climbing indefinitely.
His judgment that current prices "seem remarkably high" raised the
spectre of a collapse which could plunge large numbers of families into
negative equity"

There's a lorra people read the Mail, almost as many as reads the Sun
apparently and sentiment is such a fickle thing.

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

In uk.finance Tumbleweed <> wrote:

> "M Holmes" <> wrote in message
> news:e3v5ov$k61$

>> Fannie Mae found two more accounting problems this week and gold
>> crossed 700 Dollars per ounce. The Japanese are talking about coming
>> off 0% rates very soon. All my markers for the end have been hit and
>> I'm just about to make my first prediction on timing:

>> Soon.

> Would you care to make a prediction for 'soon'? Because at the moment
> you are saying that you will make a prediction at an unspecified time
> re an unspecified event (definition of 'crash'?) that will occur at an
> undefined time.

Sorry, but a reading of the history of credit bubbles makes it very
clear that even when those doing rational analysis see that it's as
plain as the nose on the end of one's face that society is once more
caught up in a credit bubble, that theese things can last much longer
than anyone might expect. What is spottable are the common markers of a
bubble reaching its peak or starting to deflate.

For "soon" though, I suspect the US is at the peak right now and we're
starting to see signs of distressed borrowers. As expected, this is
hitting the housing markets in some cities where "flippers" are trying
to get out of their legal obligation to pay the remaining 90% on
completed properties that they now cannot sell. Several markets are
showing an increase of unsold houses which is a marker of "divergence"
seen at market tops.

I've long suspected that the UK is about a year behind the US in this
cycle and that'd put a top around early 2007. It's hard though to avoid
the suspicion that when Japanese and Chinese long-term rates start
rising, it won't hit us just as soon as it does the US. I guess we'll
see...

> Out of interest, when you make this prediction, what actions do you
> propose people take?

Each person has to take action based on their own circumstances. What is
clear from previous credit bubbles is that once it breaks, it's best not
be be holding debt and one would profit best from selling assets which
were inflated in price through the mass availability of credit, as soon
as possible because their price will fall as credit is withdrawn from
the masses and later is either settled or defaulted upon.

It doesn't hurt to hold gold either - provided that the state doesn't
decide to confiscate it in order to shore up its attempt to prevent
deflation by printing paper.

If I'm right though, we can all get a preview of what works by a careful
analysis of what happens in the US from here on in. They have all the
same problems: overindebted consumers who spend more than they earn;
overinflated property prices as a result of mass-availability of credit;
massive trade deficits due to overindebted consumers; overspending
government; potential currency problems.

The only specific prediction I've made that hasn't come to pass before
the bubble bursts is that of serious trouble in the derivatives markets.
I still find it very hard to believe that we won't see something at the
least on the order of LTCM. Fannie Mae has had its troubles,
but not (yet?) on that scale.

FoFP

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

In uk.finance wrote:

>> If interest rates rise significantly (most likely to try to protect a
>> falling pound) then that will cause problems.

> If you call a complete collapse of the housing market just a 'problem',
> yes. Personally I suspect the result will be more of a catastrophe
> which will take a generation to recover from.

Sure, but the generation after that won't have to go into a lifetime of
debt just to get a roof over their heads. The fact that they'll have
cash left over to enjoy themselves is what will power the next longwave
boom.

There's always a silver lining.

FoFP

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

<> wrote in message
news:
> Miss L. Toe wrote:
> > What do you call normal levels ???
>
> 8-10%.
>

On what basis is that normal.

If I had to specify 'normal' interest rates I would say:
inflation rate + growth rate + margin.

> > If interets rates drop people will be able to afford even bigger
mortgages
> > and house prices will go up.
>
> And if pigs could fly I'd be scraping pig crap off my car in the
> morning. Global rates are rising: there ain't a hope in hell of a rate
> cut in the UK.
>

I agree.

> In fact, mortgage rates have been increasing even while the BoE hold
> rates steady, because the cost of borrowing 'cheap money' abroad is
> increasing. The cheap money era is over.
>
> > If interest rates rise significantly (most likely to try to protect a
> > falling pound) then that will cause problems.
>
> If you call a complete collapse of the housing market just a 'problem',
> yes. Personally I suspect the result will be more of a catastrophe
> which will take a generation to recover from.
>

That depends on how quickly they fall and how much they fall.
A bit of controlled inflation could 'soon' put things right.

> > > Anyone buying a house at today's prices is betting on high wage
> > > inflation when British jobs are being outsourced en masse and other
> > > jobs are being replaced by cheap immigrants. To me, that's... brave.
> > No, anyone buying a house at todays prices is betting prices wont go
down
> > any time soon.
>
> Merely proving that you have no clue as to what drives house prices.
>

Supply/demand/availabilty of funds (cash or credit).
What do you think drives them ?

> > > Anyway, doesn't matter to me. There's no way I'm enslaving myself to
> > > the bank for the rest of my life just to buy a bloody two-bed
> > > ex-council terrace in a street full of chavs.
> > Doesn't matter to me either as my mortgage is paid off :-)
>
> So you don't care that when rates return to normal levels your house
> will be worth vastly less? Why not sell now and buy something bigger
> and better after the market crashes?

I dont care at all about the value of my house as it is a home not an
investment.
I would care about its value relative to other properties if I was thinking
of moving - which I am not.

I dont want to buy a bigger and better house as the one I have now is
perfectly adequate for my needs, and I dont want higher fuel bills and
council taxes.

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

<> wrote in message
news:
> Miss L. Toe wrote:
> > well, you sort of have to assume that both house prices and renatl will
> > increase with inflation - in the long term.
>
> Again, where is wage inflation going to come from to justify even
> current house prices when most jobs can be done just as well in China
> or India on a fraction of the salary?

What you haven't taken into account in that paragraph is the significant
adjustment to exchange rates that I predict will happen over the next 5
years or so.

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

On Thu, 11 May 2006 10:58:12 +0000 (UTC), M Holmes
<>

typed:
>In uk.finance abelard <> wrote:
>> On 10 May 2006 09:49:31 -0700, "Crowley" <>
>
>>>This house price bubble has been fed by the massive availability in
>>>recent years of cheap easy credit much of it borrowed by western banks
>>>from eastern banks at low rates of interest and then lent to borrowers
>>>over here at higher rates of interest.
>
>> so, you're claiming the loans are made in zlotys perhaps
>
>Nope, the swaps markets are efficient enough that the loans can be made
>in the home currency.
>
>>>This
>>>global liquidity is beginning to dry up.
>
>> evidence creepy?
>
>The fact that bondholders pretty much the world over are raising long
>term interest rates.

indeed.....

>>> Credit tightening is on the
>>>way. Would be buyers won't be able to raise the credit to pay these
>>>inflated prices and the bubble will burst.
>
>> why would your alleged 'bubble' 'burst' creepy if people couldn't raise
>> loans to pay 'inflated' prices?
>
>How much do you think most people could pay if they bought for cash?

not 100s of thousands for sure....but money doesn't work like that....
further, there is an equity element in much of the market...so the real
'price' is the remainder and the real calculation for most of the
'proletariat' is the servicing price of the 'loans'

>> you are a joy and amusement to watch....like an infant trying to impress
>> adults by using long words he doesn't understand....
>
>OK, let's see you pick on someone your own size...

delighted....
but poor old creepy will not learn until someone sits him down in his
seat and makes him do a little disinclined study and even encourages
him to crack a book or two....

you may feel it is a matter of cruel to be kind...
or you may think he should not be pontificating on a public group
where others less 'confident'/arrogant than hisself maybe misled.

atm there seem enuf around to assist in the tiresome, sisyphean and
very likely hopeless task....but then this item is cross posted to
buf (not the british union of fascists)

>> how has the carry trade 'poisoned' the international markets creepy?
>
>By flooding them with liquidity. Essentially we've been protected from
>inflation for a decade and a half by the deflations experienced by
>Japan and China. The liquidity used by them to fight deflation was
>recycled here through the carry trade and derivatives markets. We were
>protected from the inflationary results of this through global arbitrage
>of labour and goods.

ok...at least you are somewhere between plausible and convincing....
but more to the point, why do you suppose such mechanisms will 'suddenly'
halt...or that it is particularly 'a bad thing'

on almost a side issue...it's all very well to expect the $ to 'fall'
but the mercantalists of the far east ain't keen on such a game...you may
as well claim the far eastern currencies are being manipulated to keep
them artificially low....as to claim the $ or any western currency is
'high'...
much also depends on which currency you are relativising to which.....

the ppp of $ is mostly 'undervalued' relative to the exchange rate
relative to the western currencies...
meanwhile 'investors' are *reasonably* sane to build in risk premiums to
areas with unsafe 'law' and contract enforcement

>Check out any of Stephen Roach's articles in the last decade to get the
>supporting stats.

i'll have a look....
an immediate quick search doesn't throw up a site with his pieces....
have you any particular documents to recommend?

regards....

--
web site at www.abelard.org - news comment service, logic, economics
energy, education, politics, etc 1,552,396 document calls in year past
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------
all that is necessary for [] walk quietly and carry
the triumph of evil is that [] a big stick.
good people do nothing [] trust actions not words
only when it's funny -- roger rabbit
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

On Thu, 11 May 2006 11:56:43 +0000 (UTC), M Holmes
<>

typed:
>In uk.finance Tumbleweed <> wrote:
>
>> "M Holmes" <> wrote in message
>> news:e3v5ov$k61$
>
>>> Fannie Mae found two more accounting problems this week and gold
>>> crossed 700 Dollars per ounce. The Japanese are talking about coming
>>> off 0% rates very soon. All my markers for the end have been hit and
>>> I'm just about to make my first prediction on timing:
>
>>> Soon.
>
>> Would you care to make a prediction for 'soon'? Because at the moment
>> you are saying that you will make a prediction at an unspecified time
>> re an unspecified event (definition of 'crash'?) that will occur at an
>> undefined time.
>
>Sorry, but a reading of the history of credit bubbles makes it very
>clear that even when those doing rational analysis see that it's as
>plain as the nose on the end of one's face that society is once more
>caught up in a credit bubble, that theese things can last much longer
>than anyone might expect. What is spottable are the common markers of a
>bubble reaching its peak or starting to deflate.
>
>For "soon" though, I suspect the US is at the peak right now and we're
>starting to see signs of distressed borrowers. As expected, this is
>hitting the housing markets in some cities where "flippers" are trying
>to get out of their legal obligation to pay the remaining 90% on
>completed properties that they now cannot sell. Several markets are
>showing an increase of unsold houses which is a marker of "divergence"
>seen at market tops.
>
>I've long suspected that the UK is about a year behind the US in this
>cycle and that'd put a top around early 2007. It's hard though to avoid
>the suspicion that when Japanese and Chinese long-term rates start
>rising, it won't hit us just as soon as it does the US. I guess we'll
>see...

but what of it....the world is locally much richer than in the 30s and
you are now dealing with fiat currencies....
meanwhile in the last uk crash people did not starve....
they just pulled in their horns a little and variously adjusted....

>> Out of interest, when you make this prediction, what actions do you
>> propose people take?
>
>Each person has to take action based on their own circumstances. What is
>clear from previous credit bubbles is that once it breaks, it's best not
>be be holding debt and one would profit best from selling assets which
>were inflated in price through the mass availability of credit, as soon
>as possible because their price will fall as credit is withdrawn from
>the masses and later is either settled or defaulted upon.
>
>It doesn't hurt to hold gold either - provided that the state doesn't
>decide to confiscate it in order to shore up its attempt to prevent
>deflation by printing paper.

or flood the markets with their non-performing assets at a neat price

>If I'm right though, we can all get a preview of what works by a careful
>analysis of what happens in the US from here on in. They have all the
>same problems: overindebted consumers who spend more than they earn;
>overinflated property prices as a result of mass-availability of credit;
>massive trade deficits due to overindebted consumers; overspending
>government; potential currency problems.

that looks like a return to voodoobabble rather than analysis
the reality is the usa remains immensely powerful and wealthy

>The only specific prediction I've made that hasn't come to pass before
>the bubble bursts is that of serious trouble in the derivatives markets.
>I still find it very hard to believe that we won't see something at the
>least on the order of LTCM. Fannie Mae has had its troubles,
>but not (yet?) on that scale.

all of which have been met with hardly a ripple...
mainly by the sophistication and sane actions of the fed....

regards...

--
web site at www.abelard.org - news comment service, logic, economics
energy, education, politics, etc 1,552,396 document calls in year past
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------
all that is necessary for [] walk quietly and carry
the triumph of evil is that [] a big stick.
good people do nothing [] trust actions not words
only when it's funny -- roger rabbit
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

In uk.finance abelard <> wrote:
> On Thu, 11 May 2006 10:58:12 +0000 (UTC), M Holmes

>>> how has the carry trade 'poisoned' the international markets creepy?

>>By flooding them with liquidity. Essentially we've been protected
>>from inflation for a decade and a half by the deflations experienced
>>by Japan and China. The liquidity used by them to fight deflation was
>>recycled here through the carry trade and derivatives markets. We
>>were protected from the inflationary results of this through global
>>arbitrage of labour and goods.

> ok...at least you are somewhere between plausible and convincing....
> but more to the point, why do you suppose such mechanisms will
> 'suddenly' halt...or that it is particularly 'a bad thing'

Barring an absolute catastrophe it will not be sudden.

Historically it has been a Bad Thing for the majority of a population to
have wide access to credit. Sooner or later people wither forget the
risks, or haven't had examples of those risks in the adult lifetimes of
themselves or their parents. They then spend on credit like they'll
never have to pay it back. This always has very bad results.

Thus I thing it a Good Thing that such a denoument happen as soon as
possible. The longer it goes on, the worse the results will be.

>>Check out any of Stephen Roach's articles in the last decade to get
>>the supporting stats.

> i'll have a look.... an immediate quick search doesn't throw up a
> site with his pieces.... have you any particular documents to
> recommend?

The Prudentbear website should have more than a few in the archives.

FoFP

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

In uk.finance abelard <> wrote:

>>I've long suspected that the UK is about a year behind the US in this
>>cycle and that'd put a top around early 2007. It's hard though to avoid
>>the suspicion that when Japanese and Chinese long-term rates start
>>rising, it won't hit us just as soon as it does the US. I guess we'll
>>see...

> but what of it....the world is locally much richer than in the 30s and

Indeed.

> you are now dealing with fiat currencies....

That's certainly an added problem this time around.

> meanwhile in the last uk crash people did not starve....
> they just pulled in their horns a little and variously adjusted....

Short of the government going so far in printing that we get currency
repudiation, I don't expect people to starve.

>>If I'm right though, we can all get a preview of what works by a careful
>>analysis of what happens in the US from here on in. They have all the
>>same problems: overindebted consumers who spend more than they earn;
>>overinflated property prices as a result of mass-availability of credit;
>>massive trade deficits due to overindebted consumers; overspending
>>government; potential currency problems.

> that looks like a return to voodoobabble rather than analysis
> the reality is the usa remains immensely powerful and wealthy

An army marches on its stomach. If the rest of the world quits sending
the US two billion Dollars a day then they'll have to make cutbacks
elsewhere to supply the army, or bring 'em home.

If it's between a new SUV and a jeep for the Iraq forces, then as far as the
usual US consumer is concerned, the soldiers can walk. The end of that
is they'll be coming back to the US and Iraq can sort its own problems out.

FoFP


--
"The simple fact is that U.S. consumers have spent money like drunken
sailors. That is, if the drunken sailors had sold the U.S.S. Nimitz and
spent the proceeds in addition to their paychecks."
-- Frederick.J.Sheehan Juniour. 7/9/2001

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

On Thu, 11 May 2006 13:00:34 +0000 (UTC), M Holmes
<>

typed:
>In uk.finance abelard <> wrote:
>
>>>I've long suspected that the UK is about a year behind the US in this
>>>cycle and that'd put a top around early 2007. It's hard though to avoid
>>>the suspicion that when Japanese and Chinese long-term rates start
>>>rising, it won't hit us just as soon as it does the US. I guess we'll
>>>see...
>
>> but what of it....the world is locally much richer than in the 30s and
>
>Indeed.
>
>> you are now dealing with fiat currencies....
>
>That's certainly an added problem this time around.

or an added flexibility

>> meanwhile in the last uk crash people did not starve....
>> they just pulled in their horns a little and variously adjusted....
>
>Short of the government going so far in printing that we get currency
>repudiation, I don't expect people to starve.
>
>>>If I'm right though, we can all get a preview of what works by a careful
>>>analysis of what happens in the US from here on in. They have all the
>>>same problems: overindebted consumers who spend more than they earn;
>>>overinflated property prices as a result of mass-availability of credit;
>>>massive trade deficits due to overindebted consumers; overspending
>>>government; potential currency problems.
>
>> that looks like a return to voodoobabble rather than analysis
>> the reality is the usa remains immensely powerful and wealthy
>
>An army marches on its stomach. If the rest of the world quits sending
>the US two billion Dollars a day then they'll have to make cutbacks
>elsewhere to supply the army, or bring 'em home.

america is a major surplus supplier of food....
there are other options beside shipping the army home....

china can afford any sort of blockade far less than the us....
paper for gewgaws is not a bad option for china atm....

>If it's between a new SUV and a jeep for the Iraq forces, then as far as the
>usual US consumer is concerned, the soldiers can walk. The end of that
>is they'll be coming back to the US and Iraq can sort its own problems out.

all such options exist....
but the government has the power to requisition suvs esp if people start
getting silly...
the us government has the option of laying the realities on the line....

it pays no-one sane to mess with uncle sam....
uncle sam riled would start to make the buzzies of this world confront
a few very nasty realities....

far better for everyone that the world cooperates with rome...
serious wars will pay no-one....


imv most of the world leadership is not that irrational....

regards...

--
web site at www.abelard.org - news comment service, logic, economics
energy, education, politics, etc 1,552,396 document calls in year past
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------
all that is necessary for [] walk quietly and carry
the triumph of evil is that [] a big stick.
good people do nothing [] trust actions not words
only when it's funny -- roger rabbit
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"abelard" <> wrote in message
news:

> it pays no-one sane to mess with uncle sam....
> uncle sam riled would start to make the buzzies of this world confront
> a few very nasty realities....
> far better for everyone that the world cooperates with rome...
> serious wars will pay no-one....

Fraudelard's cowardly "philosophy" laid bare, Ladies and Gentlemen - suck up
to the bully, and do as you're told.

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

Chris X wrote:
> "abelard" <> wrote in message
> news:
>
> > it pays no-one sane to mess with uncle sam....
> > uncle sam riled would start to make the buzzies of this world confront
> > a few very nasty realities....
> > far better for everyone that the world cooperates with rome...
> > serious wars will pay no-one....
>
> Fraudelard's cowardly "philosophy" laid bare, Ladies and Gentlemen - suck up
> to the bully, and do as you're told.

Exactly. Fraudelard gave himself away with that one. Nowt but an
unprincipled yellow-bellied coward creeping to the big boy. He'd have
been an enthusiastic party member in Stalin's Russia and a cheerleader
for communism.

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

On Thu, 11 May 2006 14:36:22 +0100, "Chris X" <>

typed:
>"abelard" <> wrote in message
>news:
>
>> it pays no-one sane to mess with uncle sam....
>> uncle sam riled would start to make the buzzies of this world confront
>> a few very nasty realities....
>> far better for everyone that the world cooperates with rome...
>> serious wars will pay no-one....
>
>Fraudelard's cowardly "philosophy" laid bare, Ladies and Gentlemen - suck up
>to the bully, and do as you're told.

al-hakky...you have the 'mind' of a suicide bomber....
yet you stay in the uk....i wonder why...

--
web site at www.abelard.org - news comment service, logic, economics
energy, education, politics, etc 1,552,396 document calls in year past
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------
all that is necessary for [] walk quietly and carry
the triumph of evil is that [] a big stick.
good people do nothing [] trust actions not words
only when it's funny -- roger rabbit
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

On Thu, 11 May 2006 11:22:15 +0100, "Miss L. Toe"
<>

typed:
>
>"abelard" <> wrote in message

>> this may amuse you
>>
>
>>
>
>But all american houses are made of wood and don't last 50 years :-)

in which case the relevant comparison would be with rent....
ie, you are renting from the bank...

regards

--
web site at www.abelard.org - news comment service, logic, economics
energy, education, politics, etc 1,552,396 document calls in year past
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------
all that is necessary for [] walk quietly and carry
the triumph of evil is that [] a big stick.
good people do nothing [] trust actions not words
only when it's funny -- roger rabbit
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"abelard" <> wrote in message
news:
> On Thu, 11 May 2006 14:36:22 +0100, "Chris X" <>
>
> typed:
>>"abelard" <> wrote in message
>>news:
>>
>>> it pays no-one sane to mess with uncle sam....
>>> uncle sam riled would start to make the buzzies of this world confront
>>> a few very nasty realities....
>>> far better for everyone that the world cooperates with rome...
>>> serious wars will pay no-one....
>>
>>Fraudelard's cowardly "philosophy" laid bare, Ladies and Gentlemen - suck
>>up
>>to the bully, and do as you're told.
>
> al-hakky...you have the 'mind' of a suicide bomber....

LOL ! Even if I did, then better that than the "mind" of a spineless
collaborator, Fraudy !

> yet you stay in the uk....i wonder why...

To make sure you keep out :)

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Crowley" <> wrote in message
news:
>
> Chris X wrote:
>> "abelard" <> wrote in message
>> news:
>>
>> > it pays no-one sane to mess with uncle sam....
>> > uncle sam riled would start to make the buzzies of this world confront
>> > a few very nasty realities....
>> > far better for everyone that the world cooperates with rome...
>> > serious wars will pay no-one....
>>
>> Fraudelard's cowardly "philosophy" laid bare, Ladies and Gentlemen - suck
>> up
>> to the bully, and do as you're told.
>
> Exactly. Fraudelard gave himself away with that one. Nowt but an
> unprincipled yellow-bellied coward creeping to the big boy. He'd have
> been an enthusiastic party member in Stalin's Russia and a cheerleader
> for communism.

Wouldn't surprise me - most of these neo-con loons cut their political
"teeth" in such organisations :)

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

On Thu, 11 May 2006 15:09:08 +0100, "Chris X" <>

typed:
>
>"abelard" <> wrote in message
>news:
>> On Thu, 11 May 2006 14:36:22 +0100, "Chris X" <>
>>
>> typed:
>>>"abelard" <> wrote in message
>>>news:
>>>
>>>> it pays no-one sane to mess with uncle sam....
>>>> uncle sam riled would start to make the buzzies of this world confront
>>>> a few very nasty realities....
>>>> far better for everyone that the world cooperates with rome...
>>>> serious wars will pay no-one....
>>>
>>>Fraudelard's cowardly "philosophy" laid bare, Ladies and Gentlemen - suck
>>>up
>>>to the bully, and do as you're told.
>>
>> al-hakky...you have the 'mind' of a suicide bomber....
>
>LOL ! Even if I did, then better that than the "mind" of a spineless
>collaborator, Fraudy !

next you'll be advocating the repeal of the law of gravity....
your endless bluster is no substitute for action.....

>> yet you stay in the uk....i wonder why...
>
>To make sure you keep out :)
>
>

--
web site at www.abelard.org - news comment service, logic, economics
energy, education, politics, etc 1,552,396 document calls in year past
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------
all that is necessary for [] walk quietly and carry
the triumph of evil is that [] a big stick.
good people do nothing [] trust actions not words
only when it's funny -- roger rabbit
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"abelard" <> wrote in message
news:
> On Thu, 11 May 2006 15:09:08 +0100, "Chris X" <>
>
> typed:
>>
>>"abelard" <> wrote in message
>>news:
>>> On Thu, 11 May 2006 14:36:22 +0100, "Chris X" <>
>>>
>>> typed:
>>>>"abelard" <> wrote in message
>>>>news:
>>>>
>>>>> it pays no-one sane to mess with uncle sam....
>>>>> uncle sam riled would start to make the buzzies of this world confront
>>>>> a few very nasty realities....
>>>>> far better for everyone that the world cooperates with rome...
>>>>> serious wars will pay no-one....
>>>>
>>>>Fraudelard's cowardly "philosophy" laid bare, Ladies and Gentlemen -
>>>>suck
>>>>up
>>>>to the bully, and do as you're told.
>>>
>>> al-hakky...you have the 'mind' of a suicide bomber....
>>
>>LOL ! Even if I did, then better that than the "mind" of a spineless
>>collaborator, Fraudy !
>
> next you'll be advocating the repeal of the law of gravity....
> your endless bluster is no substitute for action.....

One of your weakest responses *ever*, Fraudy. And by Christ, you've made
some weak ones ...

>>> yet you stay in the uk....i wonder why...
>>
>>To make sure you keep out :)

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

On Thu, 11 May 2006 15:56:53 +0100, "Chris X" <>

typed:
>
>"abelard" <> wrote in message
>news:
>> On Thu, 11 May 2006 15:09:08 +0100, "Chris X" <>
>>
>> typed:
>>>
>>>"abelard" <> wrote in message
>>>news:
>>>> On Thu, 11 May 2006 14:36:22 +0100, "Chris X" <>
>>>>
>>>> typed:
>>>>>"abelard" <> wrote in message
>>>>>news:
>>>>>
>>>>>> it pays no-one sane to mess with uncle sam....
>>>>>> uncle sam riled would start to make the buzzies of this world confront
>>>>>> a few very nasty realities....
>>>>>> far better for everyone that the world cooperates with rome...
>>>>>> serious wars will pay no-one....
>>>>>
>>>>>Fraudelard's cowardly "philosophy" laid bare, Ladies and Gentlemen -
>>>>>suck
>>>>>up
>>>>>to the bully, and do as you're told.
>>>>
>>>> al-hakky...you have the 'mind' of a suicide bomber....
>>>
>>>LOL ! Even if I did, then better that than the "mind" of a spineless
>>>collaborator, Fraudy !
>>
>> next you'll be advocating the repeal of the law of gravity....
>> your endless bluster is no substitute for action.....
>
>One of your weakest responses *ever*, Fraudy. And by Christ, you've made
>some weak ones ...

run rabbit run

--
web site at www.abelard.org - news comment service, logic, economics
energy, education, politics, etc 1,552,396 document calls in year past
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------
all that is necessary for [] walk quietly and carry
the triumph of evil is that [] a big stick.
good people do nothing [] trust actions not words
only when it's funny -- roger rabbit
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

On 11 May 2006 04:25:54 -0700,

typed:
>Miss L. Toe wrote:
>> What do you call normal levels ???
>
>8-10%.

long range real rates are more like 2.5 to 3%...
the figure you quote includes inflation....

why do you call that level 'normal'?

regards.

--
web site at www.abelard.org - news comment service, logic, economics
energy, education, politics, etc 1,552,396 document calls in year past
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------
all that is necessary for [] walk quietly and carry
the triumph of evil is that [] a big stick.
good people do nothing [] trust actions not words
only when it's funny -- roger rabbit
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"abelard" <> wrote in message
news:
> On Thu, 11 May 2006 15:56:53 +0100, "Chris X" <>

>>>>>>news:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> it pays no-one sane to mess with uncle sam....
>>>>>>> uncle sam riled would start to make the buzzies of this world
>>>>>>> confront
>>>>>>> a few very nasty realities....
>>>>>>> far better for everyone that the world cooperates with rome...
>>>>>>> serious wars will pay no-one....
>>>>>>
>>>>>>Fraudelard's cowardly "philosophy" laid bare, Ladies and Gentlemen -
>>>>>>suck
>>>>>>up
>>>>>>to the bully, and do as you're told.
>>>>>
>>>>> al-hakky...you have the 'mind' of a suicide bomber....
>>>>
>>>>LOL ! Even if I did, then better that than the "mind" of a spineless
>>>>collaborator, Fraudy !
>>>
>>> next you'll be advocating the repeal of the law of gravity....
>>> your endless bluster is no substitute for action.....
>>
>>One of your weakest responses *ever*, Fraudy. And by Christ, you've made
>>some weak ones ...
>
> run rabbit run

In fact, your weakest ones are where you respond with tripe about rabbits,
which we have discovered to be your way of "dealing" with your defeat and
humiliation.

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

On Thu, 11 May 2006 12:55:46 +0000 (UTC), M Holmes
<>

typed:
>In uk.finance abelard <> wrote:
>> On Thu, 11 May 2006 10:58:12 +0000 (UTC), M Holmes
>
>>>> how has the carry trade 'poisoned' the international markets creepy?
>
>>>By flooding them with liquidity. Essentially we've been protected
>>>from inflation for a decade and a half by the deflations experienced
>>>by Japan and China. The liquidity used by them to fight deflation was
>>>recycled here through the carry trade and derivatives markets. We
>>>were protected from the inflationary results of this through global
>>>arbitrage of labour and goods.
>
>> ok...at least you are somewhere between plausible and convincing....
>> but more to the point, why do you suppose such mechanisms will
>> 'suddenly' halt...or that it is particularly 'a bad thing'
>
>Barring an absolute catastrophe it will not be sudden.
>
>Historically it has been a Bad Thing for the majority of a population to
>have wide access to credit.

how else are they to learn?

>Sooner or later people wither forget the
>risks, or haven't had examples of those risks in the adult lifetimes of
>themselves or their parents. They then spend on credit like they'll
>never have to pay it back.

often they will not have to pay it back

>This always has very bad results.

i can't fully accept that...it's 'educational'

>Thus I thing it a Good Thing that such a denoument happen as soon as
>possible. The longer it goes on, the worse the results will be.

your position looks over protective (patronising?) to me....
i would advocate far better education in economics starting in the infant
schools....

>>>Check out any of Stephen Roach's articles in the last decade to get
>>>the supporting stats.
>
>> i'll have a look.... an immediate quick search doesn't throw up a
>> site with his pieces.... have you any particular documents to
>> recommend?
>
>The Prudentbear website should have more than a few in the archives.

ok....i'll strive to get to it....

regards...

--
web site at www.abelard.org - news comment service, logic, economics
energy, education, politics, etc 1,552,396 document calls in year past
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------
all that is necessary for [] walk quietly and carry
the triumph of evil is that [] a big stick.
good people do nothing [] trust actions not words
only when it's funny -- roger rabbit
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

On Thu, 11 May 2006 16:52:31 +0100, "Chris X" <>

typed:
>"abelard" <> wrote in message
>news:
>> On Thu, 11 May 2006 15:56:53 +0100, "Chris X" <>
>
>>>>>>>news:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> it pays no-one sane to mess with uncle sam....
>>>>>>>> uncle sam riled would start to make the buzzies of this world
>>>>>>>> confront
>>>>>>>> a few very nasty realities....
>>>>>>>> far better for everyone that the world cooperates with rome...
>>>>>>>> serious wars will pay no-one....
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>Fraudelard's cowardly "philosophy" laid bare, Ladies and Gentlemen -
>>>>>>>suck
>>>>>>>up
>>>>>>>to the bully, and do as you're told.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> al-hakky...you have the 'mind' of a suicide bomber....
>>>>>
>>>>>LOL ! Even if I did, then better that than the "mind" of a spineless
>>>>>collaborator, Fraudy !
>>>>
>>>> next you'll be advocating the repeal of the law of gravity....
>>>> your endless bluster is no substitute for action.....
>>>
>>>One of your weakest responses *ever*, Fraudy. And by Christ, you've made
>>>some weak ones ...
>>
>> run rabbit run
>
>In fact, your weakest ones are where you respond with tripe about rabbits,
>which we have discovered to be your way of "dealing" with your defeat and
>humiliation.

keep running mister rabbit

--
web site at www.abelard.org - news comment service, logic, economics
energy, education, politics, etc 1,552,396 document calls in year past
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------
all that is necessary for [] walk quietly and carry
the triumph of evil is that [] a big stick.
good people do nothing [] trust actions not words
only when it's funny -- roger rabbit
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"abelard" <> wrote in message
news:
> On Thu, 11 May 2006 16:52:31 +0100, "Chris X" <>

>>>>>>>>> it pays no-one sane to mess with uncle sam....
>>>>>>>>> uncle sam riled would start to make the buzzies of this world
>>>>>>>>> confront
>>>>>>>>> a few very nasty realities....
>>>>>>>>> far better for everyone that the world cooperates with rome...
>>>>>>>>> serious wars will pay no-one....
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>Fraudelard's cowardly "philosophy" laid bare, Ladies and Gentlemen -
>>>>>>>>suck
>>>>>>>>up
>>>>>>>>to the bully, and do as you're told.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> al-hakky...you have the 'mind' of a suicide bomber....
>>>>>>
>>>>>>LOL ! Even if I did, then better that than the "mind" of a spineless
>>>>>>collaborator, Fraudy !
>>>>>
>>>>> next you'll be advocating the repeal of the law of gravity....
>>>>> your endless bluster is no substitute for action.....
>>>>
>>>>One of your weakest responses *ever*, Fraudy. And by Christ, you've made
>>>>some weak ones ...
>>>
>>> run rabbit run
>>
>>In fact, your weakest ones are where you respond with tripe about rabbits,
>>which we have discovered to be your way of "dealing" with your defeat and
>>humiliation.
>
> keep running mister rabbit

Erm .... see above !

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

abelard wrote:

> >> >> monetary expansion - gdp increase....
> >> >> currently ~11% in the uk....
> >> >
> >> >Duh, that's not inflation. I'll stick with RPI.
> >>
> >> that's your privilege
> >> i'm sure the gov't will be delighted
> >
> >I've just realised you're the clueless idiot I killfiled a few months ago, but you've
> >since changed your email address. Back in you go.
>
> ah diddums....
> you gonna run and hide behind the curtain.....

Only abelard could lose an argument with Andy pandy and crow about it.
Try the flowerpot men next abbo

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

abelard wrote:

> >> >> monetary expansion - gdp increase....
> >> >> currently ~11% in the uk....
> >> >
> >> >Duh, that's not inflation. I'll stick with RPI.
> >>
> >> that's your privilege
> >> i'm sure the gov't will be delighted
> >
> >I've just realised you're the clueless idiot I killfiled a few months ago, but you've
> >since changed your email address. Back in you go.
>
> ah diddums....
> you gonna run and hide behind the curtain.....

Only abelard could lose an argument with Andy pandy and crow about it.
Try the flowerpot men next abbo

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

On 11 May 2006 09:49:40 -0700, "the Good Captain"
<>

typed:
>
>abelard wrote:
>
>> >> >> monetary expansion - gdp increase....
>> >> >> currently ~11% in the uk....
>> >> >
>> >> >Duh, that's not inflation. I'll stick with RPI.
>> >>
>> >> that's your privilege
>> >> i'm sure the gov't will be delighted
>> >
>> >I've just realised you're the clueless idiot I killfiled a few months ago, but you've
>> >since changed your email address. Back in you go.
>>
>> ah diddums....
>> you gonna run and hide behind the curtain.....
>
>Only abelard could lose an argument with Andy pandy and crow about it.
>Try the flowerpot men next abbo

ok flower potman....bring it on.....

--
web site at www.abelard.org - news comment service, logic, economics
energy, education, politics, etc 1,552,396 document calls in year past
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------
all that is necessary for [] walk quietly and carry
the triumph of evil is that [] a big stick.
good people do nothing [] trust actions not words
only when it's funny -- roger rabbit
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

On 11 May 2006 09:47:12 -0700, "the Good Captain"
<>

typed:
>
>abelard wrote:
>
>> >> >> monetary expansion - gdp increase....
>> >> >> currently ~11% in the uk....
>> >> >
>> >> >Duh, that's not inflation. I'll stick with RPI.
>> >>
>> >> that's your privilege
>> >> i'm sure the gov't will be delighted
>> >
>> >I've just realised you're the clueless idiot I killfiled a few months ago, but you've
>> >since changed your email address. Back in you go.
>>
>> ah diddums....
>> you gonna run and hide behind the curtain.....
>
>Only abelard could lose an argument with Andy pandy and crow about it.
>Try the flowerpot men next abbo

ok flower potman....bring it on.....

--
web site at www.abelard.org - news comment service, logic, economics
energy, education, politics, etc 1,552,396 document calls in year past
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------
all that is necessary for [] walk quietly and carry
the triumph of evil is that [] a big stick.
good people do nothing [] trust actions not words
only when it's funny -- roger rabbit
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"abelard" <> wrote in message
news:
> On 11 May 2006 09:47:12 -0700, "the Good Captain"
> <>
>
> typed:
>>
>>abelard wrote:
>>
>>> >> >> monetary expansion - gdp increase....
>>> >> >> currently ~11% in the uk....
>>> >> >
>>> >> >Duh, that's not inflation. I'll stick with RPI.
>>> >>
>>> >> that's your privilege
>>> >> i'm sure the gov't will be delighted
>>> >
>>> >I've just realised you're the clueless idiot I killfiled a few months
>>> >ago, but you've
>>> >since changed your email address. Back in you go.
>>>
>>> ah diddums....
>>> you gonna run and hide behind the curtain.....
>>
>>Only abelard could lose an argument with Andy pandy and crow about it.
>>Try the flowerpot men next abbo
>
> ok flower potman....bring it on.....

He's a little rabbit who's running, running, running away from you, isn't
he, Mad Ol' Uncle Fraudelard ?!!

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Andy Pandy" <> wrote in message
news:
>
> "tim (back at home)" <> wrote in message
> news:
>> > Buying makes no sense if you are only going to live there for a short
>> > time
>> > frame.
>>
>> The classic way to get to the house that you want is to
>> trade up every 2-3 years.
>>
>> It's suprising the number of houses which are bought
>> by buyers that live in them for less than 2 years
>> (including both my first and third purchase).
>>
>> I think that the average between moves is seven, but
>> that must be increased by the people (like my dad) who
>> own the same house for over 50 years.
>>
>> It use to be the done thing, now I would suggest that
>> it is not sensible, but there would still seem to be people
>> doing it.
>
> It was never sensible financially, except for those periods during which
> house price
> inflation was unusually high (and you'd have needed your crystal ball to
> predict
> these periods).
>
> Historically house price inflation has averaged about the same as mortgage
> rates, so
> by trading up every few years you are simply giving your mortgage company
> all the
> increase in equity. Add in the higher costs of owning the bigger house,
> and you are
> losing. Add in the buying/selling costs, which will be very significant
> of you
> buy/sell every 2-3 years, and you are losing big time.
>
> Usually the quickest way to get the house you want is to pay as little as
> possible in
> mortgage for as long as possible and save.

This ignores the cost of living somewhere else.

When buying costs less than renting (which until very
recently it did by a large margin), buying the small house
that you can afford today and trading up as your income
increases in the cheapest way overall of owning the house
that you really want (the detached 4 bed with a third of
an acre garden).

Yes, of course trading up costs more than simply buying
the house that you want at step one, but most people
don't have the income to justify the required mortgage
when they first start work. The obtainable choice for
people starting on the housing ladder is small house or no
(owned) house, not big house or small house. Renting
until you can afford to buy the big house costs more.

tim

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"tim (back at home)" <> wrote in message
news:
> > It was never sensible financially, except for those periods during which
> > house price
> > inflation was unusually high (and you'd have needed your crystal ball to
> > predict
> > these periods).
> >
> > Historically house price inflation has averaged about the same as mortgage
> > rates, so
> > by trading up every few years you are simply giving your mortgage company
> > all the
> > increase in equity. Add in the higher costs of owning the bigger house,
> > and you are
> > losing. Add in the buying/selling costs, which will be very significant
> > of you
> > buy/sell every 2-3 years, and you are losing big time.
> >
> > Usually the quickest way to get the house you want is to pay as little as
> > possible in
> > mortgage for as long as possible and save.
>
> This ignores the cost of living somewhere else.

No it doesn't. Read the last paragraph above.

> When buying costs less than renting (which until very
> recently it did by a large margin), buying the small house
> that you can afford today and trading up as your income
> increases in the cheapest way overall of owning the house
> that you really want (the detached 4 bed with a third of
> an acre garden).

No it isn't. The cheapest way is to live in your first small house, and save until
you can afford the house you really want, instead of continually throwing money down
the drain in estate agent fees, stamp duty etc every few years.

The more houses you own between your first house and your dream house, the longer
it'll take you to get there (except in times of significantly higher than average
house price inflation).

> Yes, of course trading up costs more than simply buying
> the house that you want at step one, but most people
> don't have the income to justify the required mortgage
> when they first start work. The obtainable choice for
> people starting on the housing ladder is small house or no
> (owned) house, not big house or small house. Renting
> until you can afford to buy the big house costs more.

Who suggested renting?

If you want to get to house G, stay in house A until you can afford house G. If you
go there via houses B,C,D,E & F then it'll probably cost you much more and take you
much longer.

The "housing ladder" concept is only applicable when house price inflation is very
high. In normal times it's quicker to wait at the bottom and "jump" to the top!

--
Andy

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

On 10 May 2006 12:01:07 -0700, "allan tracy"
<> wrote:

>> Only until and unless the population drops dramatically (?bird flu), and the
>> supply/demand ratio changes.
>
>Wouldn't need anything too dramatic to occur just pen, paper and a
>rewrite of the planning laws to free up the countryside for
>development, basically what the Government is proposing.
>
>It's not the price of houses that's the issue it's the price of land
>and to have such high land prices in the 49th least crowded country in
>the World is just plain dumb. Especially, when so much agricultural
>land just sits there eating up subsidy.
>
>It also goes to show just how fragile the house price boom could really
>be when a simple change in regulation could bring the whole lot
>tumbling down.
>
>All inflation is bad for an economy and house price inflation is no
>different. House prices, truely left to the market place, should go
>down in real terms due to improvements in technology and building
>methods.

Not necessarily so. Houses, unlike most goods, are 'positional goods'.
That is, their value depends not just on what they are, but where they
are. As a result, houses in desirable locations are effectively
auctioned. Their price depends only on the disposable income of the
potential buyers, and has almost nothing to do with the cost of
construction

>This will never happen whilst the housing market remains so
>regulated but, with increasing inward migration required to keep the
>economy growing, the square now needs to be circled and whoever is in
>power expect that to happen very soon.
>
>Our attitude to buying a house should be no different to that when
>buying a car or white goods. It's not an investment decision but a
>consumer decision.

This isn't an either/or situation

--

cheers

matt

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

On 10 May 2006 09:37:24 -0700, wrote:

>> A house is worth what someone will pay for it.
>
>No. A house is worth _what a bank will lend someone_ to pay for it.
>
>If King was worried about debts, he shouldn't have dropped UK interest
>rates to insanely low levels. It's far too late now, the damage is
>done... debts are vast, houses are probably the most overvalued on the
>planet, inflation is only being kept down by outsourcing jobs and
>shipping in vast numbers of cheap immigrants to work on minimum wage or
>less, and global interest rates are rising.

These aren't even connected phenomena!

>He and Brown have utterly devastated the British economy: it will take
>a generation to recover.

You really haven't got a clue, have you?

--

cheers

matt

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

abelard wrote: -

>ok flower potman....bring it on.....

sorry silly me, how could the weed scrap with the Flowerpot men

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Andy Pandy" <> wrote in message
news:
>
> "Chris.S" <> wrote in message
> news:44625c44$0$9230$
> > > So what? The point is that *anything* can be overvalued
> > >, whether there is a real
> > > asset behind it or not.
> > > If something triples in price over 10 years, then it could
> > > half in price over the next 10 years. Look up what happened in Tokyo
> > since the late
> > > 80's if you don't believe the same sort of thing can happen to
property
> > prices as
> > > shares.
> >
> > If you are comparing shares to houses your not going to make a point as
one
> > is purely for speculation and the other is used as a place to live.
> > shares will have a market price, it's price usually reflects the
performance
> > of the business.
> > Houses have many variables that effect price, one of which is how much a
> > particular buyer wants it
>
> If people only ever considered the question "is living in this house worth
the price
> I'm paying" when buying a house, then I'd agree.

I would say that is what they do, or do you think they blindly just put in
the highest bid regardless?

> But they often don't, they often think "this house will go up in price, so
it doesn't
> matter whether it's worth the price I'm paying, because I'm not losing the
money, I'm
> investing it". Which is pretty similar to the reason they buy shares.

The vast majority don't think this I would say, most are more interested in
is it a good house in a good area near the usual facilities, of course if it
is it is likely to be a increasing asset also.

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

<> wrote in message
news:
> Chris.S wrote:
> > A house is worth what you are willing to pay for it, you then may or may
not
> > need to go to a bank where they may or may not agree to give you the
money.
>
> And, uh, exactly what fraction of people are buying houses for cash,
> particularly at current prices?

I am not suggesting they are.
What I am saying is there is a difference as to what a person buying a house
thinks it is worth and what the bank thinks.
The bank look at worth from an entirely different and single view.

> > Whether a bank gives you money says nothing regarding the worth of the
house
> > but more about your credit risk.
>
> Bollocks. If the bank are willing to lend Joe Sixpack a million pounds
> to buy a two-bed terrace then two-bed terraces will cost a million
> pounds. If the bank are only willing to lend him 50k to buy it, then
> two-bed terraces will cost 50k.

I think you are not understanding the point.
If a bank lent a million for a two bed property it, by itself, wouldn't mean
it is worth that, which is my point.

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Chris.S" <> wrote in message
news:4463c3a6$0$9264$

>
> I think you are not understanding the point.
> If a bank lent a million for a two bed property it, by itself, wouldn't
> mean
> it is worth that, which is my point.
>

Of course it would. That is why they do valuations beforehand, to check they
arent exposed more than they wish to be.

--
Tumbleweed

email replies not necessary but to contact use;
tumbleweednews at hotmail dot com

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Tumbleweed" <> wrote in message
news:
> "Chris.S" <> wrote in message
> news:4463c3a6$0$9264$
>
> >
> > I think you are not understanding the point.
> > If a bank lent a million for a two bed property it, by itself, wouldn't
> > mean
> > it is worth that, which is my point.
> >
>
> Of course it would. That is why they do valuations beforehand, to check
they
> arent exposed more than they wish to be.

Valuations for their view in regard to what they are lending.
I said at the start, a house is worth what someone will pay for it.

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued and bankrupcies risk becoming large so

"Chris.S" <> wrote in message
news:4463d3ef$0$9239$
>
> "Tumbleweed" <> wrote in message
> news:
>> "Chris.S" <> wrote in message
>> news:4463c3a6$0$9264$
>>
>> >
>> > I think you are not understanding the point.
>> > If a bank lent a million for a two bed property it, by itself, wouldn't
>> > mean
>> > it is worth that, which is my point.
>> >
>>
>> Of course it would. That is why they do valuations beforehand, to check
> they
>> arent exposed more than they wish to be.
>
> Valuations for their view in regard to what they are lending.
> I said at the start, a house is worth what someone will pay for it.
>

Its only worth that to the person who is doing the paying. Thats a trivial
definition of 'worth'. Most people would use what its market value is to
mean 'what its worth', eg market value being a general consensus.

Example. I offer 500k for house. I go to the Bank for a mortgage who carry
out a valuation. The valuation says 'this house is worth 250k'. The bank
will not lend you more than (say) 80% of 250k. It might be worth 500k to
you, but to the bank and everyone else its only worth 250k. So in the sense
you use, worth needs to be qualified to whom you are referring.

--
Tumbleweed

email replies not necessary but to contact use;
tumbleweednews at hotmail dot com

Re: King sounds warning over economy. House prices overvalued andbankrupcies risk becoming large soc

tim (back at home) wrote:

> "Andy Pandy" <> wrote in message
> news:
>
>>"tim (back at home)" <> wrote in message
>>news:
>>
>>>>Buying makes no sense if you are only going to live there for a short
>>>>time
>>>>frame.
>>>
>>>The classic way to get to the house that you want is to
>>>trade up every 2-3 years.
>>>
>>>It's suprising the number of houses which are bought
>>>by buyers that live in them for less than 2 years
>>>(including both my first and third purchase).
>>>
>>>I think that the average between moves is seven, but
>>>that must be increased by the people (like my dad) who
>>>own the same house for over 50 years.
>>>
>>>It use to be the done thing, now I would suggest that
>>>it is not sensible, but there would still seem to be people
>>>doing it.
>>
>>It was never sensible financially, except for those periods during which
>>house price
>>inflation was unusually high (and you'd have needed your crystal ball to
>>predict
>>these periods).
>>
>>Historically house price inflation has averaged about the same as mortgage
>>rates, so
>>by trading up every few years you are simply giving your mortgage company
>>all the
>>increase in equity. Add in the higher costs of owning the bigger house,
>>and you are
>>losing. Add in the buying/selling costs, which will be very significant
>>of you
>>buy/sell every 2-3 years, and you are losing big time.
>>
>>Usually the quickest way to get the house you want is to pay as little as
>>possible in
>>mortgage for as long as possible and save.
>
>
> This ignores the cost of living somewhere else.
>
> When buying costs less than renting (which until very
> recently it did by a large margin), buying the small house
> that you can afford today and trading up as your income
> increases in the cheapest way overall of owning the house
> that you really want (the detached 4 bed with a third of
> an acre garden).
>
> Yes, of course trading up costs more than simply buying
> the house that you want at step one, but most people
> don't have the income to justify the required mortgage
> when they first start work. The obtainable choice for
> people starting on the housing ladder is small house or no
> (owned) house, not big house or small house. Renting
> until you can afford to buy the big house costs more.
>
> tim
>
>


The correct decision requires a judgment of the interest rate and
housing market. If you can manage that it will be easy for you to make
so much money that you can live in any way that you want.